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Quality Starts - Wide Receivers

  Posted 8/5 by Jeff Pasquino, Exclusive for Footballguys.com

There are some fantasy football players that believe that the lineup you pick can lose you a game just as much as it can win a contest. Having a player give you a consistent performance week after week can be considered more valuable than a player who goes off every third week and then takes two weeks off between those fantastic performances. Consistency has a value, and it does not take much of a leap to understand that players that you can rely on for solid games when you need them (such as in your postseason) are a huge advantage.

Baseball has a term called "Quality Starts" for pitchers, which is a statistic that represents how often a starting pitcher will put up a good (not great, just good) performance in a given game. The bar is set neither high nor low (six innings pitched, three earned runs or fewer) so as to gauge a decent performance. The theory behind it is that if your pitcher gives you a Quality Start, your team has a fighting chance to win a given game.

So now we need to translate this to football. What is "quality" for each position? How do we define a "Quality Start" for quarterbacks or running backs or any other position? Looking back at the 2008 season, I decided to take the #24 WR for the year (Derek Mason, 136 fantasy points) and take that fantasy total and divide it by 16 for a per game average. Now a case can be made to argue against doing this. I did not account for missed games or a per-start performance metric, but I believe that the numbers will get averaged out by doing this method. Also, taking WR24 seems a bit arbitrary, but if you are looking for a bare minimum of quality, the 24th WR should be the "worst starter" in your fantasy league as a WR2 and a great WR3.

So now we move on to the next question - one of quantifying the quality. At what point do we decide whether or not a quarterback has given us a quality performance? Here is where it gets a bit murky, but looking at the distribution of WR performances by starters over the season and it becomes evident that the using the 24th WR average and adding or subtracting a percentage gives us a good range for a WR Quality Start.

Using the WR Quality Start range, we can also define a bad performance or an excellent performance as either falling below or exceeding the Quality Start range. Table 1 gives us the fantasy points that it takes to fall in each of the three areas:

QB Start Type
Fantasy Points
Bad Start
0 to 6.3
Quality Start
6.4 to 10.6
Excellent Start
10.7+

Table 1: WR Quality Start and Fantasy Point Ranges

Table 2 shows us the breakdown of all the Top 75 WRs and how many of each type of start resulted for each:

Wide Receiver
Excellent
Quality
Bad
Total
Fitzgerald, Larry ARI
12
3
1
16
Johnson, Calvin DET
11
3
2
16
Johnson, Andre HOU
11
1
4
16
Jennings, Greg GBP
8
6
2
16
White, Roddy ATL
9
2
5
16
Smith, Steve CAR
9
3
2
14
Boldin, Anquan ARI
7
2
5
14
Owens, Terrell DAL
8
2
6
16
Bryant, Antonio TBB
7
2
7
16
Moss, Randy NEP
6
2
8
16
Royal, Eddie DEN
6
6
3
15
Marshall, Brandon DEN
6
4
5
15
Jackson, Vincent SDC
8
4
4
16
Moore, Lance NOS
6
3
7
16
Moss, Santana WAS
6
3
7
16
Wayne, Reggie IND
6
4
6
16
Welker, Wes NEP
7
5
4
16
Berrian, Bernard MIN
7
2
7
16
Breaston, Steve ARI
5
5
6
16
Ward, Hines PIT
8
2
6
16
Bowe, Dwayne KCC
3
10
3
16
Walter, Kevin HOU
6
2
8
16
Jackson, DeSean PHI
7
3
6
16
Mason, Derrick BAL
6
2
8
16
Driver, Donald GBP
5
5
6
16
Coles, Laveranues NYJ
5
3
8
16
Higgins, Johnnie Lee OAK
6
2
8
16
Ginn Jr., Ted MIA
6
2
8
16
Bruce, Isaac SFO
6
3
7
16
Evans, Lee BUF
5
3
8
16
Cotchery, Jerricho NYJ
3
7
6
16
Holmes, Santonio PIT
2
7
6
15
Houshmandzadeh, T.J. CIN
3
4
8
15
Muhammad, Muhsin CAR
3
5
8
16
Hester, Devin CHI
3
5
7
15
Edwards, Braylon CLE
2
6
8
16
Clayton, Mark BAL
5
0
11
16
Colston, Marques NOS
6
0
5
11
Randle El, Antwaan WAS
3
5
8
16
Hixon, Domenik NYG
4
3
9
16
Gage, Justin TEN
4
3
5
12
Henderson, Devery NOS
2
6
8
16
Avery, Donnie STL
3
5
7
15
Cribbs, Josh CLE
3
3
9
15
Jenkins, Michael ATL
2
3
11
16
Holt, Torry STL
3
3
10
16
Harrison, Marvin IND
3
1
11
15
Gonzalez, Anthony IND
3
2
11
16
Crayton, Patrick DAL
2
4
10
16
Jones, Matt JAC
2
4
6
12
Washington, Nate PIT
3
1
12
16
Toomer, Amani NYG
2
4
10
16
Urban, Jerheme ARI
4
1
11
16
Bess, Davone MIA
0
4
12
16
Ocho Cinco, Chad CIN
3
1
9
13
Wade, Bobby MIN
1
5
10
16
Chambers, Chris SDC
1
3
10
14
Camarillo, Greg MIA
3
2
6
11
Stokley, Brandon DEN
1
4
10
15
Johnson, Bryant SFO
3
1
12
16
Floyd, Malcom SDC
4
0
9
13
Davis, Rashied CHI
1
4
11
16
Burress, Plaxico NYG
3
2
5
10
Douglas, Harry ATL
1
3
12
16
Reed, Josh BUF
1
2
10
13
Hilliard, Ike TBB
2
2
12
16
Branch, Deion SEA
2
2
4
8
Northcutt, Dennis JAC
2
0
12
14
Bradley, Mark KCC
3
1
7
11
Smith, Steve NYG
0
2
14
16
Baskett, Hank PHI
1
4
10
15
Austin, Miles DAL
1
3
8
12
Gaffney, Jabar NEP
2
2
12
16
Lloyd, Brandon CHI
2
1
8
11
Williams, Roy DAL
1
3
12
16
Totals
316
232
579
.

Table 2: 2008 WR Start Types By Player Sorted By Total Starts

That's a lot of info to digest, so let me help. First, we see that there are far more Excellent Starts (316) than Quality Starts (232), which is comparable to last year's numbers of 340-240. The disparity does start to rise since there is no PPR in the equation now - touchdowns for six big points are a much larger factor. The scoring range is also smaller and the range of a Quality Start is small due to lower scores, so more touchdowns would lead to bigger "Excellent Starts". There are a lot of Bad Starts (579), but we are only looking for the best here, plus a "start" is not as definitive for a positional player that may just see partial playing time. The net results look like a good trend, which means that our distribution is close to normal and that our baseline point range does make sense.

Now, to dig deeper, let's look at the numbers distributed in two different ways. First, I need to define a valuable starting quarterback in this system. We want a WR that will win more fantasy games than lose them, so we want either "Quality" or "Excellent" starts. Using a simple formula of scoring each type of start, we can define the value of a given NFL wide receiver. Here is the formula:

NFL WR Value = Excellent Starts - Bad Starts

We neglect to look at Quality Starts because they neither win games nor lose them on average - they are just average WR performances. We only really care about how often he helps our team vs. how often he hurts it. Giving a "-1" value to bad starts and "+1" to excellent ones does this for us.

On with the results, sorted by value:

Wide Receiver
Excellent
Quality
Bad
Total
Net Val
Fitzgerald, Larry ARI
12
3
1
16
11
Johnson, Calvin DET
11
3
2
16
9
Johnson, Andre HOU
11
1
4
16
7
Smith, Steve CAR
9
3
2
14
7
Jennings, Greg GBP
8
6
2
16
6
White, Roddy ATL
9
2
5
16
4
Jackson, Vincent SDC
8
4
4
16
4
Royal, Eddie DEN
6
6
3
15
3
Welker, Wes NEP
7
5
4
16
3
Boldin, Anquan ARI
7
2
5
14
2
Owens, Terrell DAL
8
2
6
16
2
Ward, Hines PIT
8
2
6
16
2
Marshall, Brandon DEN
6
4
5
15
1
Jackson, DeSean PHI
7
3
6
16
1
Colston, Marques NOS
6
0
5
11
1
Bryant, Antonio TBB
7
2
7
16
0
Wayne, Reggie IND
6
4
6
16
0
Berrian, Bernard MIN
7
2
7
16
0
Bowe, Dwayne KCC
3
10
3
16
0
Moore, Lance NOS
6
3
7
16
-1
Moss, Santana WAS
6
3
7
16
-1
Breaston, Steve ARI
5
5
6
16
-1
Driver, Donald GBP
5
5
6
16
-1
Bruce, Isaac SFO
6
3
7
16
-1
Gage, Justin TEN
4
3
5
12
-1
Moss, Randy NEP
6
2
8
16
-2
Walter, Kevin HOU
6
2
8
16
-2
Mason, Derrick BAL
6
2
8
16
-2
Higgins, Johnnie Lee OAK
6
2
8
16
-2
Ginn Jr., Ted MIA
6
2
8
16
-2
Burress, Plaxico NYG
3
2
5
10
-2
Branch, Deion SEA
2
2
4
8
-2
Coles, Laveranues NYJ
5
3
8
16
-3
Evans, Lee BUF
5
3
8
16
-3
Cotchery, Jerricho NYJ
3
7
6
16
-3
Camarillo, Greg MIA
3
2
6
11
-3
Holmes, Santonio PIT
2
7
6
15
-4
Hester, Devin CHI
3
5
7
15
-4
Avery, Donnie STL
3
5
7
15
-4
Jones, Matt JAC
2
4
6
12
-4
Bradley, Mark KCC
3
1
7
11
-4
Houshmandzadeh, T.J. CIN
3
4
8
15
-5
Muhammad, Muhsin CAR
3
5
8
16
-5
Randle El, Antwaan WAS
3
5
8
16
-5
Hixon, Domenik NYG
4
3
9
16
-5
Floyd, Malcom SDC
4
0
9
13
-5
Edwards, Braylon CLE
2
6
8
16
-6
Clayton, Mark BAL
5
0
11
16
-6
Henderson, Devery NOS
2
6
8
16
-6
Cribbs, Josh CLE
3
3
9
15
-6
Ocho Cinco, Chad CIN
3
1
9
13
-6
Lloyd, Brandon CHI
2
1
8
11
-6
Holt, Torry STL
3
3
10
16
-7
Urban, Jerheme ARI
4
1
11
16
-7
Austin, Miles DAL
1
3
8
12
-7
Harrison, Marvin IND
3
1
11
15
-8
Gonzalez, Anthony IND
3
2
11
16
-8
Crayton, Patrick DAL
2
4
10
16
-8
Toomer, Amani NYG
2
4
10
16
-8
Jenkins, Michael ATL
2
3
11
16
-9
Washington, Nate PIT
3
1
12
16
-9
Wade, Bobby MIN
1
5
10
16
-9
Chambers, Chris SDC
1
3
10
14
-9
Stokley, Brandon DEN
1
4
10
15
-9
Johnson, Bryant SFO
3
1
12
16
-9
Reed, Josh BUF
1
2
10
13
-9
Baskett, Hank PHI
1
4
10
15
-9
Davis, Rashied CHI
1
4
11
16
-10
Hilliard, Ike TBB
2
2
12
16
-10
Northcutt, Dennis JAC
2
0
12
14
-10
Gaffney, Jabar NEP
2
2
12
16
-10
Douglas, Harry ATL
1
3
12
16
-11
Williams, Roy DAL
1
3
12
16
-11
Bess, Davone MIA
0
4
12
16
-12
Smith, Steve NYG
0
2
14
16
-14

Table 3: 2008 WR Start Types Sorted By Value

This is a lot of information once again, but some names leap out at us. For example, Eddie Royal, Wes Welker and Vincent Jackson are Top 10 WRs as far as Quality Starts are concerned but both fell down into the WR11-WR20 range last year based on their total stats. On the low side, several players that are high picks this year like Chad Ochocinco and Braylon Edwards need to step up and fill their starter roles. Granted this is a new season, but based on Table 3 it is not surprising if you drafted Ochocinco or Edwards and missed your fantasy playoffs last year.

Lastly I will sift through it for you and get right to the heart of the matter with our final table. Here we have the results sorted by value for the Top 36 WRs on the 2009 ADP list.

Wide Receiver
Excellent
Quality
Bad
Total
Net Val
ADP
Fitzgerald, Larry ARI
12
3
1
16
11
6
Johnson, Calvin DET
11
3
2
16
9
15
Johnson, Andre HOU
11
1
4
16
7
10
Smith, Steve CAR
9
3
2
14
7
22
Jennings, Greg GBP
8
6
2
16
6
23
White, Roddy ATL
9
2
5
16
4
25
Jackson, Vincent SDC
8
4
4
16
4
54
Royal, Eddie DEN
6
6
3
15
3
64
Welker, Wes NEP
7
5
4
16
3
33
Boldin, Anquan ARI
7
2
5
14
2
26
Owens, Terrell DAL
8
2
6
16
2
32
Ward, Hines PIT
8
2
6
16
2
72
Marshall, Brandon DEN
6
4
5
15
1
35
Jackson, DeSean PHI
7
3
6
16
1
62
Colston, Marques NOS
6
0
5
11
1
27
Bryant, Antonio TBB
7
2
7
16
0
58
Wayne, Reggie IND
6
4
6
16
0
21
Berrian, Bernard MIN
7
2
7
16
0
71
Bowe, Dwayne KCC
3
10
3
16
0
29
Moore, Lance NOS
6
3
7
16
-1
84
Moss, Santana WAS
6
3
7
16
-1
73
Moss, Randy NEP
6
2
8
16
-2
14
Walter, Kevin HOU
6
2
8
16
-2
90
Coles, Laveranues NYJ
5
3
8
16
-3
83
Evans, Lee BUF
5
3
8
16
-3
65
Cotchery, Jerricho NYJ
3
7
6
16
-3
86
Holmes, Santonio PIT
2
7
6
15
-4
61
Hester, Devin CHI
3
5
7
15
-4
94
Avery, Donnie STL
3
5
7
15
-4
89
Houshmandzadeh, T.J. CIN
3
4
8
15
-5
40
Edwards, Braylon CLE
2
6
8
16
-6
45
Ocho Cinco, Chad CIN
3
1
9
13
-6
49
Holt, Torry STL
3
3
10
16
-7
93
Gonzalez, Anthony IND
3
2
11
16
-8
67
Williams, Roy DAL
1
3
12
16
-11
44

Table 4: 2009 Top Drafted WRs Sorted By 2008 Value

(Note that a Michael Crabtree is not included simply because of his rookie status.)

Judging form last season, it would appear that Vincent Jackson is the best value amongst the Top 20 WRs going off the draft board, while Eddie Royal could prove to be a huge steal if he can keep up his 2008 pace all season. That brings up an important point, which is that this is based solely on last year's results. There is no reason to believe in these numbers as indications of 2009 performance, but having this information available should give you more to think about when deciding who you will have leading your fantasy team this year.

As always, feedback is welcome at pasquino@footballguys.com.

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