Projection Tweaks
Updated 8/24 by David Dodds, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
I did a major review on all the numbers. I also did my internal double pass with the numbers where I make the totals of all players I project conform with known league averages (yards, TDs, etc). Here are the tweaks where a player's fantasy points changed by +/- 5 fantasy points since last week.
| Pos | Player | tm | Old FP | New FP | Difference | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Shaun Hill | SF | 119.3 | 216.9 | 97.6 | Appears to have won the starting job |
| WR | Troy Williamson | Jac | 0.0 | 41.3 | 41.3 | Mike Walker's injury opening door again for Williamson |
| WR | Mike Furrey | Cle | 0.0 | 32.7 | 32.7 | Looks to be the slot receiver for Browns |
| TE | Gary Barnidge | Car | 6.8 | 34.5 | 27.8 | Has outplayed Dante Rosario and Jeff King |
| WR | Darrius Heyward-Bey | Oak | 18.5 | 44.5 | 26.0 | He will play a bigger role because of Schilens injury |
| RB | Willis McGahee | Bal | 52.3 | 78.0 | 25.7 | Was too quick to count him out before. Backing up Ray Rice. |
| RB | James Davis | Cle | 34.1 | 57.2 | 23.2 | Emerging as clear #2 behind Jamal Lewis. |
| QB | Daunte Culpepper | Det | 66.7 | 88.0 | 21.3 | Stafford looks like he needs more time. |
| WR | Mohamed Massaquoi | Cle | 8.9 | 30.1 | 21.2 | Bigger role than perceived earlier. |
| WR | Kenny Britt | Ten | 38.4 | 59.3 | 20.9 | Electric rookie emerging as a play maker. |
| RB | Rashad Jennings | Jac | 41.1 | 59.3 | 18.2 | Looks like he will secure prime backup role to MJD. |
| RB | Danny Ware | NYG | 30.1 | 47.0 | 16.9 | Having a great camp but has Jabobs and Bradshaw to contend with. |
| WR | Percy Harvin | Min | 76.5 | 93.3 | 16.8 | Dynamic slash type will be involved this season. |
| WR | Jabar Gaffney | Den | 21.3 | 38.0 | 16.6 | Brandon Marshall's fall helps Gaffney here. |
| QB | Derek Anderson | Cle | 57.3 | 72.6 | 15.2 | Quinn may win job but he hasn't separated himself at all. |
| QB | Todd Collins | Was | 0.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | Winning battle over Colt Brennan for the backup gig. |
| RB | Glen Coffee | SF | 41.1 | 55.3 | 14.3 | Impressive rookie just needs a chance. |
| TE | Brent Celek | Phi | 54.0 | 67.6 | 13.6 | Eagles will use Celek often in this offense. |
| RB | DeAngelo Williams | Car | 206.7 | 219.8 | 13.1 | Tougher schedule be damned. This guy is for real. |
| WR | Chad Ochocinco | Cin | 143.4 | 156.2 | 12.9 | He is all the way back from injury. Getting great separation again. |
| WR | Andre' Davis | Hou | 27.4 | 40.1 | 12.7 | Jacoby Jones is in in danger of making the team. |
| WR | Derrick Mason | Bal | 83.4 | 96.1 | 12.7 | One of the few healthy bodies at WR for the Ravens. |
| WR | Donnie Avery | StL | 110.0 | 122.5 | 12.6 | Already itching to play. Is healing way faster than expected. |
| WR | Dwayne Bowe | KC | 151.2 | 163.6 | 12.4 | Seems like he is out of the doghouse now with another preseason TD. |
| QB | Brett Favre | Min | 212.7 | 224.0 | 11.3 | Realization that this offense could be very good this season under Favre. |
| WR | Braylon Edwards | Cle | 141.3 | 152.4 | 11.1 | Playing like the 2007 version. Among the elite if he had a better QB. |
| WR | Isaac Bruce | SF | 68.9 | 79.9 | 11.0 | Michael Crabtree holdout getting uglier by the day. |
| WR | Chaz Schilens | Oak | 53.7 | 64.7 | 11.0 | Injury diminishes him for 2008 but still so much better than the other guys |
| RB | Tim Hightower | Ari | 110.5 | 120.6 | 10.1 | Beanie Wells appears to be made of glass. It's Hightower's gain. |
| TE | Anthony Fasano | Mia | 57.9 | 67.6 | 9.6 | Bigger role than perceived earlier. |
| TE | Greg Olsen | Chi | 96.6 | 106.2 | 9.6 | He could lead the team in targets this year. |
| RB | Larry Johnson | KC | 145.7 | 155.1 | 9.4 | Slimmed down and showing no bad attiture. We are believers. |
| RB | Justin Forsett | Sea | 60.0 | 69.3 | 9.3 | Forsett keeps impressing while Julius Jones heals. |
| TE | Heath Miller | Pit | 67.5 | 76.6 | 9.2 | Added a touchdown and a few more catches. |
| RB | Ladell Betts | Was | 63.9 | 72.5 | 8.6 | His role with the offense is expanding. |
| WR | Davone Bess | Mia | 67.8 | 76.2 | 8.4 | Locked in as the starter opposite of Ted Ginn. |
| RB | Rashard Mendenhall | Pit | 88.4 | 96.5 | 8.1 | He will get his chance to shine this year. |
| RB | Julius Jones | Sea | 118.0 | 126.0 | 8.1 | Easy early schedule helps him hold off Forsett for now. |
| RB | Javon Ringer | Ten | 15.9 | 24.0 | 8.0 | Has played himself to RB3 on this run-oriented team. |
| RB | Bernard Scott | Cin | 36.8 | 44.7 | 7.9 | Exciting rookie is having a great camp. |
| RB | Chris Brown | Hou | 46.6 | 53.9 | 7.3 | Has secured RB2 role behind Steve Slaton with strong camp. |
| WR | Roscoe Parrish | Buf | 15.6 | 22.6 | 7.0 | Culd see more looks with TO hobbled with toe concerns. |
| WR | Bernard Berrian | Min | 123.5 | 130.3 | 6.9 | Added a TD and a few extra receptions. |
| WR | Marques Colston | NO | 143.2 | 150.0 | 6.8 | Appears to be in excellent health again. |
| QB | Charlie Batch | Pit | 3.5 | 9.9 | 6.5 | Added a TD. |
| RB | Tashard Choice | Dal | 40.5 | 46.8 | 6.2 | Playing great. I expect the 2009 Cowboys to run a lot. |
| TE | Jared Cook | Ten | 37.8 | 43.9 | 6.2 | Rookie is turning heads. High upside pick. |
| TE | Vernon Davis | SF | 72.6 | 78.7 | 6.2 | Could this be his year? He is having a great camp. |
| WR | Craig Davis | SD | 33.1 | 39.1 | 6.0 | Rfedistributed the targets around amongst the Chargers' receivers. |
| TE | Dustin Keller | NYJ | 83.8 | 89.6 | 5.8 | Likely the #2 pass catcher behind Cotchery for the Jets. |
| WR | Bobby Engram | KC | 52.3 | 57.8 | 5.5 | Underprojected veteran's role before. |
| WR | David Anderson | Hou | 9.9 | 15.0 | 5.1 | Gains as Jacoby Jones falls. |
| WR | Jason Carter | Car | 13.6 | 18.6 | 5.0 | More yards predicted in the passing game. |
| QB | Kurt Warner | Ari | 274.5 | 269.2 | -5.3 | Limping and season hasn't started yet is not too good. |
| WR | Demetrius Williams | Bal | 67.1 | 61.7 | -5.4 | Had opportunity but is made of glass. |
| WR | Michael Jenkins | Atl | 96.6 | 91.1 | -5.4 | Moved more touches to the run game. |
| TE | Randy McMichael | StL | 66.8 | 61.3 | -5.6 | Avery looks to be returning sooner. |
| WR | Malcolm Kelly | Was | 21.0 | 15.3 | -5.6 | Odd man out on a run-oriented team. |
| WR | Johnny Knox | Chi | 20.5 | 14.8 | -5.8 | Little role this year with Hester and Bennett looking sharp. |
| QB | Kyle Orton | Den | 251.1 | 245.3 | -5.8 | Has looked overwhelmed in camp. |
| QB | Jason Campbell | Was | 247.1 | 241.1 | -6.0 | Holds onto quarterback spot for now. |
| TE | Travis Beckum | NYG | 32.0 | 26.0 | -6.0 | I moved more touches to the run game. |
| TE | Derek Schouman | Buf | 19.9 | 13.9 | -6.0 | Offense looks woeful behind that offensive line. |
| TE | John Owens | Sea | 17.8 | 11.8 | -6.0 | Took away a TD when accounting for total NFL TDs scored. |
| TE | Sean Ryan | KC | 17.3 | 11.3 | -6.0 | Limited role this season. |
| TE | Greg Estandia | Jac | 16.7 | 10.7 | -6.0 | Almost no role this year. |
| WR | Santonio Holmes | Pit | 144.7 | 138.7 | -6.0 | Adjusted his TDs down by 1. |
| WR | Brandon Marshall | Den | 131.0 | 125.0 | -6.0 | Attitude and lack of practice in new offense keeps him sliding lower. |
| WR | Chris Chambers | SD | 92.7 | 86.7 | -6.0 | Adjusted the distribution of receiving TDs on the Chargers |
| WR | Andre Caldwell | Cin | 24.7 | 18.7 | -6.0 | Chris Henry takes away his touches. |
| WR | Sinorice Moss | NYG | 22.0 | 16.0 | -6.0 | Domenik Hixon and Steve Smith are stealing the headlines. |
| WR | Lavelle Hawkins | Ten | 14.4 | 8.4 | -6.0 | In danger of making final roster. |
| WR | Steve Breaston | Ari | 107.4 | 101.3 | -6.1 | Overstated his role earlier. |
| WR | Mark Bradley | KC | 76.3 | 70.1 | -6.2 | Logjam developing at WR. He is underwhelming the staff. |
| RB | Willie Parker | Pit | 147.2 | 140.7 | -6.5 | Overstated his receptions before. |
| QB | Jeff Garcia | Oak | 24.3 | 17.8 | -6.5 | JaMarcus Russell has been named the starter. |
| TE | Jeff King | Car | 19.2 | 12.2 | -6.9 | Passed on the depth chart. |
| TE | Gijon Robinson | Ind | 16.2 | 9.2 | -7.0 | Limited role unless Dallas Clark goes down. |
| WR | Chad Jackson | Den | 7.1 | 0.0 | -7.1 | Undraftable. |
| RB | Maurice Morris | Det | 62.1 | 54.7 | -7.4 | Less of a role than originally thought. |
| WR | Ted Ginn Jr. | Mia | 113.5 | 106.1 | -7.4 | Offense is just average. |
| WR | Josh Morgan | SF | 119.3 | 111.9 | -7.4 | Likely overstated before with the glowing camp reports. |
| WR | Ronald Curry | StL | 34.8 | 27.4 | -7.4 | Avery looks to be returning sooner. |
| RB | Le'Ron McClain | Bal | 95.5 | 87.6 | -7.9 | Logjammed at RB with McGahee playing well in camp. |
| WR | Santana Moss | Was | 137.9 | 130.0 | -7.9 | Moved touches to rushing from passing. |
| QB | Chad Pennington | Mia | 223.3 | 215.3 | -8.0 | Not convinced he will be the guy all year. |
| TE | Bo Scaife | Ten | 63.4 | 55.4 | -8.0 | Jared Cook will be the strating TE at some point this year. |
| WR | Eddie Royal | Den | 145.6 | 137.6 | -8.0 | Distributed touches to Gaffney and others. |
| QB | Kerry Collins | Ten | 190.9 | 182.9 | -8.1 | Offense looks worse when playing without the lead. |
| RB | LenDale White | Ten | 116.3 | 108.2 | -8.1 | He will not be able to repeat last year's numbers unless Johnson gets hurt. |
| WR | Justin Harper | Bal | 26.0 | 17.7 | -8.3 | This team is going to run at every chance. |
| RB | Jamal Lewis | Cle | 133.1 | 124.8 | -8.3 | James Davis will steal some looks. |
| RB | Chris Johnson | Ten | 215.9 | 207.6 | -8.3 | Downgraded touches slightly with the development of Ringer. |
| WR | Greg Camarillo | Mia | 62.0 | 53.7 | -8.4 | Lost starting gig to Davone Bess. |
| WR | Jason Hill | SF | 42.0 | 33.6 | -8.4 | I suspect will be buried on the depth chart all year. |
| RB | Darren Sproles | SD | 113.5 | 104.9 | -8.5 | I think LT holds down the big workload one last year. |
| RB | Kevin Smith | Det | 191.3 | 182.5 | -8.8 | Overstated his carries before. |
| RB | Matt Forte | Chi | 211.6 | 201.7 | -9.9 | Team may throw a lot more than once thought. |
| RB | Marion Barber | Dal | 190.6 | 180.4 | -10.2 | Redistributed rushing touches among the backs. All are capable. |
| RB | Thomas Jones | NYJ | 167.2 | 157.0 | -10.2 | Lowered his touches. Capable players below him on the depth chart. |
| RB | Frank Gore | SF | 215.4 | 205.2 | -10.3 | Glen Coffee is going to steal some carries. |
| RB | Ronnie Brown | Mia | 198.9 | 188.6 | -10.3 | Overstated his case a bit before. |
| RB | Fred Taylor | NE | 126.1 | 115.8 | -10.3 | Too many capable backs on the Patriots to love Fred too much. |
| RB | Brian Westbrook | Phi | 193.0 | 182.7 | -10.4 | Took away a TD and adjusted his touches. |
| RB | Michael Turner | Atl | 233.8 | 223.3 | -10.5 | Decreased his touches here as the passing offense looks very good. |
| RB | Maurice Jones-Drew | Jac | 242.0 | 231.4 | -10.6 | Decreased his touches by about 20. |
| RB | Darren McFadden | Oak | 177.9 | 167.2 | -10.7 | Michael Bush looks to have a bigger role in this offense. |
| QB | Trent Edwards | Buf | 255.3 | 244.5 | -10.8 | Offensive line and now TO's toe are huge issues. |
| RB | Greg Jones | Jac | 58.0 | 46.6 | -11.4 | Overstated his role before. |
| WR | Jerheme Urban | Ari | 47.3 | 35.6 | -11.7 | Top stars Boldin and Fitzgerald leave little for the est of the WRs. |
| WR | Jeremy Maclin | Phi | 76.1 | 64.2 | -11.9 | Hasn't made nearly the impact I was expecting him to. |
| WR | Deion Branch | Sea | 56.1 | 44.0 | -12.2 | Always injured and now is no different. |
| WR | Patrick Turner | Mia | 36.0 | 23.9 | -12.2 | Rookie is buried on the depth chart. |
| RB | DeShawn Wynn | GB | 45.5 | 33.0 | -12.5 | Ryan Grant finally healthy and running strong. |
| WR | Sidney Rice | Min | 89.8 | 77.2 | -12.6 | Percy Harvin will steal a lot of looks. |
| RB | Chris Wells | Ari | 116.7 | 103.7 | -13.0 | Appears to be made of glass. |
| WR | Devery Henderson | NO | 62.7 | 49.5 | -13.2 | Robert Meachem looks strong in camp. |
| WR | Mario Manningham | NYG | 38.6 | 25.4 | -13.3 | Logjammed at WR and he is on losing end. |
| WR | Mike Walker | Jac | 86.4 | 72.6 | -13.8 | Can't stay healthy. Losing grip on playing time. |
| QB | Philip Rivers | SD | 297.9 | 283.5 | -14.4 | Adjusted team's touches towards more running. |
| QB | Colt Brennan | Was | 15.0 | 0.0 | -15.0 | Lost backup QB battle. Has no role this year. |
| RB | Knowshon Moreno | Den | 158.9 | 143.7 | -15.2 | Still not practicing or playing. |
| RB | Clinton Portis | Was | 207.6 | 191.8 | -15.8 | Will share more carries with Betts this year. |
| RB | Steven Jackson | StL | 232.3 | 216.2 | -16.2 | Overstating his ability to stay healthy before. |
| RB | Steve Slaton | Hou | 210.0 | 193.6 | -16.5 | Chris Brown likely to vulture some touches and redzone chances. |
| TE | Alge Crumpler | Ten | 20.6 | 4.0 | -16.6 | He is 300 lbs. Enough said. |
| RB | Leonard Weaver | Phi | 54.5 | 37.7 | -16.8 | Injured and may not play nearly the factor I once thought. |
| RB | Pierre Thomas | NO | 195.0 | 176.8 | -18.2 | Overstated Bush's demise before. |
| WR | Malcom Floyd | SD | 70.7 | 52.4 | -18.3 | Has limited role in this offense right now. |
| WR | Amani Toomer | KC | 62.6 | 44.2 | -18.4 | This will be the Dwayne Bowe show and sloppy seconds for everyone else. |
| WR | Justin Gage | Ten | 103.7 | 83.8 | -19.9 | Kenny Britt is claiming more targets. |
| RB | Jonathan Stewart | Car | 140.2 | 119.8 | -20.5 | Still not practicing. DeAngelo Williams playing great too. |
| WR | Terrell Owens | Buf | 154.4 | 133.7 | -20.7 | Injured toe is worrisome for aging veteran. |
| RB | Chauncey Washington | Jac | 36.4 | 13.4 | -23.0 | Rashard Jennings has passed him on the depth charts. |
| WR | Michael Crabtree | SF | 75.7 | 51.9 | -23.8 | Still holding out. |
| WR | Javon Walker | Oak | 50.1 | 26.2 | -23.9 | Understated Heyward-Bey's role before |
| WR | Johnnie Lee Higgins | Oak | 70.7 | 46.7 | -24.1 | Understated Heyward-Bey's role before |
| WR | Mike Thomas | Jac | 48.9 | 24.5 | -24.5 | Troy Williamson is now in the mix. |
| QB | Matthew Stafford | Det | 162.4 | 137.1 | -25.2 | Looks overwhelmed right now. |
| TE | Dante Rosario | Car | 37.1 | 10.4 | -26.7 | Gary Barnidge appears to have TE1 locked up. |
| RB | Edgerrin James | FA | 28.2 | 0.0 | -28.2 | Still hasn't signed with anyone |
| WR | Jacoby Jones | Hou | 36.1 | 6.6 | -29.5 | Full of potential but he may not make the team. |
| WR | Brian Robiskie | Cle | 75.7 | 34.6 | -41.1 | Rookie is sliding down the depth chart. |
| WR | Matt Jones | FA | 47.0 | 0.0 | -47.0 | Seems blackballed at this point. |
| QB | Alex Smith | SF | 154.2 | 33.9 | -120.3 | Lost starting job to Shaun Hill. |