Week 17 Sleeper Report
Updated 12/30 by Bob Henry, Exclusive for Footballguys.com
This weekly article takes a look at players who are probably not in your weekly starting lineup. Each position is analyzed to identify players that may perform better than usual. The reasons vary depending on the specific circumstances of the player and team, such as:
- Favorable matchups based on their opponent's defensive trends
- Specific player matchups or injuries to the opposing team's defense
- Increased playing time due to an injury to a starter or coaching decisions
Sometimes a player is considered if they are normally a starter, but have a bad matchup. Each position is covered in descending order beginning with players most likely to outperform their usual production to those who are certifiable reaches. Your mileage will vary depending on the particulars of your league size and scoring, but we'll try to identify players that could benefit all leagues. We hope to provide you with some analysis that will make those difficult lineup decisions a bit easier.
Happy New Year to everyone!! Thanks for reading this year. Please be sure to send along any comments or feedback that would allow me to improve this article for next season. Enjoy the off-season and get ready for the NFL draft season!
Quarterback
Prime Cut (Great matchup, strong sleeper)Eli Manning - NYG - If the Giants aren't embarrassed by their performance at home against the Panthers last week, they should be. They didn't appear to have much fight left in them in that game, so it's a bit risky putting too much onus on them in the last week, but of all their struggles, Eli Manning still produced solid fantasy numbers with 296 yards, 1 TD and a pair of INTs. Manning has thrown for 215 yards or more in 9 straight games and he has thrown for 3 TDs passes in three of his last six games. The Vikings defense is also more vulnerable through the air than they are on the ground. Three of the last four QBs to play Minnesota have thrown for 270+ yards and 3 or more TDs. Expect another strong day from Eli with similar numbers -- 250+ yards and 2+ TDs.
Jay Cutler - CHI - The baseline for Jay Cutler this week appears to be around 230 yards and 1 or 2 TDs. That is what the last four QBs have produced against the Lions. Actually, the last eight quarterbacks to play the Lions have all attained those numbers or better. Cutler was one of the few QBs this year that has not produced similar numbers or better when they played in Week 4, but Cutler was still a productive fantasy QB with 141 yards passing, 2 TDs and a rushing TD. That Devin Hester has been sidelined may not be as much of a negative factor as originally thought. Devin Aromashodu has stepped in nicely and he gives Cutler a bigger target downfield, too. Be wary of Cutler throwing multiple picks as he has that tendency, but he and the Bears rallied nicely against the Vikings on Monday Night and they have a chance to finish the season on a high note with a pair of strong performances to build on going into the offseason.
Worth a Gamble (Good matchup, solid sleeper)
Chad Henne - MIA - Henne has thrown for 300 or more yards in three of the Dolphins last four games as he has fully taken advantage of a string of good matchups (New England, Jacksonville, Tennessee and Houston). That string continues this week against a Steelers pass defense that has been unable to slow opponents without Troy Polamalu in the lineup. Henne is known to throw a pick or two (that tendency goes back to his days as a Wolverine), but he can make all of the throws and under this guidance the Dolphins offense has been moving the ball consistently. Since Week 10, the Steelers have just one interception against 11 TDs allowed while opposing QBs have averaged almost 250 yards per game. Henne is slightly riskier than other QBs in this week's article (Flacco and Orton), but he has a higher upside. If your league's scoring doesn't hurt you for interceptions, then Henne is among the better plays among sleeper QBs this week.
Joe Flacco - BAL - The good news for Flacco's owners is that the Ravens have a lot on the line this week. They need to win to get into the playoffs, which bodes well for all of the Ravens players. The Raiders are a good matchup allowing 236 yards and 1.3 TDs while recording an interception about every third game. After a midseason slump, partially explainable due to injuries and tougher matchups, Flacco has rebounded nicely down the stretch. He has thrown for 630 yards, 7 TDs and 1 INT in his last three games (against Detroit, Chicago and Pittsburgh). None of those have been particularly tough matchups, but neither are the Raiders. The Ravens running game will keep the Raiders defense preoccupied buying time for Flacco and the passing game to make big plays off play action and they will take their shots downfield. Expect another solid game from Flacco to finish the regular season.
Solid Reach (backup / situational player with upside)
Kyle Orton - DEN - The Chiefs inability to stop the run is their bigger concern, but when these two teams met in Kansas City during Week 13, Kyle Orton had a solid, if not unspectacular day as the Broncos won handily 44-13 behind their running attack. The Broncos ran 42 times for almost 250 yards and 2 TDs. Orton still managed to throw for 180 yards and 2 TDs with an interception. Chances are, things will play out similarly this weekend in Denver. Orton probably won't have to throw the ball 35 times much less 30 times. He attempted only 25 passes in Week 13 and the nine of the last ten threw the ball 30 times or less. Beyond that lack of pass attempts, it's a good matchup for Orton and he should be able to take advantage of it for similar numbers. Four of the last five QBs have thrown at least 2 TDs against the Chiefs. Orton looks like a safe play considering the Chiefs tendency to give up big plays and their pass rush isn't nearly as aggressive as the Eagles, who Orton faced last week when he threw for 189 yards and 3 TDs. Bottom line, Orton is among the safer picks this week, but his potential may be limited by their ability to run the ball well against a Chiefs defense that was overwhelmed by their ground game when they met previously. Expect more of the same.
Alex Smith - SF - The 49ers shouldn't have much of a problem moving the ball against a Rams team that will earn the right to draft first next April with another loss this week. When these two teams met earlier in the season, Smith was backing up Shaun Hill, who threw for 152 yards and 2 TDs against them. Hill could've done more but the 49ers didn't need him to having won the game 35-0. Smith should be in similar position this week. Backed by a solid running and Frank Gore, Smith may not need to throw more than 25 times, but since the Rams have not intercepted a pass since Week 10, he should be a safe play. Smith isn't likely to throw for 250+ yards, but look for around 200 yards with a pair of TDs likely.
If you're desperate (worth a look in deeper leagues)
Matt Moore - CAR - It's interesting how much things can change in a month or less in the NFL. Earlier this season, the Saints defense was among the worst matchups for opposing QBs. They have forced numerous interceptions and capitalized on them by returning several of them for TDs. The Panthers passing game became unwatchable as they suffered through the prolonged downturn of Jake Delhomme that started in last year's disappointing playoff loss. In the last month or so, things have turned around on both fronts. The Saints were beset by injury after injury in their secondary and teams have suddenly found a lot of success against them. Five straight QBs have thrown for 235+ yards against them. The other side of that coin still holds true though -- the Saints continue to be ball hawks and they have intercepted 6 passes in their last five games while allowing 5 TD passes. As for Moore, he will be without Steve Smith this week, but in four starts he has gone 3-1 with 7 TDs against 1 INT while averaging just over 200 yards per game. This is a tricky spot for Moore. Without Smith, he could be vulnerable to an aggressive Saints defense that may have no reason to respect the Panthers vertical passing game, and instead, focus their efforts on containing the Panthers prolific ground attack. Moore is a reach by all accounts, but he's a solid player to use in 2-QB leagues and the Panthers have not packed it in either.
Josh Freeman - TB - Like the Panthers, the Bucs continue to play hard despite having no shot at the playoffs and little else to play for but pride, a new contract, or a spot on a roster next year. The Bucs have to be happy with what they've seen out of their talented rookie QB, too. Freeman has been awful at times, but he has also shown good leadership, a huge arm and a penchant for extending and making big plays when there seems to be nothing there. The Falcons have been a good matchup all year for opposing QBs, too. In Week 12, Freeman threw for 250 yards, 2 TDs and no INTS in Atlanta while also adding 14 yards rushing. Look for similar results, if not slightly better, at home this week. Freeman has thrown for 200+ yards in four of his last six games. Where he should throw for plenty of yards, don't expect more than 2 TDs. He has only 4 TDs compared to 11 INTs in those last six games.
Running Back
Prime Cut (Great matchup, strong sleeper)Jonathan Stewart - CAR - Technically, Stewart is anything but a sleeper after trouncing the Giants for over 200 rushing yards last week, but his productivity and touches depends largely on the health and availability of DeAngelo Williams, too. If Williams misses this week, then Stewart looms large against a Saints run defense that has given up plenty of production in the second half of the season after DT Sedrick Ellis injured his knee and missed several games. DeAngelo Williams ran for 149 yards and two scores in their previous meeting this year while Stewart was seemingly bottled up with 24 yards on 13 carries in that game. Williams may very well return this week. In that scenario, Stewart goes back to being a situational RB2/flex option with upside. If Williams sits, Stewart is a top shelf RB1 just as he has been in past two weeks against top 10 run defenses (which the Saints are not).
Fred Jackson - BUF - Jackson has proven to be a solid RB2/situational back for fantasy owners this year. He would've been a low end RB1 if not for the return of Marshawn Lynch and splitting carries with him. This week, he figures to get the majority of touches in the Bills backfield against a Colts defense that has nothing to play for. The Colts will be resting key starters on both sides of the ball and essentially playing not to get hurt. Jackson's baseline with Lynch in the mix has been around 50 yards. The main problem that Buffalo has had this year is getting into the end zone. Jackson seems like a safe pick for 15 carries and 2-to-5 catches this week against the Colts. With that many touches, Jackson should be in the 80 to 100 yard range and if he can get into the end zone consider it a bonus. In their last six games, the Colts have allowed 126 rushing yards, 43 receiving yards and almost a TD per game to opposing RBs.
Cadillac Williams - TB - Williams has defied all odds this year by winning back the starting job and then keeping it all year when everyone and their brother fully expected him to get hurt again. It just didn't happen. Williams didn't have a ton of success against the Falcons in their previous meeting this year. He combined for 38 yards but he did catch a TD pass to pad his stats. The Falcons have allowed more to opponents through the air than on the ground, too. Only one RB has topped 100 yards against them. That said, the Bucs are playing tough down the stretch under head coach Raheem Morris and Williams is running as well as at any point during the season. He doesn't have the upside that other backs have due to Derrick Ward's presence, but he is a good bet to carry the ball 15+ times and catch a couple passes. Look for something like 60 to 100 total yards with a potential score. Williams has 80+ yards or a TD in four of his last five games, so he's at least a solid reach as a low end RB2/flex option again this week.
Worth a Gamble (Good matchup, solid sleeper)
Lex Hilliard - MIA - Ricky Williams may not play this week after injuring this shoulder in last week's game. Hilliard finished that game in Williams' place and scored twice. The Steelers defense hasn't been the same in the last month of the season, but they remain tougher against the run than they are against the pass. If Williams doesn't play, Hilliard should be a decent play regardless. Look at him as a low RB2 with some upside given how well the Dolphins have been able to run the ball against all teams this year and that Hilliard can be utilized as a receiver as well.
Jason Snelling - ATL - Snelling should continue to be the Falcons featured back against the Bucs to close out the season. Both teams are playing for next year, although the Bucs are also apparently playing for Head Coach Raheem Morris' job. Snelling has been reasonably productive given his number of touches. He consistently gets more touches than Jerious Norwood and he's more likely to get into the end zone, too. In the six games that Michael Turner has missed, Snelling has produced between 52 and 102 yards in every game with 3 TDs. He's a solid RB2/flex option and because he can catch the ball, he is just as good an option for PPR leagues as he is in TD-heavy leagues.
Two other players to keep an eye on this week are Arian Foster (vs NE) and Maurice Morris (vs Chi). Foster nearly found himself banished to the bench like Steve Slaton, Ryan Moats and Chris Brown before him for fumbling the football. Gary Kubiak didn't do it though and he went back to Foster last week against the Dolphins. Foster responded with 97 yards and a TD on 19 carries. More telling, Ryan Moats seemed to be more of a clear-cut change-of-pace or third down option as Foster was the primary back. Against the Patriots, Foster may have a tougher time than last week, but he's still a decent flex/RB2 option. Morris will dominate the touches in the Lions backfield again this week against the Bears. He has 22 touches in each of the last two games since Kevin Smith suffered a season-ending knee injury. Morris has produced 161 yards and a TD against the Cardinals, and 56 yards last week against the 49ers. The Bears are neither a good nor bad matchup, so Morris looks like a solid RB2 option who should produce somewhere around 75 to 100 yards.
Solid Reach (backup / situational player with upside)
Willis McGahee - BAL - The Ravens will be playing for a playoff spot this week. They will be doing so against a Raiders team that has allowed the 6th most fantasy points to opposing RBs this year. The Ravens offense is playing well right now and Joe Flacco has rebounded to give them balance to keep teams honest against the run. Ray Rice will get his share of touches and yards, but McGahee continues to moonlight as the Ravens 1b option in the red zone. He is a threat to score in every game. In a game where the Ravens could get up early, McGahee is a threat to score more than once and possibly get 5 to 10 carries and finish off the Raiders in the second half.
Shonn Greene - NYJ - The Jets went to a run-heavy offensive approach last week featuring Green and Thomas Jones and to take pressure off Mark Sanchez. Greene will probably get a healthy amount of touches again this week against a Bengals defense that will be without standout rookie LB Ray Maualuga. They also have less to play for than the Jets do. Greene is a decent reach as a flex option or even a low RB2 given the circumstances. He is not the safest of plays, but he should get enough touches to produce around 50 yards or more and possibly find the end zone.
Larry Johnson - CIN - The Bengals are expected to rest Cedric Benson this week against the Jets, so keep an eye on Johnson as his primary replacement, and someone who is capable of carrying 20+ times as the Bengals will probably close out the season with a conservative offense, playing not to get hurt and avoiding risky pass plays since Darrelle Revis has been so tough to throw against this year. The Jets are playing for the playoffs, so it's a dangerous play either way with Johnson. The Bengals won't be playing or approaching this game with the same sense of urgency that Rex Ryan's will be. Either way, Johnson could benefit and he's someone to consider if you need a low RB2, flex option for this final week of the season.
If you're desperate (worth a look in deeper leagues)
Donald Brown, Chad Simpson and/or Mike Hart - IND - The Colts running game is a hard one to read at this point of the season as they begin focusing on the playoffs and winning a Super Bowl. They will treat this game as they would the last exhibition game of the preseason in some ways. They may or may not give a big workload to backup Donald Brown, who could play a pivotal role in the playoffs to spell Joseph Addai or even play a bigger role if something happens to him. That takes us to Chad Simpson and presumably Mike Hart. If I were a betting man, I'd say these two backs shoulder the Colts running game this week and split carries about evenly in a game where the Colts will probably feature a heavier run-to-pass ratio than with Peyton Manning behind center. Against a Bills defense that is much easier to run against, it makes a lot of sense. If you just want to roll the dice on someone who could hit a home run, go with Simpson. He has been ahead of Hart all year on the depth chart and he has produced in games when he was given an opportunity. He looks like a player who could make an impact on a team that gives him a chance. Hart also runs with power and determination. If either of these guys get 10 to 15 carries (or more), they could produce 60 to 100 yards with a potential TD.
Quinton Ganther - WAS - Ganther was shut down on Sunday night by a dominant Cowboys defense that has come to life in the second half of the season. Ganther should find a few more running lanes against the Chargers, but you have to keep in mind that Ganther is just not that talented as far as NFL running backs go. There is a reason why he was strictly a special teams player prior to all of the injuries that allowed him to bubble up to the top of the Redskins depth chart for the last month of the season.
Lynell Hamilton - NO - The Saints may rest Pierre Thomas given his injured ribs and Lynell Hamilton has proven to be an effective, physical runner whenever he was given the opportunity to play this year. All three of the Saints primary backs have been dinged up at various points of the season. The coaching staff might opt to give Mike Bell and Reggie Bush a lighter work load as well, and load up on Hamilton as they look forward to the playoffs and try to get everyone as healthy as possible for a run at a Super Bowl.
Wide Receiver
Prime Cut (Great matchup, strong sleeper)In the final week of the season, let’s focus on some young players with great upside to produce this week and position themselves for even bigger roles in 2010 with their respective teams.
Devin Aromashodu - CHI - Aromashodu and Jay Cutler got hot at the right time for fantasy football owners, although for Aromashodu, most owners probably weren't in a position to take advantage of his big game on Monday Night. Or, more succinctly, they didn't want to gamble on him until they watched him do something in a big game. Well, he has done that now and the Bears will give him every opportunity to do it again next week against a bad Lions pass defense. Aromashodu gives Cutler and the Bears vertical passing game great size to go with his deep speed. He's like a poor man's Miles Austin, but as opportunities go, he could follow in the same path as Austin and dynasty owners will be paying close attention to see if he can seize the opportunity in front of him this week.
Mike Wallace - PIT - Hines Ward aggravated his hamstring in last week's win over the Ravens. He is expected to either miss this week's game against Miami, or knowing Ward's mentality, he will probably try to play, but he will obviously be limited. Either way, Wallace should continue to play a larger role than a third receiver typically does on most teams. Wallace has been targeted frequently in crucial situations throughout the season. The Dolphins secondary is talented, but they do allow plenty of production to opposing receivers for fantasy purposes. Last week, Jacoby Jones and Andre Johnson caught TDs against them. Justin Gage caught two in the previous week against them. Torry Holt even had a 63 yard catch against them. Needless to say, this talented rookie can get open underneath or use his elite speed to stretch the field and make plays. More importantly, Ben Roethlisberger trusts him and targets him and that will continue with Ward banged up. In his last two games, Wallace had 5 catches for 162 yards and 2 TDs. He is exactly the type of player that's worth reaching for because of his penchant for big plays.
Hakeem Nicks - NYG - Nicks and Mario Manningham have effectively cancelled out much of each other's fantasy upside this season as the two have both been productive at times while rotating into the Giants starting lineup opposite Steve Smith. Nicks has been limited by a hamstring pull suffered a couple of weeks ago, but he has played through it and he has still been somewhat productive. Last week, he caught 6 balls for 44 yards. He has been plagued by some ugly drops this year, but like Braylon Edwards, he has immense upside as a big, physical receiver who can do significant damage after the catch and along the sidelines on deep routes. The Vikings have struggled against the pass defensively. Last week, Jay Cutler tossed four TD passes and Devin Aromashodu hung 150 yards and a game-winning TD on them. Nicks has that kind of potential, but he probably won't demonstrate it on a regular basis until the job is his and his alone. Until then, he still has plenty of upside and he is still a reasonable bet to score in just about any game.
Worth a Gamble (Good matchup, solid sleeper)
Antonio Bryant - TB - Antonio Bryant caught 3 balls for 91 yards and a TD in Week 12 against the Falcons when these two teams played the first time this year. Not much has changed since then. The Falcons pass defense remains shaky at best, while the Bucs passing game has been dangerous at times, but as inconsistent as most would expect a team with a rookie quarterback to be. Bryant and Kellen Winslow dominate the targets for the Bucs passing attack, and rightfully so. They are the most talented receivers on the team. Bryant has not been consistent since returning from the knee injury that sidelined and limited his effectiveness for much of the season. He is still a solid WR3/WR4 option with the talent to get it done if things click. We expect Bryant to finish the season well against a vulnerable Falcons secondary even if they played well last week against the Bills. Josh Freeman is much better than Brian Brohm.
Muhsin Muhammad - CAR - The old veteran probably has one more big game left in him. Muhammad is probably playing in his final Panthers game, although we wouldn't rule out his return either. Muhammad doesn't have the speed he once had, but he is still a big, physical, capable possession receiver that is also a decent option in the red zone for Matt Moore. The Saints secondary is getting healthy again, but they probably won't play everyone in their final game, or at least not for the whole game. Muhammad could easily take advantage of this situation as Moore hopes to boost his chances of competing for the starting job in 2010 against Jake Delhomme. Knowing that John Fox may return, gives both players more fuel to their fire to finish the season strong. Muhammad is a reach, but he should produce WR3/WR4 numbers.
T.J. Houshmandzadeh - SEA - Houshmandzadeh has the best statistical matchup possible this week against the Titans, but it's hard to get fired up for him, Matt Hasselbeck or any of the other Seahawks receivers. Earlier in the year the Seahawks scheduled seemed to be tailor made for fantasy owners, but it has not played out that way at all. Matt Hasselbeck has not been able to take advantage and he now has 8 INTs in his last two games. Houshmandzadeh has fallen to 34th amongst receivers in fantasy points scored this year, but he hasn't fallen off the radar completely thanks to his nondescript 4 to 5 catches each week. Looks like EA Sports had their rating a little too high, perhaps. At any rate, the Titans remains susceptible but with no 100-yard receivers or TDs allowed in their last three games, Houshmandzadeh is a roll of the dice for owners this week. Gone are the days of plugging him into the lineup as a high WR2. He is now a fringe starter and looking more and more like a run of the mill possession receiver.
Terrell Owens - BUF - Owens has been an average WR3 this year, at best, but against a Colts team that is mailing it in and looking ahead to the playoffs, Owens might be able to make a big play or two even if Brian Brohm is the starting quarterback. Owens performance in the last two games has not earned him any confidence points, despite facing a pair of defenses that have been generous to opposing receivers. The Bills passing attack has issues to figure out in the offseason. That's obvious. Owens is likely playing his last game as a Bill, and with free agency waiting, a good performance from him is just what Drew Rosenhaus ordered.
Solid Reach (backup / situational player with upside)
Opposite to the section above, let’s take a look at some veteran receivers that have decent matchups, but less upside than the younger players in the previous section. That is not to say that any one of these guys won’t finish the season with a big bang, but there are reasons that make them more of a gamble than those chosen before them.
Mohamed Massaquoi - CLE - Massaquoi will probably draw coverage from Reshean Mathis, the Jags' best corner, but that alone shouldn't detract you from looking at him as a potential flex/WR4 option this week. Massaqoui is about the only receiver with a pulse left on the roster. Brian Robiskie got hurt last week and Josh Cribbs is more of a running back than a receiver these days, which leaves Stuckey and undrafted free agent Jake Allen as the only other targets on the roster barring some other roster move. The Jags have been a favorable matchup throughout the year for opposing WRs having allowed the most fantasy points. Wes Welker, Randy Moss, Reggie Wayne and Greg Camarillo have all come up with big games against them in the past few weeks. The problem is that the Browns have Derek Anderson at quarterback, not Brady, Manning or even Chad Henne. That severely limits his upside. As such, he still has a chance to score for the second week in a row. If he can produce 3-61-1 against the Raiders, he's worth a look against the Jags.
Early Doucet - ARI - The Cardinals may opt to rest some of their starting players this week depending on how things shake out in the NFC playoff picture before these two teams take the field. If that happens, keep an eye on Doucet. He has emerged in his second season as a player who could move into a starting role if they decide to trade Anquan Boldin once-and-for-all during the offseason. Doucet caught a TD last week and finished with 43 yards and two catches. If Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin get some rest this week, Doucet is the player that might benefit the most, particularly if Breaston is also rested as well as Kurt Warner. Matt Leinart tends to throw more conservative passes which would favor a receiver like Doucet.
Jabar Gaffney - DEN - With Eddie Royal sidelined last week, Gaffney took full advantage by catching a pair of touchdowns. He should be used in the same capacity this week against the Chiefs and their pair of young, but capable corners. With Brandon Marshall demanding every defense's attention, Gaffney could once again take advantage of single coverage and the trust of Kyle Orton to put up some decent fantasy points.
If you're desperate (worth a look in deeper leagues)
Brian Hartline, Davone Bess, Ted Ginn or Greg Camarillo - MIA - The Steelers secondary could use Troy Polamalu in a bad way. In their last six games, they've allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing WRs -- 10 receptions for 185 yards and 1 TD per game. They're being torched deep on a regular basis. Chad Henne comes into this game playing well and producing solid stats over the past few games. The problem is predicting which of the Dolphins receivers will be on the receiving end of all those yards each week. Brian Hartline, Davone Bess, Ted Ginn and Greg Camarillo have all lead the team in receptions and/or yards in one of their last four games. That makes all four of them a crap shoot this week. It's a plus matchup and, most likely, one or even two of them will carry fantasy value this week, but if you guess wrong, it could hurt.
Kenny Britt, Nate Washington or Justin Gage - TEN - Gage caught a pair of TDs two weeks ago and he was targeted downfield last week by Vince Young, but the two couldn't convert. Gage is back in the rotation, but he has lost his starting gig to talented rookie Kenny Britt. One is ebbing; the other is flowing in terms of fantasy value. That being said, Gage continues to get quality targets, which limits Britt's upside while keeping Gage semi-relevant to fantasy owners. All three of the Titans receivers are worth a look this week, but they're all reaches. It's hard to trust any of them to perform consistently, but the Seahawks are a nice matchup and they've allowed the fourth most fantasy points to WRs this year. Using the Bucs, 49ers and Rams receivers as comps, it seems reasonable to project one of these three for about 60 yards and a TD, another for 50 to 60 yards and the other somewhere south of that. For my money, I'd bet on Britt first, Washington second and Gage last.
Kenneth Moore - CAR - Steve Smith is out with a broken arm, so look for Moore to step into the Panthers lineup opposite Muhsin Muhammad for this week's tilt with the Saints. Muhammad is the best bet, obviously, but Moore has speed and he could be used similarly to how they utilized Steve Smith on screens and fly routes to stretch the defense. He's a huge reach, but it's hard to not like the way the Panthers are playing hard right now. QB Matt Moore has a lot to do with that, and besides, we want to hear the game announcer make the Moore to Moore for a TD call anyway.
Other receivers who might benefit from extra playing time this week are Hank Baskett of the Colts, Marty Booker of the Falcons, Maurice Stovall of the Bucs, Jacoby Jones of the Texans, Malcolm Kelly of the Redskins, Deion Branch of the Seahawks and Louis Murphy of the Raiders.
Tight End
Prime Cut (Great matchup, strong sleeper)Visanthe Shiancoe - MIN - Those of you who own Shiancoe probably consider him to be an excellent backup to the TE that you drafted to be your starter. If that was Dustin Keller, John Carlson or Owen Daniels, then you probably covered yourself well. For the second year in a row, Shiancoe is among the top 6 to 8 fantasy tight ends, yet he doesn't get that level of recognition and he probably won't be drafted as such when next summer rolls around either. Yet here he is with 17 TDs over the last two seasons. He has more catches, TDs and fantasy points in 2009, but his rank among fantasy TEs has fallen from 5th to 7th. The Vikings have plenty to play for this week, so he should be good for a full, competitive game (on the Vikings side at least) against a Giants defense that has not been able to cover tight ends at all this year. They've allowed more fantasy points to TEs than any other defense. In eight straight games, an opposing TE has caught a TD or produced 50+ yards. Shiancoe hasn't produced 50 yards since Week 12, but he has caught two TDs in that span. He's a strong TE1 start to finish the season in a week when other top flight tight ends may or may not be playing.
Greg Olsen - CHI - The Bears finish the season in Detroit against the Lions. Enough said. When these two teams played earlier in the year, Olsen caught one pass, but it was for a 1-yard TD. Kellen Davis caught two passes for 20 yards, including a TD. Needless to say, Olsen remains a strong red zone option against a defense that has not been able to cover well all season. They've allowed the third most points to tight ends this year (4-45-0.7 per game). Ride Olsen to the finish if you own him. He should be a solid TE1 option this week.
Worth a Gamble (Good matchup, solid sleeper)
Kevin Boss - NYG - Boss has been on a roll lately with 7-70-1, 3-57-0 and 5-49-0 in his last three games. With one week left, Boss is the 14th ranked fantasy tight end this season. Against a Vikings defense that has been a solid matchup all year long for opposing tight ends. Last week, the Bears Greg Olson (3-47-1) and Desmond Clark (5-39-1) each caught TDs against them in their thrilling Monday Night OT win. Eli Manning looks like a solid option again this week, so look for he and Boss to continue putting up good numbers down the stretch enabling them both to finish among the top 12 at their positions (fantasy points year to date).
David Thomas - NO - The Panthers aren't necessarily a great matchup for tight ends, though they have allowed an average of 4 catches, 45 yards and 0.2 TDs per game. Jeremy Shockey has been limited with a turf toe injury during the season half of the season and the coaches will probably rest him for the playoffs, enabling Thomas to continue producing at a healthy clip. Thomas now has 35 catches on the season for 356 yards and a TD. He caught 5 balls for 25 yards last week and 8 for 77 yards the previous week -- all with Shockey on the sidelines. He should continue to do the same thing this week, even if Drew Brees leaves the game early.
Bo Scaife - TEN - The Titans tight ends were shut out last week against the Chargers. Vince Young had his worst performance of the season and all of the receivers and tight ends on the roster were impacted as well. Scaife should bounce back this week though. The Seahawks don't cover anyone particularly well and the Titans will probably keep things simple against them. Run Chris Johnson and get him his 2,000 yards (and perhaps the single season rushing record) and utilize a conservative passing attack. Scaife has been a consistent 4 to 5 catch guy since Young reclaimed the starting job. Since Week 10, Seattle has allowed the third most fantasy points to opposing TEs -- 5 catches, 76 yards and 0.3 TDs per game.
Solid Reach (backup / situational player with upside)
Zach Miller - JAX - Marcedes Lewis left last week's game with a concussion and he probably won't play this week. His injury is a convenient excuse for the team to see what their raw, but talented rookie can do. Miller has plenty of speed and athleticism. He has made some nice catches this year, too, but his playing time has been limited playing behind Lewis and also sharing reps with Ernest Wilford. Miller goes against a Browns defense that has allowed the second most fantasy points to TEs since Week 10. Opposing TEs are averaging 7 catches, 88 yards and 0.5 TDs per game in that stretch. The other (other) Zach Miller caught 9 balls for 110 yards against them last week. Brad Cottam carved them up for 4 catches and 62 yards. Look for Miller to flash some of his potential in the final game, enough to grab the attention of dynasty owners that missed Miller on their fantasy radar the first time around. If you can still do so, pick him up and stash him on your roster for next year. He could develop into something just like Brent Celek did with the Eagles.
Tony Scheffler - DEN - The Chiefs secondary has played reasonably well of late, but their safeties are slow on one hand or inexperienced or lacking in talent on the other. When these two teams played in Week 13, Daniel Graham caught a TD among his two catches for 20 yards; Scheffler caught one ball for 19 yards. Scheffler is a major reach considering that he hasn't caught more than two balls in a game since Week 12, and only twice in the last nine games. There are an awful lot of shaky options at this point in the season with some teams resting players, and so on. Scheffler should play and he's going against a Chiefs team that has nothing left by jockeying for a high draft pick next April.
If you're desperate (worth a look in deeper leagues)
Will Heller - DET - If it has come to the point in the season where one might consider starting the backup tight end of the Detroit Lions, then only one other thought comes to mind: Ouch. In all seriousness though, nobody else among the Lions receivers is getting it done besides Calvin Johnson. Bryant Johnson has proven once and for all to be a bust. Dennis Northcutt's career is winding down. Rookie Derrick Williams hasn't developed as hoped either. Brandon Pettigrew just had surgery on his knee to repair a torn ACL. That leaves Heller, and just about nothing else. To be fair, when Pettigrew was starting earlier in the year, Heller caught 3 balls for 53 yards and a TD against the Bears while Pettigrew had 4-64-0. Last week, Visanthe Shiancoe caught four balls for 40 yards and a TD against them. Todd Heap had 5-56-2 the prior week an Jermichael Finley 5-70-0 the week before that. Heller is a desperate option, for sure, but he should catch at least two or three balls and he is a decent red zone option since the Bears will be keying on Calvin and the run, certainly not Heller.
Evan Moore - CLE - The Jags and Browns have nothing to play for as far as the playoffs go, but the Browns will be using this game to help Mike Holmgren evaluate players for next season. Jerome Harrison is one who might benefit the most, while Evan Moore is in a similar position. The Jags have allowed 3 TDs in their last two games to opposing tight ends. Since Week 10, they've allowed the fourth most fantasy points to TEs, or 4-54-0.7 per game. On the flipside, Moore emerged four weeks ago out of nowhere to catch 6 balls for 80 yards against the Chargers. He has just 4 catches in the three games since, but the team has talked about potentially developing into a bigger role next year. When games are played with nothing really at stake, goofy things tend to happen and Moore could be one of those Week 17 guys that might surprise.















