Draft Slot Study - From the #3 Position

  Posted 8/19 by Chris Smith, Exclusive for Footballguys.com

Every new NFL season there is much discussion on the positives and the negatives for each of the draft slots in a fantasy football league. While I believe it is possible to win a league no matter where you draft from, it is obvious to the veteran fantasy owner that there is some advantage to drafting in certain positions as opposed to others. This series of articles will take an in-depth look at each of the twelve draft positions in a 12-team, redraft fantasy football league for the 2009 campaign and outline the positives and negatives of each slot. In addition each separate article will showcase a mock draft compiled using the Draft Dominator.

Based on...

• 12-team redraft league / 18-round fantasy draft
  
• Must start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE
  
• Scoring is as follows:
  
  • 1 pt every 20 passing yards
    
  • 1 pt every 10 rushing yards
    
  • 4 pts per passing touchdown
    
  • 6 pts per rushing / receiving touchdown
    
  • 3 pts per field goal / 1 pt per extra point
    
  • 2 pts per interception, fumble recovery and safety
    
  • 1 pt per sack
    
  • 6 pts per defensive touchdown
    
  • 10 pts per shutout

This study is performed using the mock draft function within our own Draft Dominator software. The program gives you the ability to draft for one team and have the other teams taken over by computer control using different ADP lists. For the purpose of this study, I will use David Dodds' projections found within the Dominator.

The mock draft ability of the Dominator is a nice way to prepare for your fantasy draft. Running the same draft several times will help you to anticipate all possible scenarios when your own draft arrives. Check it out today.

If you would like to see a particular study this season, please send me an e-mail (smith@footballguys.com) and I will do my best to cover your scoring rules, starting lineup requirements, etc. before the end of training camp.

Onto the article.

Drafting third overall

With no clear-cut #1 running back available this season, sliding down the draft order is not a terrible thing in 2009. Drafting third in many prior seasons was a liability due to the first owner or two getting an elite fantasy superstar to carry their team. This year, there is not a clear-cut top choice so being 3rd is actually an advantage for the patient fantasy owner. The top benefit this owner holds over the first two owners is the early pick coming back in round two. Your foundation should be very strong with your first two picks and after that, it is simply a matter of plucking value as it slides to your spot.

Possible strategies to incorporate into your draft

The first pick is almost certainly going to be a running back. There are some good receivers however at the top of the draft board and it may not be a bad idea to target an elite receiver early instead. After I finish the twelve teams of this study, I will go back and revisit the 2nd/3rd pick slot and instead pick a receiver early to see how the team ends up. A Larry Fitzgerald / Andre Johnson can certainly carry a team. In most cases however, a pick this early will mean taking the top running back on your sheet. It is the easiest way to build a strong roster that can compete for the title.

Examples

1. League that goes RB heavy in first two rounds: Many leagues will gobble up running backs early and often in fantasy drafts. If you are in a league such as that and have an early draft choice it may be a wise move to target other positions in the next couple of rounds to build an awesome starting trio. Make sure to land your 2nd starting running back before round five is finished however or the available options may completely dry up, leaving you with a weak RB2.
   
   Possible squad through five rounds
   RB LaDainian Tomlinson
   RB Jamal Lewis
   WR Calvin Johnson
   WR Steve Smith
   WR Chad Ochocinco
   
   In the above example, Jamal Lewis may not be as appealing as RB2 as many teams have but he is a serviceable fantasy player in a non-PPR fantasy league. The starting trio at receiver will carry this squad to a playoff spot and a real shot at the title.
   
   
2. League that has more flexibility in first two rounds: In leagues that have more flexibility at the top of the draft board, there is a real opportunity to land a very strong starting RB duo in the first two rounds. The cornerstone of any great fantasy squad is usually good running back output and it is never a bad thing to go RB/RB to start the draft.
   
   Possible squad through five rounds
   RB LaDainian Tomlinson
   RB Ronnie Brown
   RB Knowshon Moreno
   WR Dwayne Bowe
   WR Chad Ochocinco

Positives of the draft slot

1. Running backs looked clumped together at the top this season
2. Early 2nd round pick is an advantage over owners drafting 1st and 2nd

Negatives of the draft slot

1. Long wait between picks
2. Do not necessarily get your choice of running backs at top of board.

Part One: The Mock Draft for the #3 Slot

Breaking down the mock draft from draft slot #3

Round 1: RB LaDainian Tomlinson

Tomlinson is a no-brainer with the third pick. He may have lost a step but he could also rediscover the form that made him an elite fantasy weapon. Tomlinson should have up to 350+ touches in 2009 and will be a strong fantasy starter even if he cannot return to his past form.

Rounds 2/3: RB Ronnie Brown / WR Dwayne Bowe

Brown is in the best shape of his football career and looks poised to finally spring into the top-five of his position. It all depends on his durability in addition to whether he can touch the ball 20 times per game throughout the entire campaign. If he can, he may become a fantasy MVP in 2009. Dwayne Bowe has put up great receiving numbers over the past couple of seasons. He should get a chance to elevate those statistics playing with Matt Cassel this season. He is a worthy WR1 in fantasy leagues.

Rounds 4/5: WR Chad Ochocinco / RB Knowshon Moreno

Everybody knows the risks in regards to selecting Ochocinco this season. He is a character in which you never really know what will happen year-to-year. However, he does appear to be working hard so far through the offseason and is in tremendous shape. With Carson Palmer back healthy, Ochocinco has top-five ability and may once again be a strong fantasy option. Moreno is a talented rookie who will get every opportunity to shine in Denver. A risky pick in round five but one that could pay dividends. If he does not work out, at least the starting duo on the roster in Tomlinson and Brown can carry the load.

Rounds 6/7: WR Antonio Bryant / WR Torry Holt

Two starting receivers join the roster in these two rounds and both are capable of sliding into the top-fifteen in 2009. Bryant has resurrected his career with the Buccaneers after multiple disappointments. He is the best receiver on the team. Holt is coming off his worst professional season but still has the talent to put up good numbers if he can stay healthy. He may be a huge value pick in round seven if he can.

Rounds 8/9: RB Darren Sproles / QB Matt Ryan

Once Tomlinson is on your squad, it is a shrewd move to target Sproles in the 7th to 8th rounds of your fantasy draft. Sproles offers some security for Tomlinson owners and may be able to start in a pinch for your roster even if Tomlinson stays healthy in 2009. Sproles will get several touches per game after his effective play last season. Landing your starting quarterback in round nine of your fantasy draft is one of the keys to a strong season. You must pay attention to the rosters and drafting tendencies of your fellow leaguemates to wait this long however, as talent does dry up at the position. Each pick, beginning in round five, reassess how many quarterbacks are on the board, who is left and which teams in your league still need a starting quarterback. In this draft, I saw a number of decent starting options so held off on pulling the trigger. Ryan is not an elite fantasy quarterback in all likelihood but should be serviceable. Waiting on both the quarterback and tight end positions certainly allows a fantasy owner to have dominant strength at running back and receiver.

At the halfway point of the draft, our team looks like this…

QB Matt Ryan

RB LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers
RB Ronnie Brown, Dolphins
RB Knowshon Moreno, Broncos
RB Darren Sproles, Chargers

WR Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs
WR Chad Ochocinco, Bengals
WR Antonio Bryant, Buccaneers
WR Torry Holt, Jaguars

This is a great start to a fantasy squad. Landing the quarterback in round nine allows the strength at running back and receiver to be at an exceptional level. If rookie Moreno earns the starting nod, both running back and receiver are in a wonderful place this season. The starting foursome at receiver has the potential to be the best in the entire league despite not picking a receiver until round three.

Rounds 10-13: TE Jeremy Shockey, WR Steve Smith (NYG), QB Chad Pennington, Ravens Defense

I fill a need in round ten with my starting tight end, Jeremy Shockey. He had a disappointing 2008 campaign but he is certainly capable of a top-ten season if he is healthy. He is in a pass-happy offensive attack and should be a capable starting tight end in fantasy football. Steve Smith is likely the WR1 for the New York Giants and therefore is a steal in the 11th round. He is a tremendous fifth option for my squad and likely will be the final receiver I take in this draft. My five receivers are deep and talented. I next manage to add my backup fantasy quarterback in Chad Pennington. He will not have many big games but should be a steady performer when called upon. In round thirteen, I select my starting defense in the Baltimore Ravens. They should finish top-ten in 2009.

Rounds 14-18: RB Michael Bush, RB LeSean McCoy, TE Marcedes Lewis, K Rob Bironas, Panthers Defense

I am pleased to land, with back-to-back picks, two young running backs capable of putting up big numbers. Both Bush and McCoy have the talent to emerge as legitimate fantasy options if the opportunity arises and are great mid-to-late round draft picks. To complete my roster in the final few rounds I add a 2nd tight end, a starting kicker and a 2nd defensive unit.

Final Roster (Draft Slot #3)

QB Matt Ryan, Falcons
QB Chad Pennington, Dolphins

RB LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers
RB Ronnie Brown, Dolphins
RB Knowshon Moreno, Broncos
RB Darren Sproles, Chargers
RB Michael Bush, Raiders
RB LeSean McCoy, Eagles

WR Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs
WR Chad Ochocinco, Bengals
WR Antonio Bryant, Buccaneers
WR Torry Holt, Jaguars
WR Steve Smith, Giants

TE Jeremy Shockey, Saints
TE Marcedes Lewis, Jaguars

K Rob Bironas, Titans

DEF Ravens defense
DEF Panthers defense

Final thoughts on this roster

Drafting from the third draft position went very well. Not only does my squad have a great one-two punch at starting running back but also has tremendous depth at receiver and good quarterbacks. The biggest concern for this squad is at tight end. Shockey needs to have a much better season than he did in 2008 or they will be a hole at production for this squad. The talent at receiver is fantastic. All five have the potential to be strong fantasy options in 2009. Having Tomlinson's backup in Sproles on board is a great way to lock in points at RB1 and there is huge potential with youngsters Bush and McCoy on roster. Overall, this is a very strong looking roster certainly capable of going for a title run. If the older veterans such as Tomlinson, Ochocinco, Holt and Shockey can rediscover their all-star form, this squad may be dominant.

Last thoughts on the #3 slot

Drafting third overall is a nice position to be in for the 2009 campaign. There have been times in the past; drafting third overall was a liability but not this season. With no clear-cut top selection, this owner can pick up a great running back early and compete with the owners in front of him as well as behind him in the draft order. The best move is almost certainly going running back with the first pick but I will run another study to see how it looks to select a WR instead with the third overall pick. That study will come out after I complete the 12th draft slot article in another week or two.