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Spotlight - TE John Carlson, Seattle Seahawks
Posted on 8/7, exclusive to Footballguys.com
Jason Wood's Thoughts
John Carlson is one of a handful of young TEs that have greatly reshaped the way fantasy owners should approach the position. For a long time, TE was almost a fantasy afterthought as the position was as much about blocking as it was the occasional outlet pass. But then the athletic revolution started with Tony Gonzalez and Shannon Sharpe, who begat Antonio Gates and Jason Witten. These days, NFL teams not only use TEs, they feature them.There are so many productive TEs now that fantasy owners can be patient, and still come away with a player who could provide them 100+ fantasy points.
Consider:
- 50+ Receptions -- (99-03) 5.4 per season / (04-08) 9.8 per season
- 700+ Yards -- (99-03) 3.0 per season / (04-08) 6.8 per season
- 5+ TDs -- (99-03) 6.0 per season / (04-08) 10.8 per season
This year, John Carlson is poised to join the elite, if you don't already consider him there after last season. Carlson caught 55 passes for 627 yards and 5 scores as a rookie, which is ASTOUNDING. Take a look back at the average production for rookie tight ends and you'll realize how impressive Carlson's rookie season was:
Top Rookie TE Fantasy Seasons (1960-Present)
| Rank | First | Last | Year | Recs | Yards | TDs | FPTs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mike | Ditka | 1961 | 56 | 1076 | 12 | 179.6 |
| 2 | Keith | Jackson | 1988 | 81 | 869 | 6 | 122.9 |
| 3 | Charle | Young | 1973 | 55 | 854 | 6 | 121.4 |
| 4 | Dave | Parks | 1964 | 36 | 703 | 8 | 118.3 |
| 5 | John | Mackey | 1963 | 35 | 726 | 7 | 114.6 |
| 6 | Junior | Miller | 1980 | 46 | 584 | 9 | 112.4 |
| 7 | Cameron | Cleeland | 1998 | 54 | 684 | 6 | 104.4 |
| 8 | Jeremy | Shockey | 2002 | 74 | 894 | 2 | 101.4 |
| 9 | Raymond | Chester | 1970 | 42 | 556 | 7 | 97.6 |
| 10 | John | Carlson | 2008 | 55 | 627 | 5 | 92.7 |
As you can see, Carlson's rookie season was the 10th best in the modern era. And that bodes well for his 2009 prospects. QB Matt Hasselbeck is healthy, and new OC Greg Knapp made great use of TE Alge Crumpler when he was the coordinator in Atlanta. The addition of WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh gives the team a threat outside, but the rest of the WR corps isn't a threat to steal targets. If Carlson isn't the 2nd most targeted receiver in Seattle, it will be a shock.
Positives
- Unlike many fantasy TEs, Carlson is a complete player. He's as devoted a blocker as he is an offensive outlet
- The return of Matt Hasselbeck should lead to a marked improvement in the productivity of the entire passing game
- Carlson will be the 1st or 2nd most targeted receiver in Seattle, and should be considered option 1A to T.J. Houshmandzadeh's 1
Negatives
- The Seahawks running game is a question mark, and that lack of balance means defensive backs can focus on Seattle's best receivers and try to take them out of the game
- Last season Carlson was the Seahawks only healthy, sure handed option but the addition of T.J. Houshmandzadeh and a rehabbed Nate Burleson could change that
- Carlson isn't an eye-popping athlete
Final Thoughts
John Carlson was the 7th best fantasy TE as a rookie. That's unheard of in the modern era. This year, he gets a massive upgrade at QB, will have more space thanks to the addition of a real WR1, and should improve simply as a byproduct of the natural progression TEs make from Year One to Year Two. If last year was his baseline, Carlson becomes one of the few young TEs that could legitimately push into the rarefied air that Jason Witten, Dallas Clark, Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates command. Carlson is one of several TEs I will be aggressively targeting in the middle rounds of drafts as my starter. He's great value at his current ADP.Quotations from the Message Board Thread
To view the entire Player Spotlight thread (there's a ton of fantastic commentary in there), click here.
Sabertooth:
Hass coming back is a huge boost for the entire Seattle offense. Carlson was pretty solid last season. He's got the high draft pick pedigree and didn't disappoint last season. He's a nice young talent on an offense that should be vastly better than last season.
Sigmund Bloom, FBG Staff:
I have to say I was skeptical about Carlson when the Seahawks took him in the second (early by most accounts). He's not exceptionally athletic, but he does have good ball skills, and he's fearless over the middle. I thought a decent amount of his production last year was by default, due to the WRs dropping like flies, but everything coming out of OTAs indicates that the team is excited about Carlson's development, and that his role will grow this year.
John Carlson Projections
| SOURCE | REC | RECYD | RECTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Wood | 62 | 710 | 6 |
| Message Board Consensus | 59 | 671 | 7 |