Draft Slot Study - From the #4 Position

  Posted 8/19 by Chris Smith, Exclusive for Footballguys.com

Every new NFL season there is much discussion on the positives and the negatives for each of the draft slots in a fantasy football league. While it is possible to win a league no matter where you draft from, it is obvious to veteran fantasy owners that there is some advantage to drafting in certain positions as opposed to others. This series of articles will take an in-depth look at each of the twelve draft positions in a 12-team, redraft fantasy football league for the 2009 campaign and outline the positives and negatives of each slot. In addition each separate article will showcase a mock draft compiled using the Draft Dominator.

Based on...

• 12-team redraft league / 18-round fantasy draft
  
• Must start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE
  
• Scoring is as follows:
  
  • 1 pt every 20 passing yards
    
  • 1 pt every 10 rushing yards
    
  • 4 pts per passing touchdown
    
  • 6 pts per rushing / receiving touchdown
    
  • 3 pts per field goal / 1 pt per extra point
    
  • 2 pts per interception, fumble recovery and safety
    
  • 1 pt per sack
    
  • 6 pts per defensive touchdown
    
  • 10 pts per shutout

This study is performed using the mock draft function within our own Draft Dominator software. The program gives you the ability to draft for one team and have the other teams taken over by computer control using different ADP lists. For the purpose of this study, I will use David Dodds' projections found within the Dominator.

The mock draft ability of the Dominator is a nice way to prepare for your fantasy draft. Running the same draft several times will help you to anticipate all possible scenarios when your own draft arrives. Check it out today.

If you would like to see a particular study this season, please send me an e-mail (smith@footballguys.com) and I will do my best to cover your scoring rules, starting lineup requirements, etc. before the end of training camp.

On to the article.

Drafting fourth overall

For this study, I have decided to switch it up and draft using the stud RB theory in the first few rounds. This strategy has been around forever in fantasy leagues and it is a great way to stockpile depth at the running back position. The depth can help to carry a team throughout the long season when byes and injuries hit and can also be excellent trade bait for teams desperate for running back help. It needs to be said in this era of fantasy football though there are many NFL teams utilizing 2+ running backs which means there are many more serviceable options to start for a fantasy squad than ten years ago. If you want to see how a flexible approach works in the first few rounds, checking out the 3rd draft position study instead which will have many similarities to this slot.

Positives of the draft slot

1. Earlier 2nd round pick than the owners drafting at the top of the board
2. Not much to choose from between the top running backs in 2009 means 4th overall isn't the handicap it was in years past when up against the owners drafting 1st/2nd
3. Can build the roster many different ways depending on how the draft unfolds.

Negatives of the draft slot

1. Long wait between odd and even round picks
2. Need to pick smart during the even rounds to ensure the 2nd player you like is available with the next pick

Part One: The Mock Draft for the #4 Slot (Stud RB Theory)

Breaking down the mock draft from draft slot #4

Round 1: RB Michael Turner

Having Turner available with the 4th overall pick is exactly why drafting fourth as opposed to first is not the liability it has often been in years past. You can make a very strong argument in fact that Turner could be the first overall draft pick this season. Simply take your top running back here and move on.

Rounds 2/3: RB Brian Westbrook / RB Darren McFadden

There are certainly many directions you can go with the second and third round picks. If running backs go off the board fast and furious right through the second round, taking two stud receivers here is certainly the way to go. In this study, I decide to test out the Stud RB theory and go RB/RB with these two picks. Having three strong running backs as your roster foundation makes everything easier going forward. It also provides trading possibilities down the road as inevitably there will be a couple of fantasy squads desperate for RB help. Westbrook could be a first round pick and has a real opportunity at another top-ten finish while McFadden has the upside that makes fantasy owners drool. After three draft picks, my squad has the best depth at running back in the entire league.

Rounds 4/5: WR Chad Ochocinco / WR Wes Welker

After ignoring receiver with my first three picks, there is no question here that I must target the receiver position. Landing Ochocinco with my fourth selection is a huge value play. Sure he is a bizarre character and could certainly go off the deep end altogether this year but he is also very capable of finishing with top-five receiving numbers. That is especially so with a determined Carson Palmer ready to put last year's disappointment behind him. Welker is an ideal fantasy starter. He is not flashy but consistent and dependable for a fantasy team. He slots in wonderfully as a 2nd or 3rd receiving option.

Rounds 6/7: WR Roy Williams / TE Kellen Winslow

I consider Hines Ward with this selection but Roy Williams has the upside you would like to see out of a WR3. There is some risk of a 'bust' season once again from Williams but with Terrell Owens out of the picture in Dallas, Williams will be counted on to provide offense this season. If his head is in the game and he works hard, there is a chance of a top-ten type of season for him. For my seventh round pick, there are a few receivers and quarterbacks I consider but Winslow has the best chance to carry my fantasy team in 2009. He has a real chance to lead his new team, the Buccaneers in receptions this season and if he stays healthy, he should slot into the top-five at the tight end position.

Rounds 8/9: QB Carson Palmer / RB Jerious Norwood

It is quarterback time and it is a huge boon to see Palmer still available. With his desire to put last year's fiasco behind him and the Bengals, he could certainly see a return to the top-five at his position this year. The Bengals have a good receiver core and Palmer should have a very good season. Landing him in the eight round can carry a fantasy team to glory. With the 9th pick, I am pleased to add Jerious Norwood who will provide the necessary depth at my RB1 spot. If something were to happen to Turner, at least now I have Norwood who would step into the starting role. Even if Turner is healthy, Norwood gets some work every game and could be a decent bye-week fill in a pinch.

At the halfway point of the draft, our team looks like this…

QB Carson Palmer

RB Michael Turner
RB Brian Westbrook
RB Darren McFadden
RB Jerious Norwood

WR Chad Ochocinco
WR Wes Welker
WR Roy Williams

TE Kellen Winslow

This squad looks very strong indeed. The running back strength is the key to the team but having the Palmer to Ochocinco connection could prove to huge for this fantasy squad as the season goes on. Another key is Winslow at tight end. If he stays healthy, there is a real chance of him catching 90+ passes for the Buccaneers in 2009. The trio at receiver is risky but both Ochocinco and Williams has the potential to greatly exceed their draft position. Wes Welker on the other hand probably won't exceed his draft position but will provide steady offense. All in all, a very encouraging start for this team.

Rounds 10-13: WR Mark Clayton, RB LeSean McCoy, QB Chad Pennington, Ravens Defense

At this point of the draft, it is nice to land a WR1 in Mark Clayton. Sure he is unproven as a top receiver in an offense but at this moment, he is the top receiver in Baltimore and it is his time to shine. If he can step into his new role and do it well, he is a steal here and provides a great 4th option at receiver. I am delighted in round 11 to add rookie LeSean McCoy to backup my RB2 Brian Westbrook. McCoy is an exciting new prospect and he'll get some work in spelling Westbrook throughout the season. If Westbrook were to suffer an injury, McCoy has the ability to step into the starting lineup and really shine. His addition really cements my running back stable. Pennington is a very good #2 quarterback that will provide steady week-to-week numbers. He is the perfect guy to slot into a starting lineup due to byes or injuries. Finally in round thirteen, I add my starting defense in the Ravens. Great spot to add a defense as most of the players left at this point are risky or have limited upside.

Rounds 14-18: RB Michael Bush, WR Miles Austin, PK Rob Bironas, Houston Defense, WR Deion Branch

Once again, I am happy to see a running back available with my pick. Bush had a great end to last season and if something happens to McFadden in 2009, I believe it will be Bush stepping into the starting lineup. Now I have three starting running backs and their backups for my running back stable. Deep and talented is a great combination and the running back strength should carry my team. Miles Austin is a pick simply to cover off a possible implosion from Roy Williams whom I drafted earlier. Williams is capable of big things this season but he is unfortunately also capable of fizzling out and disappointing everyone. To cover that risky, Austin fills one roster position and he should have the occasional good game this year even if Williams doesn't falter and has a great year. Next two picks see a good kicker added and what I think will be an improved defensive squad. I like the Ravens/Texans combo in 2009. Finally Deion Branch is added to the roster in the hope he can stay healthy and regain his form from a few seasons back. He is a candidate to be released week one depending on how he looks in preseason and the opening game of the season. He does have starting fantasy capability when healthy and could be a huge value pick.

Final Roster (Draft Slot #4 - Stud RB Theory)

QB Carson Palmer
QB Chad Pennington

RB Michael Turner
RB Brian Westbrook
RB Darren McFadden
RB Jerious Norwood
RB LeSean McCoy
RB Michael Bush

WR Chad Ochocinco
WR Wes Welker
WR Roy Williams
WR Mark Clayton
WR Miles Austin
WR Deion Branch

TE Kellen Winslow

PK Rob Bironas

DEF Ravens
DEF Texans

Final thoughts on this roster

The strength of this team is clearly at the running back position as you would expect when you go RB/RB/RB to begin a draft. Landing the backup for each of those three players really cements this unit's strength and it should provide strong fantasy production in 2009. The quarterback duo is quite strong and the starting tight end has elite potential. The kicker and defense position is also in good hands. The real question mark regarding this roster is at receiver. Ochocinco, Williams and Branch all have boom or bust potential in 2009 and this is an area that may need some work in the early weeks of the season depending on which path those receivers take. Overall though, this is a very strong looking roster that will be able to compete for the title.

Last thoughts on the #4 slot

I really like drafting from the four slot this season. Going Stud RB theory proved to be a pretty strong option this year but I'll also be tackling this slot from a more flexible position in the next study to see how it looks taking a WR in round two and/or round three instead. Landing Turner here is huge as he could just as easily be the top selection in this year's draft.