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Spotlight - RB Ronnie Brown, Miami Dolphins

Posted on 7/3, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Chris Smith's Thoughts

It was only two seasons ago, in the seventh game of the season, that RB Ronnie Brown went down with a devastating knee injury that appeared serious enough to possibly derail his career. His rehabilitation finished ahead of schedule and he rebounded with a very nice 2008 campaign, in which the Dolphins shocked the NFL world by making the playoffs. Brown's role within the 'rediscovered' wildcat formation led to some big efforts by the offense and with him now a full year removed from the injury, he could finally make a run at finishing inside the fantasy top-ten.

A Synopsis of Browns' career to date

The Dolphins anticipated big things out of Brown when the Dolphins scooped him up as the 2nd overall pick of the 2005 NFL Draft. The big, powerful Auburn running back was supposed to be the cornerstone of a Dolphins rushing attack for the next decade and while he has had good moments, he has never really become the elite rusher the team thought they were getting.

The good:

Brown has averaged a respectable 4.4 yards per carry throughout his first four NFL seasons, never finishing with lower than 4.2 YPC in any one season. He has also managed to catch 137 passes and averaged 8.4 yards per catch, highlighting his dual-threat capabilities. Last year, he doubled his career best rushing-touchdown output by scoring ten times and also threw for a touchdown pass. He has also had thirteen 100-yard rushing games in his fifty-one game career and has generally been productive when the ball is in his hands.

The bad:

One of the obvious concerns when it comes to Ronnie Brown is the 51 games played over his four NFL seasons. He has missed thirteen games so far in his brief career. Of bigger concern however, is the lack of carries he has averaged per game over that span. He has averaged in fact, just 15.3 carries per game as a professional so far which translates into only 245 carries on averaged throughout an entire sixteen-game season. In 2008, Brown had just two games with 18+ carries on the season.

What can we expect from Ronnie Brown this season and going forward?

Can he carry the load like a true elite running back?

It is difficult to project Ronnie Brown to finish with 300 carries in a season, one of the benchmarks to a truly elite fantasy running back. He simply does not seem to have the durability to carry the ball 20-times per game and not break down. However, there have been moments throughout his career where he did indeed average 20+ carries over a stretch of games and had some of his finest moments during those moments.

2007

Brown started on fire before his knee injury derailed his season. Suffering a knee injury is not due to the number of carries a running back has but is more of a bad luck type of ailment. In his last five games of 2007, Brown touched the ball 128 times, scored 5 touchdowns and piled up a staggering 860 total yards. He was a fantasy beast coming out of the gate that season and highlighted that he was capable of 20+ touches per game without wearing down throughout the contest.

2006

Brown had a seven game stretch in mid-season in which he averaged 23.6 touches per game and six games with 100+ total yards gained. He had four games in that stretch with 22+ carries and all seven games saw 18+ total touches of the ball.

Projecting 2009 numbers

The revitalization of Ricky Williams last year enabled the Dolphins to keep Ronnie Brown fresh and healthy throughout the entire season. It was the first time in Brown's four-year career he managed to play in all sixteen games. Williams has not been overly impressive throughout mini-camps however while Brown has been gathering momentum.

Here is a blurb from the Miami Herald about Brown's performance in mini-camp:

Dolphins | Brown in great shape (Tue Jun 30, 10:03 AM) - David J. Neal, of The Miami Herald, reports Miami Dolphins RB Ronnie Brown is in great shape and has looked explosive during offseason workouts. 'As far as shape goes, he's outstanding right now,' head coach Tony Sparano said. 'That sounds like a company line, but I mean it. In the weight room the guy is super right now. He weighs 230 pounds, he's running better, he is stronger, so all of those things from a progress standpoint I see as positives.'

What I see happening for Brown this season:

I see more consistency for Brown this season in regards to touches of the ball and more looks within the Dolphins passing scheme. Last year, the Dolphins I believe were hesitant to over-extend Brown, babying him throughout the season. Healthy and looking great in mini-camps, the Dolphins will likely get the ball into Brown's hands on average 18-20 times per game and it is very feasible he finishes the season with 270 carries and 50+ receptions 'if' he can stay healthy and not break down.

Will he be the ringleader of the 'Wildcat' formation again this season?

There is a very real chance that it will be rookie QB Pat White in as the quarterback in the Wildcat formation this year. After all, he fits the bill perfectly as a dual threat option who can both pass and run out of the formation. However, in terms of Brown's statistics, it should have little to no effect, as he will simply slide back into the halfback role in the package if White can start as a rookie. In fact, it could prove to be even better for Brown's production to have a lightning rod like the speedy White inserted into the package, as defenses will no longer be able to key on Brown as they did last season.

Can Brown stay healthy through an entire season of increased workload?

The bottom line is nobody can accurately answer that statement. We can say based on past performance, it is difficult to project Brown to carry the ball 20 times per game but there have been moments in his four-year career that the Dolphins did ride him on the field and he looked very good during those moments. Stronger and more fit than he's ever been, there is no reason to believe heading into this season that Brown will break down other than past history which is no way to accurately project a player.

Positives

• Elite talent: He was the 2nd overall pick for a reason and at times has looked the part with the Dolphins
• In best shape of his life: Everybody is commenting on the shape he is in this season. Looks ready to elevate his play
• The Dolphins offensive line has become a good run-blocking unit

Negatives

• Injury woes throughout career: He simply has not been durable enough throughout career and didn't even carry the load in college
• Dolphins spelled him often with veteran Ricky Williams in 2008
• The Dolphins schedule is much more difficult this season than in 2008

Final Thoughts

The stars appear to be aligning for Brown's first crack into the fantasy top-ten at the running back position and if he indeed can stay healthy, there is no reason why he cannot make the leap to Top-10 fantasy player. He is in phenomenal shape, his knee injury is firmly behind him and if he can simply touch the ball 5 more times per game this season, there is a real chance he will be a very special player for the Dolphins and fantasy owners. If he is there for the taking in the mid-to-latter stages of round two, do not hesitate to pick him up. In all reality, he is a player to target at the end of round one as not many players have his upside heading into the season. Do not sleep on Brown this year or you will likely come to regret it as the year wears on.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Gatorman:
Ah, the enigma that is Ronnie Brown...

He has a few things that work in his favor this year:

1) Improved O line, although one of the guard spots is still under construction
2) He is now 2 years removed from his surgery, and is showing a good burst
3) This is a contract year

A few things working against him:

1) Miami has 3 other runners on this team (Williams, Pat Cobb, and Pat White)
2) while he is a great receiver out of the backfield, he is not always the third down back (Cobb is)
3) Chad Pennington at QB means Safeties are close to the line of scrimmage.

To me his ceiling is about 265 carries and about 35 catches. He has a 4.4 ypc average for his career so 1166 on the ground and likely another 325 through the air. His TDs will be interesting, as Polite and others will vulture some short yardage from him. Lets call it 10 for safe measure.

hauser42:
Ronnie Brown will end being a RB1 but will be able to be drafted as a RB2 in many leagues. His ability to carry a full work load through out the year is the only concern (big concern). I don't see Ricky Williams or any other backs cutting into the work load unless there is an injury. O-Line has been repaired and ready to make holes for the RB to rack up some yardage. Coaching staff is not going to away from pounding the ball image any time soon.

laughinboy_2000:
I guess you can count me as one of the VERY few that do not believe in Ronnie Brown in 2009. I just have not see enough of him to say that he is a RB1 or RB 2 for that matter. Let's closely look at last year's stats and see how Brown really did in 2008.

- Brown had 10 GAMES... 10 GAMES last year with UNDER 13 carries for the game. Take a look at a couple of his games last year and you can clearly see he IS NOT RB1 or even RB2 material.

Good games:
Week 3 vs. NE - 17 carries, 113 yards, 4 TDs
Week 5 vs. SD - 24 carries, 125 yards, 1 TD
Week 11 vs. OAK - 16 carries, 101 yards, 1 TD

Bad Games:
Week 1 vs. NYJ - 6 carries, 23 yards
Week 2 vs. ZONA - 11 carries for 25 yards
Week 3 vs. Ravens - 13 carries, 27 yards
Week 8 vs. Buff. - 20 carries for 59 yards
Week 10 vs. SEA - 10 carries for 39 yards

- Brown had 40% of his TDs in 2008 in one game. Don't be fooled by the 10 TDs that you see.
- Brown has NEVER seen more than 241 rushes in one year. That's including when he was in college at Auburn.
- The Dolphins also have a first place type of schedule which could wear down the Fins.
- The Dolphins now also have a plethora of runners on the team in 2009. The Dolphins will feature RB's Ricky Williams and Patrick Cobbs along with QB/RB Pat White in the mix. It's clear to me after looking at last year's stats and the players on this roster for 2009, that Ronnie will again fall under 240 carries.

- And last but not least, Brown has a history of the injury bug. You can't ignore that fact that the Dolphins want to limit Brown's carries to keep him healthy. Just look at his carries last year if you need proof.

All of this adds up to me passing on Ronnie Brown this year. I see him as a borderline RB2, but performing as a RB3 with their tough schedule and other players around him.

Ronnie Brown Projections