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Quality Starts - Wide Receivers (PPR)

  Posted 8/5 by Jeff Pasquino, Exclusive for Footballguys.com

There are some fantasy football players that believe that the lineup you pick can lose you a game just as much as it can win a contest. Having a player give you a consistent performance week after week can be considered more valuable than a player who goes off every third week and then takes two weeks off between those fantastic performances. Consistency has a value, and it does not take much of a leap to understand that players that you can rely on for solid games when you need them (such as in your postseason) are a huge advantage.

Baseball has a term called "Quality Starts" for pitchers, which is a statistic that represents how often a starting pitcher will put up a good (not great, just good) performance in a given game. The bar is set neither high nor low (six innings pitched, three earned runs or fewer) so as to gauge a decent performance. The theory behind it is that if your pitcher gives you a Quality Start, your team has a fighting chance to win a given game.

So now we need to translate this to football. What is "quality" for each position? How do we define a "Quality Start" for quarterbacks or running backs or any other position? Looking back at the 2008 season, I decided to take the #24 WR for the year (Laveranues Coles, 197.9 fantasy points) and take that fantasy total and divide it by 16 for a per game average. Now a case can be made to argue against doing this. I did not account for missed games or a per-start performance metric, but I believe that the numbers will get averaged out by doing this method. Also, taking WR24 seems a bit arbitrary, but if you are looking for a bare minimum of quality, the 24th WR should be the "worst starter" in your fantasy league as a WR2 and a great WR3.

So now we move on to the next question - one of quantifying the quality. At what point do we decide whether or not a quarterback has given us a quality performance? Here is where it gets a bit murky, but looking at the distribution of WR performances by starters over the season and it becomes evident that the using the 24th WR average and adding or subtracting a percentage gives us a good range for a WR Quality Start.

Using the WR Quality Start range, we can also define a bad performance or an excellent performance as either falling below or exceeding the Quality Start range. Table 1 gives us the fantasy points that it takes to fall in each of the three areas:

QB Start Type
Fantasy Points
Bad Start
0 to 9.2
Quality Start
9.3 to 15.4
Excellent Start
15.5+

Table 1: WR Quality Start and Fantasy Point Ranges (PPR Scoring)

Table 2 shows us the breakdown of all the Top 75s and how many of each type of start resulted for each:

Wide Receiver
Excellent
Quality
Bad
Total
Johnson, Andre HOU
12
2
2
16
Fitzgerald, Larry ARI
12
4
0
16
Johnson, Calvin DET
12
3
1
16
White, Roddy ATL
9
6
1
16
Marshall, Brandon DEN
8
6
1
15
Boldin, Anquan ARI
8
4
0
12
Jennings, Greg GBP
10
5
1
16
Smith, Steve CAR
10
4
0
14
Bryant, Antonio TBB
8
4
4
16
Welker, Wes NEP
9
6
1
16
Owens, Terrell DAL
9
2
5
16
Moss, Randy NEP
8
3
5
16
Wayne, Reggie IND
9
3
4
16
Royal, Eddie DEN
10
2
3
15
Moore, Lance NOS
8
2
6
16
Bowe, Dwayne KCC
9
6
1
16
Ward, Hines PIT
9
2
5
16
Moss, Santana WAS
7
4
5
16
Jackson, Vincent SDC
7
6
3
16
Mason, Derrick BAL
6
4
6
16
Houshmandzadeh, T.J. CIN
5
6
4
15
Driver, Donald GBP
6
7
3
16
Walter, Kevin HOU
6
3
7
16
Coles, Laveranues NYJ
6
4
6
16
Breaston, Steve ARI
8
2
6
16
Cotchery, Jerricho NYJ
7
4
5
16
Berrian, Bernard MIN
7
3
6
16
Muhammad, Muhsin CAR
4
7
5
16
Evans, Lee BUF
6
5
5
16
Bruce, Isaac SFO
7
3
6
16
Jackson, DeSean PHI
7
4
5
16
Holmes, Santonio PIT
2
10
3
15
Ginn Jr., Ted MIA
5
5
6
16
Edwards, Braylon CLE
4
4
8
16
Holt, Torry STL
4
6
6
16
Harrison, Marvin IND
5
3
7
15
Avery, Donnie STL
4
5
6
15
Colston, Marques NOS
6
1
4
11
Jones, Matt JAC
4
5
3
12
Clayton, Mark BAL
5
1
10
16
Jenkins, Michael ATL
2
7
7
16
Gonzalez, Anthony IND
4
3
9
16
Randle El, Antwaan WAS
2
8
6
16
Hester, Devin CHI
3
7
5
15
Gage, Justin TEN
4
4
4
12
Henderson, Devery NOS
2
5
9
16
Ocho Cinco, Chad CIN
3
4
6
13
Toomer, Amani NYG
3
5
8
16
Wade, Bobby MIN
1
6
9
16
Camarillo, Greg MIA
4
2
5
11
Washington, Nate PIT
2
5
9
16
Reed, Josh BUF
3
3
7
13
Smith, Steve NYG
2
3
11
16
Stokley, Brandon DEN
2
4
9
15
Hixon, Domenik NYG
3
4
9
16
Crayton, Patrick DAL
3
3
10
16
Johnson, Bryant SFO
4
2
10
16
Bess, Davone MIA
2
4
10
16
Hilliard, Ike TBB
3
3
10
16
Northcutt, Dennis JAC
3
1
10
14
Chambers, Chris SDC
2
5
7
14
Burress, Plaxico NYG
4
1
5
10
Urban, Jerheme ARI
3
3
10
16
Gaffney, Jabar NEP
3
2
11
16
Floyd, Malcom SDC
5
1
7
13
Engram, Bobby SEA
1
4
8
13
Jones, Brandon TEN
2
1
13
16
Branch, Deion SEA
3
3
2
8
Baskett, Hank PHI
3
2
10
15
Williams, Reggie JAC
2
2
12
16
Davis, Rashied CHI
3
1
12
16
Clayton, Michael TBB
2
2
11
15
Williams, Roy DAL
3
1
12
16
Bradley, Mark KCC
2
3
6
11
Higgins, Johnnie Lee OAK
3
2
11
16
Totals
384
282
465
.

Table 2: 2008 WR Start Types By Player Sorted By Total Starts (PPR Scoring)

That's a lot of info to digest, so let me help. First, we see that there are far more Excellent Starts (384) than Quality Starts (282), which is a bit surprising but in 2007 the numbers were more even at 322-300 (see the 2008 article here). Considering how well wide receivers did in 2008 and some of the big years the Top 15-20 WRs had, it does make a little more sense. There are a lot of Bad Starts (465), but we are only looking for the best here, plus a "start" is not as definitive for a positional player that may just see partial playing time. The net results look like a good trend, which means that our distribution is close to normal and that our baseline point range does make sense.

Now, to dig deeper, let's look at the numbers distributed in two different ways. First, I need to define a valuable starting quarterback in this system. We want a WR that will win more fantasy games than lose them, so we want either "Quality" or "Excellent" starts. Using a simple formula of scoring each type of start, we can define the value of a given NFL wide receiver. Here is the formula:

NFL WR Value = Excellent Starts - Bad Starts

We neglect to look at Quality Starts because they neither win games nor lose them on average - they are just average WR performances. We only really care about how often he helps our team vs. how often he hurts it. Giving a "-1" value to bad starts and "+1" to excellent ones does this for us.

On with the results, sorted by value:

Wide Receiver
Excellent
Quality
Bad
Total
Net Val
Fitzgerald, Larry ARI
12
4
0
16
12
Johnson, Calvin DET
12
3
1
16
11
Johnson, Andre HOU
12
2
2
16
10
Smith, Steve CAR
10
4
0
14
10
Jennings, Greg GBP
10
5
1
16
9
White, Roddy ATL
9
6
1
16
8
Boldin, Anquan ARI
8
4
0
12
8
Welker, Wes NEP
9
6
1
16
8
Bowe, Dwayne KCC
9
6
1
16
8
Marshall, Brandon DEN
8
6
1
15
7
Royal, Eddie DEN
10
2
3
15
7
Wayne, Reggie IND
9
3
4
16
5
Bryant, Antonio TBB
8
4
4
16
4
Owens, Terrell DAL
9
2
5
16
4
Ward, Hines PIT
9
2
5
16
4
Jackson, Vincent SDC
7
6
3
16
4
Moss, Randy NEP
8
3
5
16
3
Driver, Donald GBP
6
7
3
16
3
Moore, Lance NOS
8
2
6
16
2
Moss, Santana WAS
7
4
5
16
2
Breaston, Steve ARI
8
2
6
16
2
Cotchery, Jerricho NYJ
7
4
5
16
2
Jackson, DeSean PHI
7
4
5
16
2
Colston, Marques NOS
6
1
4
11
2
Houshmandzadeh, T.J. CIN
5
6
4
15
1
Berrian, Bernard MIN
7
3
6
16
1
Evans, Lee BUF
6
5
5
16
1
Bruce, Isaac SFO
7
3
6
16
1
Jones, Matt JAC
4
5
3
12
1
Branch, Deion SEA
3
3
2
8
1
Mason, Derrick BAL
6
4
6
16
0
Coles, Laveranues NYJ
6
4
6
16
0
Gage, Justin TEN
4
4
4
12
0
Walter, Kevin HOU
6
3
7
16
-1
Muhammad, Muhsin CAR
4
7
5
16
-1
Holmes, Santonio PIT
2
10
3
15
-1
Ginn Jr., Ted MIA
5
5
6
16
-1
Camarillo, Greg MIA
4
2
5
11
-1
Burress, Plaxico NYG
4
1
5
10
-1
Holt, Torry STL
4
6
6
16
-2
Harrison, Marvin IND
5
3
7
15
-2
Avery, Donnie STL
4
5
6
15
-2
Hester, Devin CHI
3
7
5
15
-2
Floyd, Malcom SDC
5
1
7
13
-2
Ocho Cinco, Chad CIN
3
4
6
13
-3
Edwards, Braylon CLE
4
4
8
16
-4
Randle El, Antwaan WAS
2
8
6
16
-4
Reed, Josh BUF
3
3
7
13
-4
Bradley, Mark KCC
2
3
6
11
-4
Clayton, Mark BAL
5
1
10
16
-5
Jenkins, Michael ATL
2
7
7
16
-5
Gonzalez, Anthony IND
4
3
9
16
-5
Toomer, Amani NYG
3
5
8
16
-5
Chambers, Chris SDC
2
5
7
14
-5
Hixon, Domenik NYG
3
4
9
16
-6
Johnson, Bryant SFO
4
2
10
16
-6
Henderson, Devery NOS
2
5
9
16
-7
Washington, Nate PIT
2
5
9
16
-7
Stokley, Brandon DEN
2
4
9
15
-7
Crayton, Patrick DAL
3
3
10
16
-7
Hilliard, Ike TBB
3
3
10
16
-7
Northcutt, Dennis JAC
3
1
10
14
-7
Urban, Jerheme ARI
3
3
10
16
-7
Engram, Bobby SEA
1
4
8
13
-7
Baskett, Hank PHI
3
2
10
15
-7
Wade, Bobby MIN
1
6
9
16
-8
Bess, Davone MIA
2
4
10
16
-8
Gaffney, Jabar NEP
3
2
11
16
-8
Higgins, Johnnie Lee OAK
3
2
11
16
-8
Smith, Steve NYG
2
3
11
16
-9
Davis, Rashied CHI
3
1
12
16
-9
Clayton, Michael TBB
2
2
11
15
-9
Williams, Roy DAL
3
1
12
16
-9
Williams, Reggie JAC
2
2
12
16
-10
Jones, Brandon TEN
2
1
13
16
-11

Table 3: 2008 WR Start Types Sorted By Value (PPR Scoring)

This is a lot of information once again, but some names leap out at us. For example, Antonio Bryant and Vincent Jackson far exceed their ADP value last year. Also, even with Anquan Boldin and Carolina's Steve Smith both missing a few starts, their per-game studliness makes them both a good gamble to draft for this year. On the low side, several players that are high picks this year like Chad Ochocinco and Braylon Edwards need to step up and fill their starter roles. Granted this is a new season, but based on Table 3 it is not surprising if you drafted Ochocinco or Edwards and missed your fantasy playoffs last year.

Lastly I will sift through it for you and get right to the heart of the matter with our final table. Here we have the results sorted by value for the Top 36 WRs on the 2009 ADP list.

Wide Receiver
Excellent
Quality
Bad
Total
Net Val
ADP
Fitzgerald, Larry ARI
12
4
0
16
12
6
Johnson, Calvin DET
12
3
1
16
11
15
Johnson, Andre HOU
12
2
2
16
10
10
Smith, Steve CAR
10
4
0
14
10
22
Jennings, Greg GBP
10
5
1
16
9
23
White, Roddy ATL
9
6
1
16
8
25
Boldin, Anquan ARI
8
4
0
12
8
26
Welker, Wes NEP
9
6
1
16
8
33
Bowe, Dwayne KCC
9
6
1
16
8
29
Marshall, Brandon DEN
8
6
1
15
7
35
Royal, Eddie DEN
10
2
3
15
7
64
Wayne, Reggie IND
9
3
4
16
5
21
Bryant, Antonio TBB
8
4
4
16
4
58
Owens, Terrell DAL
9
2
5
16
4
32
Ward, Hines PIT
9
2
5
16
4
72
Jackson, Vincent SDC
7
6
3
16
4
54
Moss, Randy NEP
8
3
5
16
3
14
Moore, Lance NOS
8
2
6
16
2
84
Moss, Santana WAS
7
4
5
16
2
73
Cotchery, Jerricho NYJ
7
4
5
16
2
86
Jackson, DeSean PHI
7
4
5
16
2
62
Colston, Marques NOS
6
1
4
11
2
27
Houshmandzadeh, T.J. CIN
5
6
4
15
1
40
Berrian, Bernard MIN
7
3
6
16
1
71
Evans, Lee BUF
6
5
5
16
1
65
Coles, Laveranues NYJ
6
4
6
16
0
83
Walter, Kevin HOU
6
3
7
16
-1
90
Holmes, Santonio PIT
2
10
3
15
-1
61
Holt, Torry STL
4
6
6
16
-2
93
Avery, Donnie STL
4
5
6
15
-2
89
Hester, Devin CHI
3
7
5
15
-2
94
Ocho Cinco, Chad CIN
3
4
6
13
-3
49
Edwards, Braylon CLE
4
4
8
16
-4
45
Gonzalez, Anthony IND
4
3
9
16
-5
67
Williams, Roy DAL
3
1
12
16
-9
44

Table 4: 2009 Top Drafted WRs Sorted By 2008 Value (PPR Scoring)

(Note that a Michael Crabtree is not included simply because of his rookie status.)

Judging form last season, it would appear that Wes Welker is the best value amongst the Top 20 WRs going off the draft board, while Eddie Royal, Lance Moore, Antonio Bryant and Hines Ward could all prove to be a huge steal if they can keep up the 2008 pace all season. That brings up an important point, which is that this is based solely on last year's results. There is no reason to believe in these numbers as indications of 2009 performance, but having this information available should give you more to think about when deciding who you will have leading your fantasy team this year.

As always, feedback is welcome at pasquino@footballguys.com.

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