Draft Slot Study - From the #2 Position

  Posted 8/13 by Chris Smith, Exclusive for Footballguys.com

Every new NFL season there is much discussion on the positives and the negatives for each of the draft slots in a fantasy football league. While I believe it is possible to win a league no matter where you draft from, it is obvious to the veteran fantasy owner that there is some advantage to drafting in certain positions as opposed to others. This series of articles will take an in-depth look at each of the twelve draft positions in a 12-team, redraft fantasy football league for the 2009 campaign and outline the positives and negatives of each slot. In addition each separate article will showcase a mock draft compiled using the Draft Dominator.

Based on...

• 12-team redraft league / 18-round fantasy draft
  
• Must start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE
  
• Scoring is as follows:
  
  • 1 pt every 20 passing yards
    
  • 1 pt every 10 rushing yards
    
  • 4 pts per passing touchdown
    
  • 6 pts per rushing / receiving touchdown
    
  • 3 pts per field goal / 1 pt per extra point
    
  • 2 pts per interception, fumble recovery and safety
    
  • 1 pt per sack
    
  • 6 pts per defensive touchdown
    
  • 10 pts per shutout

This study is performed using the mock draft function within our own Draft Dominator software. The program gives you the ability to draft for one team and have the other teams taken over by computer control using different ADP lists. For the purpose of this study, I will use David Dodds' projections found within the Dominator.

The mock draft ability of the Dominator is a nice way to prepare for your fantasy draft. Running the same draft several times will help you to anticipate all possible scenarios when your own draft arrives. Check it out today.

If you would like to see a particular study this season, please send me an e-mail (smith@footballguys.com) and I will do my best to cover your scoring rules, starting lineup requirements, etc. before the end of training camp.

Onto the article.

Drafting second overall

Drafting second overall this season is not as appealing as it has been in years past. There is no clear-cut 2nd running back to select and it appears drafting 3rd to 5th in 2009 may provide more value with the better picks throughout the even rounds. That said however, an owner will get one of the top running backs on the board, and with three of the first twenty-six picks of the draft, this owner will have a strong foundation to carry a squad throughout the season. When drafting in this slot, do not over complicate things. Simply pick the running back that falls to your second overall pick and then allow the draft to unfold and scoop up value throughout the draft. Getting an elite running back early, allows a fantasy owner to avoid targeting the running back position in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, instead picking value at other positions if it is there. This is one of the easiest positions to draft from in 2009.

Possible strategies to incorporate into your draft

There is so much flexibility when drafting from the #2 slot. Since you have already drafted a stud running back guaranteed to, if healthy, score a ton of points for your squad, you can simply target the top player on your cheat sheet for the next couple of rounds.

Examples

1. League that goes RB heavy in first two rounds: Many leagues see a ton of running backs go off the board in the first two rounds. If that happens this owner may decide to forgo the running back position in his next two picks and instead look at building a deep, strong foundation. In this type of league, it would be a shrewd move to start your squad, RB, WR, WR (RB Adrian Peterson, WR Andre Johnson and WR Larry Fitzgerald). If you do start your draft with only one running back in the first three picks, it is important to target the running back position with your 4th and 5th round picks to secure talent unless exceptional value is there at your pick.
   
   Possible squad through five rounds
   RB Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars
   RB Jamal Lewis, Ravens
   RB Jonathan Stewart, Panthers
   WR Steve Smith, Panthers
   WR Reggie Wayne, Colts
   
   Starting your squad with the above five players would be a huge advantage on the rest of the league. Two elite receivers, a great running back and two decent starting running backs would be a major achievement right out of the gate.
   
   
2. League that has more flexibility in first two rounds: In some leagues, fellow owners simply take the best available player in the first two rounds. In this case, many receivers and a couple of quarterbacks may be off the board when the 23rd and 26th picks roll around. In this case you should simply take the best two players still on the board, no matter if that player is a running back, receiver or quarterback. In a league like this you may start RB, RB, TE / RB, RB, RB /RB, WR, WR / RB / QB or many other possible combinations. An owner selecting first overall must be flexible and allow his predraft strategy to twist depending on who is still on the board.
   
   Possible squad through five rounds
   RB Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars
   RB Ronnie Brown, Dolphins
   RB Knowshon Moreno, Broncos
   WR Greg Jennings, Packers
   WR Chad Ochocinco, Bengals

Positives of the draft slot

1. Three of the first 26 players selected
   
2. Five of the first 50 players selected
   
3. Landing stud running back allows for more flexibility in your draft
   
4. 4. Close picks in the even-to-odd rounds can offer a lot of value
   
5. With astute drafting, this owner can always be ahead of the curve

Negatives of the draft slot

1. Long time between draft picks
   
2. Watching player after player you like falling off the board
   
3. Can be impacted negatively by a large positional run

Part One: The Mock Draft for the #2 Slot

Breaking down the mock draft from draft slot #2

Round 1: RB Maurice Jones-Drew

The problem with the second overall pick in fantasy drafts this season is the lack of a clear-cut running back to select in this spot. It is too early for a receiver and the best play here is simply to take the top running back on your board and not look back. If you feel like rolling the dice here, taking a WR Larry Fitzgerald or WR Andre Johnson is high risk but it could work out for your team. I will do a second slots article for this draft position and instead of running back, select a top receiver and see how the draft unfolds. For this study though, Jones-Drew is the way to go.

Rounds 2/3: RB Ronnie Brown / WR Greg Jennings

There were no predraft plans for these two picks as the best draft technique here is to allow the value to fall to your two picks. Ronnie Brown has tremendous upside for a late 2nd-round selection and Greg Jennings should once again put together strong WR1 numbers in 2009. The two starting running backs and strong receiver are a very good beginning to a fantasy squad.

Rounds 4/5: WR Chad Ochocinco / RB Knowshon Moreno

There would be consideration of a strong QB in either of these two picks if a top-five quarterback falls to this point in the draft. However no quarterbacks are available that scream value here and so it makes sense to add a WR2 and RB3 to the mix. Ochocinco is a top-five fantasy receiver when his head is in the game and he has incredible upside that belies his 47th spot in this draft. Moreno is a rookie that the Broncos are quite high on. He may certainly wind up in a RBBC (running back by committee) but has the talent to step in as a starter and not look back. He is a rookie with excellent upside and may become a cornerstone of fantasy teams in 2009.

Rounds 6/7: WR Roy Williams / TE Kellen Winslow

Once again, I do consider a quarterback with these two picks but looking at the draft board, there is a very real chance that a QB Carson Palmer / QB Matt Ryan will be available in the eighth round instead. So holding off from taking a quarterback, it makes sense to add a starting WR that could be a big fantasy weapon if he rediscovers his game in addition to Kellen Winslow who is certainly a top-five talent at the tight end position if he can stay healthy. Neither pick is a flashy one but both could help to put this team over the top if they play up to their potential

Rounds 8/9: QB Matt Ryan / RB Fred Jackson

It is important to land your starting quarterback in the first half of your draft. Not much longer after this point in the draft, many of the quarterbacks still available have question marks that should not be ignored. Matt Ryan has no such stigma attached to his name. He is young, talented and put up solid second half numbers last season. He will be even better in his 2nd season. RB Fred Jackson may be in an interesting scenario. He has been running well throughout offseason and with RB Marshawn Lynch getting into trouble of various sorts plus being suspended for the first three games of the season, Jackson could earn more and more trust as the season goes on. He has a real opportunity to become a steal of fantasy drafts in 2009.

At the halfway point of the draft, our team looks like this…

QB Matt Ryan

RB Maurice Jones-Drew
RB Ronnie Brown
RB Knowshon Moreno
RB Fred Jackson

WR Greg Jennings
WR Chad Ochocinco
WR Roy Williams

TE Kellen Winslow

This squad has a nice blend of experience and upside. Matt Ryan is a steal with the 95th pick in the draft, Jones-Drew and Brown can be elite fantasy weapons if they can stay healthy throughout the season. Jennings, Ochocinco and Williams should form a strong trio despite some of the questionable antics of Ochocinco and Williams. Moreno and Jackson are two running backs that may be in the right situation to step in and make an impact. All in all, this is a very good beginning.

Rounds 10-13: WR Michael Crabtree / WR Steve Smith / QB Joe Flacco / RB LeSean McCoy

This is an interesting point in the draft. There are many different paths to take here depending on who is available when the picks arrive. In this case, getting two young receivers in excellent situations is a strong move. Crabtree may be a rookie but has the ability to dominate football games and Smith looks like he is stepping into the top receiver role on the team almost be default. I may be able to wait at quarterback but not too many are left and I do not want question marks in behind my starter. Last, we have McCoy who is the future starter in Philadelphia but for now will provide good depth behind Brian Westbrook and should see some starts when and if Westbrook is injured.

Rounds 14-18: DEF - Ravens defense / RB Michael Bush / WR Deion Branch / PK Neil Rackers / TE Marcedes Lewis

At this point in the draft, you round out your roster by adding a kicker, a defense or two and any other value you see slip to your picks. Michael Bush is another swing for the fences running back that will get more looks than many fantasy owners may believe. This roster is fleshed out with a good kicker in Rackers and a good defense in the Ravens. I will look at adding a 2nd defense in the weeks ahead.

Final Roster (Draft Slot #2)

QB Matt Ryan
QB Joe Flacco

RB Maurice Jones-Drew
RB Ronnie Brown
RB Knowshon Moreno
RB Fred Jackson
RB LeSean McCoy
RB Michael Bush

WR Greg Jennings
WR Chad Ochocinco
WR Roy Williams
WR Michael Crabtree
WR Steve Smith
WR Deion Branch

TE Kellen Winslow
TE Marcedes Lewis

DEF Ravens defense

Final thoughts on this roster

This squad has excellent depth and upside at both the running back and receiver position. The starting two running backs (Jones-Drew / Brown) have top-eight potential if they stay healthy and the other four running backs on roster all have a significant upside and are in decent situations. The receiving core is not flashy but the talent is certainly there. If Ochocinco and Williams can become true team players and focus on getting open and catching the ball, this unit may be very strong. There are some boom and bust possibilities from the receiving core though. Matt Ryan should be a good starting quarterback while Flacco has enough ability to put up decent points on a consistent basis. If Winslow can stay healthy and finish top-five, this squad will be among the league leaders.

Last thoughts on the #2 slot

Drafting second overall is not as great this season as in years past. There is no obvious choice for the second overall pick and in all likelihood the players selected third through sixth overall will be every bit as talented and explosive as the second overall picks. That said, with smart drafting, a flexible approach and patience, this team could certainly be one of the better units heading into the playoffs. VALUE, VALUE, and more VALUE is the key ingredients with this slot.