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Spotlight - QB Matt Cassel, Kansas City Chiefs

Posted on 7/29, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

A lot of fantasy owners are hell bent on waiting until the middle of their draft to target the quarterback position. The logic being that very little separates a dozen or so passers each year and you can get by with a serviceable passer much easier than you can bargain hunting at the RB and WR positions. It's THOSE guys who are probably going to be scrutinizing Matt Cassel's fantasy prospects.

According to the latest ADP data, Cassel is being drafted 14th among QBs, and 92nd overall. He's sandwiched in between Carson Palmer (QB12), Ben Roethlisberger (QB13), Eli Manning (QB15) and Matt Hasselbeck (QB16). In the context of looking for a solid BACKUP fantasy QB, I'm fine with Cassel and his draft position. But as a guy you're targeting to be your surprise starter? I need to see A LOT more before I'm convinced.

BY now we all know Cassel's unlikely rags to riches story...

• Cassel goes to USC but never sees the field thanks to Matt Leinart and Carson Palmer
• The Patriots, ever the deep QB scouts, draft him in the 7th round
• Cassel quietly moves into the QB2 spot behind All World Tom Brady
• Brady gets hurt, inexplicably Matt Cassel will champion the league's best offense after not starting a game since high school
• After a rocky start, Cassel plays well over the final three months
• Scott Pioli leaves to run Kansas City's franchise
• Pioli trades for Cassel as his new centerpiece, and the team rewards him with a $63mm extension including $28mm in guaranteed money

Let's give credit where credit is due, Cassel played far better than ANYONE expected last season. And perhaps as importantly, his play improved as the season wore on.

When the dust settled, Cassel ended the year as the 8th ranked fantasy QB. The fact Scott Pioli made acquiring Cassel a priority is another strong indication that at least one talent evaluator thinks he's very much the real deal.

But I'm still not sold, and here's why...

1. Cassel's numbers last year were uninspiring on a RELATIVE basis -- 3,693 yards and 21 TDs are nice numbers, but let's not forget Cassel was quarterbacking a unit that produced 4,859 yards and FIFTY (50!) TDs the prior season. That HAS to make you wonder what any reasonably talented QB would have done stepping in for Tom Brady.

2. Cassel holds onto the ball too long -- In 2008, Tom Brady was sacked 21 times. In 2009, Cassel was sacked a LEAGUE HIGH 47 times playing behind the same offensive line. Cassel is far from immobile (270 yards rushing) but took all those sacks because he holds onto the ball. If Cassel took that kind of punishment in New England, imagine what a nightmare it may be playing behind the Chiefs offensive line.

3. The Chiefs run a different system -- Todd Haley is implementing the pro-style, spread attack that made him a hot commodity as the Cardinals offensive coordinator. But that system is predicated on a QB making quick reads and spreading the ball around. Matt Leinart has struggled to thrive in Haley's system, and yet Leinart kept Cassel on the bench in college. Yikes.

4. The Chiefs offensive cast pales in comparison to the Patriots -- Dwayne Bowe is a stud, but he's not Randy Moss. Bobby Engram is sure handed, but he's nowhere near Wes Welker's level. Mark Bradley has tools, but he hasn't come close to producing like Jabar Gaffney. And the Chiefs offensive line is a reclamation project compared to the Patriots ring-laden unit.

A LOT has to go right for Cassel to become a relevant fantasy player in 2009. You have to think the Chiefs will make a quantum leap forward and that a number of unproven receivers and tight ends will emerge. You also have to think the Chiefs offensive line is a lot better than we expect them to be, and you also have to think Matt Cassel can handle a full 16-game schedule taking as many hits as he did last season. That's far too many leaps of faith for my tastes, particularly when there are a host of other QBs going in the same range that offer a better risk/reward.

Positives

• Cassel played at a high level on the biggest of stages, and considering his inexperience it's not unreasonable to think he can improve in 2009 and beyond
• Scott Pioli moved aggressively to trade for and sign Cassel as the Chiefs franchise passer; preferring him to Jay Cutler and other options
• Cassel ran for almost 300 yards last year and should break the pocket behind the Chiefs suspect line. 250-300 rushing yards can go a long way in making mediocre passing stats seem better in fantasy circles

Negatives

• Cassel holds onto the ball too much, and his numbers may have been inflated by the stellar supporting cast in New England
• The Chiefs offensive line is suspect, and Cassel led the league in sacks taken playing behind the Pats blockers
• Beyond Dwayne Bowe, the Chiefs have no proven receiving playmakers

Final Thoughts

Playing for the New England Patriots, Matt Cassel threw for 3,693 yards and 21 TDs. Does anyone expect him to match those numbers as a Chief? Discount those numbers by 10% and you're left with 3,300 yards and 19 TDs, which would make Cassel a middling fantasy QB2; in line with his ADP. And that assumes he can stay healthy for a full 16 games playing behind that line with his tendency to lock onto receivers waiting for a play to develop. Is Cassel guaranteed to bust? Certainly not. Scott Pioli is a smart personnel man and he's a believer. But is he a very high risk pick with limited upside? Yes, he is. I would rather target the likes of Carson Palmer or Matt Schaub in the 9th or 10th rounds and let someone else convince themselves Cassel is the 2nd coming of Tom Brady.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Ministry of Pain:
Matt Cassel is part of an elastic band of QBs where if you adjust their numbers by a couple of TDs in either direction you can pop them up 8-10 spots or down 8-10 spots. From David Garrard all the way down to Jake Delhomme on David Dodd's projections there is very little difference...and I agree with DD on this even though he isn't saying it. Cassel is #16 so he is right in the middle of the 10-24 crowd. It's just a matter of what flavor is for you. If you want an older established guy there is Palmer, Delhomme, Hasselbeck. If you want younger with possible upside there is Schaub, Ryan, Flacco. Just pick your poison.

As to Cassel, I think he will be somewhere over 3,000 yds and probably around 15-20 TDs as long as he nails down the job which he should with the amount of money they are going to pay him.

TS Garp:
There are owners who don't have a doubt in their minds that Cassel's going to fall on his face and be an absolute disaster, and you can certainly see their points. After all, the little success he's had came in one of the greatest offensive systems in the history of the NFL, where he was surrounded by exceptional talent. He's moving to a team that just lost their star tight end and looks shaky after Dwayne Bowe. In addition, Cassel took too many sacks at times and some people wonder if he'll be on the bench sooner rather than later, either by injury or benching.

I acknowledge that Cassel comes with quit a bit of risk, but I also see a lot of upside: the combination of Todd Haley as head coach and Chan Gailey as OC is very intriguing and should bode well for the KC passing attack. In addition, Gailey made Tyler Thigpen a pretty good fantasy QB for awhile last season, and I do believe that Matt Cassel is more talented than Thigpen. I also think you'll see the Chiefs pass a lot (both by design and by necessity) and Cassel has shown that he can run a bit as well. Again, I do believe that he comes with risk, but I think the reward is there as well. Just be sure to pair him with a safer play at QB.

switz:
I found it very telling when the Chiefs made it public that they didn't want to renegotiate. If they really bought that Cassel was a significant upgrade over Thigpen, why not renegotiate now when they have all the leverage.

Frankly, to me Thigpen looks like the better QB.

I believe Cassel will get the start because he was the FA brought in, but I don't think he lasts 10 games as the starter.

Dr. Octopus:
I think Cassel showed tremdous progress as the season wore on and corrected many of his early flaws, notably staring at the pass rush and holding onto the ball too long. His down field accuracy is a weakness but he even improved there as the season wore on. He's a smart accurate QB and will be successful in KC.

I think a lot of his doubters think "career backup" and that he was a product of the NE system but don't put enough effort into the analysis.

People overlook that Cassel was recruited to play QB at USC, perhaps the premiere college football program in the nation so he has talent. All indications were that the competition betweed him and Matt Leinart was razor thin close and could have gone either way. If Cassel would have beat out the former Heisman trophy winner to start at USC, I think its pretty safe to say he would have been a top 10 NFL draft pick. If he had the "rookie" season (first year as a starter) he had under that pedigree no one would be doubting him and all would be talking him up. Funny how a small twist of fate makes some one a "one hit wonder" instead of the next big thing. Personally I think Cassell falls somewhere in the middle, but will have a successful career going forward.

Matt Cassel Projections