Draft Slot Study - From the #5/6 Position

  Posted 8/19 by Chris Smith, Exclusive for Footballguys.com

Every season there is much discussion on the positives and the negatives for each of the draft slots in a fantasy football league. While I believe it is possible to win a league no matter where you draft from, it is obvious to the veteran fantasy owner that there is some advantage to drafting in certain positions as opposed to others. This series of articles will take an in-depth look at each of the twelve draft positions in a 12-team, redraft fantasy football league and outline the positives and negatives of each slot. In addition each separate article will showcase a mock draft compiled using the Draft Dominator.

Based on...

• 12-team redraft league / 18-round fantasy draft
  
• Must start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE
  
• Scoring is as follows:
  
  • 1 pt every 20 passing yards
    
  • 1 pt every 10 rushing yards
    
  • 4 pts per passing touchdown
    
  • 6 pts per rushing / receiving touchdown
    
  • 3 pts per field goal / 1 pt per extra point
    
  • 2 pts per interception, fumble recovery and safety
    
  • 1 pt per sack
    
  • 6 pts per defensive touchdown
    
  • 10 pts per shutout

This study is performed using the mock draft function within our own Draft Dominator software. The program gives you the ability to draft for one team and have the other teams taken over by computer control using different ADP lists. For the purpose of this study, I will use David Dodds' projections found within the Dominator.

The mock draft ability of the Dominator is a nice way to prepare for your fantasy draft. Running the same draft several times will help you to anticipate all possible scenarios when your own draft arrives. Check it out today.

If you would like to see a particular study this season, please send me an e-mail (smith@footballguys.com) and I will do my best to cover your scoring rules, starting lineup requirements, etc. before the end of training camp.

Onto the article.

Drafting 5th/6th overall

With some similarities between draft positions, I have decided to lump the remaining eight draft slots into four articles. This article has combined the 5th and 6th draft slots into one article. There is little to choose from as both have comparable strategies to utilize. For this study, I will be drafting from the 6th overall draft slot. This will be a tough position to draft from this season. There are four running backs you can say are worthy of being drafted at the top of the first round (Adrian Peterson, Michael Turner, Maurice Jones-Drew and Steven Jackson) and then some serious question marks amongst the other players when grading them for the top of the draft board. Here is where the best-prepared owners emerge as the cream of the crop. Instead of being a sheep and following the crowd while taking a risk at RB, go the other way and take the top receiver on your draft board. Sure you'll be scrambling for RB starters but depth can make up for top-end running back talent. Instead do your best to secure the top receiving core in the league which will help propel you into the playoffs.

Possible strategies to incorporate into your draft

There is so much flexibility when drafting from the top slot. Since you have already drafted a stud running back guaranteed to, if healthy, score a ton of points for your squad, you can simply target the top player on your cheatsheet for the next couple of rounds.

Examples

1. League that goes RB heavy in first two rounds: Most fantasy leagues go running back crazy to begin a fantasy draft. If that happens in your league, do not panic and instead secure major talent at the other positions, loading up on running back depth later on in your draft.
   
   Possible squad through five rounds
   RB Knowshon Moreno, Broncos
   RB Jonathan Stewart, Panthers
   WR Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals
   WR Andre Johnson, Texans
   WR Greg Jennings, Packers
   
   Sure the running back situation looks a little weak but that receiver trio is absolutely deadly. If you do go WR/WR/WR to begin a draft, you should only have 4-5 receivers maximum on your squad at the end of the draft, instead drafting as many running backs through the middle and latter stages of your draft as you can. Your receiving core will have an excellent chance at carrying your squad to a title and both Moreno and Stewart and capable of huge seasons if given the opportunity.
   
   
2. League that has more flexibility in first two rounds: If your fantasy league looks for value instead of loading up at the running back position, the best thing to do is sit back and allow the draft to unfold, taking the best talent at each position. In this case, the running back stable looks strong but this squad also has a dynamic pair of receivers to carry the team.
   
   Possible squad through five rounds
   RB Ronnie Brown
   RB Kevin Smith
   RB Jonathan Stewart
   WR Larry Fitzgerald
   WR Chad Ochocinco

Positive of the draft slot

• Less time in between picks makes it easier to determine which players will fall to your next pick

Negatives of the draft slot

• No real running back to choose from in round one unless an owner or two selects a different position. Taking a WR mid-way through round one is not a common-place strategy but the only one to utilize if you want to get an advantage on the owners at the top of your draft board.

Part One: The Mock Draft for the #6 Slot

Breaking down the mock draft from draft slot #6

Round 1: WR Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals

It is not easy to start your draft with a wide receiver and especially difficult this early in the first round. However Larry Fitzgerald is a fantastic fantasy weapon and every running back available has some question marks that are not appealing early in the draft. There is nothing wrong in starting your roster with the top receiver in fantasy football.

Rounds 2/3: RB Ronnie Brown, Dolphins, RB Kevin Smith, Lions

After going WR with the first selection, it is the best move to target running backs in rounds two and three. However, if you do not see running backs worth selecting here, do not hesitate to stockpile tremendous receiver talent instead, trying to earn an advantage with the best options at receiver. In this case however, both Brown and Smith are 20+ touches per game players and will form a good one-two punch for this roster.

Rounds 4/5: WR Chad Ochocinco, Bengals, RB Jonathan Stewart, Panthers

Ochocinco is an easy pick in round four just due to his upside. Of course, there is a chance he simply implodes once again in 2009 but if his head is in the game, Ochocinco has top-five potential at his position. In round five, Stewart is a fantastic addition to the team. He is splitting time of course but if he does get the chance to carry the load, Stewart could catapult into the top-tier of the running back position. He should be a great guy to have on roster as RB3.

Rounds 6/7: WR Vincent Jackson, RB Willie Parker

Start to think about QB here but I see a ton of quarterbacks I would not mind on my fantasy team so I hold off and add another receiver and running back to the mix. Both Jackson and Parker have the ability to put up good fantasy numbers and their production could greatly exceed their draft positions.

Rounds 8/9: WR Ted Ginn, TE Kellen Winslow

Once again, I look really hard at the quarterback spot and would usually pull the trigger here. However in this draft, I still see 5-6 quarterbacks I really like as QB1 this season so instead continue to add good strength at receiver with Ginn and add a tight end in Winslow who could finish as the top fantasy tight end this season if he stays healthy.

At the halfway point of the draft, our team looks like this…

RB Ronnie Brown
RB Kevin Smith
RB Jonathan Stewart
RB Willie Parker

WR Larry Fitzgerald
WR Chad Ochocinco
WR Vincent Jackson
WR Ted Ginn

TE Kellen Winslow

It isn't often I will not have a quarterback after the first nine picks in a fantasy draft. However I have decided to roll the dice in this draft and hope that one of the passers I like as a QB1 this season makes it to my 10th round pick. My running back and receiver positions are in fantastic shape with great depth and talent throughout the ranks. My RB4 and WR4 are capable of stepping in and having a big week at any point of the fantasy season. Landing Winslow, whom I believe could be a monster fantasy weapon from the tight end spot is a huge play in my opinion. It will backfire if a huge QB run goes off the board but I'm delighted to have Winslow on the squad.

Rounds 10-13: QB Carson Palmer Bengals, QB Chad Pennington Dolphins, RB Michael Bush Raiders, WR Chaz Schilens Raiders

The gamble has paid off with Palmer available in round ten. Just make sure in your league to really pay attention to how many quarterbacks are off the board and who is likely to take one in between your picks. The gamble can backfire if you misjudge the future picks. I go back-to-back quarterbacks here to secure a strong backup before the talent well completely dries up. I visit 'Raider-Nation' with my next two picks, landing two young players with giant upside possibility.

Rounds 14-18: Ravens Def, TE Brandon Pettigrew Lions, Dolphins Def, PK Kris Brown Texans, WR Patrick Crayton Cowboys

Here is where the roster gets filled out. I add two defenses, a kicker, a backup tight end and a veteran receiver. Now the squad has important depth at all the key positions.

Final Roster (Draft Slot #6)

QB Carson Palmer
QB Chad Pennington

RB Ronnie Brown
RB Kevin Smith
RB Jonathan Stewart
RB Willie Parker
RB Michael Bush

WR Larry Fitzgerald
WR Chad Ochocinco
WR Vincent Jackson
WR Ted Ginn
WR Chaz Schilens
WR Patrick Crayton

TE Kellen Winslow
TE Brandon Pettigrew

K Kris Brown

DEF Ravens Defense
DEF Dolphins Defense

Final thoughts on this roster

Going receiver with the 1st round draft pick is risky but it turned out pretty good. I believe the key if you do not take a running back early is to skip adding a quarterback and/or tight end until later in the draft to secure depth at both receiver and running back. Ultimately the strategy has turned out very well. I have four running backs that are capable of big weeks at any time and a fifth in Michael Bush that has big potential. The receiving core is outstanding with six players capable of good games at any point and both the TE and QB spots are very strong, despite the late start. All in all this is an outstanding team capable of doing big damage in 2009.

Last thoughts on the #5/6 slots

Drafting 5th or 6th overall this season is difficult. It will be very hard to go RB to begin your draft unless owners in front of you take QB Tom Brady, QB Drew Brees or one of the top receivers. If no running backs leap out at you with this slot, take your top receiver instead. Follow the blueprint above and you'll not only have a good roster, but a dominant one. Good luck and happy drafting.