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Spotlight - QB Tom Brady, New England Patriots

Posted on 7/11, exclusive to Footballguys.com

David Yudkin's Thoughts

The last time Tom Brady played an entire football game was Super Bowl 42, a game in which he was physically beat down by the Giants and a game where the Patriots' quest for a perfect season fell one drive short. Since then, Brady's life has taken many turns, but effectively the last time he played more than a few minutes was that game in February 2008. By the time he suits up this September, 19 months would have elapsed since Terrific Tom saw any decent amount of game time. (Brady missed much of the 2008 preseason with injuries most notably a foot injury.)

Brady saw live action was for a handful of minutes in the 2008 opener, and the rest they say, is history. He succumbed to a season-ending knee injury in the first quarter, seemingly taking the Patriots' playoff hopes down with him. From that point on, speculation and paparazzi stories have run rampant about Brady's recovery, with the opinions of sports surgeons and specialists sometimes becoming mainstays of news stories for several months over the off-season.

Brady's knee did get infected and did require additional surgeries to clean things out. Beyond that, how well his knee has healed will have to be determined on the field of play. Articles, blogs, and message boards were filled with Brady being behind schedule, ahead of schedule, potentially leaving him out for another year, or possibly doing just fine.

Moreso than ever, Brady became more newsworthy as a budding young socialite than a three-time Super Bowl winner. He was spotted at art galas, restaurant openings, and parties for the upper crust; volunteering at homeless shelters; walking his supermodel girlfriend's dog in Central Park; getting handfed grapes on the beach, and the like. Did he get married? Was he having another child? Was he in a wheelchair, using a cane, in a walking boot, or limping?

Heading into training camp, we can rest assured that Brady is chomping at the bit to get back onto the field and rid himself of the label of "Kept Man," as he was in danger of losing his man card. He still has the bitter pill of "18-1" to tackle, and he's been working harder than ever to get himself ready for the 2009 season. That loss has been on his mind ever since, and is there any doubt that he wants redemption?

When last we saw Brady on the football field, he was writhing in pain on Opening Day last year. Halfway through the first quarter of that game, Brady already had 76 passing yards and had thrown 11 passes. At that point in the game, the Patriots had only four rushing attempts. While only a small sample size, this could be a vital piece of the puzzle in what the Patriots outlook for 2009 may be, but more on that later.

Brady's 2007 season ranks as the best fantasy season ever, as he ranked first in NFL history in TD passes with 50 and fourth all-time in passing yardage with 4,806 yards. As a frame of reference, only 17 times has a QB thrown for 4,500 yards in a season and only 16 times has a QB had even 35 TD passes in a season. In terms of repeatability, Dan Fouts, Dan Marino, Kurt Warner, and Warren Moon were able to have more than one season with 4,500 yards passing and Marino, Warner, and Brett Favre were the only ones able to hit 35 TD more than once. Brady may well have set a record that may never be broken (largest single season drop-off in TD passes from 50 to 0).

As crazy as it may sound, Brady could actually approach his video game like numbers of 2007, as there are some legitimate reasons to argue that his situation has improved. While unlikely, there are several factors that could play into Brady having another great season.

Despite scoring a league record 589 points in 2007, the Patriots have somehow managed to upgrade their offense. The new cast of characters includes RB Fred Taylor, WR Joey Galloway, WR Greg Lewis, rookie WR Brandon Tate, TE Alex Smith, and TE Chris Baker. In terms of offensive line personnel, New England has kept their core line in tact (the same one that had three Pro Bowl linemen in 2007).

Brady, Randy Moss, and Wes Welker had little time together before putting up their crazy numbers in their one full season together. Both Moss and Welker seemed to have a sixth sense about them and were able to break off routes mid-play to find an open spot on the field, and that should continue this year.

As for Moss, he and Brady have been having private workouts together this offseason, and have held at least a dozen such sessions to get back on the same page, work on routes, and solidify their timing. In mini-camp, Pats defenders have made comments that Moss is almost impossible to cover because he and Brady instinctively know where to go and how to throw the ball to elude coverage.

The Patriots defense is going through a bit of a metamorphosis. Rodney Harrison, Mike Vrabel, Juniot Seau (at least for now), Ellis Hobbs, and Roosevelt Colvin are gone, as are some stop gap players that didn't work out. The Patriots line backing corps and secondary have been turned over quite a bit in the last year or two, and some expects think that may result in a defense that yields more points. Brady may have to pass to stay in games some weeks to outscore better opponents, much like he had to do in the latter part of 2007 when New England was trying to hold on to perfection. The schedule looks tough on paper heading into the season, another sign that passing may be more of a requirement than an option.

The latest reports as of July have Brady ahead of schedule and able to physically do all the things he needs to do or used to do on his repaired knee. He still is working the kinks out in terms of timing, rhythm, and accuracy. Brady could require a knee brace from here on out that could hamper his mobility some. He's never been much of a true running quarterback, but he had previously mastered elusiveness in the pocket to sidestep oncoming pass rushers. The biggest difference in Brady currently vs. Brady circa 2007 has been his accuracy, and he has yet to regain his pinpoint precision on a consistent basis that he was known for in the past. But that likely will return later on this year once he gets readjusted to live action.

How the Pats move forward offensively will go a long way in accurately projecting Brady's 2009 totals. Many people think New England will shift their philosophy to more of a run-centric offense, as the Pats now have a stable of capable running backs with Taylor, Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk, Laurence Maroney, and Ben Jarvis Green-Ellis. Most people also believe that New England will tone down the offense and run more with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels moving on and the Pats trying to minimize the strain on Brady.

However, reading the tea leaves and delving into the psyche of head coach Bill Belichick, New England should again be out to prove that they are the team to beat and will want to strike fear in opponents. They have lost the fear factor that they once had, and many teams look at the Patriots as just another tough opponent, but not one that they dread facing.

Another key factor that has gone the wrong direction for the Patriots has been home field advantage. New England went 22-0 in their back-to-back championship seasons in 2003 and 2004. In 2005, 2006, and 2008, the Patriots lost three home games in each of those years. In 2007, New England won all their home games, with an average margin of victory of nearly 22 ppg.

Positives

• Key cog in a record-scoring offense that may have improved personnel-wise with the proverbial "chip on their shoulders" and "something to prove."
• With Randy Moss and Wes Welker to play pitch and catch to (and more reps this time around to build rapport), big numbers for Brady are a sure thing, how big is the question
• Prior to last season, Brady ranked as a Top 12 fantasy QB for six straight years, ranking second in total fantasy points scored in that time with 2,002 fantasy points (behind only Peyton Manning with 2,174 points)

Negatives

• Major knee surgery, complications, and a long time away from live action probably spells rust and some uncertainty
• Few QBs ever have dream seasons like Brady did in 2007. Having a second is even rarer (even if he were fully healthy)
• New England could run more throughout the game with an improved rushing attack. It's in the Patriots best interest to sit Brady late in games and run the ball to kill the clock

Final Thoughts

Given that the Patriots would like to earn back their street cred as the team to beat, I expect New England to come out both guns blazing and airing the ball out (like they started to do last year before Brady got hurt). I suspect the Pats will use the pass extensively and then run to keep teams honest. Against weaker teams, New England may build a lead and this time around elect to run much more in the second half. It stands to reason that the smart thing to do with a three touchdown lead in the fourth quarter would be to sit Brady, and we may start seeing that this season. The Patriots should be smart enough to realize that no Brady in the post-season equals little to no chance of a league title.

Another 50 TD season seems highly improbable. I project that the Patriots may approach their total offensive yardage from the 2007 season but score at a lower rate. They may turn the ball over more (they only had 15 turnovers that year) and have more field goal attempts, but another run at 500 total points scored for New England could be forthcoming.

Brady's health will frighten off some potential fantasy owners, but all signs currently suggest that he will be under center (or in New England's case in the shotgun) on Opening Day. There is some extra risk given his health, but Brady should again have plenty of multi-touchdown games this season.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Ministry of Pain:
He has Randy Moss and Wes Welker to throw to, then has Joey Galloway and Greg Lewis in the 3 and 4 holes...they have beefed up the TE position, someone is going to be reliable,and he has a plethora of backs at his disposal for different situations. Fred Taylor, Sammy Morris, and Fred Taylor has a total of 11 TDs rushing last season, who knows about Maroney...but even lets say the Pats can avg 1 rushing TD a game.

Now let's talk about the defense. It is very strong along the DL, pretty good at LB, and pretty unknown at DB...I think the Pats are going to be suspect in the secondary and just might have to put 24-30 on the board many weeks to win. Not to mention that Coach Potato Sack isn't shy about scoring until the other team waves the white flag.

I think Brady can easily have about 3800-4200 yds, 28-35 TDs, maybe more, and there really are not many QBs that can throw for 30+ TDs. Remember everyone was gung ho about Big Ben reaching 30 again and he didn't clear 20. Brady is money and other than Drew Brees who is losing WRs to injuries left and right, I can't think of another QB I would rather have this season. Schedule plays out well too...remember they didn't win the division or even make the playoffs last year. Payback is a #####, and the NFL is going to get a big dose of Brady this year.

rzrback77:
Tom Brady is a tough call. The fact that he hurt his knee in the very first game and will have a full twelve months to recover helps, but with injuries you just never know what the total effect will be. I just can't see drafting Brady at his current ADP of QB2 and 21 overall. There are just too many options out there and the risk is too great. Consider how slowly Peyton Manning started last year if you think that Brady is immune.

He has great weapons and typically the Patriots throw and throw and then throw some more, but I just can't sign up.

a_troll00:
The early part of the season will most likely be pretty rough for Brady. Not only because of rust, his bum leg needs to get back into shape as well. If he's not able to really step into his throws that will definitely affect is distance and accuracy. He may be back into form come midseason, but anyone who spends a first round pick on him will probably be disappointed.

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