A Quick Look At PPR Tiering

Posted 8/26 by Steve Lowinger - Exclusive to Footballguys.com

There are a lot of ways to tier players for your fantasy football draft. I am going to go through my thought process a bit, but mainly give you this year's tiers for PPR leagues. I used the FBG expert rankings with some small tweaks for this article. My main board may look a little different, or may change a little in the coming days as we get closer to the draft.

Tiering from a projections list can be broken up many ways. If you are someone who has projected stats for everyone in the league, you can still tier. You just need to decide the "point breaks". Some people will use a 16 point break in tiers (example: Andre Johnson is projected to have 293 points this year (WCOFF cheatsheet), so from 293 - 277 is one tier which includes Johnson, Fitzgerald, and Moss. The next tier starts at WR4 (Calvin Johnson at 274 points (274 - 258) and so on). You can set the tier breaks smaller or larger depending on how big the tier gets, but a tier break of 16 points = 1 PPG so it works on some levels.

For my example, I am not projecting. It is more "from the gut" tiering. I put the guys up and group them. I then will look at the groupings and see if one guy seems wrong in that group and should be higher or lower depending. It may not be as exact as projections, but that is for another article. (I have also done this when I have "projection tiered" as it makes for a nice final run through)

Tiers can have one player or a ton. The main thought behind this is you should feel as comfortable with one person in that tier as any other. This is not completely true, because proper tiers may have one guy with higher upside and injury issues vs. a lower ceiling guy with no injury bug, so it can be a "gut" choice come the moment of the draft (or ADP can be worked with this to get guys in the same tier in different rounds or give you leeway in looking at other positions). Also, this helps with bye week issues, which is a major thing in some of the higher stakes type of leagues (or the leagues where you are going with the strategy of "throwing" a game by having most of your players on the same bye week).

Let's go to the tiers.

Quarterbacks

Now PPR tiering should not change the QBs too much from Clayton Gray's standard scoring tiers article, but these are my tiers. I am going to list the whole tier setup and put notes on the side as to where my breaks came from or anyone I moved up or down:

Tier 1	Looking at my tiers here, the top 6 guys fit into three tiers and they seem to make sense. While some may say "any of the top 4 guys are fine with me," Brees and Brady have a slight edge over Manning and Rodgers. Tier 4 has guys with injury histories along with Cutler (new team) and Romo (lost TO). They all have some question marks which move them into a different tier. McNabb comes close to being in this tier, but that depends on what Vick's role may become. Again, you may have different tiers. I am not big on Roethlisberger as a strong starting Fantasy QB (and in my master tier list I think I have Pennington up there with him), but your mileage may vary. As I said above a guy with an injury history may get moved up or down depending. Schaub and Palmer may be completely different to you, but if either stays healthy they could finish in the top tier. The fact one has never stayed healthy and the other is coming back from a bad injury is why they are in tier 4.
Tom Brady, NE
Drew Brees, NO
Tier 2
Peyton Manning, IND
Aaron Rodgers, GB
Tier 3
Kurt Warner, ARI
Philip Rivers, SD
Donovan McNabb, PHI
Tier 4
Tony Romo, DAL
Carson Palmer, CIN
Matt Schaub, HOU
Jay Cutler, CHI
Tier 5
Matt Ryan, ATL
David Garrard, JAX
Ben Roethlisberger, PIT
Matt Cassel, KC
Matt Hasselbeck, SEA
Tier 6
Eli Manning, NYG
Trent Edwards, BUF
Kyle Orton, DEN
Brett Favre, MIN
Tier 7
Jason Campbell, WAS
Chad Pennington, MIA
Jake Delhomme, CAR
Tier 8
Joe Flacco, BAL
Shaun Hill, SF
Marc Bulger, STL
JaMarcus Russell, OAK
Brady Quinn, CLE
Kerry Collins, TEN
Mark Sanchez, NYJ
Tier 9
Byron Leftwich, TB
Matthew Stafford, DET
Daunte Culpepper, DET
Alex Smith, SF
Sage Rosenfels, MIN
Luke McCown, TB

Running Backs

Tier 1	Again, MJD and Peterson are a great debate here at Footballguys, especially in PPR. There is about a 10 point difference in projections between the two in PPR, so that really puts them in the same tier. You may like one more than the other, and you will pick whomever you want, but for a tier like #4 with 5 RBs, if you get to your pick and all 5 of them are there, you can decide if to go to another position and hope that that tier still has one player in it when it gets back to your pick, or look at the next tier and see if you are comfortable with a guy there before making your pick. One note here: I am not as high on Steven Jackson as FBG is. I moved him down out of the top 5 to a tier I like to call "Possibilities." Truth be told, I may move him down further still because I feel everyone in his tier has the chance to be better than him this year (i.e. He doesn't fit the tier anymore for me). You may notice this in your tiers, and then it is time to adjust your thought process. If you think Michael Turner is much better than the tier he is in, move him up to the next tier. If you think he is better than the group he is in but not as good as the next group, move him into his own tier. I know I am being basic with this, but I do not expect everyone reading this to agree with me, nor should you take this sheet and go draft with it this weekend. Think about each player and tier, even if you aren't a "numbers guy". Some of my tiers have two types of players, and looking at that tier when it comes to my draft, and deciding on who to take, depends on what I have done before. Tier 7 is a good example. If I am thin at RB and need a starter, a guy like Benson or Parker are guys who will be the starter from day 1, but have some real doubts as to how good they may be all year. Donald Brown is not likely to start the year as the feature back, but could have a bigger roll down the stretch. If I have decent starting RBs, I may look past a solid starter for the upside guy. Tier 10 is "guys I may be able to start in a pinch, and tier 11 is "all the rest". Do not drive yourself too crazy on this at the bottom of the draft. There is so much uncertainty here, you will make yourself crazy.
Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX
Adrian Peterson, MIN
Tier 2
LaDainian Tomlinson, SD
Matt Forte, CHI
Frank Gore, SF
Tier 3
Steven Jackson, STL
Chris Johnson, TEN
Steve Slaton, HOU
Brian Westbrook, PHI
DeAngelo Williams, CAR
Tier 4
Michael Turner, ATL
Ronnie Brown, MIA
Clinton Portis, WAS
Marion Barber, DAL
Brandon Jacobs, NYG
Tier 5
Kevin Smith, DET
Darren McFadden, OAK
Pierre Thomas, NO
Reggie Bush, NO
Ryan Grant, GB
Tier 6
Marshawn Lynch, BUF
Knowshon Moreno, DEN
Ray Rice, BAL
Larry Johnson, KC
Tier 7
Joseph Addai, IND
Thomas Jones, NYJ
Derrick Ward, TB
Donald Brown, IND
Cedric Benson, CIN
Willie Parker, PIT
Tier 8
Jonathan Stewart, CAR
Leon Washington, NYJ
Felix Jones, DAL
Jamal Lewis, CLE
Tim Hightower, ARI
Chris Wells, ARI
Tier 9
Earnest Graham, TB
Fred Jackson, BUF
Darren Sproles, SD
Jerious Norwood, ATL
Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG
Chester Taylor, MIN
Julius Jones, SEA
Tier 10
Kevin Faulk, NE
LenDale White, TEN
Fred Taylor, NE
Rashard Mendenhall, PIT
Jamaal Charles, KC
Willis McGahee, BAL
LeSean McCoy, PHI
Tier 11
Le'Ron McClain, BAL
Edgerrin James, SEA
Michael Bush, OAK
Ricky Williams, MIA
Ladell Betts, WAS
Tashard Choice, DAL
Justin Fargas, OAK
James Davis, CLE
Laurence Maroney, NE
Correll Buckhalter, DEN

Wide Receivers

Tier 1	I like my WR tiers, but they still may need a little work. Tier 1 is the elite group, and 2 and 3 look right to me. Tier 4 is the "high upside question mark tier". While building this article, I already noticed I am not happy with tier 5, 6, and 7, so that points me in the right direction to continue massaging those tiers and looking at those players to try and make the tiers ones that I am more comfortable with. I feel the same way with tier 9 and 10. This gives me a blueprint as to where I need to do a little more work as well, which for someone like me who is not a "projections guy" really helps my draft prep. Starting somewhere near tier 12, I start to cherry pick certain guys I'd like to have on my roster. Again, I try to simplify this as much as I can.
Andre Johnson, HOU
Randy Moss, NE
Larry Fitzgerald, ARI
Tier 2
Calvin Johnson, DET
Steve Smith, CAR
Greg Jennings, GB
Reggie Wayne, IND
Tier 3
Anquan Boldin, ARI
Roddy White, ATL
Dwayne Bowe, KC
Wes Welker, NE
Tier 4
Marques Colston, NO
Chad Ochocinco, CIN
Eddie Royal, DEN
T.J. Houshmandzadeh, SEA
Terrell Owens, BUF
Tier 5
Braylon Edwards, CLE
Brandon Marshall, DEN
Hines Ward, PIT
Santana Moss, WAS
Tier 6
Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ
Anthony Gonzalez, IND
DeSean Jackson, PHI
Santonio Holmes, PIT
Donald Driver, GB
Tier 7
Roy Williams, DAL
Vincent Jackson, SD
Laveranues Coles, CIN
Tier 8
Antonio Bryant, TB
Lance Moore, NO
Lee Evans, BUF
Torry Holt, JAX
Tier 9
Bernard Berrian, MIN
Devin Hester, CHI
Derrick Mason, BAL
Donnie Avery, STL
Kevin Walter, HOU
Ted Ginn, MIA
Tier 10
Josh Morgan, SF
Domenik Hixon, NYG
Steve Breaston, ARI
Steve Smith, NYG
Muhsin Muhammad, CAR
Percy Harvin, MIN
Tier 11
Nate Washington, TEN
Chris Henry, CIN
Kevin Curtis, PHI
Tier 12
Nate Burleson, SEA
Earl Bennett, CHI
Michael Jenkins, ATL
Hakeem Nicks, NYG
Tier 13
Chris Chambers, SD
Davone Bess, MIA
Mark Clayton, BAL
Justin Gage, TEN
Sidney Rice, MIN
Tier 14
Michael Crabtree, SF
Mark Bradley, KC
Chaz Schilens, OAK
Joey Galloway, NE
Patrick Crayton, DAL
Isaac Bruce, SF
Devin Thomas, WAS

Tight Ends

Tier 1	In the TE tiers, you can see I have some smaller groupings, and some one man tiers. With something like this where you really have 24 maybe 30 guys you need to look at (and draft) you will notice a little more separation and react accordingly. Some may have the top 4 guys in one tier "Stud TE" and that is fine as well. There is no wrong answer there. You could do the top 4 as "top guys" the next 5 as "could be great, but need some help" and the next 4 or 5 as "breakout potential". That is up to you and how your feel for this position works. You could go back up to the WR groupings and tier it "#1 WR, #2 WR for my lineup, #3 and so on". They will be big tiers, but if you want it that way, and it makes it easier for you to execute your draft, that works. Tiers, like projections, and any other fantasy football info based on what we think may happen is all fine if it helps you make good decisions on draft day. None of us is perfect in this regard.
Jason Witten, DAL
Tier 2
Antonio Gates, SD
Tier 3
Tony Gonzalez, ATL
Dallas Clark, IND
Tier 4
Greg Olsen, CHI
Chris Cooley, WAS
Tier 5
Owen Daniels, HOU
Kellen Winslow, TB
Zach Miller, OAK
Tier 6
John Carlson, SEA
Dustin Keller, NYJ
Tier 7
Jeremy Shockey, NO
Visanthe Shiancoe, MIN
Brent Celek, PHI
Tier 8
Heath Miller, PIT
Anthony Fasano, MIA
Vernon Davis, SF
Bo Scaife, TEN
Tier 9
Kevin Boss, NYG
Tier 10
Tony Scheffler, DEN
Todd Heap, BAL
Randy McMichael, STL
Tier 11
Marcedes Lewis, JAX
Jermichael Finley, GB
Brandon Pettigrew, DET
Tier 12
Donald Lee, GB
Martellus Bennett, DAL
Desmond Clark, CHI
Jared Cook, TEN
Billy Miller, NO
Robert Royal, CLE
Chris Baker, NE

I left out Defenses and Kickers, but tiers do exist there as well. In some years, the kicker tier has one guy in the top tier, 3 guys in tier 2, and then 12 guys in the third tier. You then need to decide what to do next.

Summation

My last two thoughts on tiers are the most important of the article in my mind.

You can tier between positions. I have used Average Value Theory and the like to create the overall VBD column and then create tiers based on that. To use an example using the WCOFF cheatsheet:
- Tier 1 in WCOFF has 2 RBs and 3 WRs (based on their VBD setup). Tier 2 has 2 RBs and 2 WRs, and so on. What I do after that is simply look at my tiers. So tier 1 of RB = tier 1 of WR, tier 2 of RB = Tier 2 of WR. The QB position shows itself at Tier 4 of RB and tier 4 of WR, and the TE tier comes along at Tier 6 of RB and WR and Tier 2 of QB. You can create a master VBD tier list. If a certain tier has 5 WRs, 2 RBs, a QB, and a TE, this can lead you into where to pick depending on wants and needs. To me, this is the most powerful way to use VBD properly (along with ADP, of course). I tend to use historical VBD values via AVT for this, since it does normalize the process a bit.
When drafting with a partner, it is easier to tier players than it is to combine projections. I have a WCOFF team with a friend of mine. We do not see eye to eye on all players (who does), but going line by line on a projection sheet, or trying to merge 2 or more sheets makes no sense. He and I go through our rankings and tiers to move guys up or down and it is a better and easier process (and one that can be done over drinks) than going back to the spreadsheet to adjust the number of TDs this guy or that guy will score.

I hope this helped a little. This came out a little more basic that I wanted it to be, but I used most of Footballguys.com's opinions rather than my own to make this list. The tiers were my own, and I did move a few things around when they looked off to me. Good luck and happy drafting.