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Spotlight - RB Reggie Bush, New Orleans Saints

Posted on 6/25, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Colin Dowling's Thoughts

My how things have changed. It wasn't long ago that Reggie Bush was the player to acquire in fantasy football. And why not? He was quick, dazzling, a touchdown waiting to happen! For savvy football fans, the chinks in the armor began to appear in his final college game when USC lost the National Championship game to the University of Texas. The Longhorn defense was extremely fast from sideline to sideline and despite a great statistical game, Bush didn't look nearly as dominant as during his entire college career. Was that game a foreshadowing to what Bush could or could not accomplish against faster, quicker NFL defenses?

Three years in to his NFL career, the answer appears clear: Reggie Bush's outstanding physical talents simply aren't enough to overcome the game-planning and physical tools of NFL defenses. He lacks the strength and stature to run up the middle very often and even his generous speed isn't enough to round the corner against the best defensive football players in the league.

To date, Bush is inarguably at his best when he's in the open field. The best way to get him the ball in a clearing has been through passing him the ball, not through sweeps and runs. As a result, Reggie Bush has yet to distinguish himself as a great running back despite playing in a high powered offense. Bush actually has more receiving yards then rush yards and it appears clear to everyone watching that he'll never be an every-down running back.

But such a distinction only muddies the water when considering his fantasy prospects. Sure, Bush may not ever be a 400 touch workhorse like the great fantasy backs around him. But that doesn't mean that he doesn't have great value on draft day. Consider...

• Bush is an absolute goldmine in PPR leagues. Over the course of his career he has averaged 5.6 receptions per game. That averages out to 90 receptions per full season.
• His yards per carry has actually improved in each year of his career. While a career high in 2008 of 3.8 yards per rush is hardly the stuff of legend, it certainly isn't awful.
• Regardless of past production, Bush's physical talents mean he is a threat to score every time he touches the ball. Just like the Westbrooks and Petersons of the fantasy world, it's hard to put a price on a player that is a threat to go the distance at any given time.

Reggie Bush's difficulties as an NFL player are pretty easy to identify. He doesn't produce nearly as many "big plays" as he did in college (which is why his YPC is lacking) and his inability to shoulder the load limits his overall touches. Despite being the number two overall selection and playing on turf (which should enhance his ample speed), Bush averages a mere eleven rushes per game. That simply isn't going to work if he's ever going to be considered a top notch rusher.

The flip side is that Bush may not need a lot of carries to perform for your fantasy squad. As mentioned before, his value in the passing game is completely off the charts. Even in non-PPR leagues, his yardage totals and touchdowns off of receptions make him a solid choice once the top-tier running backs have been selected.

The hope among many fantasy owners (particularly those in dynasty leagues) is that one day Reggie Bush's rushing production will grow to the level that when combined with his receiving he will find a place among the game's elite. Unfortunately, that looks like less and less of a possibility as the years go by. Bush shared backfield touches with the talented Deuce McAllister and when Deuce was no longer effective and healthy, the Saints chose to promote Pierre Thomas to the role of workhorse back. If ever there was a time that Bush might become the bell cow in the backfield, it would have been 2008 or 2009. Unfortunately, those hopes appear to be extinguished. Reggie Bush isn't likely to ever be a 400 touch running back and those hoping he might be should learn to live with their disappointment.

Perhaps even more troubling is Bush's inability to stay healthy. It is no wonder that the Saints refuse to trust him with a larger role. Bush has missed 10 games in the last two seasons and is beginning to earn the dreaded "injury prone" label. Even worse, he's recovering from the much maligned "microfracture" surgery, which could rob him of the quickness and speed that were his greatest asset.

So what can we expect from Bush this season? Unfortunately, it looks like more of the same. In PPR leagues, he is worthy of second round consideration if for no other reason then he catches a LOT of passes. But we wouldn't recommend such a move without some clarity on his health over the summer. In non-PPR leagues, he is likely to be drafted as a 2nd or 3rd running back somewhere in the 4th round. His current ADP slots him as RB20, which seems a tad bit high. Why? Aside from presuming that his injuries won't affect his ability (not a bet we are willing to take) a draft spot in so high is risky because Bush's upside is limited. We have already established that he isn't likely to garner more then 210 or 230 touches in the best case. Pierre Thomas is going to be the chain-moving back and likely to get many of the goal-line carries. Even if Bush's touchdown totals are solid and he stays healthy, it would be nearly impossible for him to outperform his current ADP without some completely unforeseen change. He would need to start carrying the ball a lot more (no safe bet considering his history and his health) or he'd need to start breaking much bigger plays when he does have the ball (another risky bet).

Positives

• Clearly a great physical talent who the Saints want to involve in their offense as much as possible
• Bush's receiving numbers help make up for the fact that he isn't a great rusher. In fact, Bush's receptions are a great value in PPR leagues
• Still young enough to develop in to a more complete back capable of top-quality fantasy production

Negatives

• Coming off of microfracture surgery. Will that and a number of other recent injuries permanently affect his speed and quickness?
• ADP seems a bit too high for a player with limited touches and limited upside
• Pierre Thomas is clearly going to take a number of valuable touches from Bush until Bush shows he can shoulder the load, which may never happen
• Despite playing in a high-octane offense, on turf, surrounded by great talent, Bush has never averaged more then 3.8 yards per carry. And with so few carries given to him, that is a problem

Final Thoughts

The picture concerning Reggie Bush seems to get clearer by the year. He is a dazzling complementary running back and an electrifying weapon for the New Orleans offense. But any dreams of him becoming a Hall of Fame running back with unlimited upside should be long gone. It is certainly possible that in time Bush could turn in to a Priest Holmes or Bryan Westbrook style of running back but the more likely scenario is that he'll continue on in a running-back-by-committee, giving up important touches to another Saints rusher. Bush's value in the passing game is the only thing keeping his value from falling through the cellar and while he should be a lock for 70 receptions if healthy, there is no way of knowing if he'll ever add much production on the ground to go with his stellar receiving numbers. What's worse is he's coming off of injury and it is far too early to determine if his quickness and speed are still with him. Buyer beware.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Choke:
Welcome to the Pierre Thomas show.

Bush will be fine, all things considered. But he wont be the running games bell cow by any stretch of the imagination.

The fantasy owners of Bush will keep lamenting "that coulda been mine!" during the season. But will still get fine production as a #2 RB.

rzrback77:
Reggie Bush can co-exist with Pierre Thomas. Thomas is not as good as Deuce used to be and he and Reggie split duties very effectively. Reggie has not and will not ever be a very consistent rusher, but he has skills and is an excellent receiveing option for the Saints. I think that he and Pierre are more likely to be seen together on the field than he and Deuce were.

Reggie Bush 06 16 gms 155 rushes 565 yds 3.6 ypc 121 targets 88 catches 72.7% 742 yds 8.4 ypc and 8 total TDs RB17 non-ppr FBG
Reggie Bush 07 12 gms 157 rushes 581 yds 3.7 ypc 98 targets 73 catches 74.4% 417 yds 5.7 ypc and 6 total TDs RB24 non-ppr FBG
Reggie Bush 08 10 gms 106 rushes 404 yds 3.8 ypc 73 targets 52 catches 71.2% 440 yds 8.5 ypc and 6 total TDs RB36 non-ppr FBG

His number of games has decreased in every year, but his effectiveness and especially targets per game have been consistent. He has averaged about ten carries and almost 8 targets per game for his career. I would have to check this out, but I would anticipate that his ADP has dropped quite a bit since his rookie year, but he still can be an effective fantasy option, especially in ppr leagues. I am not as big a believer in Thomas as most on the board, so I do not see any reduction in Reggie's opportunities in 09.

Armor & Sword:
In PPR he is superb value this year. Non PPR he is just another back.

It's that simple.

Pierre Thomas is going to be the workhorse and Bush is going to be in the slot and running safety valve/dump off routes with the occasional RB drag route down the sideline. The fact of the matter is with that offense when you have Thomas and Bush on the field at the same time it will cause nightmares for the defense. You have to account for Reggie Bush at all times. I can also see Thomas getting plenty of work when they want to run clock and then getting Reggie in their as a change up and getting the opportunity to bust some long runs.

The Saints have a great situation and should be the best offense in the game this upcoming season.

Reggie Bush Projections