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Spotlight - WR Jerricho Cotchery, New York Jets

Posted on 7/30, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

Jerricho Cotchery was a popular sleeper pick last year. After steady growth in each of his first four seasons, the addition of QB Brett Favre was supposed to vault Cotchery into the Top 15-20 at his position. Considering he caught 82 passes for 1,130 yards in 2007 with Chad Pennington and Kellen Clemens splitting time, it was reasonable to think 90+ catches and 1,200 yards were possible.

But things didn't go according to plan.

Despite starting all 16 games, Cotchery only caught 71 receptions for 858 yards and 5 TDs. He had just one 100-yard game and scored in only four matchups. For a fantasy owner who kept him in the lineup, he was a detriment far more weeks than he was an asset.

Because of his subpar showing, and the fact either Kellen Clemens or rookie Mark Sanchez will be throwing passes in New York, Cotchery's draft stock has fallen. He's currently being drafted 31st among receivers and 86th overall. The question we need to ask ourselves is whether Cotchery is capable of being more than a middling NFL starter.

Let's start with the good news...

1. Cotchery is in line for an inordinate number of targets -- Cotchery is the only proven WR on the roster, and as a result he and TE Dustin Keller should be assured a steady diet of targets. In fantasy football, success is all about ability and opportunity, and Cotchery is going to get plenty of opportunities

2. He catches almost everything thrown his way -- Since 2004, there have been 136 WRs with 100 or more passing targets. Cotchery's 64% catch conversion rate is 19th among that group and he ranks 6th among WRs with 300+ targets. In other words, if the ball is thrown his way, he's probably coming down with a catch

3. He can generate yards after the catch -- The Jets offense isn't predicated on YAC like a traditional West Coast offense, but any time a receiver can make yards after the ball is in his hands it's a good thing. Cotchery has a career YAC of around 5; which puts him solidly among the top 12-15 receivers playing today

4. His current ADP greatly reduces the risk of drafting him -- At WR30, you don't have to bet on Cotchery breaking out. Let's remember that in three seasons as a full-time starter, Cotchery has finished 23rd, 25th and 30th; so his ADP assumes he'll merely match his worst season

Now let's talk about the concerns...

1. He's not explosive -- Cotchery has averaged 12.5 yards per catch in his career and isn't a burner. Cotchery doesn't pick up yards in huge chunks, and has only scored 13 TDs in 75 games (48 as a starter)

2. The QB situation is less-than-ideal -- Either rookie Mark Sanchez or inexperience Kellen Clemens are going to be under center, and it's hard to expect the Jets to put up big passing numbers as a result. Typically rookie QBs struggle no matter what Matt Ryan may have done last year, and Sanchez has looked lost at times in OTAs

3. The Jets aren't going to throw the ball a lot -- New HC Rex Ryan comes over from Baltimore and is going to build this team around the same attacking style of defense he ran with the Ravens. If he's successful (and he does have the pieces in place, in my view), that means the Jets will win games by stopping the opposition and not screwing up on offense. With Thomas Jones, Leon Washington and Shonn Greene in the backfield, the Jets should be in position to grind out a lot of 10-7 games

So how do we break the tie?...pay attention to who wins the QB battle

The pros and cons seem relatively balanced, but there's one bit of data that may sway you into the Pro Cotchery camp. While conventional wisdom suggests Kellen Clemens isn't a great QB, the fact is Cotchery played quite well with Clemens under center. They appeared in 10 games together in 2007, and the numbers may surprise you:

• 5.4 catches per game
• 80.7 yards per game

If you pro rate those numbers over 16 games, it's an impressive haul:

• 86 receptions
• 1,291 yards

The one concern would be TD production. Cotchery only scored 1 TD with Clemens throwing the ball, but given his ADP, a 85-catch, 1,200-yard season with only a handful of TDs would be MORE than enough to draft him.

If Sanchez starts the majority of the season, I would temper expectations. He still should approximate a Top 25-30 WR in that scenario, if for no other reason than opportunity. But if Clemens wins (and keeps) the job, Cotchery has a great chance of putting up much better numbers than your league mates expect.

Positives

• Cotchery is the clear cut WR1 and should see plenty of targets
• Cotchery is a crisp route runner who catches nearly everything thrown his way
• Cotchery has enjoyed his best yardage and catch totals playing with Kellen Clemens

Negatives

• Cotchery isn't a game breaker, and has never finished in the Top 20 despite starting for three full seasons
• The Jets aren't going to ask their QBs to win many games, as long as the defense plays up to Rex Ryan's expectations
• Cotchery has struggled in spite of having Laveranues Coles lined up opposite him, will he struggle even more in 2009 now that opposing defenses can key on him?

Final Thoughts

Cotchery isn't the easiest player to get a handle on. He's going to receive a large percentage of the Jets targets, but the Jets probably aren't going to throw the ball a lot. He's put up solid yardage totals with Kellen Clemens, but that's a small sample size and we have no idea if Clemens is going to beat out Sanchez. Cotchery has started 48 games in his career, yet we've never seen an indication that he's anything more than a complementary receiver. So long as you can draft Cotchery at his projected ADP, it's hard to argue against it, particularly in PPR leagues. He obviously has significant upside if things fell right, but I wouldn't count on it. Figure him for another Top 25-30 season, and be grateful if he gives you more.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

mlball77:
With Coles now in Cinci, I like Cotchery's odds of putting up solid numbers. While it is true that a rookie QB (Sanchez) might lead to some inconsistencies in the passing game, I think that if Sanchez gets the nod this season, he might lock onto Cotchery as his main weapon in the air. So I don't see a rookie QB as being a big negative for Cotchery necessarily. My bigger concern is NYJ's potential shift to a more run dominant offense... this is more limiting to Cotchery, in my view.

fightingillini:
Not as high on Cotchery as I have been in the past. A lot will depend on his chemistry with Sanchez. NYJ will be a run first team, and I expect some growing pains with Sanchez at QB. Could be a guy that you can trade for on the cheap after a few games.

Just Win Baby:
It seems that the Jets may try to emulate what Baltimore did last year, at least to some degree. Three talented RBs, a run first offense, a rookie QB, and a strong defense make for a number of apparent similarities.

So Derrick Mason might be a good comparison. Prior to last season, Mason had been starting in Baltimore for 3 seasons. He had 257/2910/10 receiving in 47 games over that span, which averages to 87/985/3 (11.3 ypr) over 16 games. Enter rookie QB Flacco last season, and Mason had 80/1037/5 (13.0 ypr) in a resurgent performance at age 34, even though Baltimore was #30 in pass attempts and there was no other strong receiving threat on the team.

Cotchery has been starting for 3 seasons, during which time he had 235/2949/13 (12.5 ypr) in 47 games, very similar to Mason's first 3 years in Baltimore. Could Cotchery have a similarly improved performance this year? I think so.

rzrback77:
I see several warning flags for Jerricho Cotchery in 09. There is the fact that he is now the #1 WR for the Jets and he has previously been the complementary WR or at best the 1B option. Will he be capable of getting separation facing the top CB and potentially occasional double teams. He is similar to TJ Housh in this situation, except he is staying with the same team. Or is he? The Jets have a new head coach, a new OC, a new QB, and three capable running backs. Yikes, that seems to be several additional question marks.

I think that all of these factors will play a role in a likely decrease of opportunities for Cotchery and I think the new and possibly rookie QB will play the biggest role. Ryan and Flacco's successful rookie years have caused most to forget the lack of production by rookie QBs, especially those that left college after only one year of starting.

Had not noticed, but in reviewing Cotchery's past three years, he finished WR23, WR25, and WR30. I am surprised that his ADP is WR30, as I expected higher. However, I still think that he will struggle to perform to that level.

Jerricho Cotchery Projections