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Spotlight - WR Antonio Bryant, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Posted on 7/11, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Cecil Lammey's Thoughts

Last season Antonio Bryant looked like the playmaker some envisioned when he came out of Pitt. He would love a repeat performance in 2009, but many things have changed since the last time Bryant was on the field. Jon Gruden is gone, replaced by former defensive coordinator Raheem Morris. Offensive coordinator Bill Muir is gone, replaced by former Boston College head coach Jeff Jagodzinski. But the staff isn't the only thing that has changed in Tampa. The quarterback position is up in the air with Luke McCown, Byron Leftwich, and rookie Josh Freeman all competing for the starting job. Wide receivers Joey Galloway and Ike Hilliard have moved on, and the Bucs added two big time weapons in tight end Kellen Winslow Jr, and running back Derrick Ward.

Last year, Antonio Bryant had the best season of his career (83 receptions, 1,248 yards and 7 TDs), which ranked him as the 8th best fantasy WR including the top WR in the last seven weeks of the season. His current ADP is WR20, so many are expecting a decline in production -- but why? Let's take a closer look at Antonio Bryant to see if the expected decline is warranted.

Questions about Antonio coming into 2009:

How many targets will he lose to Kellen Winslow?
The Bucs made their biggest move of the offseason by getting Kellen Winslow in a trade with the Browns. Tampa was clearly not happy with their tight end situation and Winslow gives them the type of playmaker at that position they've never had. But how much will he cut into Bryant's numbers? No one knows the answer for sure, but he could take a big slice of the passing game pie. However, he's not only taking away receptions -- Winslow is an instant upgrade in the red zone and could score a majority of his touchdowns when the Bucs get inside the twenty yard line. We expect Winslow to snag around 60-70 catches for Tampa in 2009, and he could lead the team in receiving touchdowns.

Who will start at QB, and how does that change Bryant's outlook?
This is perhaps the biggest question mark surrounding the Bucs this offseason. The new regime has a diverse group of quarterbacks to choose from. Luke McCown signed a lucrative deal in February to stay with the team and is a gritty leader. McCown has been struggling so far this offseason, so much in fact the Bucs decided to bring in two more quarterbacks to compete with him. Byron Leftwich comes to Tampa from the world champion Pittsburgh Steelers and throws a nice deep pass. However, he is far from athletic, has a windup so long you can time it with a sundial, and struggles to get out of the way of the rush. In the first-round of the 2009 NFL Draft the Bucs selected the big rookie QB Josh Freeman from Kansas State. He has nice upside, but is a raw prospect that could take years to develop. The best QB for Bryant's numbers could be Byron Leftwich because of his ability to strike deep, but will he win the job and can the line give him adequate protection in the pocket? Bottom line, it could be a rotation at quarterback for the Bucs during the season which will hurt Bryant's production this year.

How much production will new RB Derrick Ward take away from the passing game?
Not only did the Bucs add tight end Kellen Winslow, but they added pass catching running back Derrick Ward to their roster in the offseason. Ward is very effective as a receiver out of the backfield and could account for 40-50 receptions in 2009. New offensive coordinator Jeff Jagodzinski loves to run play action passes, but if Bryant is covered deep then the QB has the safer option of dumping the ball of to Ward after the fake.

If the team struggles offensively will he be a malcontent?
That's always been a huge question with Antonio Bryant. People remember his famous feud with Bill Parcells when they were together in Dallas, and things don't always go smoothly with Bryant off the field. Bryant was the hottest receiver in the league in the last half of the season in 2008, but things are entirely different now. It's a safe bet to say that Bryant won't be getting the 137 targets like he did last year because of the change in coaching staffs. They will try and keep him happy, but if the team is struggling one must wonder if Bryant would be a team player or lash out in the media and take plays off on the field.

Will the Buccaneers sign a veteran free agent during training camp?
The Bucs have recently stated that they have no interest in Plaxico Burress, but will they change their tune when his legal issues become clear? Marvin Harrison has also been rumored to be on the teams list of potential free agents to sign, but nothing has come of it so far. The depth chart is pretty bare behind Bryant, with only rookie Sammie Stroughter really standing out in minicamp. Bringing in a veteran like Burress would really cut into Bryant's numbers significantly.

Positives

• Able to make acrobatic catches down the sideline
• Gets off the line and into his routes smoothly
• Good deep threat on play action passes

Negatives

• Could have targets go down due to new teammates
• Will take too many plays off
• Sometimes a malcontent

Final Thoughts

The Bucs are looking for a more balanced offense and that's why they added Winslow and Ward. Bryant gained confidence from last season, but everything is much different now and one has to wonder how he'll handle the changes. Tampa is hopeful that Bryant and Winslow can be a great receiving duo, kind of like Tony Gonzalez and Dwayne Bowe were for the Chiefs last year. Fantasy owners will be pleased if the Bucs defense struggles in 2009 because then the team will be forced to air it out in order to get back in the game. This would mean a higher target total for Bryant, but I think it's doubtful that he will match his target total (137) from last season. In fantasy football it is wise to avoid players coming off a career year unless you can get them as a value pick. With that in mind proceed with caution when considering drafting Bryant for your fantasy squad in 2009.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

rzrback77:
Antonio Bryant burst on the scene in 08, actually reappearing like a Phoenix. He has better skills that most will admit as the tendency is to magnify his knuckleheadedness. He and TB lost their QB in the offseason, but they have possibilities to maintain their passing effectiveness. Leftwich has had his moments and is probably looking at his last opportunity. The Bucs added an awesome TE in Winslow and swapped an effective although elderly Dunn for the ex-Giant Derrick Ward. Both Ward and Graham are solid receiving RBs so even if Tampa limits their WR targets to primarily Bryant, they still have several folks to targer.

Anthony Bryant is slotted close to my expectations as WR 19 and 56 overall.

MAC_32:
Special talent with a $0.02 head, the one year contract should keep him motivated but you never know with him.

That's not my biggest concern though. Josh Freeman QB'ing is. With him under center I see Bryant little different than I saw Berrian last year. A lot of lemons with a few unpredictable big games mixed in, where he's going? Not worth it imo. If Leftwich gets the leg up in camp I'll move Bryant into the top 20 but if it's Freeman then he's hovering in WR3 territory, a place I don't expect him to fall.

Jason Wood, Senior Writer:
It's fair to say Bryant was one of the most shocking players last season, and the Bucs obviously think he can repeat, which is why they moved quickly to franchise him. But as others have pointed out, the Bucs have immense uncertainty this year. New coach, new OC, a passel of new passers [with no idea who gets the Week One start], a new RB into the mix, a new All Pro tight end. How will things shake out? I honestly think we can't base anything in 2009 on what happened in the Gruden Era, which means you're flying blind here.

But intuitively, Bryant should be the WR1 and one of the top 2 targets. Does that make him an attractive option at his current ADP? Where would YOU draft him if you had the chance?

Antonio Bryant Projections