Draft Slot Study - From the #7/8 Position

  Posted 8/19 by Chris Smith, Exclusive for Footballguys.com

Every season there is much discussion on the positives and the negatives for each of the draft slots in a fantasy football league. While I believe it is possible to win a league no matter where you draft from, it is obvious to the veteran fantasy owner that there is some advantage to drafting in certain positions as opposed to others. This series of articles will take an in-depth look at each of the twelve draft positions in a 12-team, redraft fantasy football league and outline the positives and negatives of each slot. In addition each separate article will showcase a mock draft compiled using the Draft Dominator.

Based on...

• 12-team redraft league / 18-round fantasy draft
  
• Must start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE
  
• Scoring is as follows:
  
  • 1 pt every 20 passing yards
    
  • 1 pt every 10 rushing yards
    
  • 4 pts per passing touchdown
    
  • 6 pts per rushing / receiving touchdown
    
  • 3 pts per field goal / 1 pt per extra point
    
  • 2 pts per interception, fumble recovery and safety
    
  • 1 pt per sack
    
  • 6 pts per defensive touchdown
    
  • 10 pts per shutout

This study is performed using the mock draft function within our own Draft Dominator software. The program gives you the ability to draft for one team and have the other teams taken over by computer control using different ADP lists. For the purpose of this study, I will use David Dodds' projections found within the Dominator.

The mock draft ability of the Dominator is a nice way to prepare for your fantasy draft. Running the same draft several times will help you to anticipate all possible scenarios when your own draft arrives. Check it out today.

If you would like to see a particular study this season, please send me an e-mail (smith@footballguys.com) and I will do my best to cover your scoring rules, starting lineup requirements, etc. before the end of training camp.

Onto the article.

Drafting 7th/8th overall

With some similarities between draft positions, I have decided to lump the remaining eight draft slots into four articles. This article has combined the 7th and 8th draft slots into one article. There is little to choose from as both have comparable strategies to utilize. For this study, I will be drafting from the 8th overall draft slot.

Possible strategies to incorporate into your draft

Make no mistake about it folks; drafting from the 7th/8th slots is tricky this year. Note that I did not say it is a bad spot to draft from; merely a tricky one. Actually it may be one of the better places to draft from in 2009 depending on how your league is. Ideally, the either Randy Moss or Larry Fitzgerald will be available here and then it is an easy pick. However if both are off the board, this will be a difficult pick. Many of the running backs here are lumped together. If one of them clearly jumps out at you from your cheat sheet, then that is the player to grab. If nobody really stands out from the other, perhaps it makes sense to go with Andre Johnson in this slot. Don't shy away from possibly looking at QB Drew Brees if he is available in the 2nd round as you are going to need strength in other positions to overcome starting behind the eight ball at both running back and perhaps receiver. An interesting first round pick would be former 1st-overall pick fantasy phenom, LaDainian Tomlinson. If he can re-discover his past form, it could make your team one of the favorites but it appears that his gas tank is closer to empty than full at this stage of his career. This is a very difficult first pick in all likelihood so really narrow down which players you like and dislike out of your top-ten players.

Examples

1. League that goes RB heavy in first two rounds: Most fantasy leagues go running back crazy to begin a fantasy draft. If that happens in your league, do not panic and instead secure major talent at the other positions, loading up on running back depth later on in your draft.
   
   Possible squad through five rounds
   RB Ryan Grant 3.08
   RB Jonathan Stewart 5.08
   WR Larry Fitzgerald 1.08
   WR Andre Johnson 2.05
   WR Chad Ochocinco 4.05
   
   What you see above is the perfect scenario for a fantasy squad that begins a draft with two receivers back-to-back in rounds one and two. Sure it is risky and the running back talent can evaporate, but this season, there are plenty of interesting running back prospects throughout the 3rd through 7th rounds of your draft. The receiving trio on this squad is lights out and should be the best in the league by a mile. In addition, both Grant and Stewart are solid, if unspectacular fantasy options who should get plenty of touches and have a few strong weeks. Both have top-ten capability if everything fell into place.
   
   
2. League that has more flexibility in first two rounds: If your fantasy league looks for value instead of loading up at the running back position, the best thing to do is sit back and allow the draft to unfold, taking the best talent at each position. In this case, the running back stable looks strong but this squad also has a dynamic pair of receivers to carry the team.
   
   Possible squad through five rounds
   RB Steve Slaton, 1.08
   RB Brandon Jacobs 2.05
   WR Terrell Owens 3.08
   WR Marques Colston 4.05
   WR Vincent Jackson 5.08

   This squad has a very strong duo at running back in Slaton and Jacobs but the receiving trio isn't nearly as strong as the group above. Still Owens, Colston and Jackson are a very strong trio at receiver and the first five picks of this squad have the potential to be an elite fantasy foundation.

Positives of the draft slot

• Middle of the draft means you do not have to wait very long between picks. Ultimately that means it is easier to forecast which players will be available when your next pick arrives
• Flexible drafting will almost always allow talent to be scooped up by savvy fantasy owners

Negatives of the draft slot

• The first selection is a tricky one. Could have top running backs and receivers off the board.
• Could be playing catch-up with teams ahead of you with first pick and teams behind you getting a stronger 2nd round pick

Part One: The Mock Draft for the #8 Slot

Breaking down the mock draft from draft slot #8

Round 1: WR Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals

Having Fitzgerald available here is a no-brainer. There will be plenty of running backs to target over the next several rounds and starting your squad with a receiving force will be a great beginning. Fitzgerald has fantasy MVP talent.

Rounds 2/3: RB Brandon Jacobs, RB Ryan Grant

Jacobs is a RB1 you can select in the second round. His only question is durability so if you can land a 2nd Giants running back later in the draft, you will secure fantasy points behind perhaps the top run blocking offensive line in the NFL. In round three, it is tempting to pick up Terrell Owens but landing a good running back here is a luxury I cannot afford to pass up. Grant in the third round gives me a strong duo at starting running back.

Rounds 4/5: WR Marques Colston, RB Jonathan Stewart

Again, allowing the draft to unfold and scooping up value is working nicely as it almost always does. Colston falls into our laps in the fourth round and he is an elite WR2 for fantasy squads. Stewart is a great fifth round pick that secures nice depth for the RB position.

Rounds 6/7: WR DeSean Jackson, WR Lee Evans

I consider taking QB Kurt Warner with my 6th round pick and almost pull the trigger. However looking at the QB board once again, there are a number of players in the 11th through 14th spots that I like this year so I hold off and instead pick up a pair of receivers here that without question gives me the strongest core at the position in the league. Fitzgerald, Colston, Jackson and Evans are going to rack up a ton of points for my squad.

Rounds 8/9: QB Carson Palmer, TE Kellen Winslow

In this mock, 12 quarterbacks are off the board by my 8th round pick. I cannot afford to wait another round and see the players I like disappear so I pick up my quarterback now. Palmer has top-three potential when healthy and he could pave the way to a monster season for my squad if he rediscovers his past form. The 9th round is a great place to land your starting tight end. It is late enough in the draft that top-end receivers and running backs are gone but not so far into it that the talent at tight end has evaporated. Winslow could be the top tight end in 2009 so he is an easy selection here.

At the halfway point of the draft, our team looks like this…

QB Carson Palmer 8.05

RB Brandon Jacobs 2.05
RB Ryan Grant 3.08
RB Jonathan Stewart 5.08

WR Larry Fitzgerald 1.08
WR Marques Colston 4.05
WR DeSean Jackson 6.05
WR Lee Evans 7.08

TE Kellen Winslow 9.08

This has the look of a very strong, balanced fantasy team. I have a good starting quarterback and tight end, a tremendous core of four talented receivers and three running backs capable of getting the job done. There hasn't been much value at running back so I am a little weak in depth at the position but all in all, this team has the making of a great squad.

Rounds 10-13: RB Ahmad Bradshaw, QB Matt Hasselbeck, WR Steve Smith, DEF Ravens defense

I am very happy to land Bradshaw in the 10th round as I almost scooped him up the previous round. He'll add some security to my top running back and is capable of good fantasy numbers if thrust into a starting spot in New York. Hasselbeck is a very strong backup in fantasy football; Smith has some potential and could emerge as a decent starting option in fantasy football and the Ravens defense will always have some big scoring weeks.

Rounds 14-18: TE Jeremy Shockey, DEF Patriots defense, PK Lawrence Tynes, WR Michael Clayton, RB Laurence Maroney

Here is where you flesh out your fantasy squad. I add a backup tight end with upside if Shockey can stay healthy, a receiver in Michael Clayton that could greatly exceed his draft position, a good kicker and a young running back that has disappointed but could reemerge as the starter in New England.

Final Roster (Draft Slot #8)

QB Carson Palmer 8.05
QB Matt Hasselbeck 11.08

RB Brandon Jacobs 2.05
RB Ryan Grant 3.08
RB Jonathan Stewart 5.08
RB Ahmad Bradshaw 10.05
RB Laurence Maroney 18.05

WR Larry Fitzgerald 1.08
WR Marques Colston 4.05
WR DeSean Jackson 6.05
WR Lee Evans 7.08
WR Steve Smith (NYG) 12.05
WR Michael Clayton 17.08

TE Kellen Winslow 9.08
TE Jeremy Shockey 14.05

PK Lawrence Tynes 16.05

DEF Ravens Defense 13.08
DEF Patriots Defense 15.08

Final thoughts on this roster

I am very happy with this roster. The quarterback position is strong with two players capable of a strong fantasy season. That is especially true of Palmer who has the potential to jump into the top-five at his position. The receiver group is without question the strength of the team and the cream of the fantasy league. Lots of talent, lots of opportunities and all of the players could put up nice numbers. I have two proven commodities at tight end in Winslow and Shockey, both of whom can light it up when healthy. Of course, their health is the ultimate question going into the season as they struggle to stay healthy. The only question mark with this roster is depth at running back. No real value presented itself throughout the 2nd half of the draft and as a result, the cupboard may be a little empty going into the season and I'll have to watch the waiver wire throughout the year. It is a nice luxury to have Bradshaw on board and Maroney does have the talent to exceed his draft position. All in all, this is a very strong fantasy squad that will compete for the title.

Last thoughts on the #7/8 slots

Drafting 7th or 8th overall isn't a bad place to be at all. Being in the middle of the draft board, there is not a long wait between picks and it is easy to determine which players should slide back to your next pick. Do not be afraid to ignore the running back position, especially in round one. If an elite receiver is there, take the receiver and you'll find good starting options at running back in rounds two through five. Good luck and happy drafting.