Draft Slot Study - From the #1 Position

  Posted 8/13 by Chris Smith, Exclusive for Footballguys.com

Every season there is much discussion on the positives and the negatives for each of the draft slots in a fantasy football league. While I believe it is possible to win a league no matter where you draft from, it is obvious to the veteran fantasy owner that there is some advantage to drafting in certain positions as opposed to others. This series of articles will take an in-depth look at each of the twelve draft positions in a 12-team, redraft fantasy football league and outline the positives and negatives of each slot. In addition each separate article will showcase a mock draft compiled using the Draft Dominator.

Based on...

• 12-team redraft league / 18-round fantasy draft
  
• Must start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE
  
• Scoring is as follows:
  
  • 1 pt every 20 passing yards
    
  • 1 pt every 10 rushing yards
    
  • 4 pts per passing touchdown
    
  • 6 pts per rushing / receiving touchdown
    
  • 3 pts per field goal / 1 pt per extra point
    
  • 2 pts per interception, fumble recovery and safety
    
  • 1 pt per sack
    
  • 6 pts per defensive touchdown
    
  • 10 pts per shutout

This study is performed using the mock draft function within our own Draft Dominator software. The program gives you the ability to draft for one team and have the other teams taken over by computer control using different ADP lists. For the purpose of this study, I will use David Dodds' projections found within the Dominator.

The mock draft ability of the Dominator is a nice way to prepare for your fantasy draft. Running the same draft several times will help you to anticipate all possible scenarios when your own draft arrives. Check it out today.

If you would like to see a particular study this season, please send me an e-mail (smith@footballguys.com) and I will do my best to cover your scoring rules, starting lineup requirements, etc. before the end of training camp.

Onto the article.

Drafting first overall

In past years, drafting first overall was the place to be. However, with no clear-cut top pick available and value littered throughout the top-50 picks, the top draft slot is not as appealing as it has been in the past. Still, there is nothing wrong with selecting the best player on your board and talent will always fall to this owner as the draft progresses if he stays flexible and allows the draft to fall to him. Do not go into this draft with a preconceived notion in regards to what position to target in a particular round. Stay loose and allow the draft to unfold, making your back-to-back picks really count when your turn comes up.

Possible strategies to incorporate into your draft

There is so much flexibility when drafting from the top slot. Since you have already drafted a stud running back guaranteed to, if healthy, score a ton of points for your squad, you can simply target the top player on your cheatsheet for the next couple of rounds.

Examples

1. League that goes RB heavy in first two rounds: Many leagues see a ton of running backs go off the board in the first two rounds. If that happens this owner may decide to forgo the running back position in his next two picks and instead look at building a deep, strong foundation. In this type of league, it would be a shrewd move to start your squad, RB, WR, WR (RB Adrian Peterson, WR Andre Johnson and WR Larry Fitzgerald). If you do start your draft with only one running back in the first three picks, it is important to target the running back position with your 4th and 5th round picks to secure talent unless exceptional value is there at your pick.
   
   Possible squad through five rounds
   RB Adrian Peterson Vikings
   RB Jamal Lewis, Ravens
   RB Jonathan Stewart, Panthers
   WR Roddy White, Falcons
   WR Reggie Wayne, Colts
   
   Starting your squad with the above five players would be a huge advantage on the rest of the league. Two elite receivers, a great running back and two decent starting running backs would be a major achievement right out of the gate.
   
   
2. League that has more flexibility in first two rounds: In some leagues fellow owners simply take the best available player in the first two rounds. In this case, many receivers and a couple of quarterbacks may be off the board when the 24th and 25th picks roll around. In this case you should simply take the best two players still on the board, no matter if that player is a running back, receiver or quarterback. In a league like this you may start RB, RB, TE / RB, RB, RB /RB, WR, WR / RB / QB or many other possible combinations. An owner selecting first overall must be flexible and allow his predraft strategy to twist depending on who is still on the board.
   
   Possible squad through five rounds
   RB Adrian Peterson, Vikings
   RB Ronnie Brown, Dolphins
   RB Larry Johnson, Chiefs
   WR Chad Ochocinco, Bengals
   WR DeSean Jackson, Eagles

Positives of the draft slot

1. Three of the first 25 players selected
   
2. Five of the first 49 players selected
   
3. Landing stud running back allows for more flexibility in your draft
   
4. Back-to-back picks can offer a lot of value
   
5. With astute drafting, this owner can always be ahead of the curve

Negatives of the draft slot

1. Long time between draft picks
   
2. Watching player after player you like falling off the board
   
3. Can be impacted negatively by a large positional run

Part One: The Mock Draft for the #1 Slot

Breaking down the mock draft from draft slot #1

Round 1: RB Adrian Peterson, Vikings

With the top pick in the fantasy draft, simply take the top running back on your board and move on. In this study, that player is Adrian Peterson. Later in the draft, handcuffing Peterson with his teammate RB Chester Taylor will help solidify your RB1 points.

Rounds 2/3: WR Roddy White, Falcons / RB Marion Barber, Cowboys

There are so many different directions to go with this pick. That is why it is important to not target a certain position and instead pick the top two players still on your draft board. In this scenario, landing a WR1 and RB2 for the squad makes the most sense but there are multiple possibilities depending on who falls to your back-to-back picks here. White has developed into an elite fantasy receiver while Barber has the potential to slide into the top-ten at the running back position. These two additions make the foundation of this squad very stable.

Rounds 4/5: WR Chad Ochocinco, Bengals / RB Derrick Ward, Buccaneers

Once again as with the turn in rounds 2/3, don't fall in love with a particular position, instead drafting for value. Also at this stage of the draft, attempt to project into the following two rounds to determine which players/positions may be available to your following two picks. Projecting out may help you to hold off on one position, seeing players that may fall to your next pick. For example, there are multiple quarterbacks available here that are all good starting prospects. It makes more sense to hold off on the position, instead adding talent at RB and WR. In this case, Ochocinco offers tremendous upside along with the possibility of implosion and Ward has the size and ability to mirror what Michael Turner accomplished in Atlanta last season. As the 49th overall pick, Ward certainly offers a great deal of upside.

Rounds 6/7: QB Carson Palmer, Bengals / WR Torry Holt, Jacksonville

This is what I am talking about when I mentioned repeatedly about value. Throughout the draft, there will be instances where players drop lower than they probably should and both of these picks are a good example of that. Palmer is an elite fantasy quarterback when healthy and by all accounts, he has had an amazing offseason. He is the 14th quarterback taken off the board and has the potential to be a huge value pick in 2009. Holt had a disappointing 2008 campaign, but when healthy, can take over and dominate football games. Even if he cannot match his past production when he was a top fantasy receiver, he is still an outstanding WR3 for a fantasy squad.

Rounds 8/9: RB Chester Taylor, Vikings / WR Kevin Walter, Texans

Going into this draft, I was hopeful to see Chester Taylor available at this point of the draft. It makes no sense to select him before this point but if you can land him in rounds 8/9 of the draft, he really helps to solidify your top draft pick. Taylor is the ultimate security blanket for a Peterson owner and is capable of making a spot start for a fantasy squad in a pinch. Very pleased to land him at this point in the draft. Walter is a steady receiver that can fill in during bye weeks and perhaps surprise with a very strong week. He is the ideal WR4 for a fantasy squad. However, with the 9th round pick, I was hopeful that TE Greg Olsen would be available as he has a real chance to finish as a top-three tight end in 2009. It was not meant to be when the pick came around though and Walter will provide nice depth for my squad.

At the halfway point of the draft, our team looks like this…

QB Carson Palmer

RB Adrian Peterson
RB Marion Barber
RB Derrick Ward
RB Chester Taylor

WR Roddy White
WR Chad Ochocinco
WR Torry Holt
WR Kevin Walter

This is a very strong squad through the first nine selections. Great depth at the two key positions is a huge luxury in fantasy football and having a possible top-five quarterback on the roster is a major boon for the squad. Picking up Chester Taylor to compliment the Adrian Peterson selection is a wonderful play as it almost guarantees points from your RB1 slot and there is tons of potential for huge weeks from the receiver slot. Obviously going forward, I must add a capable tight end or two, a starting kicker, a couple of defenses and a little more depth but the pieces are already in place for a good run in 2009. Now, let's continue with the rest of the draft.

Rounds 10-13: TE Jeremy Shockey / WR Michael Crabtree / QB Joe Flacco / DEF Ravens Defense

This is the time in the draft I will always select my starting tight end if I do not already have one on roster and my first defense. Then it really depends on whom I like on my draft board and which players are likely to drop down further. Landing Jeremy Shockey in the 10th round could be a very shrewd move. There is boom or bust potential with the pick but he is capable of a top-five season in a pass-happy offense. Crabtree has elite potential and with four good, veteran receivers already on board, Crabtree will not cost my fantasy squad victories if he struggles in his rookie campaign. He has talent and may emerge as a starter. By round 12, I was willing to take any serviceable quarterback to backup my fantasy starter in Carson Palmer. Flacco fits the bill well. Finally, in round thirteen I take the Ravens to be my foundation defense. I will look to add a complimentary defense later in the draft.

Rounds 14-18: RB LeSean McCoy / RB Michael Bush / PK Ryan Longwell / DEF Texans Defense / TE Brandon Pettigrew

With back-to-back picks in the 14th/15th rounds, I added two young running backs with exceptional potential. Bush enjoyed a 177-yard performance against the Buccaneers at the end of last season while McCoy is being groomed to eventually replace Brian Westbrook in Philadelphia and may get many touches. Both have legitimate 'BOOM' potential and are huge value picks. I round out the draft by adding a kicker, a 2nd defense I believe will compliment the Ravens nicely in the Texans and finally rookie TE Brandon Pettigrew who has lots of talent and could see plenty of targets in his first season.

Final Roster (Draft Slot #1)

QB Carson Palmer
QB Joe Flacco

RB Adrian Peterson
RB Marion Barber
RB Derrick Ward
RB Chester Taylor
RB LeSean McCoy [r]
RB Michael Bush

WR Roddy White
WR Chad Ochocinco
WR Torry Holt
WR Kevin Walter
WR Michael Crabtree [r]

TE Jeremy Shockey
TE Brandon Pettigrew [r]

K Ryan Longwell

DEF Ravens
DEF Texans

Final thoughts on this roster

This squad has lots of depth and lots of potential. The experienced starting unit features Palmer, Peterson, Barber, White, Ochocinco, Holt and Shockey lining up as opening day starters. However, this squad also has upside with players such as McCoy, Bush, Crabtree and Pettigrew. In addition, handcuffing top draft choice Peterson with his veteran backup Chester Taylor will help to solidify points from the RB1 slot. Overall, this squad will have an excellent chance at a title in 2009.

Last thoughts on the #1 slot

Drafting 1st overall is without question an advantage in fantasy football. It has always been one of the more coveted positions to begin a team from and that is unlikely to change going forward. If you are 1st overall this season, take your favorite running back and then sit back and let the draft unfold, plucking the best value throughout the draft. Stay calm, stay flexible and you'll dominate your draft.