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Spotlight - TE Owen Daniels, Houston Texans

Posted on 8/23, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

Owen Daniels has to be tired of hearing about his lack of scoring. In a season that most would consider a smashing success, fantasy owners lament Daniels inability to find the end zone. Despite catching 70 passes for 862 yards, Daniels 'only' scored 2 TDs. But those complaining really are being greedy because Daniels finished as the 6th best fantasy TE last year despite being drafted in the late rounds of most leagues. He was one of THE value picks at the position.

Entering his 4th year, Daniels is a good bet to increase his TD output this season.

Jason Witten scored 1 TD in 2006, he scored 7 in 2007
Tony Gonzalez scored 2 TDs in 2005, he scored 5 in 2006
Shannon Sharpe scored 2 TDs in 1992, he scored 9 in 1993

As long as Daniels is healthy, and his role in the Texans offense remains intact, there's no reason to think he won't bounce back with 4-6 scores.

Owen Daniels was 2nd at his position with 430 yards after the catch (YAC). Only Chris Cooley had more yards after the catch than Daniels, a testament to what an athlete he is. Daniels gets off the line well, but he's got the power after the catch to shed tacklers, something that's vitally important in Houston's West Coast offense.

Daniels is sure-handed. The former Wisconsin Badger caught 69% of his targets last year, playing a big role in Matt Schaub's breakthrough season.

The Texans don't have depth at wide receiver. Andre Johnson is among the elite, and Kevin Walter is a solid WR2, but the Texans don't have anyone else who would push them to use more 3-WR and 4-WR sets at Daniels' expense.

Daniels is a game-breaker. Did you know Daniels had 7 receptions of 25+ yards last season? That may not sound like a lot, until you consider Andre Johnson also had 7. Dwayne Bowe only had 8. And Randy Moss had 10.

The fly in the ointment is Matt Schaub's health. Matt Schaub is a talented passer but he's only played 11 games in each of the last two seasons. When Sage Rosenfels was in the lineup, Daniels wasn't as productive. In 10 games with Rosenfels, Daniels caught 30 receptions for 322 yards and 2 scores, which projects to 48 receptions for 515 yards and 3 TDs over a full season. That would be a huge disappointment. The great news is that if Schaub were to stay healthy for 16 games, Daniels could push for 1,000 yards, but if he misses more than a few games (or strategically important games in your fantasy schedule), things could get dicey.

Positives

• Daniels is a sure-handed pass catcher who always manages to get yards after initial contact, he's a QB's best friend
• 133 receptions in the last two seasons ranks 6th, only two catches behind Dallas Clark and Antonio Gates
• The Texans have little depth at WR, Daniels should be in the lineup in almost any formation

Negatives

• Despite rivaling the other elite TEs in receptions and yards the last two seasons, his TD total pales in comparison
• Matt Schaub has trouble staying on the field, and Daniels hasn't performed nearly as well in his stead

Final Thoughts

Owen Daniels is a very good TE, but his prowess is potentially obscured by the depth at the position this year. I would rather have him than Kellen Winslow, who generally goes higher, but think he's otherwise properly slotted in the TE7-TE8 range. If your draft strategy doesn't call for an early pick at TE, Daniels is one of the last of a tier of guys I would feel comfortable starting every week. In PPR leagues, the difference between him and someone like Dallas Clark isn't as pronounced as most think.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

rzrback77:
Owen Daniels has great potential for the 09 campaign. His targets, catches, and yard per catch have improved in every year of his three year career. I think that Schaub and Houston are poised for improvement and I also think that Daniels is the best receiving option after Andre Johnson so he should continue to be heavily targeted. His current ADP of TE8 and 81 overall seems reasonable.

Chicago Hooligan:
If Schaub doesn't miss games with injury again, Daniels will have a monster season. He's already mad about his contract status and will prove he deserves to be paid - and not because it's a "contract year" but simply because he is so talented. Plus Houston's offense will still have to score and throw a lot to win games.

Rosenfels didn't hit Daniels with many passes, so assuming Schaub plays every game, I like OD's catches to jump by 12-15. His TDs were flukily (that's a word, right) low last year. Seared into my memory is the one he fumbled away against the Packers... yeah, that cost me a playoff game.

Owen Daniels Projections