Ultimate Strength of Schedule (Wide Receivers)
Updated 9/7 by Clayton Gray, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
Quick Links to Other Positions: QB · RB · WR · TE · PK · Def · DB · DL · LB
The advantages offered by the Ultimate Strength of Schedule (USOS) when compared to traditional SOS displays are numerous and include (but are not limited to) the following:
- Fantasy Points Driven
Fantasy football is all about scoring fantasy points, so USOS is based on fantasy points. - Removed Bias Of Schedule
Consider the following scenario: Defense A faced the Top 16 offenses while Defense B faced the Worst 16 offenses. If both defenses allowed opposing QBs to average 300 fantasy points last season, are they equally strong? Of course not - Defense A is far superior as they faced much better offenses. This bias of schedule has been removed from USOS. - Positional Breakdown
If you are looking for a RB, it's much more relevant to see SOS data for RBs (rather than simply rushing data). - Comparison Of 2009 Schedule To 2008 Schedule
On the surface, a team with an easy schedule at RB should see better RB stats this year. Good schedule = bigger numbers than the year before, right? It seems logical. However, sometimes it's not enough to say that a team has an easy schedule. What if they had an equally easy schedule the season before? Equal schedule = similar numbers as the year before. USOS looks at the differences in schedule from this year compared to last season. An easier set of opponents this year points to increased production. A more difficult set of opponents this season points to decreased production.
Explanation of USOS Tables
Below, you will see tables for each positions USOS. Here is a brief explanation of the make-up of these tables.
The "TM" Column
This is simply the NFL team.
The Values
Each value in the table is the expected number of fantasy points on average or on a per game basis (depending on the column).
The "2009" Column
This is the average expected fantasy points allowed by each team's opponents for this season.
The "%ch" Column
This is the percentage of change between the 2009 schedule and the 2008 schedule. A positive value points to an easier SOS than last year while a negative value points to a more difficult SOS compared to last season.
The "EZ" Column
This is the number of easy opponents each team will face this season. An easy opponent is defined as one of the eight (seven during the bye weeks) worst defenses. Obviously, it is preferred to have players with as many easy games as possible.
The "TF" Column
This is the number of tough opponents each team will face this season. A tough opponent is defined as one of the eight (seven during the bye weeks) best defenses. Obviously, it is preferred to have players with as few tough games as possible.
The "1st3" Column
This is the SOS for the first three weeks of the NFL season. This value is useful to determine how players should be expected to open the season. Players with low values could easily stumble out of the gate.
The "1st5" Column
This is similar to "1st3" except that it covers the first five weeks of the NFL season (note that some teams only play four games in this time frame).
The "Byes" Column
This is the SOS covering the bye weeks. This value is useful to find a complementary player during the byes as you'll need to shuffle players in and out of your starting lineup. A player with an easy schedule during this time would be nice to have.
The "14to16" Column
This is similar to "1st3" except that it specifically covers Week 14 through Week 16.
The "15to17" Column
This is similar to "14to16" except that it specifically covers Week 15 through Week 17.
The "W1" through "W17" Columns
These values are the expected strength of each team's opponent for that particular week (W5 is Week 5, etc). This is very useful when searching for backups for your stud players. The key is to locate players with easy opponents when your star is on a bye.
The Coloring of the Values
The red values indicate that the team has one of the eight (seven during the bye weeks) best values in that column. Red was chosen because the team could heat up statistically. The blue values indicate that the team has one of the eight (seven during the bye weeks) worst values in that column. Blue was chosen because the team could cool down statistically. (Note: a green / red combo was considered but some people are color blind between those two colors.)
- Red is a hot team with a good schedule
- Blue is a cold team with a bad schedule
Ultimate Strength of Schedule - Wide Receivers
| TM |
2009
|
%ch
|
EZ
|
TF
|
1st3
|
1st5
|
Byes
|
14to16
|
15to17
|
| Ari |
19.1
|
-11.5%
|
3
|
4
|
17.7
|
18.1
|
17.5
|
21.6
|
21.9
|
| Atl |
18.1
|
-3.1%
|
3
|
7
|
18.6
|
18.5
|
18.0
|
20.0
|
17.8
|
| Bal |
19.3
|
10.6%
|
4
|
3
|
20.0
|
20.3
|
20.5
|
19.1
|
16.5
|
| Buf |
19.5
|
3.5%
|
5
|
3
|
19.8
|
19.9
|
18.9
|
21.9
|
20.3
|
| Car |
19.3
|
-1.2%
|
6
|
4
|
19.2
|
18.4
|
19.4
|
19.4
|
19.8
|
| Chi |
19.8
|
-3.3%
|
6
|
2
|
18.3
|
19.1
|
20.7
|
18.8
|
19.7
|
| Cin |
19.1
|
-3.3%
|
4
|
2
|
19.9
|
19.6
|
18.6
|
19.7
|
19.6
|
| Cle |
18.9
|
-3.5%
|
3
|
2
|
19.9
|
19.6
|
18.5
|
17.8
|
17.8
|
| Dal |
18.0
|
-2.3%
|
4
|
8
|
16.1
|
18.5
|
20.0
|
18.9
|
18.2
|
| Den |
18.1
|
-1.1%
|
3
|
5
|
18.1
|
18.8
|
18.3
|
15.6
|
17.2
|
| Det |
19.3
|
-4.8%
|
3
|
4
|
19.3
|
18.7
|
19.4
|
19.0
|
18.9
|
| GB |
19.3
|
5.5%
|
5
|
4
|
20.8
|
20.4
|
19.2
|
17.7
|
18.8
|
| Hou |
18.9
|
-2.0%
|
3
|
4
|
18.9
|
18.3
|
18.0
|
20.7
|
21.9
|
| Ind |
19.7
|
24.9%
|
4
|
1
|
19.4
|
19.1
|
20.2
|
19.8
|
18.5
|
| Jac |
19.6
|
1.0%
|
4
|
3
|
19.1
|
18.9
|
20.5
|
19.2
|
19.5
|
| KC |
18.1
|
-5.1%
|
2
|
5
|
16.0
|
16.9
|
17.1
|
19.6
|
20.9
|
| Mia |
19.0
|
-6.7%
|
4
|
3
|
19.3
|
19.1
|
19.3
|
19.1
|
19.1
|
| Min |
19.2
|
4.5%
|
4
|
4
|
20.1
|
20.9
|
20.2
|
17.5
|
16.7
|
| NE |
19.1
|
-5.4%
|
3
|
3
|
20.2
|
20.2
|
18.7
|
17.1
|
18.6
|
| NO |
18.8
|
-8.5%
|
5
|
6
|
18.7
|
18.8
|
19.9
|
19.1
|
16.4
|
| NYG |
18.3
|
-6.9%
|
5
|
7
|
16.8
|
17.2
|
18.8
|
15.7
|
16.7
|
| NYJ |
18.9
|
-1.3%
|
4
|
4
|
20.2
|
20.5
|
18.7
|
18.5
|
19.9
|
| Oak |
19.2
|
3.6%
|
4
|
2
|
20.7
|
19.9
|
18.7
|
19.6
|
20.3
|
| Phi |
18.3
|
2.9%
|
4
|
7
|
19.6
|
18.7
|
16.7
|
19.5
|
19.8
|
| Pit |
19.4
|
24.2%
|
3
|
2
|
19.1
|
19.5
|
20.3
|
19.2
|
19.0
|
| SD |
18.7
|
-2.7%
|
4
|
4
|
17.2
|
17.4
|
18.3
|
19.5
|
18.6
|
| SF |
19.8
|
0.3%
|
6
|
5
|
19.2
|
21.1
|
20.3
|
19.5
|
20.9
|
| Sea |
19.6
|
-10.4%
|
3
|
3
|
20.3
|
19.1
|
19.4
|
18.2
|
18.2
|
| StL |
19.0
|
-4.2%
|
4
|
5
|
17.6
|
18.1
|
19.4
|
20.0
|
19.5
|
| TB |
19.0
|
2.8%
|
5
|
5
|
18.3
|
17.4
|
17.8
|
19.7
|
21.0
|
| Ten |
19.0
|
14.5%
|
3
|
3
|
18.9
|
18.3
|
18.4
|
20.9
|
18.5
|
| Was |
19.0
|
7.4%
|
6
|
5
|
21.4
|
19.0
|
18.9
|
16.7
|
18.2
|
Week-By-Week Look
| TM |
W1
|
W2
|
W3
|
W4
|
W5
|
W6
|
W7
|
W8
|
W9
|
| Ari |
18.3
|
17.9
|
16.8
|
-
|
19.6
|
17.6
|
17.7
|
14.9
|
17.6
|
| Atl |
19.6
|
14.9
|
21.2
|
-
|
18.3
|
17.6
|
18.7
|
22.5
|
16.0
|
| Bal |
21.5
|
18.2
|
20.4
|
21.2
|
20.0
|
19.3
|
-
|
22.4
|
20.0
|
| Buf |
21.2
|
15.7
|
22.5
|
19.6
|
20.4
|
19.1
|
14.9
|
19.6
|
-
|
| Car |
16.1
|
23.0
|
18.7
|
-
|
16.0
|
15.7
|
18.4
|
20.7
|
22.5
|
| Chi |
19.2
|
18.0
|
17.6
|
21.7
|
-
|
23.0
|
20.0
|
20.4
|
20.7
|
| Cin |
22.4
|
19.2
|
18.0
|
20.4
|
18.0
|
19.6
|
17.6
|
-
|
18.0
|
| Cle |
19.3
|
22.4
|
18.0
|
20.0
|
18.4
|
18.0
|
19.2
|
17.6
|
-
|
| Dal |
15.7
|
17.7
|
14.9
|
22.4
|
21.5
|
-
|
23.0
|
17.6
|
16.1
|
| Den |
20.0
|
20.4
|
13.9
|
18.7
|
21.2
|
18.2
|
-
|
18.0
|
18.0
|
| Det |
22.5
|
19.3
|
16.0
|
17.6
|
18.0
|
19.2
|
-
|
24.9
|
17.6
|
| GB |
17.6
|
20.0
|
24.9
|
19.3
|
-
|
21.7
|
20.4
|
19.3
|
15.7
|
| Hou |
19.1
|
19.8
|
17.9
|
13.9
|
20.7
|
20.0
|
18.3
|
18.4
|
16.8
|
| Ind |
17.9
|
19.6
|
20.7
|
17.6
|
19.8
|
-
|
24.9
|
18.3
|
19.6
|
| Jac |
16.8
|
20.7
|
19.6
|
19.8
|
17.6
|
24.9
|
-
|
19.8
|
21.5
|
| KC |
18.0
|
13.9
|
16.1
|
17.7
|
18.7
|
16.0
|
18.2
|
-
|
17.9
|
| Mia |
23.0
|
16.8
|
18.2
|
18.4
|
19.1
|
-
|
22.5
|
19.1
|
21.2
|
| Min |
20.4
|
21.7
|
18.3
|
19.2
|
24.9
|
18.0
|
18.0
|
19.2
|
-
|
| NE |
18.4
|
19.1
|
23.0
|
18.0
|
22.4
|
19.8
|
15.7
|
-
|
19.6
|
| NO |
21.7
|
16.1
|
18.4
|
19.1
|
-
|
17.7
|
19.6
|
23.0
|
14.9
|
| NYG |
16.0
|
18.7
|
15.7
|
21.5
|
13.9
|
22.5
|
20.7
|
16.1
|
18.2
|
| NYJ |
19.6
|
21.2
|
19.8
|
22.5
|
19.6
|
18.4
|
13.9
|
19.6
|
-
|
| Oak |
18.2
|
21.5
|
22.4
|
19.6
|
17.7
|
16.1
|
19.1
|
18.2
|
-
|
| Phi |
14.9
|
22.5
|
21.5
|
-
|
15.7
|
13.9
|
16.0
|
17.7
|
18.7
|
| Pit |
19.8
|
17.6
|
20.0
|
18.2
|
21.7
|
20.4
|
19.3
|
-
|
22.4
|
| SD |
13.9
|
18.0
|
19.6
|
18.0
|
-
|
22.4
|
21.5
|
13.9
|
17.7
|
| SF |
20.7
|
17.6
|
19.3
|
24.9
|
23.0
|
-
|
19.6
|
16.8
|
19.8
|
| Sea |
24.9
|
18.3
|
17.6
|
16.8
|
17.9
|
20.7
|
-
|
18.7
|
21.7
|
| StL |
17.6
|
16.0
|
19.2
|
18.3
|
19.3
|
17.9
|
16.8
|
21.7
|
-
|
| TB |
18.7
|
18.4
|
17.7
|
16.0
|
16.1
|
14.9
|
21.2
|
-
|
19.2
|
| Ten |
18.0
|
19.6
|
19.1
|
17.9
|
16.8
|
21.2
|
-
|
17.9
|
18.3
|
| Was |
17.7
|
24.9
|
21.7
|
15.7
|
14.9
|
21.5
|
16.1
|
-
|
23.0
|
| TM |
W10
|
W11
|
W12
|
W13
|
W14
|
W15
|
W16
|
W17
|
| Ari |
17.6
|
24.9
|
19.8
|
19.3
|
18.3
|
21.7
|
24.9
|
19.2
|
| Atl |
14.9
|
17.7
|
15.7
|
16.1
|
22.5
|
19.1
|
18.4
|
15.7
|
| Bal |
20.4
|
16.8
|
18.0
|
19.2
|
21.7
|
17.6
|
18.0
|
13.9
|
| Buf |
19.8
|
17.9
|
19.6
|
19.1
|
21.5
|
21.2
|
23.0
|
16.8
|
| Car |
23.0
|
19.6
|
19.1
|
15.7
|
21.2
|
19.3
|
17.7
|
22.5
|
| Chi |
18.3
|
16.1
|
19.3
|
24.9
|
19.2
|
18.0
|
19.3
|
21.7
|
| Cin |
18.0
|
13.9
|
20.4
|
21.7
|
19.3
|
18.2
|
21.5
|
19.1
|
| Cle |
18.0
|
21.7
|
20.0
|
18.2
|
18.0
|
21.5
|
13.9
|
17.9
|
| Dal |
19.2
|
16.0
|
13.9
|
17.7
|
18.2
|
22.5
|
16.0
|
16.1
|
| Den |
16.0
|
18.2
|
17.7
|
21.5
|
16.8
|
13.9
|
16.1
|
21.5
|
| Det |
19.3
|
20.4
|
19.2
|
20.0
|
18.0
|
20.7
|
18.3
|
17.6
|
| GB |
18.7
|
18.3
|
21.7
|
18.0
|
17.6
|
18.0
|
17.6
|
20.7
|
| Hou |
-
|
19.8
|
16.8
|
17.9
|
17.6
|
24.9
|
19.6
|
21.2
|
| Ind |
21.2
|
18.0
|
19.6
|
19.8
|
22.4
|
17.9
|
19.1
|
18.4
|
| Jac |
19.1
|
18.4
|
18.3
|
19.6
|
19.6
|
16.8
|
21.2
|
20.4
|
| KC |
13.9
|
18.0
|
18.2
|
22.4
|
18.4
|
20.4
|
20.0
|
22.4
|
| Mia |
15.7
|
14.9
|
18.4
|
21.2
|
17.9
|
19.8
|
19.6
|
18.0
|
| Min |
21.7
|
17.6
|
17.6
|
20.7
|
20.0
|
14.9
|
17.6
|
17.7
|
| NE |
16.8
|
19.1
|
22.5
|
19.6
|
14.9
|
18.4
|
17.9
|
19.6
|
| NO |
24.9
|
15.7
|
21.2
|
16.0
|
23.0
|
18.7
|
15.7
|
14.9
|
| NYG |
-
|
23.0
|
22.4
|
18.7
|
16.1
|
16.0
|
14.9
|
19.3
|
| NYJ |
17.9
|
21.2
|
14.9
|
18.4
|
15.7
|
23.0
|
16.8
|
20.0
|
| Oak |
21.5
|
20.0
|
18.7
|
18.0
|
16.0
|
22.4
|
20.4
|
18.0
|
| Phi |
18.2
|
17.6
|
16.0
|
23.0
|
17.7
|
18.3
|
22.4
|
18.7
|
| Pit |
20.0
|
21.5
|
18.0
|
13.9
|
20.4
|
19.2
|
18.0
|
19.6
|
| SD |
16.1
|
22.4
|
21.5
|
20.4
|
18.7
|
20.0
|
19.8
|
16.0
|
| SF |
17.6
|
19.2
|
17.9
|
17.6
|
20.7
|
16.1
|
21.7
|
24.9
|
| Sea |
20.7
|
19.3
|
24.9
|
18.3
|
19.6
|
15.7
|
19.2
|
19.8
|
| StL |
22.5
|
20.7
|
17.6
|
17.6
|
19.8
|
19.6
|
20.7
|
18.3
|
| TB |
19.6
|
22.5
|
23.0
|
14.9
|
19.1
|
17.6
|
22.5
|
23.0
|
| Ten |
18.4
|
19.6
|
20.7
|
16.8
|
24.9
|
19.6
|
18.2
|
17.6
|
| Was |
22.4
|
18.7
|
16.1
|
22.5
|
13.9
|
17.7
|
18.7
|
18.2
|