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Spotlight - WR Bernard Berrian, Minnesota Vikings

Posted on 7/20, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Mark Wimer's Thoughts

There are a lot of reasons to like Bernard Berrian this year as a third fantasy WR with lots of upside. During his first season playing in Minnesota, Berrian compiled 48/964/7 receiving (a jaw-dropping 20.1 yards-per-catch), while working with the sub-par quarterbacking tandem of Tarvaris Jackson and Gus Frerotte.

Berrian also boasted an impressive yards after catch average of 6.8 yards per reception, equal to Wes Welker's as an example. This year, he'll benefit from a full season of experience in the Minnesota offense, and the team has moved aggressively to upgrade the talent at the QB position during the offseason with the signing of Sage Rosenfels and the much discussed courting of Brett Favre.

Whoever ends up calling the signals for Minnesota this year (whether it is ultimately Favre or Rosenfels), the Vikings will have a more dynamic passer under center - which should mean more opportunities for Berrian. He had 95 targets last year, but handled as many as 127 during his years in Chicago, where he topped out at 70 receptions for 948 yards and 5 TDs. He should easily add 15-25 receptions to his totals this year, though his average yards per reception is likely to recede back towards his career average of 16.0 per catch. However, Berrian does play his home games in the Metrodome on turf, so he could exceed his career average significantly if he manages to snag several deep balls again during 2009.

He's proven to everyone that he has the capability to gain big chunks of yardage and the 2008 YAC figure has to make the coaches comfortable calling his number many times each game.

Berrian is an explosive weapon for the Vikings, as you can see from the aforementioned details of his 2008 campaign - but he doesn't draw a huge amount of coverage as defenses have to concentrate on the lethal Minnesota running game and also worry about TE Visanthe Shiancoe. The Vikings were third in the NFL last year with 519 rushing attempts and fifth in the league with 2,332 yards. With Adrian Peterson, the consensus #1 fantasy player this year, on the roster, the Vikings won't stop running the ball aggressively. Shiancoe had a breakout season with career highs across the board (59 targets for 42 receptions, 596 yards, a very impressive 14.2 yards-per-reception average, and 7 TDs). There is so much for opposing defensive coordinators to worry about in the short- to medium-yard range that Berrian has ample opportunity to go (and find space to maneuver) deep down the field.

Along with the upgrade at QB, fellow WR Sidney Rice is said to finally be overcoming the knee injury that hampered him throughout 2008, and the team added intriguing talent Percy Harvin via the 2008 draft. The improving talent surrounding Berrian at WR coupled with the other offensive weapons will keep him from suffering from too much attention by opposing DBs. He could be poised to post a career year - he has a very high ceiling in my opinion, and yet because of the improvements on the offense, it's hard to see him catching fewer than 50 balls again this year (barring injury). Berrian has nowhere to go but up, making him a relatively low risk option.

Positives

• Berrian should be more comfortable in his 2nd season as a Viking, making him more instinctive in his routes. Being where he's supposed to be more often should help boost his reception totals
• The team around Berrian has improved significantly already and the Vikings may add a perennial All-Pro QB to the mix later this summer
• Berrian is only 28 years old and is entering his 6th NFL season - he's in the prime of his career right now. He's played in 47 out of 48 possible regular-season games over the last 3 years, with 32 games played out of 32 possible over the last 2 seasons - he's a durable, dependable player

Negatives

• Brett Favre didn't 'wow' us in New York last year (especially in the 2nd half of the season) - if he attempts to come back but his passing arm fizzles out again, Berrian could face turmoil at the most important position on the field late in the season (during fantasy playoffs)
• If Percy Harvin is the next Randy Moss, Berrian's role could be reduced as the year goes along
• Minnesota plays at Carolina in week 15 and at Chicago's Soldier Field in week 16 (often a brutal venue for passing attacks during December due to arctic cold and howling winds). That isn't a particularly favorable slate of games during fantasy playoffs

Final Thoughts

Bernard Berrian is currently going as the 28th fantasy WR off the board (according to Footballguys.com's consensus average draft position as of July 14th, 2009). He should easily match his draft position, production-wise, but has significant upside potential from there. He's a guy that I am going to target in all of my drafts this season as 3rd wideout.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Blackjacks:
I got to think if Favre goes to Minnesota his stock rises alot. Berrian is a great deep threat and Favre likes to wing it. The opposing team will always have to worry about the run first when playing against Minn. and now with Harvin on the other side Berrian should be seeing single coverage.

I actually really like Berrian this year to break intot he top 20 and maybe the top 15

Jason Wood, Senior Writer:
Berrian did a lot with less than 100 targets last year, including a monstrous YPC and ample YAC considering he was usually the deep option. While he's not the most polished route runner, the thought of what he could do catching passes from a HEALTHY Brett Favre has to have fantasy owners salivating. I know I for one will be targeting Berrian at his current ADP provided Favre comes back and shows us enough in camp to prove his shoulder is OK. In the event Favre doesn't save, er, play for Minnesota, I would temper my enthusiasm and think 1,000-yards would be too aggressive a forecast.

Bernard Berrian Projections