Draft Slot Study - From the #9/10 Position

  Posted 8/19 by Chris Smith, Exclusive for Footballguys.com

Every season there is much discussion on the positives and the negatives for each of the draft slots in a fantasy football league. While I believe it is possible to win a league no matter where you draft from, it is obvious to the veteran fantasy owner that there is some advantage to drafting in certain positions as opposed to others. This series of articles will take an in-depth look at each of the twelve draft positions in a 12-team, redraft fantasy football league and outline the positives and negatives of each slot. In addition each separate article will showcase a mock draft compiled using the Draft Dominator.

Based on...

• 12-team redraft league / 18-round fantasy draft
  
• Must start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE
  
• Scoring is as follows:
  
  • 1 pt every 20 passing yards
    
  • 1 pt every 10 rushing yards
    
  • 4 pts per passing touchdown
    
  • 6 pts per rushing / receiving touchdown
    
  • 3 pts per field goal / 1 pt per extra point
    
  • 2 pts per interception, fumble recovery and safety
    
  • 1 pt per sack
    
  • 6 pts per defensive touchdown
    
  • 10 pts per shutout

This study is performed using the mock draft function within our own Draft Dominator software. The program gives you the ability to draft for one team and have the other teams taken over by computer control using different ADP lists. For the purpose of this study, I will use David Dodds' projections found within the Dominator.

The mock draft ability of the Dominator is a nice way to prepare for your fantasy draft. Running the same draft several times will help you to anticipate all possible scenarios when your own draft arrives. Check it out today.

If you would like to see a particular study this season, please send me an e-mail (smith@footballguys.com) and I will do my best to cover your scoring rules, starting lineup requirements, etc. before the end of training camp.

Onto the article.

Drafting 9th/10th overall

With some similarities between draft positions, I have decided to lump the remaining eight draft slots into four articles. This article has combined the 9th and 10th draft slots into one article. There is little to choose from as both have comparable strategies to utilize. For this study, I will be drafting from the 10th overall draft slot.

Now that we're getting down towards the end of the draft list, it gets very interesting indeed. This owner knows he will be behind the eight ball at RB1 and will likely miss out on the top WR talent as well. However with two of the top fifteen picks, all is not lost. In fact with good decisions, this can be a great way to begin the draft.

Possible strategies to incorporate into your draft

There are many different ways you can take this draft. The conventional approach for years has been the RB/RB approach to secure a very strong starting duo. There is nothing wrong with that thought process and it usually works out quite well. The only issue is the long wait between the 2nd and 3rd round picks and the possibility of many strong receivers also being off the board when the next pick arrives. Another approach can be the WR/WR approach securing top-end receiver talent and looking for running back options in rounds three through six. If you are in a heavy-RB league that sees 7+ running backs off the board when the 10th pick arrives, I think the WR/WR strategy can be not only a good decision but a great one. Another less conventional approach would be to target one of the top QBs on the board in Drew Brees / Tom Brady but I really dislike taking a quarterback in the first two rounds as it can cripple your squad if injury strikes that player. Let's look at a couple of different draft options.

Examples

1. League that goes RB heavy in first two rounds: Many leagues out there still feature running backs flying off the board in the first two rounds. If you league is similar to this, do NOT be afraid to buck the trend and look towards the receiver position instead. Fantasy points are fantasy points and if you secure a huge advantage at receiver, you can win your league with average running back play. It all depends on if the top receiver talent is on the board when your 10th round pick arrives.
   
   Possible squad through five rounds
   RB Ryan Grant 3.10
   RB Larry Johnson 5.10
   WR Larry Fitzgerald 1.10
   WR Andre Johnson 2.03
   WR Marques Colston 4.03
   
   Starting a fantasy draft with WR/WR feels risky to many owners but can really pay dividends to an owner willing to go against the grain of the draft. In this case, I have landed two elite receivers and a great WR3 for a fantasy league. Sure the RB core is not as strong as many in the league but focusing on the position adding 3-4 more running backs in the next 6 rounds will really turn this squad into an elite one.
   
   
2. League that has more flexibility in first two rounds: If your fantasy league looks for value instead of loading up at the running back position, the best thing to do is sit back and allow the draft to unfold, taking the best talent at each position. In this case, the running back stable looks strong but this squad also has a dynamic pair of receivers to carry the team.
   
   Possible squad through five rounds
   RB LaDainian Tomlinson 1.10
   RB Matt Forte 2.03
   RB Ryan Grant 4.03
   WR Marques Colston 3.10
   WR DeSean Jackson 5.10
   

   In this example, a few receivers and quarterbacks went off the board early, allowing good running back depth to slip to the 10th and 15th overall picks. In this case, it makes the most sense to start the draft RB/RB, landing two running backs capable of a big fantasy season. The receiving core is not going to be as strong as it was in the previous study but with adding Grant in as the backup in the 4th round, the running back core is as strong as anyone in the league.

Positives of the draft slot

• Many different ways you can build this squad
• Two of the top fifteen players on your board is a great foundation to begin a squad
• An owner willing to be 100% flexible can build a monster team

Negatives of the draft slot

• Top end running back and possibly receiver talent can be off the board when pick arrives
• Long wait between 2nd and 3rd round pick means you better be sure in regards to your first two picks
  

Part One: The Mock Draft for the #10 Slot

Breaking down the mock draft from draft slot #10

Round 1: RB DeAngelo Williams

With this pick, you have to simply take the best player available and then build your squad from this point. In this case, Williams is the best option with Andre Johnson a close 2nd in my opinion so I take the RB who will fit in nicely as a RB1 for my team.

Rounds 2/3: WR Andre Johnson / WR Marques Colston

It has worked out nicely as Johnson slid down to the 15th pick and into my hands. I am very happy to add him to the mix here. With the 3rd round pick, I am thinking Ryan Grant would be a great pickup as my RB2 but he is scooped the pick before mine. I do not see another running back I like here so I pickup an exceptional WR2 for my team in Colston.

Rounds 4/5: WR Chad Ochocinco / RB Larry Johnson

I just do not see a running back I like for early in the 4th round so I have no choice than to pickup another receiver here. Ochocinco may be great this season and may be a disaster but his upside is impossible to ignore and as a WR3, he could be a fantasy gem for my team. Finally round five comes and I need to make a decision. I know I need to target running back here but which one. My goal is to add both Larry Johnson and Jonathan Stewart with the next two picks as Stewart would be a great handcuff to my 1st round pick. I am worried about going Stewart first however as without Johnson I have a hole at RB2 and may be forced into using two Panthers which isn't an ideal situation unless they can both match last year's stats. I go with Johnson who should have a decent season as a RB2

Rounds 6/7: RB Joseph Addai / WR Lee Evans

I am quite disappointed here as Stewart is scooped one spot before my pick. I instead take Joseph Addai who is capable of putting up decent numbers if called upon. He is a good option as a RB3 in fantasy football. I consider a running back with my 7th round pick but nobody is leaping out at me like WR Lee Evans of the Bills is. He is a tremendous 2nd option in the Bills passing attack and is an unbelievably great option as a WR4 in fantasy leagues. Just cannot leave him on the board here.

Rounds 8/9: RB Chris Wells / QB Carson Palmer

I am quite pleased to have Chris Wells available in the 8th round. I was going to go quarterback here but landing Wells as my RB4 is simply too good to pass up. I may leave a hole at quarterback as I only see a couple more players capable of finishing top-eight but I still take Wells and keep my fingers crossed that a quarterback makes his way to my next pick. I am very pleased in round nine but Carson Palmer is still on the board. He has top-five potential and I quickly scoop him up. The gamble paid off.

At the halfway point of the draft, our team looks like this…

QB Carson Palmer 9.10

RB DeAngelo Williams 1.10
RB Larry Johnson 5.10
RB Joseph Addai 6.03
RB Chris Wells 8.03

WR Andre Johnson 2.03
WR Marques Colston 3.10
WR Chad Ochocinco 4.03
WR Lee Evans 7.10

This has been a fun draft. I have endured some disappointments with players I like getting scooped up one pick before my own and had the fortune of having players I like falling into my lap at a wonderful value spot. This draft slot isn't easy as the first round pick is not as special as the owners above you are blessed with but I like the flow of the draft from this position. The receiving core is certainly elite with four exceptional fantasy options already on board.

Rounds 10-13: TE John Carlson / WR Steve Smith / RB Jamaal Charles / QB Chad Pennington

Finally I add my starting TE and John Carlson could surprise with a top-eight finish in Seattle. He has the tools to be very good in 2009. I pickup Steve Smith in round eleven but really, I should have targeted Jamaal Charles to backup Larry Johnson and I feel I was lucky to have Charles available in round twelve. If I could do it over, I would take Charles first before Steve Smith even though it worked out in this case. Pennington isn't flashy, but he'll put up decent fantasy numbers on a consistent basis.

Rounds 14-18: DEF Ravens defense / TE Anthony Fasano / WR Hakeem Nicks / DEF Texans defense / PK Nick Folk

Fleshing out my roster, I add two defenses, a backup tight end and receiver and my kicker. Nothing flashy here but good talent was obtained. It should be noted here that I took Nicks hoping one of several running backs would be available in round seventeen. However all of the running backs I was considering were taken so I went ahead and added my 2nd defense.

Final Roster (Draft Slot #10)

QB Carson Palmer 9.10
QB Chad Pennington 13.10

RB DeAngelo Williams 1.10
RB Larry Johnson 5.10
RB Joseph Addai 6.03
RB Chris Wells 8.03
RB Jamaal Charles 12.03

WR Andre Johnson 2.03
WR Marques Colston 3.10
WR Chad Ochocinco 4.03
WR Lee Evans 7.10
WR Steve Smith (NYG) 11.10
WR Hakeem Nicks 16.03

TE John Carlson, 10.03
TE Anthony Fasano, 15.10

K Nick Folk 18.03

DEF Ravens 14.03
DEF Texans 17.10

Final thoughts on this roster

I love the receiving core of this team. Johnson, Colston, Ochocinco, Evans, Smith and Nicks are without question the strongest core of receivers in this fantasy league. They will carry my squad. I am happy to have secured Jamaal Charles to back up Larry Johnson and while not flashy I should get enough of the RB position to contend. All in all, a very good team that I would expect to make a championship push.

Last thoughts on the #9/10 slots

It is more challenging drafting from the 9th or 10th slot than many other spots this year but with patience and having the guts to go outside the box will help you build a force to be reckoned with. Going WR/WR/WR in rounds two through four certainly isn't conventional but do not reach for running back talent in those rounds. Sure if there is a running back to be taken that is worthy of the pick, it makes sense to go RB but if not, load up on talent at the receiver position and you'll secure enough running back talent to compete for your league title. Ignore quarterback until 11-12 are off the board unless exceptional value presents itself.