Roundtable – Week 1

  Updated 9/9 by FBG Staff, Exclusive for Footballguys.com

Welcome to the first regular season edition of the 2000 Footballguys Roundtable. Feel free to eavesdrop as various staff members share their views on a range of topics in discussion format. This week, they touch on the following:

• LaDainian Tomlinson
• Most improved offense?
• WR discussion
• Most likely bust?
• What we're looking for in week one

LaDainian Tomlinson

There are a surprisingly divergent set of views on LaDainian Tomlinson this season. He was a high first-round pick in some leagues, a late second-rounder in others, and in the balance everywhere in between.

Will he be an elite fantasy running back this season, or will he continue his descent into mere adequacy?

JEFF HASELEY: He'll bounce back. His 1,110 yards rushing last season marked a career low – an aberration rather than a trend, and far from disastrous at any rate. His consistent presence in the passing game (he has had at least 50 catches every season) makes him a reliable starter. His down year in 2008 – well, down for him, anyway – was caused by the toe injury he suffered in week one. If he can struggle all year with a foot injury and still post the numbers he did, he will return to fantasy stardom now that he is healthy.

JEFF PASQUINO: He'll be a top ten RB this season. He was banged up quite a bit last year but is healthy now. He even put in some work during the preseason. Tomlinson will be the Chargers' featured tailback this season; he could easily get 300+ touches and 15-20 scores. Facing Denver, Kansas City and Oakland twice each will help.

JEFF TEFERTILLER: Haseley and Pasquino are too optimistic. Tomlinson a top ten RB this season? I can't rule out the possibility, but the odds are against him. He'll give away too many touches to Darren Sproles, whose play-making ability may exceed Tomlinson's at this stage in their careers.

A lot will depend on how the Chargers use Tomlinson in their soft divisional games. If the Chargers are leading the Raiders by multiple touchdowns in the second half, will they keep riding Tomlinson or rest him? The latter possibility would keep me from drafting him anywhere in the first round.

ANDY HICKS: For the most part, I share Tefertiller's skepticism. Once a running back slides out of the top three at his position, he's unlikely to climb back into it. In the last 20 years, only two have done so – Ahman Green and Barry Sanders. The romantic in me would like to see Tomlinson jump back into the top three, cementing his status as the most magnificent fantasy RB of the last 20 years; but the realist in me would bet against it.

While I don't expect Tomlinson regain his fantasy studliness, however, neither do I expect him to fall off a cliff. Tomlinson should still be productive into his thirties. Not productive enough to live up to a first-round draft position, but he won't disappoint owners who were able to grab him in the second.

ANTHONY BORBELY: Tomlinson will get too many touches not to be a solid every-week fantasy starter. But he's not the same RB he was a few years ago. It was evident watching him in the preseason that he's a step slower than he was. He should still score about 10 TDs because he is great at the goal line, but his big-play ability has been compromised by his loss of explosiveness. In fact, I think he'll be an early-season sell-high candidate because, while he should get a lot of touches at the outset, I think he'll lose progressively more touches to Darren Sproles over the course of the season.

Most Improved offense?

The Atlanta Falcons gained nearly 1,000 more yards in 2008 than they did in 2007 (5,779 vs. 4,813 -– a 20 percent increase).

What team appears poised to make the biggest jump in 2009?

JEFF PASQUINO: Detroit is the first team that comes to mind.

Calvin Johnson is no longer the only Lion worth owning from a fantasy perspective. Matthew Stafford will move the ball with Calvin Johnson, Bryant Johnson, Brandon Pettigrew and even Dennis Northcutt. Detroit had fewer than 3,000 yards passing last season (24th in the league) and I expect Stafford to have several 250+ yard games. The other factor is Kevin Smith, who should help boost the team rushing numbers up from last year's 1,332 yards (30th in the league).

The Lions' improved defense (they added LBs Larry Foote and Julian Peterson along with rookie S Louis Delmas) should help as well. Getting the ball back sooner means getting to run more offensive plays.

ANTHONY BORBELY: I think the Lions will show modest improvement with better receivers and better play from the offensive line. The play-calling last year was brutal. I don't think they will become a juggernaut overnight, but Linehan is solid calling plays, which by itself will help matters quite a bit.

JEFF HASELEY: My pick is Seattle. Matt Hasselbeck is healthy again. The addition of T.J. Houshmandzadeh, the return of Nate Burleson, the emergence of John Carlson and the introduction of rookie Deon Butler will put Seattle back on the map in the NFC West.

Jay Cutler could also lead the Bears to a strong season offensively if a WR emerges from the group. That's a big if, though; and if it doesn't happen, Cutler could get frustrated while the offense sputters. So I view the Chicago passing-game as a bit of a boom-or-bust situation, but the upside is a major turnaround.

ANDY HICKS: I think the Cincinnati Bengals are an obvious choice. They ranked last in combined offensive yardage in 2008 with only 3,926 yards. They get a healthy Carson Palmer back, Chad Ochocinco is motivated again, Laveranues Coles will help replace T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and Chris Henry may start living up to his potential. This is an offense that registered around 5,500 yards of offense in 2006 and 2007, so we know it has the potential to blow past last year's anemic numbers.

ANTHONY BORBELY: Good call, Andy. Carson Palmer and Chad Ochocinco are both elite players and both are back. Coles should be fine filling T.J. Houshmandzadeh's spot and Chris Henry is arguably the most improved WR in the league.

JEFF TEFERTILLER: I like Andy's choice of Cincinnati, but I like Jeff's mention of the Bears even better. The addition of Jay Cutler changes everything. Last year, the Bears had just 3,061 passing yards on the season. Cutler could surpass that figure by week twelve.

WILL GRANT: The other big new out of Chicago is the improved route running of Devin Hester. Last year he was not used beyond basic fly routes and as a decoy on trick plays. Hester spent a ton of time this offseason working on his technique and learning exactly where he is supposed to be on every play. He hasn't seen a lot of action during the pre-season, but if he is really a legitimate threat at WR, he should be a big target for Cutler and the new Bear offense. If one of the younger receivers can step into the spotlight this year, Chicago will easily beat last year's numbers

WR discussion

Which WR has more fantasy value right now in your opinion -– Chaz Schilens or Matt Jones?

JEFF PASQUINO: Neither Schilens nor Jones has much value. Schilens is injured. He aims to return in Week 2, but he may be rushing things. Oakland's passing game is questionable with JaMarcus Russell at the helm, so even when Schilens is 100 percent, he may not see a lot of catchable balls.

Jones is rumored to sign at any moment, but so what? Wherever he goes, he'll have to learn a new playbook and offense before settling in as his team's second or third WR at best. That means his value won't emerge until October, if at all.

I think both have fantasy WR5 upside, which could mean a spot start on a bye week in deep leagues. Schilens has more value in point-per-reception leagues while Jones could get more yardage and TDs – but I would not be holding my breath (or a roster spot) for either.

JEFF TEFERTILLER: I have been on the Matt Jones bandwagon for a while, but Schilens is the easy choice. I think he is easily the best receiver in Oakland. Jones will not even be a starter for several games. Fantasy owners are taking Schilens as a WR4 or WR5 so there is plenty of time to await his return from injury. He will be back before the need to cover for bye weeks.

ANTHONY BORBELY: I'd rather have Schilens. Before he injured his foot, he was very impressive in the preseason opener; and someone has to catch passes in Oakland. With Matt Jones, on the other hand, we just don't know what will happen. I suspect he may sign after the first game, since before then his contract would be guaranteed for the season. I think Jones has more upside, but upside doesn't do any good when you don't have a team.

ANDY HICKS: Chaz Schilens easily. Matt Jones has to be on an NFL roster to be worth evaluating. He could sign and be a 4th stringer or sign and be a starter, depending on if, where, when, and why he joins an NFL team. Schilens will start for sure when he returns. Saying that I'd prefer Schilens to Jones, however, does not mean that I'd want Schilens on my own roster. When we're dealing with the Oakland passing game, I'll wait for the hype to turn to substance before biting.

JEFF HASELEY: If I have to pick right now, I'd go with Chaz Schilens. But that would change if Jones signs with Chicago. The Bears desperately need a WR. Jones would be a starter there (though perhaps not instantly), and catching passes from Jay Cutler would make him easily more valuable than Schilens.

Same question regarding Troy Williamson and Greg Camarillo.

JEFF PASQUINO: Camarillo has much more value than Troy Williamson in about every format but best ball. Williamson will likely remain a starter only until Mike Sims-Walker (aka Mike Walker) gets back to full strength. Camarillo should be ready to take back his WR2 role for the Dolphins, and he has huge upside. Camarillo was a Top 40 WR in non-PPR leagues and Top 32 WR in PPR leagues with 55 catches in just 11 games last season. Chad Pennington likes possession receivers who run short and intermediate routes, so Camarillo is a favorite. I'd much rather grab him late in a draft than Williamson.

JEFF TEFERTILLER: I would choose almost any receiver over Williamson. Camarillo could end up lead the Dolphins in receptions. I can envision him becoming a decent fantasy starter, but not Williamson. Williamson may score a couple long TDs this season, but trying to guess in which weeks they'll occur is hopeless.

ANTHONY BORBELY: I'm not big on either of these two, but I think Camarillo is the easy choice. Williamson has to show something in the regular season to make a believer out of me.

JEFF HASELEY: I'd take Camarillo as well. Soon Mike Walker will return from being dinged up and we'll forget all about Troy Williamson. I really don't think Williamson will be in the mix 4-5 weeks into the season. Greg Camarillo has been a consistent performer with the Dolphins. If he's fully healthy, I don't see why he wouldn't rise to that level again.

ANDY HICKS: I disagree with everybody. Miami can't decide who will start opposite Ted Ginn. Jeff T. mentioned that Camarillo lead the Dolphins in receptions, but so could any of four or five other guys, and Camarillo could be the forgotten man. Meanwhile, in Jacksonville, coach Del Rio tends to be straightforward when it comes to naming his starters, and all indications are that Williamson has earned a starting role with his hard work and dedication in the offseason. Williamson has greater upside potential, and is therefore more worthy of a spot at the bottom of your roster. If he busts, he'll be easily replaceable. I think Camarillo's upside is about 600 yards. Easy choice here.

Is Brandon Marshall currently underrated or overrated? His ADP has steadily fallen over the past few weeks. Is that an overreaction by fantasy owners, or is there a real chance that he'll be a dud this season while Eddie Royal takes over as the Broncos' WR1?

JEFF PASQUINO: Marshall's drop is partly about his own character issues but is also an indictment of the Denver QB situation. Kyle Orton is hurt and has looked terrible so far, while Chris Simms is also ailing. Even if Marshall is ready to go (he should be) the question is whether Orton can get the job done. I believe that Marshall is talented enough to make an average quarterback look far better than he really is (see Jake Delhomme and Steve Smith's relationship in Carolina). Marshall should soon realize that he is stuck in Denver for 2009 and his only ticket out is to straighten up and fly right – and put up big numbers – this coming season. I'd take the gamble on him if I could grab a WR1 talent in the fifth round.

JEFF TEFERTILLER: I would say that Marshall is a steal at his current ADP. If he is drafted as a late WR2 or a WR3, the upside is huge. I do expect Royal to improve, but the poor defense will ensure plenty of pass attempts to keep both happy.

ANTHONY BORBELY: Marshall is the definition of a classic risk-reward player. He can probably be drafted in the 5th round and has the potential to put up WR1 numbers. That's a good gamble. Fantasy football is all about value and sometimes you have to take risks to get it.

ANDY HICKS: Marshall's ADP has been constantly fluctuating, so trying to peg him as underrated or overrated is to aim at a moving target. The story of his volatile relationship with Josh McDaniels probably isn't finished yet, either; so if you want a wild ride, then by all means climb on board and be prepared to waste a pick. Of course the upside is what will suck you in. Set your own price for him based on your evaluation of his risk-reward ratio – then stick to it. If you think he's worth a fifth-round pick and he's still available then, grab him. If someone else grabs him earlier, don't be disappointed – he likely saved you a headache.

Most likely bust?

Of the players typically selected among the top 20 picks or so, who do you think is most likely to frustrate his fantasy owners with poor production?

JEFF PASQUINO: History tells us that about half of the running backs that were Top 12 guys in the previous season do not repeat. A number of RBs being drafted in the first round are candidates to disappoint, but Matt Forte tops my list.

Forte led the Chicago Bears, and led all NFL RBs, with 63 catches in 2008. Along with 316 carries, that gave him almost 380 touches last year, a huge number. Chicago had already planned to lighten his load some with Kevin Jones, but now he's out for the season with another injury. Nonetheless, I see the Bears trying to limit Forte's workload to 320 touches for the year – about 1-2 fewer carries and many fewer receptions than in 2008. Jay Cutler takes over under center and will look to get the ball further downfield to Devin Hester, Earl Bennett and Greg Olsen, leaving fewer check-downs for Forte. Forte has very little upside as a Top 5-6 pick and more downside risk than I like.

ANDY HICKS: I'm most concerned about Steve Slaton. The news that he probably won't be used at the goal line comes as no surprise given his poor conversion rate last year. A healthy Chris Brown is a temporary state of affairs, but while he is able to play Slaton is far less valuable. Slaton was hot last season, but I'm not convinced he can repeat that performance.

ANTHONY BORBELY: I am very nervous about Tomlinson. I was high on him before preseason, and I realize those games don't mean much, but he looked really slow and unexplosive in his limited playing time. He is near the age where players fall off.

I'm also leery of Brandon Jacobs, though not because he lacks talent. Without Plaxico Burress, the Giants don't have anyone to force defenses to respect the deep pass threat. I can see more safeties cheating up this year and Jacobs will not have as much room to run.

JEFF HASELEY: I am worried about Clinton Portis. The news of him not playing on third downs is a cause for concern and the Redskins offense in general scares me. He could still have a good season, but if the carries aren't there, I don't think he'll finish as a Top 10 RB.

What we're looking for in week one

For months we've spent a lot of our time speculating on what might happen; but this week we finally start having a chance to analyze and react to what is happening. What situations are you most interested in seeing play out this week?

JEFF PASQUINO: The biggest question for me is the Cleveland QB starter. I fully expect Brady Quinn to start and have a long leash, but who knows how Mangini will react if Quinn starts slowly?

I'm interested to see how the RBBC situations play out in Arizona (Chris Wells, Tim Hightower), Baltimore (Ray Rice, Willis McGahee, LeRon McClain) and Indianapolis (Joseph Addai, Donald Brown). I expect Hightower, Rice and Addai to be the early winners but I want to see how much work Brown and Wells get out of the gate.

I'll also be watching several of the WRs trying to return from injury. I expect Wes Welker, Anquan Boldin, and Nate Burleson all to be at full strength or nearly full strength right off the bat, but they are all situations that bear monitoring. (If Welker's reps are limited, will it be Julian Edelman who gets some work?) I'm also interested in seeing how the Miami WR rotation goes. We've heard rookie Brian Hartline is competing with Devone Bess and Greg Camarillo for the starting role opposite Ginn. I look for Camarillo to start outside and Bess work out of the slot.

From an IDP standpoint I really want to see what happens with Philly's LB corps. They should be tested early and often Week 1 against Carolina. Joe Mays may start, but my money is on Omar Gaither to play early and often, and Akeem Jordan could lead the team in tackles.

JEFF HASELEY: I'm looking forward to seeing whether some of the impressive defensive performances from the preseason can be carried over into the regular season. Is the Saints defense for real? (They allowed only 38 points in the preseason, second only to the Steelers.) Can head coach Steve Spagnoulo make a difference in St. Louis? (The Rams led the league with a +9 turnover margin during the preseason with 12 takeaways.) Will Seattle continue to be a strong defense? (They had 16 sacks and a +8 turnover margin during the preseason.) Sure, it was only preseason, but I've moved each of those defenses up a bit in my rankings on the possibility that their apparent improvement is for real.

I'll also have my eye on Terrell Owens in Buffalo. Will he become disruptive if QB Trent Edwards fails to get him the ball? Edwards had a poor preseason (46.9 QB rating) and now he'll have to adjust to a new offensive coordinator only one week before the start of the season – against New England in front of a nationwide audience on Monday Night Football. The way that game plays out could be a good indicator of how things will go in Buffalo this year, not only for Owens, but for the whole team. (It will also be interesting to see how Tony Romo and the Cowboys' passing game is affected by Owens' departure.)

In Arizona, Kurt Warner was sloppy in the preseason, and I fear he could be a disappointment this season without offensive coordinator Todd Haley (now head coach of the Chiefs) calling the plays. I also want to see how the touches are split between Tim Hightower and Chris Wells. I see Wells as the more talented runner and think he'll take over as the featured back before long.

Finally, I'm eager to see how rookie QBs Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez perform. They both looked surprisingly good during the preseason. Stafford showed instant chemistry with Calvin Johnson, and isn't shy about going deep. Sanchez averaged 9.4 yards per attempt (37 pass attempts) during the preseason. Both guys will have growing pains, but I think overall they will have surprisingly good rookie seasons.

JEFF TEFERTILLER: In Washington, I'm looking for Jason Campbell to show further improvement with another year under the direction of Jim Zorn. I am looking to see how he goes through his progression of reads. I think he'll do a better job of hitting Santana Moss this year when he's open.

The Broncos offense is intriguing. The injured quarterbacks, the uncertainty at running back, and the whole Brandon Marshall situation make for plenty of good storylines. I suspect the offense will be out of synch early, but rookie RB Knowshon Moreno could be a bright spot.

A number of teams could be in for very rough starts. The Browns, Chiefs, and Raiders were all horrible in the preseason, and all lack certainty at key offensive positions. But the team that really could implode is the Bills. Trent Edwards is inconsistent, and the team starts with a tough matchup against the Patriots. How will Terrell Owens react to poor play from the quarterback? It could get ugly in a hurry.

ANDY HICKS: It will take more than a single game to answer many of the more interesting questions this season. Which rookies will make the biggest splash? (My guesses: Chris Wells and Hakeem Nicks.) Which coaching changes will have the greatest impact? (I expect Kansas City to benefit and Denver to suffer.) Which teams will descend and which will rise? (I think Dallas and Indianapolis are on their way down while San Francisco and Houston are on their way up.)

Those and other situations will take some time to play out, however, despite the common tendency to overreact after week one. I'd encourage fantasy owners not to panic or make drastic roster moves based on a single game.

Nonetheless, there are a number of situations around the league where the division of playing time is currently uncertain. Week one will give us some clues about how the rotations will be set, at least in the early going.

Most teams, with the possible exceptions of Oakland and Miami, have a pretty clearly established WR1, but in many cases it is uncertain who will emerge as the WR2. In some of the contested spots, I like Patrick Crayton over Sam Hurd and Miles Austin in Dallas; Troy Williamson over Mike Sims-Walker in Jacksonville; Mark Bradley over the others in Kansas City; Robert Meachem over Lance Moore in New Orleans; Steve Smith temporarily over Hakeem Nicks with the Giants; Kevin Curtis over Jeremy Maclin in Philly; Josh Morgan and Isaac Bruce both over Michael Crabtree in San Francisco; and Malcolm Kelly over Devin Thomas and Antwaan Randle El in Washington. I'll refrain from trying to guess how things will play out in Cleveland.

At Running Back where there is doubt I expect the dominant fantasy backs for this week to be Chris Wells in Arizona, Ray Rice in Baltimore, Jamal Lewis in Cleveland, Marion Barber in Dallas, Knowshon Moreno in Denver, Joseph Addai in Indy, Laurence Maroney in New England, Thomas Jones with the Jets, Michael Bush in Oakland, Willie Parker in Pittsburgh, Derrick Ward in Tampa, and Chris Johnson in Tennessee.

Regarding individuals and matchups this week, I'm keen on seeing how important the loss of Albert Haynesworth is to Tennessee and whether the Pittsburgh defense is as dominating as it's been over the last two years. I'm predicting the loss of Haynesworth to be very significant and a slight deterioration in Pittsburgh's defense.

The Minnesota-Cleveland game will be fascinating on many levels, but especially for the quarterback play on both teams. I suspect Favre will do OK by keeping it simple, while the Browns' offense will struggle horribly.

Denver-Cincinnati is another interesting game. Will the McDaniels era Broncos perform once they get on the field or will the chaos continue once the season starts? Can the Bengals and more particularly the Palmer-Ochocinco connection forget about 2008 and carry on like the preceding years? Since the Bengals are at home this week I suspect fans of the Broncos will need to get used to what will be a long season, while Cincinnati will get off to a good start. (The better teams will soon expose the Bengals' weaknesses, however.)

ANTHONY BORBELY: I'm looking at the RB rotation in Cleveland. There has been a debate about the Browns' RB situation, with many suggesting that Lewis is on his way out and James Davis will take over. I think that is a bunch of preseason noise. I realize Lewis is on the downside of his career, but the coaches have not indicated that he is in any danger of losing his job. I also think the Davis hype was a bit much in the preseason. He had an 81 yard TD against Detroit in which two players (who were waived) badly missed tackles. In the remainder of his preseason carries, he averaged less than four yards per carry. Jamal Lewis can do that already.

I'm also eager to watch how Matthew Stafford will handle being the starter. He will have his rookie moments, but he seemed to be fairly poised in the preseason, albeit against vanilla defenses. One thing he did show was an ability (and a fearlessness) to throw the ball deep to Calvin Johnson. I think he will have some ups and downs against the Saints, but overall could put up decent numbers if the Saints score a lot and get up big early like I suspect they will.

Matt Forte's workload following the season-ending injury to Kevin Jones is also worth keeping an eye on. I think Forte will revert back to the heavy workload he had in 2008. The Bears simply do not have a capable enough auxiliary RB to keep Forte off the field.

Finally, how will the Oakland RB situation play out in week one? I think McFadden will get most of the work with Michael Bush probably getting the rest. Fargas has been hurt and seems unlikely to play, but the coaches seem to like him. I am leery of this situation going forward.

That will do it for this week. Enjoy the games this weekend, and we'll see you back here next week!