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Spotlight - WR Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs

Posted on 6/25, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Mark Wimer's Thoughts

Dwayne Bowe caught at least 2 passes in every game last season, and averaged 5.4 catches per game - he saw almost 10 pass targets per game, on average, as well. While he only produced 2 100+ yards-receiving games, week 8 vs. the Jets (10 targets for 6/102/0) and in week 17 vs. Cincinnati (14 targets for 10/103/0), Bowe was a reliable source of fantasy points week in and week out during 2008. He increased his targets to 157 last season (up 40 opportunities over 2007) and hauled in 16 more receptions (managing 86/1022/7), finishing above 1,000 yards receiving for the first time in his career. Bowe accomplished a lot during his sophomore season, especially considering the motley crew of QBs that he worked with during 2008 (Tyler Thigpen, Damon Huard, Brodie Croyle and Quinn Gray). Now that Bowe's got two years of NFL experience under his belt, Bowe is a savvy veteran. Reports out of Kansas City indicate that he is approaching OTAs and minicamps with great intensity, saying that he's 'not joking around' this season.

This year, the Chiefs are undergoing an overhaul by new head coach Todd Haley. To solidify their QB situation, the Chiefs acquired Matt Cassel from New England. Cassel exploded on the NFL scene last year as the replacement for injured Tom Brady, and racked up 327/516 for 3693 yards, 21 TDs and 11 interceptions (8th-most passing yards in the NFL last season). In contrast, the Chiefs' top QB during 2008, Tyler Thigpen, only managed 230/420 for 2608 yards, 18 TDs and 12 interceptions (25th-ranked in passing yards last season). The new QB depth chart is a significant upgrade over last year's unit.

They also traded disgruntled TE Tony Gonzalez to the Falcons, which is going to mean that there are a lot of passes that used to go Gonzalez's way that will likely now flow to the WRs (Brad Cottam is no Tony Gonzalez, with 6/73/0 receiving in his career to date). The rising tide of passes under the Haley regime (Herm Edwards' game plans were extremely conservative, whereas Haley's system features the WRs more) should lift Bowe to new heights this year. He's the clear number one WR on the team, with Mark Bradley penciled in as the other starter. Bobby Engram and Devard Darling are the two players vying for the third WR slot. The Chiefs waited until late in the draft to address the WR (Quinten Lawrence in the sixth round, from McNeese State) and TE (Jake O'Connell in the 7th round, from Miami of Ohio) positions - both players are likely to be developmental projects rather than instant contributors. Bowe is clearly going to be heavily involved in the offense from the first game of regular season - the Chiefs don't have many other viable options for Cassel to target.

Therein lies a potential problem for Bowe and Bowe owners - now that Gonzalez is gone, he's going to get a lot of attention from opposing defensive coordinators and defensive backs. Until the Chiefs threaten the defense with other weapons, Bowe is likely to see a lot of double teams. If Larry Johnson can return to top form, that would help keep defenses honest - we'll see how he looks during preseason. Bradley set career highs last year (his first in KC), but the numbers were pretty modest (62 targets for 30/380/3) - he's going to have to elevate his game in order to help spring Bowe loose.

Positives

• Bowe improved in his second season (no sophomore slump here) and looks like he's become one of the elite NFL receivers entering 2009
• Bowe will be playing in a more pass-intensive attack this year, with a huge upgrade at the QB position
• The departure of Tony Gonzalez to Atlanta likely means that Bowe's opportunities will increase significantly this year

Negatives

• As the standout receiver on this team, Bowe is likely to garner extra attention from defensive backs each week
• The entire team is learning a new offense and is breaking in a new quarterback - there will probably be some hiccups before everything runs smoothly in K.C. A slow start out of the gates is possible
• Now that fantasy owners have put Bowe on their radar, his ADP has risen considerably (WR11 at press time). It isn't going to be likely that you can get Bowe at a discounted spot during 2009, which means there isn't a lot of upside to selecting him

Final Thoughts

Bowe is an exciting young player entering the prime of his career. Assuming that Matt Cassel and he develop good chemistry this year, Bowe is very likely to see a huge number of passing targets. Even with more attention from opposing defensive backs, it would be surprising to see him not go over 90 receptions this season. He'll generate a reliable stream of fantasy points, especially in PPR leagues.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

dansav:
You couldn't ask for a better #2 WR on your fantasy team and you could argue he is a #1 on a team depending on league size and scoring. Last year he had 3 different QBs throwing him the ball and he still went for 86/1022/7. I see the Cassel/Bowe combo for many years to come. Last years stat line can easily be duplicated even with no Gonzo (addition by subtraction) and his red zone targets will increase. I see him going around the 12th WR of the board (Fitz,Moss,Wayne,Calvin Johnson,Andre Johnson,Boldin, TO,Jennings,Roddy White, and Colston) which put him in the 1B WR or 2nd tier bucket.

Winning IS Everything:
Bowe has made great strides in his first two years in the league, and should only get better. If he is going to become elite, he will need to improve on the 54% rec/target ratio. If Bowe can improve this, the sky is the limit as he has the size, speed and drive to be very good. The addition of Cassel adds stability to the QB position this year that has not been there. I will give a modest bump to his numbers for my projection this year.

fightingillini:
Dwayne Bowe's fantasy prospects for 2009 are intriguing. Tremendous upside. With Tony Gonzalez being traded to ATL, Bowe becomes the undisputed #1 target in the KC offense. But I have some questions:

1) Can he beat the expected double teams?
2) How will the new KC offense come into place?
3) How quickly will he get in synch with Cassel?
4) Will another WR step up to take pressure off of Bowe?

I have no doubt that Bowe has the talent to be a upper echelon WR. BTW, some of the projections from previous posters are insane. Could he catch 100+ passes? Sure, he has that type of upside. But a lot of things have to go right for that to happen.

I would love to have this guy as my WR2. His ADP of WR11 is about right.

rzrback77:
I am happy to own Dwayne Bowe is one of the survivor leagues lookiing over these projections. I am sure that folks are applying the addition of Matt Cassell and the loss of Gonzo for their projections for of Dwayne Bowe. One interesting fact is that Bowe was third in the NFL last season in targets. I guess that it makes sense to add more targets, but I think that the 154 to Gonzo will likely find their way to Bradley, Engam, and the RBs since Bowe already averaged almost ten targets per game.

I do think that Bowe will provide value as his current ADP is WR11 and 28 overall. He definitely has the potential of a top five finiish if the Chiefs can improve just a little offensively. It is certainly tempting to grab two WRs in the first three rounds in drafts for the 09 season.

CalBear:
Everyone is predicting equivalent or better numbers for Bowe from last year, and it's hard to argue with that. He gets a clear QB upgrade (though how much of an upgrade remains to be seen), and loses his main competition for targets. He also gets a new head coach who helped craft the league's best passing offense in Arizona last year. One might argue that the loss of Gonzo will reduce the amount of open space on the field, but considering that Bowe averaged a pedestrian 11.9 ypr in 2008 (after 14.2 in his rookie year), I can't justify bumping him down on that stat either. He's got a lot of talent, and now has the best QB of his career throwing to him, and a passing-minded coach. He looks like a candidate for a big breakout in 2009.

Dwayne Bowe Projections