Scouting Fantasy Football

  Posted 8/11 by Jeff Pasquino - Exclusive to Footballguys.com

It's August - summer is in full force, the days are hot, the sun is blazing, kids are out of school.

That's right - it's football time again.

In just a matter of a few days, 32 NFL teams are about to begin the difficult process of weeding through their 80-man rosters to get down to their final 53 man rosters by Week 1. That's roughly a third of the squad that has to be released over the next month or so, so all the couches, scouts and even some front office personnel will be asked to watch practices and preseason games for any indicators as to whether a player should stay or go from their team's roster.

So what is a fantasy football fan supposed to be doing in August? Exactly the same thing - but from a different vantage point. Very good fantasy players develop an eye for talent, just like the NFL scouts. That's about the end of the similarity between the two, however, since the end goal of each is different. Fantasy owners want fantasy production, pure and simple. Those who are asked to judge NFL caliber talent are looking for players who can contribute to all aspects of the game and the team - subtleties that may be missed by fantasy players or even criteria that some just won't care about. After all, how many long snappers are drafted in your league?

Please note that we are talking about scouting players for EVERY type of league - redraft, keeper or dynasty. Knowing what players can step up in the event of an injury or if a surprise player becomes a starter always helps, no matter what format your fantasy league.

What I'm attempting to break down is a description, position by position, of what could best be labeled as a "Fantasy Scouting for Dummies", at least as far as what I typically look for whenever I watch a game. I might see something on one play or over the course of a game, but no matter what it is, it has to stand out. I want players who will make you stand up and pay attention when they are between the white lines. So let's get started.

Quarterbacks

First Looks - Scouting a quarterback is difficult at times. Deciding on whether a QB is good enough to cut it at the NFL level can take several years, so do not be surprised if this is harder than it looks. Sure, anyone watching Matt Ryan could see right out of the gate that he has what it takes to succeed. But what about those who are struggling?

Scouting for fantasy purposes can go as simply as running down the fantasy checklist:

Fantasy Checklist

1. Does the QB have a pass-happy coach?
2. Does the team have a weak ground game?
3. Does the team have a suspect defense?
4. Are there at least two good receivers (either two wideouts or a WR / TE combo)?
5. Can at least one RB catch the ball well out of the backfield?
6. Does the team play in good weather or a dome at least half of the schedule?

If you get at least three "YES" responses to the checklist, you may be on to someone. Getting a QB that has to pass and has lots of choices can lead to big fantasy games.

Running Backs

First Looks - There are a ton of running backs in the NFL right now, which is one of the reasons we see the running back by committee (RBBC) approach on so many teams. That hurts from a fantasy football perspective, but quite often one or more backs gets hurt over the course of a long year. Scouting out which situations are going to lead to a beneficial RB selection or late season addition is worth evaluating as early as possible.

Scouting for fantasy purposes can go as simply as running down the fantasy checklist:

Fantasy Checklist

1. Does the RB have a good offensive line?
2. Does the team have a weak passing attack?
3. Does the team play solid defense?
4. If this is a RBBC situation, is the depth chart barren after the top two backs?
5. Does the team play in bad weather at times, particularly at the back end of the schedule?

If you get at least three "YES" responses to the checklist, you may be on to someone. Getting a running back that is on a team that has an emphasis on running the ball 30-35 times a game can lead to a great situation for a stud RB to emerge. Also, injuries can and do happen. Picking a back in a committee and waiting for the other guy to get hurt can land you a featured rusher on the cheap. As for why a strong defense is favorable, teams that have a lead in a tight game want to control the clock and run their "four minute drill" in the fourth quarter to move the chains and keep that clock running.

Wide Receivers

First Looks - If you have been through a fantasy draft already or even just a mock draft, you already know that after about 30 wide receivers go off the board it becomes a rather big mess. The sixth or seventh WR you add could be just as valuable as your fourth wideout on your squad - it becomes rather difficult to tell them apart after the big studs are selected. So what do you do?

Scouting for fantasy purposes can go as simply as running down the fantasy checklist:

Fantasy Checklist

1. Does the WR have a pass-happy coach?
2. Does the team have a weak ground game?
3. Does the team have a suspect defense?
4. Is there a clear starting quarterback with a good history of posting good fantasy numbers?
5. Does the team play in good weather or a dome at least half of the schedule?

If you get at least three "YES" responses to the checklist, you may be on to someone. Getting a wideout on a team that favors the passing game with a strong QB can be just the right fantasy situation. Adding to that would be a suspect defense on the other side of the ball so that the teams wind up in more 31-27 type games than in defensive struggles.

Tight Ends

First Looks - After the Top 10 TEs are drafted in most fantasy drafts, it becomes quite the struggle to decide on who comes next. Some teams use the TE more, while others just see the position as an extra lineman. Having the right backup TE on your fantasy squad can help you win those closer fantasy games where an extra touchdown catch can make or break your week.

Scouting for fantasy purposes can go as simply as running down the fantasy checklist:

Fantasy Checklist

1. Does the TE have a pass-happy coach?
2. Does the team have a weak ground game, especially between the tackles?
3. Does the team lack for a secondary receiver?
4. Does the team have speedy and small wide receivers?
5. Is there a clear starting quarterback with a good history of posting good fantasy numbers?

If you get at least three "YES" responses to the checklist, you may be on to someone. Getting a tight end on a team that favors the passing game with a strong QB can be just the right fantasy situation. Even more important is the pecking order as far as pass progressions. If there is not a strong second WR on the team, the TE becomes that second option for a quarterback and the receiving TE will likely see eight or more targets a week. Also helpful is a team that struggles to punch it across the goal line - a big target at the end of the offensive line to go run a five-yard curl pattern and get open in the end zone can lead to great fantasy numbers. Adding to that would be a suspect defense on the other side of the ball so that the teams wind up in more 31-27 type games than in defensive struggles.

Kickers

First Looks - Yes, we're talking about kickers. Trust me for a minute here. When you lose a fantasy game by three points or less, you'll be kicking yourself if you don't have the right field goal kicker on our squad. Every point counts.

So how do you "scout" kickers? It's all about the situations:

Fantasy Checklist

1. Is the kicker on a team that historically puts up a lot of points?
2. Does the team project to struggle in the Red Zone?
3. Does the team have a strong defense?
4. Does the kicker play on a team that calls a domed stadium home?
5. For distance bonus leagues, doe the kicker's head coach have a history of attempting longer field goals?

If you get at least three "YES" responses to the checklist, you may be on to someone. Getting a kicker on a team that posts a large amount of points and also has issues near the goal line is a recipe for 100+ points or more for your fantasy kicker. Also a strong defense leads to teams going for field goals more often to extend a lead, while teams trailing will go for touchdowns (and possibly two point conversions) to catch back up on the scoreboard.

So there it is - a first cut at "Fantasy Scouting 101". I hope this not only helps you and your fantasy teams, but that it also gives you more to watch as you enjoy the NFL Preseason games that are about to be everywhere throughout August. Enjoy the games.

As always, feedback is welcome at pasquino@footballguys.com.