Projection Tweaks
Updated 9/2 by David Dodds, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
I did a major review on all the numbers. I also did my internal double pass with the numbers where I make the totals of all players I project conform with known league averages (yards, TDs, etc). Here are the tweaks where a player's fantasy points changed by +/- 5 fantasy points since last week.
| Pos | Player | tm | Old FP | New FP | Difference | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR | Brian Hartline | Mia | 0.0 | 49.2 | 49.2 | Now in the mix to start opposite of Ginn. |
| WR | Malcolm Kelly | Was | 15.3 | 50.4 | 35.1 | Has moved ahead of Devin Thomas as WR2. |
| RB | Chris Wells | Ari | 103.7 | 136.0 | 32.3 | Getting his health back. Too explosive to not play. |
| WR | Ashley Lelie | KC | 5.9 | 36.8 | 30.9 | Veterans Toomer and Darling out. |
| WR | Matt Jones | FA | 0.0 | 30.6 | 30.6 | Still unsigned, but has some interest. |
| QB | Tyler Thigpen | KC | 14.9 | 44.5 | 29.6 | Cassell hurt |
| WR | Troy Williamson | Jac | 41.3 | 66.8 | 25.5 | Has won starting job opposite of Torry Holt. |
| WR | Limas Sweed | Pit | 40.6 | 63.3 | 22.7 | Looks to have bigger role in the offense in 2009. |
| WR | Arnaz Battle | SF | 0.0 | 22.5 | 22.5 | Rising up the depth charts while Crabtree holds out. |
| WR | Deon, butler | Sea | 41.3 | 63.7 | 22.5 | Rookie turning heads in camp. |
| WR | Kenneth Moore | Car | 6.0 | 27.6 | 21.6 | Has passed Dwayne Jarrett for WR3. |
| WR | Chansi Stuckey | NYJ | 42.2 | 62.1 | 19.9 | Currently holding down the WR2 job. |
| WR | Brandon Marshall | Den | 100.4 | 119.9 | 19.5 | It's on him. If he shuts up and tries he will start. |
| RB | Knowshon Moreno | Den | 131.2 | 150.3 | 19.2 | Getting healthy. Too talented not to play. |
| RB | James Davis | Cle | 57.2 | 75.3 | 18.0 | Looks like a better option than Jamal Lewis already. |
| WR | Javon Walker | Oak | 26.1 | 42.5 | 16.4 | Stepping up with Schilens down. |
| WR | Maurice Stovall | TB | 8.4 | 24.2 | 15.8 | Still has just a modest role. |
| RB | Jamaal Charles | KC | 81.8 | 97.2 | 15.3 | Provides a spark. Team would be crazy not to use him more. |
| RB | Samkon Gado | StL | 27.2 | 42.5 | 15.3 | Has locked down the backup RB job. |
| WR | Sammie Stroughter | TB | 24.3 | 39.5 | 15.2 | Playing well enough to see some action. |
| WR | Darrius Heyward-Bey | Oak | 44.5 | 58.0 | 13.5 | Has horrible hands, but will get a chance to play. |
| TE | Billy Miller | NO | 26.7 | 39.3 | 12.5 | Offense is extremely talented. He will get more looks. |
| WR | Mike Furrey | Cle | 32.7 | 44.6 | 12.0 | Created a role in the slot. |
| TE | Jermichael Finley | GB | 49.1 | 60.9 | 11.8 | Turning heads in camp. |
| RB | Joseph Addai | Ind | 147.3 | 159.0 | 11.6 | Holding off Brown for early carries |
| TE | Todd Heap | Bal | 56.5 | 68.0 | 11.5 | Playing well and is just 29 years old. |
| RB | Julius Jones | Sea | 98.5 | 109.9 | 11.4 | Overstated his demise earlier. |
| WR | Michael Crabtree | SF | 51.9 | 63.1 | 11.2 | I still think he signs soon. |
| QB | JaMarcus Russell | Oak | 190.2 | 201.3 | 11.1 | Team will likely have to throw the ball. |
| WR | Lance Moore | NO | 100.4 | 111.5 | 11.1 | Getting healthy and looks good. |
| WR | Mohamed Massaquoi | Cle | 30.1 | 41.2 | 11.1 | Someone has to emerge opposite of Edwards. |
| RB | Leon Washington | NYJ | 119.2 | 130.1 | 10.9 | Has to get a bigger role. Impressing in camp daily. |
| TE | Jared Cook | Ten | 43.9 | 54.7 | 10.8 | Titans know TEs. Kid could be an elite one soon. |
| RB | Pierre Thomas | NO | 148.8 | 159.3 | 10.6 | Overstated his injury before. |
| RB | Cadillac Williams | TB | 42.5 | 52.4 | 9.9 | Playing well now, but herniated disks loom. |
| WR | Kelly Washington | Bal | 16.5 | 26.2 | 9.7 | One of the few healthy WRs |
| TE | Kellen Winslow | TB | 90.0 | 99.3 | 9.3 | Understated his role before. |
| QB | David Garrard | Jac | 261.9 | 270.4 | 8.5 | Sensing big things here. |
| WR | Mario Manningham | NYG | 25.4 | 33.8 | 8.5 | Will have some role this year. |
| RB | Michael Bennett | SD | 0.0 | 8.5 | 8.5 | Looks like he will make the team. |
| RB | Ahmad Bradshaw | NYG | 96.8 | 105.2 | 8.4 | Adjusted workload mix away from Jacobs slightly. |
| QB | Dan Orlovsky | Hou | 14.0 | 22.4 | 8.4 | Matt Schaub is banged up already. |
| RB | Brandon Jacobs | NYG | 200.0 | 208.3 | 8.3 | Adjusted workload mix towards Bradshaw. |
| QB | Josh Freeman | TB | 14.4 | 22.7 | 8.3 | Will likely see some action this year. |
| WR | Bobby Engram | KC | 57.8 | 66.0 | 8.2 | Still playing at a high level. |
| RB | Clinton Portis | Was | 191.8 | 199.9 | 8.1 | Understating carries before. |
| TE | Chase Coffman | Cin | 10.9 | 18.9 | 8.0 | As bad as he looks blocking he still will have to play. |
| TE | Dan Coats | Cin | 9.8 | 17.8 | 8.0 | Scrub seeing time because of injuries. |
| QB | Mark Sanchez | NYJ | 201.3 | 209.1 | 7.8 | Outplayed Clemens and should hold down job all year. |
| QB | Shaun Hill | SF | 216.9 | 224.3 | 7.4 | Alex Smith missing time further separates these two. |
| QB | Andrew Walter | NE | 0.0 | 7.4 | 7.4 | Backing up Tom Brady now. |
| WR | Jason Carter | Car | 18.6 | 25.8 | 7.2 | Added a TD. |
| WR | Steve Smith | NYG | 93.5 | 100.7 | 7.2 | Is having a great preseason. Looks ready to excel. |
| TE | Martellus Bennett | Dal | 42.5 | 49.6 | 7.1 | Roy Williams durability boosts Bennett a bit here. |
| RB | Steven Jackson | StL | 216.2 | 223.0 | 6.8 | How else is this team going to move the ball? |
| RB | DeShawn Wynn | GB | 33.0 | 39.4 | 6.4 | Backing up Ryan Grant now. |
| WR | Marques Colston | NO | 150.0 | 156.2 | 6.2 | Playing well and injury-free this second. |
| WR | Brandon Stokley | Den | 22.0 | 28.0 | 6.0 | Added a TD. |
| RB | Frank Gore | SF | 205.2 | 210.7 | 5.5 | Team wants to run a lot. Impressive OL. |
| RB | Bernard Scott | Cin | 44.7 | 50.0 | 5.3 | Holding down RB2 job behind Cedric Benson. |
| QB | Aaron Rodgers | GB | 300.7 | 306.0 | 5.2 | Looks to be in playoff form. |
| WR | Hakeem Nicks | NYG | 69.7 | 74.8 | 5.1 | Loaded with talent. He just needs the playing time. |
| TE | Vernon Davis | SF | 78.7 | 73.7 | -5.0 | Will be counted on a lot as a blocker. |
| WR | Kevin Walter | Hou | 107.5 | 102.5 | -5.0 | Nicked up and may miss week 1. |
| RB | Jamal Lewis | Cle | 124.8 | 119.7 | -5.1 | James Davis looks better right now. |
| QB | Derek Anderson | Cle | 72.6 | 67.3 | -5.3 | Brady Quinn beat him out for top spot for now. |
| RB | Edgerrin James | Sea | 96.5 | 91.1 | -5.3 | Lower role than first assumed. |
| RB | Justin Forsett | Sea | 54.3 | 49.0 | -5.4 | Adjusted all the Seattle backs. |
| WR | Demetrius Williams | Bal | 59.0 | 53.6 | -5.4 | Not practicing enough to be the guy. |
| QB | Philip Rivers | SD | 283.5 | 278.0 | -5.5 | More a reflection of pass vs. rush plays. |
| RB | Danny Ware | NYG | 47.0 | 41.0 | -6.0 | Talented player, but logjammed at RB. |
| WR | Robert Meachem | NO | 77.2 | 70.8 | -6.4 | Has skills, but only so many balls to go around. |
| QB | Carson Palmer | Cin | 254.3 | 247.8 | -6.5 | OL woes really starting to scare me. |
| RB | Donald Brown | Ind | 135.3 | 128.6 | -6.7 | Addai has held him off for now. |
| WR | Devery Henderson | NO | 49.5 | 42.6 | -6.9 | More a reflection of Moore and Colston playing great. |
| WR | Johnnie Lee Higgins | Oak | 46.7 | 39.6 | -7.1 | Losing playing time to Javon Walker. |
| QB | Kevin O'Connell | NE | 7.1 | 0.0 | -7.1 | Now buried in Detroit. |
| TE | L.J. Smith | Bal | 23.5 | 16.3 | -7.2 | Can't stay healthy. |
| QB | Kellen Clemens | NYJ | 23.5 | 16.3 | -7.2 | Lost starting gig to Sanchez. |
| WR | Justin Harper | Bal | 16.5 | 9.1 | -7.4 | Health issues. |
| WR | Keenan Burton | StL | 60.0 | 52.5 | -7.6 | Odd man out in pass attack. |
| WR | Mike Walker | Jac | 72.6 | 64.8 | -7.8 | Lost starting job to Williamson for now. |
| TE | Matt Spaeth | Pit | 18.5 | 10.6 | -7.9 | Limited role right now. |
| RB | Michael Bush | Oak | 92.4 | 84.3 | -8.1 | Decreased by a TD mostly. |
| WR | Jason Hill | SF | 33.6 | 25.5 | -8.1 | Arnaz Battle earning playing time now. |
| WR | Ben Obomanu | Sea | 14.2 | 6.0 | -8.2 | Emergence of Deon, butler lessens his impact. |
| WR | Jabar Gaffney | Den | 58.1 | 49.9 | -8.3 | Hurt and opens door back to Brandon Marshall. |
| WR | Josh Morgan | SF | 111.9 | 103.6 | -8.3 | Fewer touches as the team runs all day. |
| QB | Trent Edwards | Buf | 244.5 | 236.1 | -8.3 | OL woes really starting to scare me. |
| WR | Sinorice Moss | NYG | 16.0 | 7.4 | -8.6 | Almost no role with Hicks playing well. |
| QB | Matt Schaub | Hou | 267.5 | 258.6 | -8.9 | Injured, but will likely play for week 1. |
| WR | Nate Washington | Ten | 90.4 | 81.4 | -9.0 | Justin Gage looks like the real WR1 there. |
| RB | Mike Bell | NO | 62.3 | 52.8 | -9.5 | Great camp, but still a backup to Thomas and Bush. |
| WR | Mark Bradley | KC | 82.3 | 72.6 | -9.7 | Hasn't done all that much in camp. Starter by deafult. |
| WR | Mark Clayton | Bal | 86.2 | 76.0 | -10.2 | Can't stay healthy. |
| WR | Antwaan Randle El | Was | 65.7 | 55.0 | -10.7 | Limited role right now. |
| RB | Brian Leonard | Cin | 43.4 | 32.1 | -11.3 | Bernard Scott has looked strong. |
| WR | David Patten | Cle | 20.4 | 7.9 | -12.6 | Losing ground to the rookies. |
| WR | Patrick Turner | Mia | 23.9 | 10.7 | -13.1 | Not currently in the mix for much playing time. |
| RB | Shonn Greene | NYJ | 55.5 | 41.6 | -13.9 | Rookie not likely to cut much into Jones or Washington's looks. |
| WR | Domenik Hixon | NYG | 117.7 | 103.8 | -13.9 | Hicks needs to play sooner. |
| WR | Craig Davis | SD | 39.1 | 24.9 | -14.3 | Talented, but logjammed at WR. |
| TE | Ben Utecht | Cin | 35.5 | 21.0 | -14.6 | Will need to stay in and block often. |
| WR | Devin Thomas | Was | 78.5 | 62.9 | -15.6 | Behind Malcolm Kelly for now. |
| WR | Josh Cribbs | Cle | 53.7 | 36.4 | -17.3 | Overstated role before. |
| RB | Tim Hightower | Ari | 120.6 | 103.0 | -17.7 | Beanie Wells offers more big plays. |
| RB | Earnest Graham | TB | 130.1 | 112.2 | -17.8 | Caddy Williams will have a bigger role until his back flares up. |
| WR | Dexter Jackson | TB | 19.5 | 0.0 | -19.5 | Released. |
| WR | David Clowney | NYJ | 61.8 | 42.0 | -19.8 | Stuckey moved ahead of him on the depth chart. |
| WR | Amani Toomer | KC | 22.1 | 0.0 | -22.1 | Cut by a team with bad WRs. End of the line likely. |
| WR | Dwayne Jarrett | Car | 48.6 | 24.3 | -24.3 | Outplayed by Kenneth Moore. |
| WR | Lloyd Brandon | Den | 43.6 | 14.0 | -29.6 | Overstated his role before. |
| WR | Davone Bess | Mia | 76.2 | 46.2 | -30.0 | Now running behind Hartline and Camarillo. |
| WR | Devard Darling | KC | 38.9 | 0.0 | -38.9 | Placed on IR. Done for the year. |
| QB | Matt Cassel | KC | 259.7 | 220.3 | -39.4 | May miss at least week 1. |