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Spotlight - RB Joseph Addai, Indianapolis Colts

Posted on 7/23, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jeff Pasquino's Thoughts

Joseph Addai has been the top running back for the Indianapolis Colts for the past three years -- but all of that is about to change. You see, I've always contended that Addai was an average back in a great situation -- and nothing more. Last year, the Colts could not even be considered a great offensive juggernaut as they once were with both Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison streaking downfield to catch Peyton Manning touchdowns. Without a strong passing attack, Addai struggled to carry the load and help balance the offense, rushing for only 544 yards and under 4.0 yards per carry - hardly what you should expect from a true feature running back.

Addai's best season came as a rookie; helping Indianapolis get to the Super Bowl. Addai posted over 1,000 yards rushing as a rookie on just 226 carries while catching 40 passes, placing him as the 11th best fantasy RB. Many could look past Dominic Rhodes' secondary role in that offense, taking over 200 touches and nearly 900 yards along with five touchdowns that could have added to Addai's totals. Just a season later Addai was considered a probable fantasy RB1 and he did not disappoint, topping 1,000 yards on the ground and catching 40+ balls in his sophomore season. He finished at RB5, boosted by finding the end zone 12 times.

So with two RB1 campaigns under his belt, what happened last year? The issues were not so much with Addai, but his supporting cast. Indianapolis struggled across the board on offense as Peyton Manning fell short of 30 touchdowns for the first time since 2005 and finishing outside of the Top 5 fantasy quarterbacks for the first time since his rookie year (1998). The drastic decline of Marvin Harrison and a weaker offensive line cost the Colts on offense which directly resulted in Addai's numbers dropping across the board. Carries, receptions, yards and touchdowns all dropped last season -- but the biggest concern had to be Dominic Rhodes' ability to keep pace with Addai's numbers and even top him with 20 extra catches three more touchdowns. So if the Indianapolis offense was struggling, why did Rhodes do just as well as Addai when Addai was so much better in 2006?

General Manager Bill Polian was likely wondering the same thing in his offseason evaluation of the team, and the result was the selection of Donald Brown in the 1st round of the April draft. Brown is the wave of the future -- the only question is whether the future comes in 2009 or 2010. I would not risk my own fantasy team on Addai with Brown chomping at the bit to get playing time this year. Addai is costing fantasy drafters about a fifth round pick, which is way too rich for my blood.

Positives

• Addai has had his best seasons with two capable backs in the backfield, so the addition of rookie Donald Brown may actually help Addai's numbers
• Promotion of Anthony Gonzalez up to starter should help the offense and in turn open running lanes for Addai
• Addai's familiarity with the Colt offense, along with his skill in blitz pickups, will likely position him as the starter for Week 1. Should Addai start quickly for the season he could remain in that role all year

Negatives

• Addai has regressed since his rookie year in yards per carry (YPC), dropping from an impressive 4.8 in 2006 to 4.1 in 2007 and then a miserable 3.5 last season
• General Manager picked Donald Brown for a reason -- and he has a strong track record of selecting good NFL talent. Brown could see work early and often for the Colts
• Addai is likely to start the season in the Colts' backfield, but with first round pick Donald Brown anxious to get playing time he could start over Addai by midseason

Final Thoughts

Joseph Addai should be the starting tailback for the Colts this September -- but it is the following months that are the concern. Addai struggled last season and has proven to be much more effective with a complementary RB to split time. Rookie Donald Brown should at least be capable of filling Dominic Rhodes' role, and Brown could possibly become the feature back that Indianapolis would certainly prefer to have when they run their no-huddle offense. A versatile back that can run, receive and block is required for Peyton Manning's offense to work best, which could save Addai's job in the short term. Brown will have to prove that he is capable of being a three-down back and also protect Manning when he drops back to throw. Addai is a very good blitz pickup guy in the backfield and he knows the Colts offense after being immersed in it for three years. The fear is that Brown will learn quickly and outperform the veteran Addai, pushing him to the sidelines. The best-case scenario for Addai (barring a Brown injury) would be for the Colts to start fast out of the gate and put up big numbers, both on the ground and via the aerial game. Addai was most effective when Manning has had 30+ TD pass seasons, so if the passing game clicks early in the year Addai could find more running lanes and hold off the rookie -- at least for 2009. Odds do favor a committee, however, and fantasy owners should be wary of selecting Addai as a fantasy starter and expecting him to remain in that role all season.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Blackjacks:
I never have liked Addai. I think he is soft, runs up high and can't break a tackle. The one thing he does do good is blocks in the backfield for his qb and when you have a franchise guy back their like Peyton, you protect him. His blocking will keep him on the field, until he gets hurt, and keep Brown behind him for awhile.

MAC_32:
He should get one more opportunity early in the season, Donald Brown's greatest issues are pass blocking and that will keep him on the bench in this offense if not corrected early in camp. That said, if Addai's ineffectiveness and softness return his touches will steadily fall off. Given where I've seen him going in drafts, I'm probably passing, I'm more likely to take a chance on him in a shallow league in which I can more easily replace him. The starting RB in this offense is certainly worth a 4th/5th round pick but that may not be Addai for too long if 2008 is any indicator. A lot of potential reward here, but a ton of risk too.

pizzatyme:
Too many people are writing Addai off too soon. He will start the season as the starter and it will be his job to lose. I look for the Colts offense to be much more effective in both the passing and running games. The line is more seasoned. And Manning is starting the season healthy as in year's past. Addai represents great value going in the 5th round of 12 or 14 team drafts. Too many times people fall in love with the rookie "replacement". While I like Brown to get 30-35% of the touches, Addai will far outperform his current ADP.

Colin Dowling, FBG Staff:
Brown coming on board means that Addai will likely never be a 350 touch back, to which I say, "so what?" I'm not sure anyone envisioned that he would be that kind of runner (at least not for very long) for his career. It seems to me that the only way Addai doesn't offer some decent value in round 5 or so is if Brown overtakes him as a workhorse type of back. While that may be possible, I think that the NFL trend towards getting multiple rushers involved is nothing new to the Colts. Brown may one day be the 60% back to Addai's 40%, but I doubt it will be next season. And if the Colts offense comes together like it has historically, both players could be nice choices on draft day.

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