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Spotlight - WR Anquan Boldin, Baltimore Ravens

Posted on 7/23, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Colin Dowling's Thoughts

When you're a long-time football fanatic, it becomes more and more difficult to be impressed during the regular season. Sure, a 3 touchdown game by a receiver or a 150-yard rushing performance by a running back might get your attention (especially if you own the player on your squad) but for the most part, week-in and week-out, there isn't much that happens in football likely to really make you take notice. But try this one on for size:

Anquan Boldin got crushed by two New York Jets' safeties in Week 4 and had his face broken. The damage was so severe that his team's quarterback, Kurt Warner, blamed his bad pass for the incident and considered quitting the game of football because he felt so bad. Ever the competitor, Boldin had a metal plate put in his face to repair the carnage and returned to the field less then a month later.

Let me repeat: the man had a metal plate put in his face and only missed two games.

Color me impressed.

Not long ago, Reggie Wayne was the number two receiver for the Colts behind Marvin Harrison yet still warranted high consideration in fantasy drafts because his production, even with a great receiver opposite him, was still top-tier. The same can be said now of Anquan Boldin; even with the game's top receiver in Larry Fitzgerald lining up on the far side of the field, Anquan Boldin still warrants consideration as a WR1 for your fantasy team.

Boldin's current average draft position (ADP) is as the ninth receiver selected, right at the turn between rounds two and three. Unfortunately, Boldin's particular case is unique among players selected in the first four rounds of most drafts in that his ADP is either much too high or far too low. Not including 2004 when his season was cut short by injury, Boldin has finished as high as 4th and as low as 19th among receivers. But his stellar season in 2008 (1,038 yards and 11 touchdowns in only 12 games) loses its luster when you also consider that he only has 29 touchdowns in 68 other career games. For comparison's sake, Braylon Edwards (available almost two rounds later) has 28 touchdowns in 58 career games.

Anquan Boldin's position as a starting receiver in what has been one of the game's most potent passing attacks means he should get his opportunities to produce both yards and touchdowns. Similarly, his talent is undeniable -- even with Larry Fitzgerald as the team's top option, Boldin still manages more then six receptions per game. In the event he can play in all 16 games, Boldin would net close to 100 receptions for the season. Add in that Boldin will likely face the other team's second best cornerback and almost never face double-coverage. For a player of Boldin's clear physical talents, this combination should set the table great fantasy success.

On the flip side, Anquan Boldin's career is littered with injuries. His team also has a new offensive coordinator and a new running back to utilize in Chris Wells. And if that's not enough, with history as our guide we already know that it will be Fitzgerald and not Boldin that will be the first option in the passing game near the goal line. Add in that Anquan Boldin's contract situation and request to be traded continue to hang over the team and putting a fine point on his prospects for the 2009 season becomes nearly impossible.

Positives

• An undeniable "gamer" in every sense of the word. Boldin is as tough as they come and if he's physically able, he'll be on the field playing at a high level
• Excellent receptions-per-game average over the course of his career. Six receptions each week leads to lots of yards and should lead to plenty of scoring chances
• Has shown the ability to excel even with Larry Fitzgerald across the field; Boldin has two top-10 finishes with Fitzgerald on the roster

Negatives

• Contract situation is still up in the air, which could sink his season all together if it remains unresolved
• With Fitzgerald on the roster, Boldin's upside is compressed a little; he's not likely to be the first option in goal-line passing situations more then a handful of times each season
• New offensive coordinator, new running back...will Boldin still be a prominent piece of the offense if the Cardinals continue moving to a more balanced attack?
• Boldin has missed 16 games in six seasons and has only played a full season twice. Boldin plays hard every snap and as a result, he ends up injured more then his fair share

Final Thoughts

The question to answer this preseason when considering Boldin is this: Will he be on the Cardinals' roster? Will he stay healthy? Will he have chances to find the end zone? And will the new offensive coordinator and revamped backfield greatly cut in to his scoring opportunities? For a player being considered as a top-10 receiver, Anquan Boldin certainly has a lot of significant questions, wouldn't you say? While Boldin is no doubt a worthy choice to be your team's WR1, selecting him as high as WR9 in the 2nd round could be a bit of a gamble. And while we love watching Anquan Boldin play and admire his tenacity, he is a prime example of the adage that "you can't win your draft in the early rounds but you can certainly lose it." Boldin is a great player, but be careful drafting him too high. It's easy to make the argument that he is just as likely to under-produce as overproduce.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

rzrback77:
Anquan Boldin is an awesome player. He is also in an awesome situation. He is talented enough to demand coverage by the other team's top CB, yet that guy is often on the other side of the field covering Fitzgerald. The fact is that he and Fitz both should demand double coverage, but the other team can't afford to do that.

I think that he will stay with the Cardinals and that the wondrous aerial attack with Warner, Fitz, Boldin, and Breaston will continue. The Arizona travel schedule last year was brutal as they made repeated cross country trips and it should be so difficult travel wise in 09.

Anquan Boldin is another guy that you have to be high on as he has a current ADP of WR9, but he is one of the most productive per game WRs over the past several seasons. He does get injured as he plays with reckless abandon, but he may slide a little there and be more Marvin Harrisonish following that brutal collison last year and the fact that he is looking forward to free agency.

Coach Pantusso:
A stud...but a little less studly than his counterpart. That is great value, especially in a point per reception league. While other owners pass on him real early*, you can draft him with confidence knowing that despite all his injuries, he was still targeted as frequently in the regular season and playoffs (Super Bowl not included) as Fitz in the games he was healthy (140 to 138). Additionally, while Fitzgerald catches a very respectable 60% of the passes in his direction, Boldin has caught near 70% of his targets over the last 2 seasons (even when Leinart was at QB). Great PPR WR, just doesn't get the same number of looks in the RZ as Fitz, but few WR in the league do.

David Yudkin, FBG Staff:
Just to clarify to people, there really is not much difference between Boldin and Fitzgerald, and they should be viewed as WR1 and WR1A for the Cardinals.

In the Warner/Fitz/Boldin era, (4 years), here is the breakdown.

Fitz: 9.9 targets, 12.5 fantasy ppg
Boldin: 10.1 targets, 12.1 fantasy ppg

Over the course of an entire season, if both produced at that level for all 16 games, Fitz would only outscore Boldin by 6 fantasy points. Of course, Boldin has missed more time, which makes Fitz the obvious better option and earlier draft pick. But their production has been as close to equal as you can get.

Jeff Tefertiller, FBG Staff:
For me, it is about fantasy production, not "talent". That is a different argument all together. But, if we look at pure stats in 2008, we see that in the 12 games both played, Boldin outscored Fitz in eight. Since I do not hold the hit in the Jet game (and missing 2 games subsequently), I do not discount Boldin for only playing 12 games.

Anquan Boldin Projections