Roundtable - August Edition
Posted 8/31 by Staff, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
Welcome to the second offseason edition of the 2009 Footballguys Roundtable. Feel free to eavesdrop as various staff members share their views on a range of topics in discussion format. This week, they touch on the following:
- Browns RBs
- Bucs RBs
- Dolphins WRs
- Draft Strategy - ADP?
- Risers and Fallers
Browns RBs
Will Jamal Lewis remain the starter all year, or will Jerome Harrison or James Davis take over at some point? Or will this be a three-headed mess?
JASON WOOD: Not to pat myself on the back, but I've been all over James Davis from jump street, having him in a complete time share with Lewis for months now. I'm frankly a little disappointed it's becoming such a well known viewpoint, because I was having an easy time taking Davis with my last round pick and stashing him away. I'm seeing him go in the mid rounds now. Some may argue that Jerome Harrison is the backup, but I'm not buying it. Davis has all the tools to thrive in the Browns running attack; he's a younger Jamal Lewis. Lewis has done nothing to lose his job, but I wouldn't be at all surprised, either through injury or ability, to see Davis as the lead back at some point in 2009. I'm down on Harrison obviously. I just don't see him as a credible threat as anything more than a 3rd down, change of pace guy.
JEFF HASELEY: I agree with Jason in that Davis is the runner the Browns will turn to in the event of an injury to Jamal Lewis. Davis had a 4.43 forty time at his pro day after laying a 4.60 egg at the combine, which is what a lot of people remember. He had 47 career TDs at Clemson. He's definitely capable of moving the ball and also punching it in. I would not be surprised at all to see Davis eventually take over the primary RB role for Cleveland this year and it could happen without any injury to Jamal Lewis.
WILL GRANT: People are wary of Davis because he was not a high draft pick. If you've been listening to the Audible though, you know that Cecil and Bloom have both been saying that NFL draft position means nothing and you need to really look at the talent level of a player.
Lewis is the entrenched starter in Cleveland this season. But as the season wears on, the Browns are going to start looking at some of their younger talent to see where they fall into the long term direction of the team. This is not a team that will be a Super Bowl contender this year or next. So the staff needs to look at who is going to have the bigger impact on the team two years down the road. Davis has a better chance of being that guy than Harrison because we've seen Harrison and know what he is (and is not) capable of.
Lewis is still going to finish the season as the top RB for the team. But if he goes down to injury, Davis is the guy I'd want as his backup.
MAURILE TREMBLAY: I think the James Davis love has gotten to the point where he may be currently overhyped. Yes, he may be the primary backup to Jamal Lewis, but that still makes him a backup. Jamal Lewis will not be relegated to the bench this season. He's the starter and that wont change this season unless he is injured. And even if Lewis is injured and Davis becomes the Browns' featured runner, we're still talking about the Browns. It may be difficult for anyone in that offense to put up studly fantasy numbers.
Bucs RBs
How will the workload be distributed among Derrick Ward, Earnest Graham, and Cadillac Williams?
COLIN DOWLING: Tough situation to decipher. All three have talent and do different things well. I think that Williams is the most talented of the group. But he's not all that reliable in terms of health. If I had to place money on which one is going to have the best numbers by season's end, I'd pick Ward. Even as a situational guy off of the bench, Ward has shown he can do a lot with limited carries. In terms of average draft position though, Williams presents the best value. He could have 600 yards and 5 or 6 TDs easy - which would be a heck of a lot better then a lot of guys being drafted in the top 12 rounds.
JASON WOOD: The coaches have thrown out a "2-2-1" philosophy arguing that Cadillac and Ward would each get 2/5ths of the touches and Earnest would get the rest. That's SHOCKING considering most of us thought Williams would start the season on the PUP at best or be cut at worst. If they follow through on this, Graham, even at his moderate ADP, is a wasted pick while Cadillac is a stone cold highway robbery steal. It's so hard for me to believe Cadillac Williams can bounce back and STAY back, but we can't completely discount it. What's interesting is the one constant in all this is Derrick Ward. We all thought he would have a big role, some may have argued he would be 40% of the touches while others argued 60%, but no one thought he would be THE guy and his projections/ADP have always assume a time share. And now with Williams back, it's notable the coaches haven't talked down Ward's role, but instead have signaled Graham to be superfluous. So for me, that gives me comfort in drafting Ward, particularly in PPR leagues, at his current ADP. It also argues, IMHO, that if Cadillac gets hurt again, Ward will clearly be the main guy and Graham will spell him, not the other way around.
MAURILE TREMBLAY: In the Bucs' most recent preseason game, I thought Williams looked better than Ward. It was his first live action in quite a while, but Williams hit the hole decisively and looked surprisingly quick. He was a top five NFL draft pick, so we know the talent is there. The question is his health, but he looked fine to me. I think all three of those RBs are too talented to keep on the bench, though, so we're probably looking at a three-way rotation that will keep any of these backs from having great fantasy value.
Dolphins WRs
Will this be a breakout year for Ted Ginn, Jr.? What do you make of the other Dolphin WRs this season?
JEFF HASELEY: I don't think Ted Ginn is going to rise to a higher level this year. He may play with more consistency, but I don't see him being an every week fantasy starter.
MAURILE TREMBLAY: Ginn is going to be the top WR in Miami this season by default. But I just don't see him becoming a consistent performer from week to week. He's got enough big-play ability to have some huge games here and there, but I'm not sure he'll ever be a enough of a complete WR (as opposed to just a speed guy) to catch 80+ passes in a season.
The guy on the Dolphins who I think does have that ability is Greg Camarillo, but he's still slowed by last year's knee injury and has slid down the depth chart behind Brian Hartline and Devon Bess. Either one of those guys could emerge, but they're really just late-round flyers you can gamble on if you run out of any other ideas during your draft.
JEFF HASELEY: I like what I have seen from Hartline so far, but the big question is - can any Miami WR be a fantasy standout? Who was the last Miami WR with any real fantasy value? Wes Welker, O.J. McDuffie? They're not exactly a haven for fantasy WR studs. I'm sticking with my historical instincts here that Miami won't have a big time WR threat this year.
JASON WOOD: Odds are someone is going to emerge, but on draft day unless you have huge rosters it's hard to capitalize on the uncertainty. As Maurile mentioned, Camarillo was the trendy "shark" pick in the early preseason as a guy who could catch 70+ balls because someone had to, but now that appears to have been premature. Just a few weeks ago we were hearing that rookie Patrick Turner was making a push, and now we hear that he's fallen off and Brian Hartline, another rookie, is pushing for a big role. Yet, our resident draft experts like Sigmund and Cecil don't view Hartline or Turner as future NFL stars. Ginn is, by default, the guy I see catching the most passes but as his ADP he just doesn't interest me either.
I'm not finding myself drafting any of these guys in drafts so far, and don't see that changing.
Draft Strategy - ADP?
During your draft, how much attention do you pay to a player's average draft position? Let's say that Eddie Royal is typically going in the late fifth or early sixth round of most drafts, but you think he's worth a mid-third. At what point do you say "Forget ADP, I'm not going to risk losing him by waiting another round." Do you draft him whenever he's your top-ranked player, or do you wait a round or two and try to get a better bargain?
COLIN DOWLING: There is so much to consider on draft day that, frankly, ADP isn't really high on my list. I feel like I've been doing this long enough to have instincts to say, "This guy has no business being available this late....I'm taking him." Similarly, I have my own projections and while I always like to see a guy I have pegged as being a top performer slide, I'm not going risk losing a player I have rated highly just because his ADP may dictate that he'll slide. If you determine a player can be key to your team winning, take him. David Dodds, Clayton Gray, and Mark Wimer are particularly good at this: they take players they believe in. I'm sure they consider ADP but not at the expense of losing the coveted player. And as a result, they may look a bit reckless on draft day but usually end up with really good teams.
MATT WALDMAN: ADP is a consensus opinion, and in some cases a mob mentality. I only use ADP when I am considering pulling the trigger on specific players that I have rated higher or lower than the consensus. For instance, I was among the first FBGs this year to value Ray Rice as a starter. I used ADP in this instance to gauge where he has been going and determine the high end of his ADP range so I can figure out where I pick him. I don't mind selecting a player like Rice 1-3 rounds higher than his ADP. It just depends on what I know about my competition, the trend with that player's value, and if I can still land quality players if I decide to select him higher than his average draft position. Drafting for value is the safe, fundamental way of picking a fantasy team. But sometimes you have to make sure you don't miss out because you refused to pay for quality.
JASON WOOD: I think taking ADP into account is important. The very definition of having a good draft is maximizing value, and you can only do that if you land players who will outperform their draft slots. It may be different for someone who just does a cursory ranking or goes with their gut, but as someone who does my own projections for months before most of my drafts, I know what I think about most players by the time draft day arrives. I also know how far apart my views on a player are from consensus, and make notes on that.
If, for example, I think Chad Ochocinco is going to be a Top 10 WR but his ADP puts him in the 5th round at WR16, why on Earth should I use a 3rd round pick on him? There are very few players, if any, that I feel I HAVE to have. There are values at every turn, and I stay flexible. I love taking Ochocinco a round earlier than ADP to lock him up, but I would feel foolish to take him two or three rounds early and possibly miss out on someone in the 3rd round I may not think has as much upside versus consensus, but do think will perform in line with consensus.
Does your answer change if you are drafting with mainly guppies versus mainly sharks?
JASON WOOD: The type of draft and quality of opponents certainly play a role in my use of ADP. In the FESL league (our staff league for those who don't know), we all have hard and fast opinions and also know each other's preferences. So in FESL I'm far more likely just to grab guys I want and not worry so much if I could've waited a round or two. If you track the draft results for FESL, or other competitive leagues, they rarely resemble a traditional ADP list. But I also do leagues with college buddies and other friends who are, shall we say, less zealous in their preparation. In those leagues, I use ADP to my advantage and - knock on wood - that often results in taking candy from the proverbial baby. But again, in those drafts I have a good sense that most of the guys are going to rank the players based on the default rankings loaded in our draft software. They're not going to make any glaring mistakes that way, but their predictability allows me to get the guys I want at the best price possible.
WILL GRANT: In the Early Rounds, Jason's approach is the same one that I use. I look for guys that are in the 15-20 range for ADP for their position. If I think they are really a top 10 quality guy, I know that if I want them, I should target them a round or so before their ADP. This guarantees that I'll get a player that I'm targeting and still insures that I won't overpay for him.
Where ADP really becomes a value is in middle to late rounds. When you're in the 10th round and people are starting to take their defenses and kickers, I look at the ADP of my later round guys and start to cleanup on the big-upside type of guys before other people are really looking for them. Then I go defense by committee and wait until much later to take my kicker.
ADP works really well when you're using the draft dominator. Based on the projections and the ADP, you can really know who you can pass on and who you can reach a little bit to get. In a recent draft, I was able to land Santana Moss in a PPR league in the 5th round when his projections put him in the top 20 for WRs. The ADP allowed me to lay off of him for a bit and still land him before others were thinking about it. As you get into the later rounds, you'll see this more and more as the people who sort near the top of your list have ADPs that are well below where you are in the draft. When you see this, you start to gain confidence in your team because you can pick and choose people that will outperform the guys that are being taken now and still get the people that you want.
Risers and Fallers
Between now and the start of the regular season, there will be a few players whose draft positions will change significantly, either for the better or for the worse.
Without trying to predict injuries, which players do you think will rise or fall substantially over the next two weeks?
COLIN DOWLING: If not for the competition in the Bucs backfield, Carnell Williams would rise quite a bit. Outside of that, I think that people will start going bonkers for Joe Flacco, Leon Washington, and (believe it or not) Michael Vick. Flacco has shown he can stand up tall in the pocket and has looked pretty solid passing the ball down the field; he is starting to remind me of Ben Roethlisberger a bit. Washington has been the Jets most explosive player for some time and new coach Rex Ryan appears to be intent on getting him the ball in ways Eric Mangini wouldn't. And with regard to Vick, Donovan McNabb's injury history is always in the minds of savvy fantasy owners and Vick's potential is simply too good to ignore. I imagine that two weeks from now he'll have gone from being undrafted to being a 12th or 13th round pick.
MATT WALDMAN: I agree with Colin about Cadillac Williams. We're talking about a back with talent arguably equal to that of Ronnie Brown. He has flow under the radar this summer more than any name brand fantasy player because the Bucs have been cautious with him until this week, and the media subsequently wrote him off. After watching him over the weekend, I already added Williams to the tail end of my RB rankings with the expectation that I'll increase that ranking as I decrease Earnest Graham's and Derrick Ward's. The reason has to do with his decisiveness on the shorter runs where there wasn't much there, but he gained 4-6 yards on these plays. The fact he did this against Miami's first-team unit and started the game is a significant development - not necessarily as any indication from the coaches that he'll be the starting RB in September, but because he has demonstrated to the coaching staff that he is ready to contribute. The fact that he performed this well against a first-unit defense was icing on the cake. He will easily go from an RB not even drafted in deep leagues to a hopeful bargain as a No. 4 to No. 5 RB on a fantasy owner's depth chart. It could rise even to No. 3 status if Tampa makes any moves to package one of their RBs with one of their QBs in a deal or they declare Caddy the starter. Considering FOX commentators Joe Buck and Troy Aikman reported that Raheem Morris would make Cadillac their top back if he shows what they are looking for, it's not that far-fetched as it seemed just a few days ago.
Edgerrin James' signing and T.J. Duckett's subsequent release in Seattle is another development that puts James into the late rounds. With Julius Jones' track record, James' potential is strong enough for owners to consider him as one of those rare aged veterans with upside as the season progresses.
JEFF HASELEY: I'm starting to like James Davis in Cleveland, Mike Bell in New Orleans and even Deon Butler in Seattle, who has been doing everything right in trying to earn a starting spot. Chris Wells has not had a chance to really showcase his abilities until this past weekend. He's someone who could see a significant rise in draft value. Leon Washington's value could continue to climb. Kenny Britt is someone who could move up the ranks, especially now that Nate Washington is going to miss some time. Tennessee simply just doesn't have much competition at WR. If we hear any positive reports about Edgerrin James out of Seattle, he could see a significant rise up the draft boards. Josh Morgan is someone who has been very quiet on the draft scene. He could also be someone who deservedly moves up. Speaking of 49ers WRs, Michael Crabtree could rise up the boards if any positive news comes out that he will end his holdout sooner rather than later.
Tony Romo would head up my list of players who could start to slide. I think people might start to shy away from the risk. Roy Williams getting hurt and being injury prone doesn't help his cause. He won't have Terrell Owens this year and we don't know how that will change how productive he'll be.
Also, Brian Westbrook saying he would play but then not playing against the Jaguars in the third preseason game may be a reason to shy away from him in drafts. Then again, it could be a blessing in disguise to have the chance to select him later than normal. He could fall to the end of the 2nd or (gasp) early third if he doesn't show something in the final preseason game.
JASON WOOD: Most teams showcased their first units this past weekend, and the final preseason games are going to be more about teams figuring out their bench depth. But if I had to put my soothsayer hat on and guess what will happen over the next couple weeks, I'd start with the fact that Cadillac Williams will rise while Earnest Graham will fall. Williams been universally undrafted so far, and yet got the start this past weekend. I think if he's healthy we're looking at a Caddy and Ward RBBC with Graham in a reserve role. Who would've seen THAT coming two weeks ago?
In Detroit, I like Aaron Brown to rise at Maurice Morris' expense. People are starting to recognize that the Lions hit a home run at the RB position with Aaron Brown. I think he'll start being drafted as Kevin Smith's handcuff over the very pedestrian (and not guaranteed a roster spot) Maurice Morris
I also see Mark Sanchez and Daunte Culpepper as risers. Not that either are worth owning in all but the deepest of leagues, but every fantasy season we see the same thing. Once a QB is officially named his team's Week One starter, his ADP starts rising a few rounds and at least one or two owners in every league starts seeing them as a "steal" late in drafts
Many fantasy owners overlook the kicker position, which is why Garrett Hartley has been going early in many drafts; but I do think people will eventually catch on and he'll stop being drafted. He's been suspended for four weeks and may not get his job back upon his return. John Carney will handle placekicking duties during Hartley's suspension and could keep that job. He was terrific last year, and now that he's in line to kick for one of the league's best offenses, he's the one people should be drafting instead of Hartley.
I could also see Saints' RB Mike Bell rise at Pierre Thomas' expense. I'm not saying that SHOULD happen, but it's going to. Thomas' MCL is going to keep him out of the remainder of the preseason most likely and Bell has looked good in his stead. Combine that with Sean Payton's comments about having 3 backs worth using, and I think you'll see people shy away from Thomas as their RB2 and look to grab Bell in the mid-to-late rounds. Again, I think this is probably overdone, but I still think it's going to happen.
Brandon Marshall is another player who will slide. Marshall isn't suspended to start the regular season but it's not hard to imagine he could be, and right now he's still going in the WR15-16 range in most drafts.
Finally, Beanie Wells and Jermichael Finley will start to go earlier. In Wells' case, he's slid down draft boards over the past few weeks, but I think he'll inch his way back up near where he was going in June and July. In Finley's case, I think people will start to overpay for him; people will draft him as their TE2 thinking they're getting the next Antonio Gates. I don't think he'll be of much use to fantasy teams this season, however, since Donald Lee is an excellent blocker and will still be the starter.
That was fun and informative. Thanks for sharing your thoughts. Enjoy the rest of the preseason, and we'll meet back here when the games start to count.