Trader Joe's - Week 9

Posted 11/4 by Jeff Pasquino, Exclusive for Footballguys.com

Welcome one and all to "Trader Joe's", the trading outpost here at Footballguys.com. Over the course of this season this will be the place where we talk about trading strategy and trade dynamics. All types of leagues will be discussed, but given that so many fantasy football leagues are redraft in nature we will focus primarily on redraft leagues.

I will be your usual host and respond to your questions and comments as quickly as possible. The best questions I receive in the Assistant Coach Forum at Footballguys.com will likely also appear in this column, whereupon I will add more commentary.

Just like the seasons, this column will be evolving throughout all 17 weeks of the NFL season. From the first weeks of the year and then to midseason and onward to the playoffs, we will address the timing of the trade market and how the dynamics of the season also play an important part in trading.

Here we are in Week 9, the second to last week of NFL byes, with the Bills, Browns, Vikings, Jets, Raiders and Rams all taking a much needed rest. These six teams are off this week in the final of three consecutive weeks with six teams on a bye, but they do carry some crucial players. Brett Favre, Adrian Peterson, Thomas Jones and Steven Jackson are all creating one more week of lineup gaps for owners, who all want to survive this week and make a playoff push. Fortunately six other teams are back in action to help out in some places. I'm sure everyone will be glad to have all 32 teams back in action once again in Week 11.

As the calendar turns yet another page, hopefully you post-Halloween lineup doesn't look too scary. The leaves are falling and so are NFL players, and we are talking about injury deals in this week's column. Other topics include what to do about future keepers and how to get the most from your roster to try and win that league title.

As for Keeper and Dynasty leagues, two different views are emerging in leagues, classified as the "haves" and the "have-nots". If you are in the "have", you are likely a strong team and making a run at the playoffs, but others that are "have nots" are looking already at next year. Fire sales and draft picks will be on the market up to and even on your league trading deadline, so look for beneficial trades all the way to that point. Trading a veteran to a "have" in exchange for a future value (player or pick) can be a "win-win" situation.

Once again this year we will keep the standard format. The questions I receive in the Assistant Coach Forum can be on any topic within your league, but I would advise you that the more general the question, the more applicable it becomes to everyone and thus it is more beneficial to all. The "Who should I trade" questions are still welcome (as long as they follow the format outlined below), but if you'd like to see your question in my column, strategy and/or trade philosophy is highly recommended.

For Example

Team / league specific question:

"I can keep three players. I have Matt Forte, Maurice Jones-Drew, Chris Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald. Who do you recommend?"

The better way to generalize the question, yet still get your answer:

"I have three Top 10 running backs (Forte, MJD, Chris Johnson) and a Top 10 WR (Boldin), but I can only keep three. Is it better to keep three running backs, or should I keep a top shelf WR and two backs?"

I would request that you include the following regarding your trade questions:

Type of league (Dynasty, Keeper, Contract, Auction, Redraft, other)
Starting Roster (positions you play each week)
Scoring format
Number of teams in your league
Roster size
Regarding keepers - if you ask a "who should I keep" question, please note the "penalty", if any, for keeping a player (i.e. a draft pick)
Regarding a trade - post the other team(s) roster(s) of the teams with which you are negotiating
Any other pertinent info that would help me to help you

Let's get to some trade talks. In an effort to expedite finding a particular scenario of interest to all of our readers, I will number each question and provide a brief synopsis here:

Question 1: Dealing Depth For Starters
Question 2: Be Extra Careful When Trading with Losing Teams
Question 3: Analyze His Lineup for Trade Targets
Question 4: Ordinary Teams Wanting to be Extraordinary
Question 5: Dynasty "Win Now" can Cost Too Much

So let's get to it.

Question 1

The first question this week comes from "Phaceplant", who is looking at a deal to exchange some of his depth for a better starting option:

Yo Joe!

I'm in a 10 Team Redraft PPR league standard scoring.
1point per rec, 1point every 10 rec/rush yrd, 1point 20 pass yrd, 4points pass TD, 6points rush/rec TD, -2points fumble, -1point INT
Start: 1-QB, 2-RB, 3-WR, 1-TE, 1-PK, 1-DEF

Roster is as follows:

QB- Peyton Manning
RB- Chris Johnson, Cedric Benson, Knowshon Moreno, Correll Buckhalter, Tim Hightower, Larry Johnson
WR- Calvin Johnson, Bryant Johnson, Santana Moss, Chad Ochocinco, Pierre Garcon, Lance Moore
TE- Dallas Clark, Visanthe Shiancoe
PK- Matt Stover
Def- Vikings, Bills

I'm currently 4-3 but after tonight I will be 5-4 or 6-3 (Depending on S. Moss) If I win both games tonight (Double Header) I will be in 3rd place overall.

Looking to get a little more depth at WR. I currently have 2 top 10 RBs (Cedric Benson & Chris Johnson) and only 1 top 10 WR (Chad Ochocinco). I'm hurting right now at WR as my WR2 is currently the #30 WR overall in my league (Santana Moss). I have put 2 trades out so far, my #4 RB (Knowshon Moreno) and my #5 WR (Bryant Johnson) for Santonio Holmes and the other trade is the same but I get Mike Sims-Walker. Are these good trades? I was also thinking about packaging Santana Moss with Moreno for Holmes, MSW or Donald Driver?

Thanks Joe. Love the site. Oh and I'm a rookie in my league (Everyone else has been playing for years).

Thanks again,
Nick.

And my reply.

Hi Phaceplant,

LOL - I guess I'll always get called "Joe".

If you can get Santonio Holmes for your 4th RB, that's a no-brainer. Even the throw-in of WR5 and you still win. MSW isn't as good, but it still helps you.

Time to trade depth for better starters. Move a RB or a RB/WR combo for a strong WR2 and you're set for a postseason run once Calvin is back.

Good luck.

After the bye weeks are nearing an end and with just a few games left in your fantasy regular season, depth on your team means less and less with each passing week. At this time of the year you want as many points on your starting lineup as possible with little care for your bench. Trade those wasted points for better starters.

Question 2

Our next question comes from "bigbrother", who is looking at a deal with a struggling team in his league:

Hi Jeff,

Took your advice not to trade Ocho earlier in the year, thanks! I am currently 6-1, but have a lot of ?. Any advice will be greatly appreciated. Here's what I'm thinking in my redraft: start 1 qb, 2 rb, 3 wr/te, 1 k, 1 d/st
scoring: 4pt pass td, 6 pt rush/rec td, 1ppr, .04 per yard passing, .05 rush/rec per yard

My team (1-6)

Cutler, Jay CHI QB
Hasselbeck, Matt SEA
Addai, Joseph
Bradshaw, Ahmad
Jackson, Fred
Lynch, Marshawn
Williams, DeAngelo
Bowe, Dwayne
Johnson, Calvin
Nicks, Hakeem
Ochocinco, Chad
Sims-Walker, Mike
Tynes, Lawrence
Eagles

Team 2 (0-7)

Flacco, Joe
Rivers, Philip
McGahee, Willis
Portis, Clinton
Wells, Chris
White, LenDale
Williams, Ricky
Fitzgerald, Larry
Harvin, Percy
Mason, Derrick
Nelson, Jordy
Owens, Terrell
Carney, John
Vikings

His needs to win bad and need RB help. I would like to upgrade @ qb, wr1, and get a hold of Wells.

Thinking of:
Calvin/Addai/Hasselbeck for Fitz/Wells/Flacco or something along that line. Would this be fair or even a good idea? Any other suggestions?

Interesting question, and one that draws an unexpected answer:

Hi bigbrother,

Are you 6-1 or 1-6?

Be careful here. Trading between a 6-1 team and an 0-7 team can start to raise red flags. Unless the 0-7 team has motivation to get better (monetary or otherwise) be careful as to not raise any possibilities of collusion concerns. A team out of the running should really not help teams destined for the postseason.

Your trade offer seems fair, but just wanted to give you a heads up.

Good luck.

I can pretty much guarantee a few questions in November from fantasy football players about the dreaded "C" word - collusion - when it comes to late season deals. At face value it makes sense for two teams to always try to improve, but if one team has nothing but pride to trade for, you may want to think long and hard before making what could be viewed as a controversial transaction.

Question 3

Question 3 comes from "Big Blue Wrecking Crew", who is trying to make a move for a running back:

Hi Jeff,

10 team PPR redraft
1 per 10 yrds rec or rush
1 ppr
1 per 25 yrds passing
6 per td rush or rec
5 per td passing
QB/2 RB/2 WR/TE/K/D/Flex (RB/WR/TE)

Trying to put together a trade to shore up my RBs with my surplus WRs, but haven't come up with the right combination.

My team:

RB: LT2/Pierre/Bell/Beanie/D. Brown
WR: S. Smith (CAR)/DeSean/Housh/M. Austin/S. Rice/Manningham

Team I am trying to work trade with:

RB: Forte/Jacobs/Mendenhall/Moreno/K. Smith/Maroney
WR: Jennings/Hester/Breaston/Maclin

Proposals so far (all proposed prior to last week's games):

Smith/L. Washington for Jennings/Jacobs (turned down by him)
Jacobs/Maclin for Smith (turned down by me)
Jacobs for Housh (turned down by him)
Jacobs/Maclin for DeSean/Austin (quickly turned down by me)

Struggling with concern of trading wrong pieces, so looking for help on that right package.

TIA

So here were my first thoughts:

Hi Big Blue,

You have to tell him what RBs you want and what you are willing to move. He's still trying as are you. That's good.

Ask him what the going rate is for all of his RBs and go for one. I'd shoot for Moreno, that hasn't been touched yet. Austin for Moreno is a good deal for both of you. He starts three of Forte/KSmith/Mendenhall/Moreno, so one of them is useless to him. Same for your extra WRs. That's how the deal has to be sold.

Look at who he normally starts at RB - look at Week 6. Whomever was on the bench is your target. That's likely Moreno.

Good luck.

When you find a team that is stacked at the position you really want to deal for, try and figure out who is the most expendable guy on that team. Looking at weekly roster decisions can give you a great clue as to who is the least desired player by that team's owner. Points get wasted on a fantasy bench, but if his bench player would be a starter for you, there's your target. Identify, seek and make that deal happen!

Question 4

Next we have an interesting question comes in from "DeeJayK", who is struggling with trying to win now but also be competitive for a potential playoff run:

Hey Jeff, appreciate your thoughts on this.

I've got a tough one here that I'm really struggling with. I'm at 4-3 in a twelve-team league where only 4 teams go to the playoffs. I'm sitting at 2 games back in my division, so my focus is on the lone wild card spot right now. Over the next three weeks, I play the teams that are the most likely competition for the wild card -- two of them are 4-3 and one is 5-2. I feel like I've got to at least go 2-1 over this stretch to stay alive for the playoffs. The problem is that I'm dealing with fairly significant byes over the next two weekends.

League: 12-team, 0.5 PPR, redraft. Start: 1 QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1WR/TE flex, 1TE, 1Def/ST, 1PK.

My team

QB: Schaub, Garrard
RB: AD, Benson, D. Brown, Wells, Bush
WR: Megatron, Ochocinco, Bowe, Royal, Jenkins
TE: V. Davis, Winslow
Def/ST: Chargers

His team

QB: McNabb
RB: Ray Rice, Slaton, Grant, McCoy, Shonn Greene
WR: Randy Moss, Sims-Walker, Housh, Walter, Morgan, A. Gonz
TE: Keller
Def/ST: Vikings, Saints

The Deal

I get: Ray Rice, Sims-Walker, A. Gonz, Vikings
I give: AD, Bowe, Winslow, Chargers

My Analysis:
On the surface it looks like a bad deal for me since I'm giving up value at the top (AD is more valuable than Rice and Bowe is probably more valuable than Sims-Walker). The key to the trade is that I'll be replacing Bowe's bye (this week) with Sims-Walker, and replacing AD's bye (next week) with Ray Rice. Both Sims-Walker and Rice have already had their byes. One of the keys for him is that he gets an upgrade at TE (Winslow over Keller) -- this doesn't cost me much since I have Davis.

What do you think? Smart move, or am I giving up too much value?

A tough one, but so many teams are in this situation. My thoughts:

Hi DeeJayK,

Tough one for sure.

Here's the question you have to ask yourself - if you manage to make the postseason with Bowe, Sims-Walker and Rice, what chance do you have of beating two of the other Top 3 teams?

Rice plays Chicago and Pittsburgh while ADP plays Carolina and Chicago, for example.

I understand you need to get a few Ws now, but you're rolling dice at some point here - either in November or in December. When do you want to gamble?

This deal looks mostly to be a Ray Rice for ADP deal, as most are a wash.

The interesting thing is that ADP isn't getting goal line carries (Childress isn't very bright it seems), so maybe this really is a good deal for you.

Given your need to win now, I'd take the deal and cross your fingers. Losing ADP is never a good thing, but given your situation you have to make something happen now. Take the deal and hope.

Good luck.

These decisions are make or break ones for a fantasy franchise that is floating around .500 this time of year. In order to win your league championship you have to both make the playoffs and be competitive. The question is, which of these is more important? I say making the playoffs simply because a dominant December lineup means little if you don't have a game to play. At some point ordinary team must make an extraordinary move, so make it now and hope for the best come playoff time.

Question 5

This column comes and goes quickly, as here we are again at Question 5. It is a good one to close on, as it hits on the "Win Now" versus the long term goals of Dynasty Fantasy Football. "Poye" writes:

Hi Jeff,
PPR standard scoring 12 team dynasty league

I have an offer for McCoy, I'm thin at RB this week due to bye week but can start up to 4 WRs

My McCoy and My first pick in 2010 (6 to 12)
For his Steve Smith (NYG) and Thomas Jones

My roster

QB:Rivers, Favre, Sanchez, Garrard
RB: Benson, Julius, Maroney, Fargas, McCoy, Charles, Caddy
WR: Wayne, V-Jax, Royal, Clayton, Holt

Thanks.

My reply:

Hi poye,

No way do I give up McCoy for that. I'd hold him in a Dynasty league.

McCoy could be the starter in Philly sooner rather than later, and as you said you can start 4 WRs.

I'd lean towards McCoy, Wayne, VJax, Royal and Holt for this week and hold McCoy.

Never let one week determine your team's fate, especially in Dynasty leagues. You'll regret it later.

Good luck.

That last statement is the biggest words of advice I give out in multi-year leagues. Never let a short term decision dictate your long term goals of a multi-year team. Making a bad move during a fantasy season has ripple effects that can last for years. I'm a fan of going for championships when you have that opportunity, but be smart about it and do not throw away too much of the future for the "Win Now" mode.

So that will do it for the Week 9 edition of Trader Joe's, and I sincerely hope that I helped some of you owners out there to think about some trades and new ways to improve your team. Until next week, I'll see you at Trader Joe's.

References

Trader Joe's from the Assistant Coach Forum at Footballguys.com.
The Dynasty Draft Pick Calculator, written by Jeff Pasquino. First introduced here.
Tricks of the T.R.A.D.E., written by Jeff Pasquino.