Draft Slot Study - From the 11th/12th Draft Positions

  Posted 8/25 by Chris Smith, Exclusive for Footballguys.com

Every season there is much discussion on the positives and the negatives for each of the draft slots in a fantasy football league. While I believe it is possible to win a league no matter where you draft from, it is obvious to the veteran fantasy owner that there is some advantage to drafting in certain positions as opposed to others. This series of articles will take an in-depth look at each of the twelve draft positions in a 12-team, redraft fantasy football league and outline the positives and negatives of each slot. In addition each separate article will showcase a mock draft compiled using the Draft Dominator.

Based on...

• 12-team redraft league / 18-round fantasy draft
  
• Must start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE
  
• Scoring is as follows:
  
  • 1 pt every 20 passing yards
    
  • 1 pt every 10 rushing yards
    
  • 4 pts per passing touchdown
    
  • 6 pts per rushing / receiving touchdown
    
  • 3 pts per field goal / 1 pt per extra point
    
  • 2 pts per interception, fumble recovery and safety
    
  • 1 pt per sack
    
  • 6 pts per defensive touchdown
    
  • 10 pts per shutout

This study is performed using the mock draft function within our own Draft Dominator software. The program gives you the ability to draft for one team and have the other teams taken over by computer control using different ADP lists. For the purpose of this study, I will use David Dodds' projections found within the Dominator.

The mock draft ability of the Dominator is a nice way to prepare for your fantasy draft. Running the same draft several times will help you to anticipate all possible scenarios when your own draft arrives. Check it out today.

If you would like to see a particular study this season, please send me an e-mail (smith@footballguys.com) and I will do my best to cover your scoring rules, starting lineup requirements, etc. before the end of training camp.

Onto the article.

Drafting 11th/12th overall

With some similarities between draft positions, I have decided to lump the remaining eight draft slots into four articles. This article has combined the 11th and 12th draft slots into one article.

Possible strategies to incorporate into your draft

There are many different ways you can take this draft. The conventional approach for years has been the RB/RB approach to secure a very strong starting dual. There is nothing wrong with that thought process and it usually works out quite well. The only issue is the long wait between the 2nd and 3rd round picks and the possibility of many strong receivers also being off the board when the next pick arrives. Another approach can be the WR/WR approach securing top-end receiver talent and looking for running back options in rounds three through six. If you are in a heavy-RB league that sees 9+ running backs off the board when the 12h pick arrives, I think the WR/WR strategy can be not only a good decision but a great one. Another less conventional approach would be to target one of the top QBs on the board in Drew Brees / Tom Brady but I really dislike taking a quarterback in the first two rounds as it can cripple your squad if injury strikes that player. If your league favors quarterback scoring however, my opinion does change. Let's look at a couple of different draft options.

Examples

1. League that goes RB heavy in first two rounds: Many leagues out there still feature running backs flying off the board in the first two rounds. If you league is similar to this, do NOT be afraid to buck the trend and look towards the receiver position instead. Fantasy points are fantasy points and if you secure a huge advantage at receiver, you can win your league with average running back play. It all depends on if the top receiver talent is on the board when your 10th round pick arrives.
   
   Possible squad through five rounds
   RB Joseph Addai 5.12
   RB Thomas Jones 3.12
   WR Larry Fitzgerald 1.12
   WR Andre Johnson 2.01
   WR Chad Ochocinco 4.12
   
   Obviously many fantasy leagues are not going to have both elite receivers available at the end of round one. However if both of these guys are available, taking Fitzgerald and Johnson as the first two picks for this squad is almost a no-brainer. This would be a fantastic start to the draft and as the above example illustrates it is possible to find two decent starting running back options in the first five rounds even if you go WR/WR to begin a draft. Jones and Addai isn't a spectacular duo but it is good enough with an elite receiver package to start each week.
   
   
2. League that has more flexibility in first two rounds: If your league has more flexibility in the top include the best quarterbacks and receivers off the board, then a more conventional approach is in order. The true key in drafting at the end of the round is to allow the draft to unfold and then choose your direction. Being a sheep will only result in a mediocre squad so look for the best players available regardless of position and build strength that can push your squad to the playoffs.
   
   Possible squad through five rounds
   RB DeAngelo Williams 1.12
   RB Marshawn Lynch 4.01
   RB Knowshon Moreno 5.12
   WR Calvin Johnson 2.01
   WR Wes Welker 3.12
   

   After mocking the 2nd example above, I truly think the best chance for success from the 11th and 12th hole this season is to take at least one receiver in the first two rounds and two receivers if talent drops to your picks here. There are a lot of running backs in the 3rd through 5th rounds to pick up that can do well this season and the receiver position appears to have a hole in rounds three and four as far as value goes. WR/WR in the first two rounds can really pay dividends from this draft slot.

Positives of the draft slot

• Back-to-back picks can really influence the draft decisions that come after your picks
  Talent will always slide to this spot. Important to scoop it up and not worry too much about positions. Take the top talent

Negatives of the draft slot

• Long wait between picks
• Making the wrong choice can be a huge detriment
  

Part One: The Mock Draft for the #12 Slot

Breaking down the mock draft from draft slot #12

Round 1/2: RB Frank Gore, QB Drew Brees

It is important simply to take the best two players with the 12th and 13th overall picks. No matter what positions these picks are, you cannot afford to be behind the eight ball compared to other owners. As a result, do not plan on taking certain positions at this spot, instead letting the draft unfold before making your decision. Gore is a great first pick as he does have the ability to slide into the top-five if he can stay healthy.

Very rarely will I select a quarterback in the first several rounds of the draft. In this study, it pained me to take a quarterback this early but looking at the early draft board, the player that gives my squad the best chance to leapfrog the owners ahead of me is Drew Brees. He has the ability to put up monster fantasy numbers and can be the cornerstone of this fantasy team. If you do look at a quarterback with any picks in the first few rounds, do not even consider a 2nd quarterback until late in your fantasy draft. You are rolling the dice on a healthy quarterback all season if you take one early and your backup quarterback becomes a very low priority.

Rounds 3/4: RB Thomas Jones / WR Marques Colston

It is nice to see Thomas Jones still on the board with the 36th pick. He is getting a little long in the tooth but can put up very nice fantasy numbers behind a pretty good Jets offensive line. I do think here that it would be a nice addition to add his talented backup, Leon Washington at some point later in the draft to secure these fantasy points. Next I really roll the dice with this squad by picking up Colston. If he can stay healthy, the double points between Brees and Colston could carry this squad to very lofty levels. If the Saints passing attack fizzles, this fantasy squad could go up in flames but drafting late in the pecking order, you must be willing to take some educated risks.

Rounds 5/6: RB Willie Parker / WR Roy Williams

RB Willie Parker is another player that I am pleased is on the draft board here. He is the starter in Pittsburgh and at least will be a dynamic backup for my team. There is a real chance however that he starts as many games as he backups for this team in 2009. Williams is a swing for the fences pick. If he can rediscover his past form from college, he has the ability to put up huge fantasy statistics and the Cowboys want him to be the top dog this season. He is certainly a boom or bust player.

Rounds 7/8: WR Antonio Bryant / RB Leon Washington

Antonio Bryant is a no-brainer with my 7th round pick. He is more certain than perhaps both of my other receivers and should be a dynamic WR3 for my squad. His upside isn't as high perhaps as my other two receivers but if they falter, he can hold his own as a WR1. I debate waiting until my 9th round pick to land Leon Washington but I really like this kid and want him to backup Thomas Jones and secure fantasy points at RB2. Without a guarantee he lasts until the end of round nine, I scoop him up here.

Round 9/10: WR Kevin Walter / TE Kellen Winslow

The final two picks of the first half of my draft come and go and I am pleased to add a good WR4 for my team in Kevin Walter as well as Kellen Winslow who has the talent to be a top fantasy player if he can stay healthy.

At the halfway point of the draft, our team looks like this…

QB Drew Brees, Saints

RB Frank Gore, 49ers
RB Thomas Jones, Jets
RB Willie Parker, Steelers
RB Leon Washington, Jets

WR Marques Colston, Saints
WR Roy Williams, Cowboys
WR Antonio Bryant, Buccaneers
WR Kevin Walter, Texans

TE Kellen Winslow, Buccaneers

When drafting from the final draft slot, it is necessary to take some chances to eclipse the owners with a better 1st round pick. Having secured talent such as Brees, Gore, Jones, Parker, Colston, Williams, Bryant and Winslow, this squad is on the way to not only being good, but great this season. Of course if the Saints passing attack falters, Colston/Gore cannot stay healthy and Roy Williams continues to disappoint, this squad may struggle but if your goal is to win your title, you must make some 'swing for the fences' picks. You'll notice no second quarterback pick yet. Keep holding off if you select one early and depend on that player to carry your squad. Take your 2nd quarterback only when no other real options present itself.

Rounds 11-14: WR Steve Smith / RB LeSean McCoy / WR Mark Clayton / DEF Ravens D

In the next four picks, I target a youth movement in hopes that talent and upside can turn into production this season. The two young receivers especially have the talent to emerge as the top receivers for their team this season and if that happens, my squad's fortunes would take a big leap. McCoy has looked good in preseason and there is a strong possibility that Brian Westbrook will miss some time this season as his past record would indicate. The Ravens are a strong defense and landing them in the 14th round is fantastic.

Rounds 15-18: QB Jake Delhomme / PK Neil Rackers / RB Glen Coffee / DEF Panthers D

In the latter stages of the draft, I add my backup quarterback in Delhomme, my starting kicker, my 2nd defense and a running back to backup my own RB1 (Frank Gore). Coffee is an intriguing running back prospect to land this late in the draft and if he doesn't pan out, it will give me somebody to drop for early waiver wire options.

Final Roster (Draft Slot #12)

QB Drew Brees, Saints
QB Jake Delhomme, Panthers

RB Frank Gore, 49ers
RB Thomas Jones, Jets
RB Willie Parker, Steelers
RB Leon Washington, Jets
RB LeSean McCoy, Eagles
RB Glen Coffee, 49ers

WR Marques Colston, Saints
WR Roy Williams, Cowboys
WR Antonio Bryant, Buccaneers
WR Kevin Walter, Texans
WR Steve Smith, New York Giants
WR Mark Clayton, Ravens

TE Kellen Winslow, Buccaneers

PK Neil Rackers, Cardinals

DEF Ravens
DEF Panthers

Final thoughts on this roster

With six players at both running back and receiver, I am hopeful that depth will make up for drafting a quarterback in round two. If Brees can play up to his form from the past couple of seasons, he will be a major part of this squad's push to the title. I really didn't care which player I secured to back up Brees as long as I landed him late in the draft. Delhomme will suit the bill nicely as I plan on playing Brees every week but his bye week. My running back stable looks very strong. I have good depth and excellent upside. The same can be said with the receiver position as all six players are capable of putting up nice numbers. I only drafted one tight end and if Winslow cannot stay healthy, I'll be forced to pluck a below-average starting option from the waiver wire. If he does stay healthy, though, my squad looks tough to beat.

Last thoughts on the #11/12 slots

It is always a challenge to draft from the opposite end in the draft order. Obviously the players at the top end of round one are securing the top-tier talent but an owner willing to buck trends and pick up the best talent each time the two picks roll around can put together a very strong squad. It is very important not to lock into certain positions at certain places in this draft slot. Instead, let the draft unfold and pick up the best talent each time your pick rolls around and adjust your strategy as you go.

Good luck and happy drafting!