For the Win - Week 1
Updated 9/9 by Jeff Pasquino, Exclusive for Footballguys.com
This year we're going to be doing the weekly NFL picks a little differently at Footballguys. I'm taking this over from Mike Brown this season, and for those of you who have seen my picks in 2007 and 2008, you may recognize some of the format. I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Here's a sample from last year: Pasquino Picks. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season. Let's get started with Week 1, which can be a difficult week to make choices. If you have been on top of the NFL to this point and all through preseason, this might afford you a good advantage and help you to get off to a fast start. Hopefully this will be the case this year.
Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.
(Thursday) PITTSBURGH (-6) vs. TENNESSEE
Welcome to the 2009 NFL Season! Pittsburgh continues the young tradition of the Super Bowl victor hosting Opening Night on a Thursday, and the Titans are the first victim to visit Heinz Field. The Steelers are not 100% on defense (Lawrence Timmons is unlikely to play) which will help Chris Johnson, but Pittsburgh is just too good across the board. Defenses are often ahead of the offenses early in the year, which is bad news for Tennessee. The Titans will learn quickly that teams will attack the spot formerly occupied by Albert Haynesworth and Willie Parker should have a very good day. Both teams should be able to get to the mid-teens on the scoreboard, but I expect Pittsburgh to win by a touchdown, something like 24-17. PICK: Steelers
ATLANTA (-4) vs. MIAMI
This is not going to be that pretty of a game. I expect Ron Brown and Michael Turner to run the ball 20+ times each in this contest and both teams to move the chains with short passes on one another. In a back and forth contest, give me the team with the better receiving corps and top RB that also happens to be at home. The game will be quick with lots of completions underneath and plenty of ground game, making for a lower scoring affair played in well under three hours. PICK: Falcons
BALTIMORE (-12.5) vs. KANSAS CITY
The first of three contests with a certain "theme" that will be discussed later on as we go. Kansas City is already hurting with Matt Cassel not at full strength, and even if he is - is it such a good idea to have him under center against Baltimore? Cassel led the league in being sacked last year, and Mr. Piñata's offensive line will have the Cassel wishing he was surrounded by a moat. Expect Baltimore to win this one handily as the Chiefs may struggle to even get to double-digits on the scoreboard. PICK: Ravens
PHILADELPHIA (-1) at CAROLINA
While the talk of the preseason has revolved around Michael Vick for the Philadelphia Eagles, very quietly they have gotten healthier with Brian Westbrook ready to go and their offensive line back together. The same cannot be said for the Panthers, who are hoping that Jon Beason can play and play well enough in run support for a front four defensive unit that is shaky at best. Adding to the woes for the Panthers is RB Jonathan Stewart who may miss Week 1. The game will be back and forth as both teams will be feeling their way through it for the opening week, but I will take the team with a better quarterback and a better (and healthier) overall defense. PICK: Eagles
CINCINNATI (-4) VS. DENVER
Do I have to pick this one? Ugh - this is going to be an ugly contest. Both teams scream "Jekyll and Hyde" to me for 2009, as I could easily see both looking good on offense at times and then again looking terrible. With both defenses rebuilding, this game could easily go either way. I will take the team with the better and healthier quarterback in Carson Palmer and give the home team a reluctant nod. PICK: Bengals
MINNESOTA (-4) at CLEVELAND
No, this pick has nothing tot do with Brett Favre, but rather more about the inevitable ineptitude that should be coming from the Browns this year. Cleveland is trying to hide behind the "Guess the QB" game, but really, does that even matter? If I am the defensive coordinator for the Vikings, I am doubling Braylon Edwards and daring Cleveland to beat us any other way - and I doubt that happens. Couple this with the "Williams Wall" being intact for Week 1 and Adrian Peterson being fresh for Opening Day and I predict a long afternoon for Browns fans. PICK: Vikings
HOUSTON (-4.5) vs. NEW YORK JETS
This game is another tough call, but I have to go with both the healthier team and the team with what I think is the better offensive unit. Houston's Matt Schaub has Steve Slaton, Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels at his disposal, while the rookie Mark Sanchez has Jerricho Cotchery and Dustin Keller? Talk about a mismatch in talent. Sure, the Texans may be without Kevin Walter, but he is the fourth receiving option in that offense. Adding to this with the Jets' suspensions on defense (Shaun Ellis) and the gates could open up for the Texans to start the season with a home victory. PICK: Texans
JACKSONVILLE (+7.5) vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Here is where it pays to pay close attention to injuries. The Colts are ailing in the secondary, and there is no question that they are different defensive club without safety Bob Sanders - but he is not alone on the injury front. Kelvin Hayden may miss the game and FS Antoine Bethea has a broken hand but will play - but do not expect an interception from him. With that type of weakness, look for David Garrard to target Torry Holt early and often to stretch the field and open up the middle for Maurice Jones-Drew. The Jaguars always seem to play the Colts tough, and this game should be no different. The Colts are favored by 7 but in some spots you can still get "the hook", and you would be very wise to do so. I love the Jaguars getting points here and they could even steal this one. PICK: Jaguars
NEW ORLEANS (-13.5) at DETROIT
Poor, poor Detroit. Over half of the roster has been turned over since that winless season last year, but the history will not go away until the Lions put a "1" on the left side of the standings. Despite improvements on both sides of the ball, Detroit is outclassed and overmatched by the top passing team and most prolific offense from last season. The Saints may not have Pierre Thomas, but that likely will not matter as it will be tough for the Lions to hold the Saints under 31 points. I rarely put any weight towards preseason games, but if anyone saw the Oakland-Saints game then you saw how ridiculous New Orleans and Drew Brees can make a defense look. That's about what I expect this week as the Saints win in big fashion. PICK: Saints
DALLAS (-5.5) at TAMPA BAY
The Cowboys will look to get out of the gate early and put up some solid offense in Florida against the Bucs, who are still trying to learn who is who and what is what on offense. Dallas has wide receiver issues after Roy Williams, but if Tony Romo does nothing but target Jason Witten and give his trio of running backs 30-40 combined touches then this game should be over shortly after it gets started. The Bucs have Byron Leftwich under center and they have this mysterious "2-2-1" arrangement with Cadillac Williams, Derrick Ward and Earnest Graham cycling through series on offense. Sorry, but a "2-2-1" sounds more like a basketball formation and the scoreboard may look like it under the "Cowboys" by the fourth quarter. Dallas gets off to a good start in Week 1 with an easy victory in Tampa. PICK: Cowboys
SAN FRANCISCO (+6.5) vs. ARIZONA
The 49ers are not going to be as bad as some think this year. Shaun Hill is a capable NFL starter, but their offense is still going to feature Frank Gore early and often. As head coach Mike Singletary has said, the offense does and will go through #21 (Gore). Arizona is coming off a short and disappointing off-season with their Super Bowl loss and has struggled on offense in the preseason. They are still juggling their RB situation between Chris "Beanie" Wells and Tim Hightower. Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston are also hurting, so the offense will likely be a few steps behind the defense in Week 1. I like the Cardinals to eek out a victory, but not by a full touchdown. PICK: 49ers
NEW YORK GIANTS (-6.5) vs. WASHINGTON
The Giants may have troubles in determining their top wideout this season, but this team is one that Bill Parcells would love - run the ball early and often and play strong defense. The Giants will contend for top sack totals in the NFL again this year with a scary front four with depth behind it, and Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw will combine for about 2,000 total yards or more this year. That should be a great recipe to win more than they lose this year, and starting out of the gate with a home opener against a divisional opponent demands that the Giants get focused. Tom Coughlin understands this and will have the Giants ready. Washington will try and grind it out behind Clinton Portis and get Jason Campbell to hit Chris Cooley and Santana Moss to get close to 20 points, but they likely will fall short and the Giants should open up the year with a 24-13 type victory. PICK: Giants
SEATTLE (-8) vs. ST. LOUIS
For those of you with this as your FOX game of the week, the good news is that the games will get better soon. The bad news is that you may be seeing one of the worst matchups of Week 1. Hang in there. Seattle is actually a dark horse to contend for the NFC West, so a tilt of divisional foes is huge for both clubs. A trip to Seattle is never easy for any team, and the Rams are still not healthy. Donnie Avery is reportedly at full strength but Marc Bulger still has issues and may have to take snaps in the shotgun all game. That actually could help him as he may need that extra time to get rid of the ball, for Seattle's defensive front should put pressure on him all day. Seattle is missing Marcus Trufant at corner but they should do enough to cover Avery and let Laurent Robinson go one-on-one on the other side. Seattle still lacks for a decent ground attack but they should have enough weapons through the air to get 20-27 points and win their home opener. PICK: Seahawks
GREEN BAY (-3.5) vs. CHICAGO
There will not be any "Frozen Tundra" this week, but an NFC North clash of divisional foes is a great Sunday night game to start the year. Matt Forte vs. Ryan Grant may be the billing (or Jay Cutler vs. Aaron Rodgers), but remember that these guys never see the field at the same time. It is Grant vs. Urlacher and Briggs, or Forte vs. A.J. Hawk and Nick Barnett. The Green Bay defense has looked very impressive so far this preseason, but I am even more impressed by their new 3-4 scheme and personnel. The Bears will struggle all night on both sides of the ball and they will be picked on by Rodgers due to the injuries throughout the Chicago secondary. Green Bay should put up a big number here and the Bears will be well overmatched. PICK: Packers
(Monday) NEW ENGLAND (-11) vs. BUFFALO
Buffalo just fired their offensive coordinator (that's three in the past week or so, that has to be a record) because of their "Pop Warner" offensive scheme. Yikes. That's not good news when your home opener is against the Patriots, as Bill Belichick will try and unleash Tom Brady to the entire Monday Night Football audience. If there is one thing that Belichick loves, it is showing off his team. With this schedule and big audience on opening night, look for the Patriots to try and get well over 31 points (I can see 41, easy) on the Bills as they try and make a "look at us, we're still here" statement to the rest of the league. Buffalo will have to bear the brunt of this attack and may struggle to even get 14 points. This will not be pretty - unless Gisele Bundchen is in the house. PICK: Patriots
(Monday) SAN DIEGO (-9.5) at OAKLAND
That's right, sports fans! A double-dip of NFL action in Week 1 for Monday Night Football is on the docket yet again this year! Somebody should tell Oakland, since well, you know, they're supposed to be fielding a pro team. Yeah, I know - I'm kicking the Raiders while they are down, but did you see them in the preseason? Or last year? Or the year before? I'll give them some credit if they get the ball in the hands of Michael Bush and Darren "Run DMC" McFadden a combined 30+ times, but somehow I doubt that will happen. The good news for East Coast NFL fans is that they can watch the first half and get some sleep early, because this could be over by halftime. PICK: Chargers
BEST BETS
This section will be different this year, as I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.
* ONE STAR GAMES *(Thursday) PITTSBURGH (-6) vs. TENNESSEE
(Thursday) PITTSBURGH vs. TENNESSEE (OVER 35)
ATLANTA vs. MIAMI (UNDER 43.5)
BALTIMORE vs. KANSAS CITY (UNDER 36.5)
MINNESOTA at CLEVELAND (UNDER 40)
JACKSONVILLE vs. INDIANAPOLIS (OVER 44.5)
NEW ORLEANS at DETROIT (UNDER 49.5)
DALLAS (-5.5) at TAMPA BAY
DALLAS at TAMPA BAY (UNDER 39.5)
NEW YORK GIANTS (-6.5) vs. WASHINGTON
(Monday) SAN DIEGO at OAKLAND (UNDER 43.5)
** TWO STAR GAMES **
MINNESOTA (-4) at CLEVELAND
JACKSONVILLE (+7.5) vs. INDIANAPOLIS
DALLAS (-5.5) at TAMPA BAY
GREEN BAY (-3.5) vs. CHICAGO
(Monday) NEW ENGLAND (-11) vs. BUFFALO
*** THREE STAR GAMES *** None this week.
PICK OF THE WEEK: Green Bay Packers