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Spotlight - RB Donald Brown, Indianapolis Colts

Posted on 8/23, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

Last year three rookie RBs ran for at least 1,200 yards, marking the first time in the modern era that's happened. Matt Forte (1,238 yards), Chris Johnson (1,228 yards) and Steve Slaton (1,282 yards) were all dynamic offensive weapons, and each helped make their fantasy owner's very successful. In a cyclical league those three rookies' success has people expecting great things from this year's rookie crop. But fantasy success isn't just about ability; it's about the confluence of ability and opportunity. Donald Brown has the ability and is in a system that can produce prodigious numbers, but will he have the opportunity in 2009 to help fantasy owners?

Brown doesn't hold the answer to that question, incumbent Joseph Addai is the key.

If Joseph Addai can stay healthy, the Colts won't hesitate to keep him atop the RB depth chart. That's no condemnation on Brown's NFL future, but more the reality of a veteran playoff team realizing the importance of continuity within the team dynamic.

So is Addai healthy, and can he stay that way?
After two impressive seasons (RB11 as a rookie, RB5 as a 2nd year), Joseph Addai's play fell way off last year due to a number of nagging injuries. Robbed of his explosiveness, Addai played in 12 games and ran for 544 yards, averaging a meager 3.5 yards per rush (a full yard lower than his career mark). He still contributed in the passing game (25 catches in 12 games, with two TDs), but when the dust settled Addai was only the 39th best fantasy RB.

This offseason, Addai had his knee scoped and missed a mini-camp, but he's been back practicing in training camp and preseason. There's no indication Addai is any more likely to start the season on the injury report as anyone else in the Colts locker room. That's bad news for Brown owners, but it's not dire news.

Donald Brown is more than capable of handling the load if he's given the chance Our resident college scouting gurus, Sigmund Bloom and Cecil Lammey, write player capsules on the majority of NFL draft prospects at our sister site, Draftguys (www.draftguys.com). This is what they had to say about Donald Brown before the draft:

Sigmund Bloom -- You have to love Brown's intense effort. He runs "hot" with a compact frame and stride, and he runs with determination. He runs like a power back, but he's not quite power back sized, and he also lacks breakaway speed. Brown is a high character player and he's also underrated as a receiver, and as an elusive runner in the open field.

Cecil Lammey -- Brown is a compact runner, with a high energy playing style. When his shoulders are square to the line of scrimmage he can break through to the second level, and has deceptive speed in the open field. Donald lacks the vision and lateral agility to set up defenders, and instead he tries to jump cut down the field. His frame is maxed out, and he doesn't have the lower body strength of a true NFL workhorse. Mike Mayock from the NFL Network, and many scouts from around the league went to UConn's pro day but Brown stood on his solid numbers from the combine. With all the attention he's been getting in the media, Brown may be drafted near the end of the 1st round.

The Colts are going to run more this year, which bodes well for both Addai and Brown
The Colts ranked 30th in the league last year with 370 rushing attempts, but they were 13th and 18th in the prior two seasons. With Peyton Manning under center, it's imperative that opposing defenses respect the threat of the running game, too. This year, Brown will be a part of re-establishing the ground attack.

At worst, it's an RBBC...at best, Brown will emerge as the primary option sometime this season
Addai was at his best as a rookie when he got 226 carries over the full season. Yet, if the Colts plan on running the ball 440-460 times this year, Brown is going to have to share a heavy part of the load. The most likely scenario is a 60/40 split. Most fantasy owners will project Addai to get the 60%, whereas I think Brown will be that guy.

When in doubt, look at ADP to find value
So few RBs are unquestioned workhorses anymore. Teams realize the need to have a number of runners that can rotate into a game. This trend is potentially great for NFL coaches, but it's a nightmare for fantasy owners. One of the ways to maximize the trend toward RBBC is to focus on the respective ADPs of the players involved.

In this case, Addai is being drafted RB22 and 48th overall. Donald Brown, on the other hand, is being drafted RB34, 84th overall. To me, this is a no brainer. I wouldn't feel comfortable using a 4th or 5th rounder on Addai given his questionable health status and the decline in his productivity in each of his first three seasons. But grabbing a talented rookie runner who should get no less than 40% of the RB touches for a dynamic offense in the 8th or 9th round? Sign me up!

Positives

• Donald Brown is a polished runner who pounded out the yards in the underrated Big East, and he's one of the favorite prospects of our Draftguys, Sigmund and Cecil
• The Colts have a long history of productive offensive output, and at worst Brown is in line to share carries with Joseph Addai
• Peyton Manning keeps defenses honest, don't expect the line to be stacked against Brown and the other RBs often

Negatives

• Joseph Addai, in spite of an injury-riddled 2008, is back on the practice field and looks like his old self
• The Colts have undergone some changes on the offensive line, including replacing their left tackle; but neither LT has been particularly impressive in camp
• Tony Dungy retired, and Jim Caldwell has taken over; it remains to be seen whether the Colts will lose some of their swagger and discipline during the transition

Final Thoughts

Every year a number of RBs burst into the Top 20 but could've been had in the middle and late rounds of your draft. This year Donald Brown is a decent bet to fit that bill. He's an 8th or 9th rounder according to ADP, going four or five rounds later than Addai in several of the drafts I've been a part of. That's absurd. Brown is as pedigreed a talent as Addai, and is already drawing praise from the coaches for both his understanding of the playbook and his ability to block in blitz pickup. The main reason rookie RBs don't get on the field is because of the blocking schemes, and Brown has that licked. At worst, I expect Brown to get 40% of the workoad, which makes him worth of a roster spot. But more likely, I see him as the primary back sooner rather than later. Draft him and keep him on your bench for a few weeks, but be ready to ride him to success in subsequent months.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

switz:
I really need to do a breakdown of the Colts running game for my own projects this season, and haven't gotten to it yet.

That said, my guess would be about 440-450 rushes, as they had in '06 & '07. In both those seasons, Addai had 230-260 carries. I don't see that number falling off, but I do see it closer to 230 than to 260. That leaves IMO 120-140 carries for Brown, and the rest split between Mike Hart, Manning, etc.

130 carries, 546 yards, 3 TDs, 22 rec, 165 yards, 1 TD

People forget that in '07 the OL was a disaster, and in '08 Addai's ankle was messed up all season long. For a guy so "injury prone" last season was the only time he's missed extended time, and he only missed 1 game in '07. Missing 5 games in three years isn't that much, when 80% of that was in one season. Through the first 24 games of his career, Addai managed a 4.8 YPC, then his OL went down, then he got hurt. If he's healthy, and having his carries limited to the mid 200s should keep him healthy, I can't see Brown outperforming him. Addai was drafted to start, Brown was drafted to complement.

laughinboy_2000:
Donald Brown should provide owners with an undervalued RB3 type of player. He proved he could carry a heavy workload in college at UConn and led the nation in rushing. He's in a perfect situation now in Indy with a powerful offense that plays on turf and playing alongside last year's MVP. I think people may be looking too much into the fact that Addai gets hurt. How can anyone predict injuries anyways? Instead I would look at how the Colts will use Addai and Brown on the field. This will clearly be a time sharing back field, and I firmly believe it will be something close to a 50-50 split. That way they can keep both Addai and DBrown fresh. Addai AND Brown are both too talented in my opinion to keep off the field. Here is my shot at how I think the carries, yards, and TDs may break down at years end.

Addai - 200 carries, 800 yards, 7 TDs
Brown - 180 carries, 800 yards, 7 TDs

Brown provide value to me b/c he's proven he can carry a full workload in college. In most drafts, people also will be drafting Addai ahead of Brown. Again, this is a situation where I see a split of carries and they will even out at the end of the year. That is unless Addai goes down with an injury. Then I believe Brown's value skyrockets.

az_prof:
Previous coaching staff wanted Addai; current coaching staff wanted Brown. Addai is a declining player whose ypc has gone done every year and this past year was really atrocious. This year carries may be split 50/50, but if he performs, Brown will eventually move Addai aside.

Brown is a guy who can do it all and who has a very good work ethic. He isn't the kind of guy who will get to the NFL and not see playing time because of an inability to learn NFL blocking or team playbook. He runs inside and out well and catches well too. I could see him being the goal line back, the third down and long back (receptions), and second half back. Addai will start but Brown will get alot of opportunities on a good offense.

Team Canada:
Here is a different angle for y'all. You have to consider the Team's MO with new RBs.

Rookie RB numbers.
Edge - rush 1533 and 13 TDs : 62 rec 586 and 4 TDs
Rhodes - rush 1100 and 9 TDs : 34 Rec 224 and 0 TDs
Addai - rush 1081 and 8 TDs : 40 rec 325 and 1 TD

Sure we can bust up every stat out there. I can poke the following holes in the above stats.

1: Edge played only 6 games the year Rhodes came in. Although he averaged over 100 yards per game.

2: Rhodes wasn't much when Addai came in.

3: The NFL has changed to a RBBC world since Edge's rookie year.

I'm taking the following into consideration, in addition to busting out the raw projections and injury guesses, when doing my research on Brown.

A: Indy's MO when they bring in a new Back.
B: indy's MO on getting a first round draft pick involved early.
And 3: Brown's work ethic and how that fits/pays off in Indy's system.

This is just a little change up and a different perspective for you.

In my league I can keep 2 guys every year and I'm keeping 2 of Chris Johnson, Forte and S-Jax so I'm looking for a guy who grow into a feature back or on the strong side of the RBBC later in the season and who has potential to be a stud in the years to come. So far Donald Brown is a high prospect.

Cheers and enjoy the research.

Donald Brown Projections