Draft Slot Study - 8-team PPR League - From the 1.04 Spot

  Posted 8/25 by Chris Smith, Exclusive for Footballguys.com

Every new NFL season there is much discussion on the positives and the negatives for each of the draft slots in a fantasy football league. While it is possible to win a league no matter where you draft from, it is obvious to veteran fantasy owners that there is some advantage to drafting in certain positions as opposed to others.

Now that the 1st series is over (12-team league, standard scoring), I'll be looking at several different types of leagues, certain draft positions and unique scoring rules. I will attempt to get to as many as I can in the next several days.

Based on...

• 18-team redraft league / 18-round fantasy draft
  
• Must start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 flex (RB, WR or TE)
  
• Scoring is as follows:
  
  • 1 pt every 20 passing yards
    
  • 1 pt every 10 rushing yards
    
  • 4 pts per passing touchdown
    
  • 6 pts per rushing / receiving touchdown
    
  • 3 pts per field goal / 1 pt per extra point
    
  • 2 pts per interception, fumble recovery and safety
    
  • 1 pt per sack
    
  • 6 pts per defensive touchdown
    
  • 10 pts per shutout

This study is performed using the mock draft function within our own Draft Dominator software. The program gives you the ability to draft for one team and have the other teams taken over by computer control using different ADP lists. For the purpose of this study, I will use David Dodds' projections found within the Dominator.

The mock draft ability of the Dominator is a nice way to prepare for your fantasy draft. Running the same draft several times will help you to anticipate all possible scenarios when your own draft arrives. Check it out today.

If you would like to see a particular study this season, please send me an e-mail (smith@footballguys.com) and I will do my best to cover your scoring rules, starting lineup requirements, etc. before the end of training camp.

Onto the article.

Drafting 4th overall in an 8-team league

The next several articles in this series will be of a condensed style. Not as much information as the previous ones but will do the draft and illustrate the important strategies from this slot. Lets get to it.

Positives of the draft slot

• Very few picks in between selections makes it easy to look ahead to determine best path
• A very good running back will be available with the 4th overall pick

Negatives of the draft slot

• There are no negatives that leap at me in this spot. Pretty easy to put together a strong team.
  

Part One: The Mock Draft for the #4 draft slot (8-team league)

Breaking down the mock draft from draft slot #4

Round 1: RB Michael Turner

Sure Turner doesn't catch as many passes as some other running backs. Simply put, I do not care as this guy is a winner. He'll have 360+ touches this season and be an elite RB1 for my team. Do not over-think things when it comes to your first pick. Take the best player available and that is Turner.

Rounds 2/3: RB DeAngelo Williams / WR Reggie Wayne

Williams is a steal at this point in the 2nd round and Wayne is the same in the 3rd. They team up with my first pick Turner to give me three studs to build my franchise around. This is a great beginning to my squad.

Rounds 4/5: RB Reggie Bush / WR Terrell Owens

Wow! Bush in round four and Owens in round five is a major gain for this team. Let me reiterate that I have nothing to do with the draft of the other seven teams in the study. It is a mock draft from the Dominator and I only make the picks for my team. Being able to use Bush in a FLEX capacity for my squad in a PPR league is huge. Massive really and then adding Owens in round five really cements things.

Rounds 6/7: RB Joseph Addai / WR Braylon Edwards

When using a FLEX position in fantasy football, I often ignore the QB position until the 2nd half of the draft unless phenomenal talent drops to my pick. As a result, I continue to stockpile talent at both RB/WR to secure a strong, deep roster for the seven starters I'll need. Addai and Edwards fit the bill nicely here.

Rounds 8/9: WR Vincent Jackson / RB Donald Brown

Adding Vincent Jackson in round eight is an easy move. He is a very strong WR4 and will have many starts as a FLEX option in all likelihood. Brown was picked up to secure points from the Colts backfield. If one of the Colts running backs emerge as the top-gun, I'll have the starter in a good offense ready to go.

At the halfway point of the draft, our team looks like this…

RB Michael Turner, Falcons
RB DeAngelo Williams, Panthers
RB Reggie Bush, Saints
RB Joseph Addai, Colts
RB Donald Brown, Colts

WR Reggie Wayne
WR Terrell Owens
WR Braylon Edwards
WR Vincent Jackson

Obviously I have decided to load up at the RB and WR position and load up is the best word for it. My squad is filled with talented, potential top-ten players and if I can find a serviceable quarterback and tight end in the rounds ahead, this squad will be very difficult to beat.

Rounds 10-13: WR Antonio Bryant, RB Jonathan Stewart, QB Carson Palmer, WR Torry Holt

I do add my starting quarterback in this section and since other squads are also ignoring the QB position later in this draft, I manage to scoop up Carson Palmer who has top potential. Only time will tell if he can return to his lofty status of 2007 and earlier but he has world-class talent. I didn't plan on taking two more receivers here but Bryant and Holt in the 2nd half of the draft. That my friends is a no-brainer and gives my team incredible depth at receiver that I can trade or utilize as the season wears on. Finally I find Stewart available and he is a tremendous handcuff to my earlier pick, DeAngelo Williams. That secures points from the Panthers backfield.

Rounds 14-18: TE Kellen Winslow, DEF NYG, TE Jeremy Shockey, QB Matt Hasselbeck, PK Jeff Reed

Not having selected a tight end yet, I pick up two in the next few rounds with excellent potential. If Winslow and Shockey can stay healthy, both have top-five potential. I add my 2nd quarterback in Matt Hasselbeck and a good defense and kicker to flesh out the roster.

Final Roster (Draft Slot #4)

QB Carson Palmer, Bengals
QB Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks

RB Michael Turner, Falcons
RB DeAngelo Williams, Panthers
RB Reggie Bush, Saints
RB Joseph Addai, Colts
RB Donald Brown, Colts
RB Jonathan Stewart, Panthers

WR Reggie Wayne, Colts
WR Terrell Owens, Bills
WR Braylon Edwards, Browns
WR Vincent Jackson, Chargers
WR Antonio Bryant, Buccaneers
WR Torry Holt, Jaguars

TE Kellen Winslow, Buccaneers
TE Jeremy Shockey, Saints

PK Jeff Reed, Steelers

DEF New York Giants

Final thoughts on this roster

This roster has it all. Potential, youth, past success and depth. Everything you need to take a league by the horns and do some damage. With six strong running backs and receivers, this team is built to withstand injuries and plug in talented starters throughout the season. At quarterback, it is weaker in paper than several teams but Palmer especially has elite potential if he can regain his past success. Both Winslow and Shockey as well are capable of putting up great fantasy seasons. All-in-all, this is a deep and talented squad with elite potential.

Last thoughts on the #4 draft slot (8-team league)

In a squad that starts 2 RB, 3 WR and a FLEX player, you should ignore the quarterback position unless exceptional talent drops to a pick. I may have scooped up Brees/Brady if he dropped to my 4th round pick and Peyton Manning if he dropped to the 5th but after that is better to hold off and stockpile talent at the FLEX-useful positions. There is plenty of talent in eight team leagues and many serviceable quarterbacks will be there round nine and later so do not reach at the position. For tight end, it really depends on the draft. If you see tight ends dropping off the board, make the decision to pick one up earlier than in this study. The key to FLEX leagues is to have plenty of depth at RB and WR. If you are able to do that, you'll be in the championship push.