All Spotlights • Marques Colston Player Page • NO Projections • WR Projections • WR Rankings • NO Team Report

Spotlight - WR Marques Colston, New Orleans Saints

Posted on 8/18, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

I’m in the minority on Marques Colston.

On average, the staff at Footballguys has Colston ranked WR10, a solid but unspectacular fantasy starter that should probably be drafted in the 3rd or 4th round. I, on the other hand, have him ranked 5th just behind the “Big 4” of Randy Moss, Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson and Andre Johnson.

For those who are fans of tiering, I view this year’s fantasy receivers in the following manner:

Tier 1

Larry Fitzgerald
Randy Moss
Calvin Johnson
Andre Johnson

Tier 2

Marques Colston
Greg Jennings
Roddy White

Tier 3

Dwayne Bowe
Steve Smith
Reggie Wayne
Chad Ochocinco
Anquan Boldin

Tier 4

Terrell Owens
Braylon Edwards
Wes Welker
Brandon Marshall
Bernard Berrian
DeSean Jackson
T.J. Houshmandzadeh

I’m firmly convinced that the only thing separating my enthusiasm for Colston from others’ slightly less optimistic approach is his health. Last offseason, Colston had his knee scoped, but there were no known problems. Then he hurt his thumb in Week One, requiring surgery. He missed Weeks 2-5, and was limited (in a bandage) for a few weeks after that. A lot of owners who drafted him to anchor their lineups, were likely suffering through the start of the season. Colston made a strong second half comeback (more on that later), but then blindsided fantasy owners in January when it was revealed he had microfracture surgery to repair a small hole in his knee.

Microfracture surgery has severe negative connotations among fantasy owners, but should it? It wasn’t long ago that a torn ACL was a fantasy death sentence. But as the procedure became more refined, and the rehabilitation processes were formalized, it became a far more manageable injury. Now players can be back within a few months of a torn ACL, and are usually back 100% in 8-10 months tops. It’s my view that microfracture surgery is following a similar arc. A few years ago this was considered an experimental, last resort kind of surgery. But today, it’s something that great orthopedic surgeons have perfected. The prognosis for recovery today is MUCH better than the prognosis ever five years ago.

While I understand some skepticism, let’s remember Colston has returned to practice and hasn’t been limited. He was working out with the team in June OTAs, and has been an active part of training camp and preseason practice. While the team is going to limit his reps in preseason game action for precautionary reasons, there’s absolutely no indication Colston is anything less than 100%.

If you don’t’ trust his recovery, you’re obviously not going to draft him at his ADP. But if you are willing to take his recovery at face value, there are plenty of reasons to think he could be a Top 5 fantasy receiver.

1) Drew Brees is the best fantasy passer not named Tom Brady - No QB has more fantasy points than Brees over the last three years, and Brees is coming off a 5,000-yard passing season in spite of playing without Colston for a portion of it.
2) Colston is Brees’ favorite target (when healthy) - Colston has been targeted 346 times in 41 games, or 8.44 times per game. Over a full 16-game season, that equates to 135 times and still understates things considering that Colston didn’t start a handful of games last year.
3) When he’s played, Colston has been a fantasy stud - Colston has 11 100-yard games in 32 starts and has 24 TDs in 41 appearances. On a per game basis, Colston ranks 8th among WRs in fantasy points. Adjusting for games started, he’s been a Top 5 producer.
4) Colston is young and still refining his skill set - Colston burst onto the scene as a rookie, but was completely off most people’s radar because of his collegiate pedigree. Playing for small Hofstra, most had no idea how good Coslton really was. Even though he’s already a star, he’ll be the first to say he’s still learning how to play the position at the NFL level. Entering his 4th season, Colston should still be on an upward trajectory
5) The 2nd half of last season foreshadows what to expect in 2009 - As we’ve established, Colston got off to a slow start last year because of a broken finger. But upon his return to the starting lineup in Week 10, everything came together:

• 42 receptions
• 678 yards
• 16.1 yards per reception
• 5 TDs

Projected over 16 games, we’re looking at an 84-catch, 1,356 yard, 10 TD season. To me, that’s his baseline this year. As you'll see in my projections below, I apply a slight uptick to his projected catch total, but think he won't average 16 yards per reception (regress a bit to his career averages). I've also knocked a TD off simply because the Saints spread the ball around and have other viable targets.

Positives

• Colston is the top receiver in the league's best passing offense (or second best if you expect New England to resemble its 2007 form)
• He's been an elite fantasy WR1 when in the lineup, and has shown steady growth in each of his three seasons
• His ADP is slightly below that of other elite WR1s

Negatives

• A broken finger last year and microfracture surgery this year makes him a riskier bet than the other fantasy WR1s
• Brees is the master of spreading the ball around, it's conceivable Colston could have long stretches of mediocrity sandwiched between monster weeks

Final Thoughts

I'm not going to convince you his knees are fine. If you're worried about the microfracture, you're not going to draft him as WR5 or WR10 for that matter. But if you appreciate that he's practiced during camp and by all accounts is 100%, then you start realizing the value he potentially represents. You can draft Colston a round or two later than the other elite wideouts, which gives you a rare chance to draft value in the early rounds. I'm not going to argue against anyone who prefers Reggie Wayne or Greg Jennings or Steve Smith. But, for my money, I would rather have Colston than all but the Big Four and, possibly, Roddy White.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

bigmiiiike:
I feel like the FF community forgets just how young Colston is, and how his production completely bucks the trend the young WR learning curve. Having a QB like Drew Brees doesn't hurt. When I see someone project 80 catches, 1100 yards, 8 TDs, I just don't understand. Are injuries being accounted for (I assume not because they give him 80 catches)? He's entering his 4th year, and if we look at his previous numbers there is no reason this guy should not continue to get better (barring injury of course):

Rookie year: 14 games played, 70, 1038, 8
Year 2: 16 GP, 98, 1202, 11
*Year 3: 11 GP, 47, 760, 5

*But, this year's stats are misleading. Let's break down his 2008:
- If we assume he came back healthy in Week 8, then in the remaining 9 games, he had 44 catches, 734 yards, and 5 TDs, or on a per game level: 4.9 catches, 81.5 yards, .56 TDs. These numbers are just okay, but I'm a firm believer that Colston wasn't really back up to speed until around week 13.
- If we assume he was healthy from week 13 onward, over those last five games, he produced: 31 catches, 438 yards, and 4 TDs, or 5.17 catches, 87.6 yards, and .8 TDs per game. What's arguably more important than those numbers, and the reason I don't think he was "healthy" until Week 13, is because his targets shot up to 12, 8, 12, 12, and 12 respectively over those last 5 games. If Brees is targeting him like that (like he was for almost the entire 2007 and 2nd half of 2006 seasons), then I'll use that as my barometer for what to expect for 2009.

I think Colston moves into the elite class of WRs this year. The NO passing game is too good for a guy this talented and physically gifted to not continue the upward progression and development path he was on over his career thus far. The writing is on the wall, similar to Andre Johnson entering last year's draft. You could get AJ in the 3rd last year, much like you can get Colston this year. Everyone who takes Roddy White, Greg Jennings, Marshall, Welker, etc. over him will be very disappointed.

rzrback77:
I enjoy watching the Saints and their awesome offense. But, I believe that the number of pass attempts and the passing yardage is in for a significant decline in 09. The first reason is simply that they passed 635 times last year for 5,069 yards. That is a very high number of attempts and yards. Simple math suggests a decline, but there is also the fact that both Reggie Bush and Deuce McAlister missed a lot of time last year. Deuce is gone, but they still have Bush and Thomas and they will run the ball and pass to their backs more than they did a year ago.

I know that it is going to be difficult to believe, but their defense should be much better this year. That alone will account for less pass attempts. I think that their team will be improved and their offense will not be needed as badly as the past few years. In addition to all these reasons, the Saints have several solid WRs, TEs, and pass catching RBs. Their simply will be more distribution this year.

Lance Moore developed into a solid WR and an excellent red zone target a year ago and he is expected back in training camp. Jeremy Shockey did not catch a TD pass in all of 08 and he will this year. Henderson was resigned and he is an excellent down field target that is good for a few long TDs. Robert Meacham showed a little and then there is Adrian Arrington, who excelled in preseason 08.

I expect less of a passing pie in 09 and will be surprised to see Colston increase his targets. All of this doesn't even include the fact that he has missed seven games in his short three year career and is coming off micro-fracture surgery in January and he has a current ADP of WR10 and 27 overall.

Masked Vigilante:
In the final 8 games after his injury and bye week, Colston put up 42-678-5

Over a 16 game span that would be 84-1356-10 TD. I think its certainly reasonable for him to approach those numbers this year.

Marques Colston Projections