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Spotlight - RB Marion Barber, Dallas Cowboys

Posted on 7/23, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jeff Haseley's Thoughts

For Marion Barber, the 2008 season was somewhat of a disappointment. Heading into the season, he was touted as a premier featured back that would surely build on his 7th ranked finish in 2007. He was the primary ball carrier for an explosive offense. It was supposed to be a breakout year propelling him to elite fantasy RB status. That wasn't exactly the case. Barber finished the year with a career high in carries (238) and receptions (52), but he had three fewer TDs (9) than the season prior (12) and seven less than the year before that (16). He managed only a 3.7 YPC average, while his rookie teammates amassed 5.1 and a staggering 8.9 yards per carry playing behind the same offensive line.

3.7 YPC - Should this be a concern? Barber's year started off strong, faded in the middle and drastically weakened at the end after he injured his pinkie toe in week 13. Barber is a workhorse. He fights for tough extra yards on every run. He withstands a barrage of continuous carries to wear down a defense and he has a nose for the end zone. Perhaps the reason for his decline last year was due to the absence of Tony Romo, who was out with a broken pinkie finger for a four week stretch between weeks six through eleven. Romo's absence caused the Cowboys offense to struggle, which also implicated Barber and the running game. Barber has a career 4.3 YPC average. His rushing production should bounce back in 2009, especially if the offense doesn't skip a beat without WR Terrell Owens.

Despite the somewhat disappointing year, Barber was not a fantasy bust as evidenced below...

• He finished as the 16th ranked RB, despite being hampered by a toe injury that kept him all but sidelined in weeks 14, 15 and 16
• He scored a TD or reached 100+ total yards in eight of the 12 games that he was healthy
• His reception total reached 52, surpassing his previous career high of 44 a season prior

What can we expect from Barber in 2009? The Cowboys have good depth at the RB position, including a healthy Felix Jones, who averaged an impressive 8.9 yards per carry on 30 carries as a rookie. Jones is back healthy after injuring his hamstring and should see an increased role in the offense. He won't necessarily be replacing Barber, but complimenting him with his speed and quickness. Barber is projected to reach upwards of 225-240 carries once again, but without WR Terrell Owens, the effectiveness of their passing game could decline. As a result the improving and talented running game could become more of a focus point in the offense. If that happens, Barber could be in for a big year.

What role will second year RBs Felix Jones and Tashard Choice have - and how will that affect Barber's carries?

There is no doubt that the Cowboys are planning on giving Jones an increased role in the offense, but make no mistake, Barber is still the team's first option between the 20's, in the red zone and late in games. Tashard Choice is considered to be Barber's primary backup. It's Choice who would replace Barber's role in the offense if he (Barber) were to get injured. Choice spelled Barber last year and was effective, rushing for 472 yards on 92 carries (5.1 YPC). If Choice is given carries on a regular basis, Barber's carry totals could be closer to 200 than 240. Should that be a concern? If he scores TDs, it shouldn't be a concern at all. In 2006, he only totaled 135 carries, yet he scored 16 TDs. Last year he had 204 carries and still finished as the 16th best RB.

Fantasy speaking - what can Marion Barber give you? Last year he was being drafted as a first round pick. This year his draft position is middle of the second round in 12-team redraft leagues (ADP 20-RB14). If drafting in the 5, 6 or 7 spot, you could take a RB1 with your first pick and then go right back to the RB well with Barber as your RB2 at pick 18, 19 or 20. Barber is an excellent RB2 that can provide RB1 stats any given week. He will consistently produce either yardage or TDs and in some cases both. If he can do that as your RB2, you're in great shape.

Positives

• Barber is a great RB2 selection. He provides a consistent scoring threat for your team and is a force in PPR leagues as evidenced by his 44 and 52 receptions in each of the last two years
• The Cowboys running game could be on the upswing due to the release of Terrell Owens, which minimizes the deep receiving threat. Owens also scored a lot of TDs in the red zone, which will have to be replaced by someone. Why not the team's best ball carrier in the red zone - Barber?
• Consistency - Barber has 18 double-digit fantasy point games (non PPR) in his last two years - nine in each season. He has averaged 12.3 TDs per season in his last three years, never having less than nine TDs in a year

Negatives

• Barber may score a lot of TDs, but the number of scores has decreased in each of the last three years (16, 12, 9). He is also coming off a career worst 3.7 YPC
• The Cowboys possess three talented RBs that could limit Barber's carries to the low 200s. That could be the difference between a Top 8 and Top 15 finish
• The departure of Terrell Owens could have a negative effect on the running game. If the Cowboys passing game struggles or simply declines compared to seasons past with Owens, opposing defenses could put their focus on stopping the run. If that happens, the running game could suffer and Barber's production would likely decrease, perhaps drastically

Final Thoughts

Marion Barber has been a consistent scoring threat for Dallas in each of the last three years. While his production has decreased, he is still very much a strong option as a weekly starting RB for your fantasy team. This year he can be selected in the second round, which could make him a RB2 for teams that decide to go that route. The Dallas depth chart at RB is loaded with talent, but Barber is still expected to be the team's primary option, especially in the red zone and late in games. He may not see upwards of 240 carries and that could keep him from being a Top 10 RB.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

5-ish Finkle:
Don't get me wrong, on the field, I think Barber is a beast. He's a violent, bowling ball with dreads, and while that is what makes him a good football player, it is also what ultimately limits him. His violent style does not lend itself to remaining healthy. Last year was a prime example. After Week 12 his play/touches fell way off, in part because the poundings he was taking piled up. He only missed 1 game outright, IIRC, but he was limited in at least 3 or 4 others down the stretch.

He was right around RB15 last season with near 300 touches, and career highs in just about everything except TDs and YPA, without Felix Jones around for a large portion of the year. I can't see him improving on the stats he had a year ago if Jones is healthier, so I don't expect that he'll be finishing with many more, if any more, fantasy points than he did in 2008 either.

TDs are unpredictable, and that's where he COULD make some hay over last season, but I'm more inclined to believe that his production goes down due to Jones, and even Choice, being sprinkled in more liberally to not only keep Barber healthier down the stretch, but because both those guys are pretty good in their own right. We'll likely see his touches go down some, but he'll probably have a better shot to be fresher the last quarter of the season because of it.

travdogg:
There may not be a player I like less at their ADP than Barber. Why does everyone get so excited about this guy? He's going into his 5th year and has never gone over 1,000 rushing yards in a season. He's also finished below 4 yards per carry twice in four years. He also lost a full yard per carry going from "closer" to starter.

Barber runs hard and breaks tackles, but he isn't really a special runner. I thought it was very interesting that Choice averaged over a full yard more per carry, especially since his starts last year came against far greater defenses than Barber faced. I don't think Choice is anything special, but he sure looked productive at a time when Barber wasn't. Some of that had do to do with Barber's injury, but not all of it. The fact is Barber isn't that explosive through the hole and while it often takes multiple defenders to take him down, its not as though multiple defenders have a difficult time catching him.

But aside from all that, the biggest reason I'm down on Barber is Felix Jones. I think people are sleeping on how good Felix is. Which is great because you can get him at least 3-4 rounds later than Barber, and I believe get similar if not better production.

Dallas is almost certain to run more this season with TO gone. While they will pass more effectively and more often, I could see the 2009 Cowboys offense resembling the 2008 Titans offense. I don't think Choice sees any real playing time unless Jones or Barber get hurt. I think Felix will be the starter and Barber will go back to his "closer" role. However, Felix will do far more with the starting role than Julius ever did.

rzrback77:
Marion Barber is a beast of a running back. He is one of my favorite guys to watch play the position. He runs hard and is explosive. He has excellent moves and vision. He is at his best near the goal line as witnessed by his 42 career TDs in only four years of play and he is a very good receiver out of the backfield. He has finished as the RB14, RB7, and RB16 in the most recent three years, while rarely getting 20 carries per game. Combine this with the fact that his current ADP is RB14 and something doesn't quite add up.

The guessing game as to why Barber is not more highly ranked is due to the other Cowboy RBs. Last season, first round draft pick Felix Jones was exceptional in limited action before being injured. He averaged 8.9 yards per carry. His quickness was top grade and he could be a game changer that gets more opportunities in 09. Later in the season, with Barber and Jones both out, Tashard Choice also exhibited skills. He had 92 carries on the season for 472 yards averaging 5.1 ypc.

Now a closer look at Barber's career numbers:
05 13 gms 138 carries 538 yds 3.9 ypc 5 TDs 25 targets 18 catches 115 yds 6.4 ypc 0 TDs RB35
06 16 gms 135 carries 654 yds 4.8 ypc 14 TDs 32 targets 23 catches 196 yds 8.5 ypc 2 TDs RB14
07 16 gms 204 carries 975 yds 4.8 ypc 10 TDs 54 targets 44 catches 282 yds 6.4 ypc 2 TDs RB7
08 15 gms 238 carries 885 yds 3.7 ypc 7 TDs 61 targets 52 catches 417 yds 8.0 ypc 2 TDs RB16

It appears that he may have tired some with the additional touches in 08, but is that a true detriment to his value. Even if both Jones and Choice get opportunities, will Barber's be reduced sufficiently to impact his value or will it allow him to be more effective with a slightly decreased workload? Jones averaged 6 touches per game in his six games. Choice's averages are elevated as he saw much more action late and he also averaged 6 per game. Many have anticipated that the Cowboys will run more in 09, so even if Jones sees 10-12 per game and Choice keeps his 6 per game, wouldn't there still be almost 20 per game left for Barber? This situation could result in Barber's ADP dropping in August as reports come in about the other two. It could lead to a third round bargain at RB.

TheDirtyWord:
Barber to me is player that is very difficult to get a handle on. When finally given the starters role in 2008, I don't think he performed as well as when he was used when Julius Jones was the starter. Even before his toe injury, Barber was middling in the 3.9 YPC average. He had become a bigger factor in the passing game and while he still seemed to be running hard, I did feel that some of his ferocity was gone.

So the things I know about the Dallas Cowboys on offense are:

1) They have a matinee idol at QB who they are invested in heavily, both from a 'face of the franchise' and financial POV. So I expect for him to still put up 525-550 attempts.
2) Barber is also heavily invested in by the Cowboys (7 yrs; $45M).
3) While they lost TO, the idea is that Roy Williams will now be their WR1. So essentially, from a talent perspective, their WR depth chart changes very little from 2008 training camp.
4) Jason Witten is arguably the best TE in the game
5) Their 1st round pick in 2008 is from the same university as the owner, and has a great complimentary game to Barber's smashmouth style.
6) Tashard Choice played extremely well in Barber's absense (62/325/2; 17/163/0 in last 4 games).
7) Wade Phillips seat is EXTREMELY hot.

It was wise of Barber to get his contract when he did because his role was about to change to a more featured role in the offense. But I wonder if he would have gotten that contract if Bill Parcells was still with the Cowboys. Up until 2008, Barber had started 3 games in 3 seasons. You can argue that Michael Turner was just as untested as a starter, but he was actually a FA. Barber had one year left on his deal at the time and in a worse case scenario, could have been franchised. I bring this up because I think the Cowboys are gradually slipping back into being a rudderless organization without a true 'football man' leader. For all their talent, I don't know if the Cowboys have an identity on offense. They can do alot of things well, but I'm not sure they have that one part of their game they turn to when they absolutely need to count on something.

Overall, I still love Barber's game...how can you not. But he did breakdown when his role changed and become more prominent and it's clear the Cowboys are stacked with talent at his position, not to mention others. So I could see a situation where his role reverts back to what he did in 2006/2007. Honestly, is there any need for Barber to have such a big role in the passing game (52 receptions) when you've got Jones/Choice? At the end of the day, I see the Cowboys situation as unstable. They have the talent to rise up again, but I don't know if they have the leadership, both on the field and on the sideline to deal with adversity, which they will invariably face in such a tough division.

Marion Barber Projections