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Spotlight - WR Donnie Avery, St. Louis Rams

Posted on 7/20, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

We start planning for the next football season just a few weeks after the Super Bowl. Had you asked me in early February what I thought of Donnie Avery, I wouldn't have been able to hide my excitement. My GUT would've screamed BREAKOUT STAR!

He was the top WR drafted in his class. He got valuable time as a starter in his rookie season. Torry Holt was released this offseason opening the door for Avery to be the unquestioned top target. And the team jettisoned the losing culture and brought aboard a new coaching staff including a former protege of proven Eagles coach Andy Reid.

Sounds like a recipe for a breakout performer, right?

Well, it's a good thing I didn't write this article in February because as I started really analyzing the 2009 league, and the Rams situation in particular, I've had no choice but to temper my enthusiasm for Avery.

Don't get me wrong, I think he has the capacity to be a solid WR1 for a lot of years in the league. But what we need to know is whether Avery can be a solid FANTASY WR in 2009.

And that's a hard thing to bet on.

Let's discuss the reasons my enthusiasm has been tempered:

1) Avery's supporting cast is suspect
The Rams were woeful last year and are more than a new coach and a few rookies from contending. Donnie Avery is going to be thrust into the WR1 role which means more potential targets, but it also means opposing defenses will be able to scheme against him. With only Keenan Burton and Laurent Robinson competing for WR2, you have to think Avery's chances at single coverage will be few and far between

2) Marc Bulger is a beaten man
It wasn't long ago that Marc Bulger was considered a borderline elite fantasy QB. But with each season since Mike Martz has left the Rams, it's been harder and harder to make that case. In the last two seasons, Bulger has completed less than 58% of his passes, thrown only 22 TDs [in 27 starts] against 28 INTs, and his adjusted yards/attempt of 5.3 has been among the worst in the NFL. While the terrible play of his offensive line has been partially to blame, is it fair to put all the blame on that? Bulger was sacked 37 and 38 times respectively in 2007/2008, LESS than the 49 sacks he took in his 4,301 yard, 24 TD season in 2006. Will the addition of mammoth rookie tackle Jason Smith and a new coaching staff really be enough to make Bulger a difference maker again?

3) Avery may not be well suited for the new offense
Donnie Avery is a talent. But his main assets are speed and the ability to track down the ball over his shoulder. He's a blazer ideally suited for a pro style offense where he can make plays outside the hash marks. The Rams are changing the scheme this year, implementing a traditional WCO that will be run by new OC Pat Shurmur. It will be imperative for Avery, and all the wideouts, to generate YAC (yards after the catch). Unfortunately, that wasn't considered one of Avery's strong suits coming out of the University of Houston and his rookie numbers didn't suggest otherwise. Avery only generated 217 yards after the catch last season. Realistically he'll need to double that as WR1 this season or the Rams passing attack will be stymied.

Now that we've gotten the risks out of the way, let me reiterate that Avery IS a promising player and things could certainly play out differently. A lot of people questioned whether Kevin Curtis could succeed in the Eagles WCO when he joined the team as a free agent, but Curtis showed that he could use his deep speed and sharp route running to flourish. Avery is a more talented player, so just because Avery hasn't done well in a WCO yet, doesn't mean he can't.

And even though Avery will be targeted by opposing defenses, that could easily be offset by the sheer number of times he'll be thrown to. Shurmur is coming over form a Philadelphia offense that loves to throw the ball. And even though new HC Steve Spagnuolo has the reputation as a defensive fixer, the Rams project to have a subpar defense again, which means the Rams will HAVE to throw to stay in games.

Positives

• Avery is the clear-cut WR1 on a team that is going to throw the ball a lot
• Avery is a fast, sharp route-runner considered to be the top WR prospect in his draft class a season ago
• The Rams took measures to stabilize the offensive line this offseason, and have brought in a new coaching staff which can only mean improvement after last year's 2-14 debacle

Negatives

• Avery has never been considered good at generating yards after the catch, something he will HAVE to do in the new West Coast offense
• Marc Bulger may no longer be an effective difference maker at QB
• The supporting WR cast leaves much to be desired, Avery is going to get the opposing teams full attention on every down

Final Thoughts

At the end of this season, I wouldn't be at all shocked if Avery has 1,000+ yards and 5+ TDs on the way to a breakout Top 20 fantasy season. In fact, my gut tells me that just might happen. But a more measured, reasonable assessment of his situation and the Rams less-than-stellar outlook has given me pause. I think the key to Avery's fantasy value this year is where you draft him. If you can land him at his current ADP of WR32 (89th pick) or later, then you're in the position of not having to count on him as a starter. In that scenario, I love Avery as a sleeper pick with high upside. But DON'T look at him and think because he's the WR1 and is entering his 2nd year he'll magically be a breakout star. I think there's an excellent chance someone in your league will reach for him too early; don't be that guy.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Dr. Octopus:
While Avery didn't quite make the impact that fellow "smaller" WRs like Eddie Royal and Desean Jackson did during their rookie campaigns, he did show flashes of why he was the first WR drafted. Simply put Avery can fly and showed the ability to get behind defenders and make the big play. On the plus side he should be the first look for QB Marc Bulger - who has shown, if not much else, the ability to get the ball deep - and the Rams should be playing from behind more often than not. It will take more than just Spag's aggressive play calling to turn the defense around in one season. On the flip side Avery will now be the opposing defense's focal point as well. While Holt wasn't the same last season he did command some respect from the defense. In my opinion Avery will be able to handle the task of being a #1 WR and will end up with more than a few highlight reel long TDs next season.

Banger:
Looking at some of these projections I think you guys are coming in way too high. Avery had one HUGE game of 163-1 which made up 30+% of his productivity for the year. Ya, ya, I know you can't discount big plays/big days but his numbers outside of that one day are very pedestrian (no 100 yard games, mostly 5 catches 50 yards). Ya their line was in shambles and it should be better this year but they are not going to be a passing offense by any stretch, they have no one to take pressure off him and he'll likely be doubled where last year I'm sure Holt even in his hobbled state took more coverage than Avery did.

He's a nice wr with some talent but I don't think he's elite and the Rams will probably be among the worst passing offenses in the league (how the mighty have fallen). Even if you draft him he'll be extemely frustrating because with his type of game he'll go 3-29, 4-45, you'll sit him he'll go 6-145-1, you'll start him and he'll go 3-22. He'll have no consistency and I want no part of that from my wrs which is why I've avoided Evans like the plague for years.

These predictions of 1000-7 and 1100-8 would've put him between 13th and 18th last year and I don't think he gets anywhere close to that. Think more along the lines of L. Evans (27th) (63-1017-3), Cotchery (30th) (71-858-5), Housh (31st) (92-904-4).

I'd probably project him for around 65-800-4.5 and finish around 35+ among wrs.

lyon812:
Avery actually had a number of injuries last year. Hip and knee during the season, and I think he had a stress fracture of the pelvis in training camp. That's more of a concern to me than anything else. He even had an injured ankle at the scouting combine. To his credit, he tried to play hurt, but multiple durability flags--in multiple body areas--make me nervous.

He's a homerun threat for sure, and he's agile and quick and elusive....but sometimes he seems better in a complementary role rather than a #1. His routes are a little sloppy and I'm not sold on his strength and ability to hold up in traffic, even though he shows heart and willingness. Routes can improve with time, of course, and I'd love to have my doubts dismissed, as a Rams fan and Avery owner. The improved offensive line can only help him via Bulger. Still, I feel people shouldn't be surprised if Avery doesn't take a great leap forward until 2010.

rzrback77:
Donnie Avery was the first WR taken in the 08 draft and played well for a team that came apart at the seams last year. He had some minor injuries but played in fifteen games (missed week one). He only scored in double digits non-ppr four games, but he averaged 9.67 targets 5.33 catches and 55 yards the last three games. Torry Holt is gone and the currently the Ram WR depth chart has Avery (2nd yr), Burton (2nd yr) and Robinson (3rd yr 1st with Rams) followed by several even less known guys. With that lack of depth and extreme youth and lack of experience, I see the Rams potentially bringing in another WR prior to the start of the season.

I think that the Ram offense is going to be predicated on Steven Jackson and the offensive line doing well. They will try run a lot and they will throw a lot of swing passes out in the flat. I will be surprised if Avery is called on to be the main man and I think that many projections are too high for him in 09.

Jon_Moore:
I don't like Avery's prospects for this season.

He's a smallish receiver that might not thrive in the redzone. He has great speed, but is there really any reason to believe Marc Bulger is going to be able to get it to him downfield consistently after last year's mess? And if not, are they going to pin their hopes on Kyle Boller? He's got the arm, he's just not good.

Avery had 5 or more catches only 5 times last season. Sure the situation is partially to blame, and while they may have improved the offensive line, the rest of the team isn't substantially different. They lost Torry Holt, so he'll draw the opposing team's #1 corner all season long. How will he handle that?

His 2 biggest games came with no Steven Jackson on the field. If you ignore the first two weeks of the season as he hardly played, and look at the games in which he and Jackson both played, he averaged only 37.5 yards per game. Jackson is by far their best offensive weapon, and they'll want to try to run it early and often this season, as well as throwing it to him out of the backfield.

Donnie Avery Projections