Good-Byes

  Posted 8/11 by Jeff Pasquino - Exclusive to Footballguys.com

I'll share a little something about myself today. I'm not exactly a conventional thinker. That's sometimes good, often times bad, but there are enough "Aha" moments where you have a revelation that might be just enough to say that all the oddball ideas that pop in your head are worth it if you can have one of those thoughts that pays off. Whether this is one of those moments is yet to be decided, but I think there is some hope.

First off, I'll set the stage for the discussion. When the NFL announced their 2009 season, we all poured over it and looked for fantasy implications. The first thing that jumped off the page was the bye weeks, as usual. Most Keeper League and Dynasty League players love to check that first so as to see if they have bye week issues in store for the coming season. That's when it dawned on myself and several others that the NFL hates us at times - no really, they do. Trust me. Otherwise, how could they not understand that these weeks where six teams have a bye week just wreak havoc with our fantasy teams?

The six teams off in one week started the first year of NBC's flex scheduling (2006), as the NFL wanted to adjust the bye weeks so that they would be done and gone by Week 11 and also so as to not have a team with a week off before Week 4. The net result of that simple math was that instead of eight weeks with four teams on a bye, the NFL would have two weeks where six teams took time off. Now, in 2009, it got even worse as in Weeks 7, 8 and 9 six teams have a bye week (and as a result only two are off in Week 10).

That prompted an interesting discussion in the Shark Pool here, and it made me think about the common question we have every year about bye weeks. Does it make good sense to collect players with the same bye weeks so as to have your team at full strength all the other games rather than patching your team for seven weeks during the year?

At first I didn't like the idea, since you are basically writing off a week on your schedule. Walking into a 13-game schedule at 0-1 already is not a great idea in my book. It gets even worse if you are in a league with fewer games or that punishes exceptionally bad performance weeks (such as the "All Play" format where you play everyone every week). All that aside, I thought I would at least see if I could come up with a recipe to do just the thing that people asked for - draft a team with all the same bye weeks.

I decided I would use three rules:

1. Focus on a complete starting lineup (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR and a TE)
2. The lineup had to be complete by Round 10 (Pick 120)
3. No reach picks

By #3 I mean that if you wanted to accomplish #1 and #2 but you had to draft a player in Round 5 that normally is still available in Rounds 6 or 7, that's off the table. We're not going to blow up our entire draft board just to get this together.

Next I decided to get all of the Top 120 picks based on recent ADP and sort them by Bye Weeks. Here is what I found:

Table 1: Top 120 Players By ADP, Sorted By Bye Weeks

Next I took a look at the positional breakdown for each Week's players.

Table 2: Bye Weeks vs. Positions

After reviewing Table 2 I decided to eliminate Week 10 (too few players) and Week 9 (no quarterback). Remember, I'm not reaching for a TE2 or QB2 or a committee to make this happen. After those weeks were eliminated I noticed that it does seem possible to pull this off if everything goes correctly, but much will depend on what draft pick you have to start and also how things start to shake out in the draft. Week 6 for example has just Frank Gore in the Top 12, so unless you want him in Round 1 and think that he is a good value at your draft spot, I would not focus on this concept.

I wanted to see if I could choose a week and mock out a reasonable attempt at this. I chose Week 4 - Arizona, Carolina, Philadelphia and Atlanta - as the only realistic chance to make this happen. The good news is that 18 different skill position players are available from these four teams, and also that they appear to be spread around the draft board enough that, given a little luck, this might be possible. Even better is the fact that all four teams were NFC playoff teams in 2008 with high-powered offenses, always a good thing for fantasy production.

Table 3 lists the 18 skill position players and the suggested rounds in which they are selected:

Table 3: Bye Week 4 Players vs. Projected Draft Round

Based on that list above, it looks like it is possible to take a RB or WR in Round 1, followed by a RB or WR in Round 2. Anquan Boldin and Tony Gonzalez are the next two selections, followed by either Donovan McNabb or Kurt Warner as quarterback. At this point five players all have Week 4 off, and the current roster contains 1 QB, 1 RB, 2 WR and a TE. Not too bad at all, and no real reaches to picking this team. The third wideout is available next in Round 6 with DeSean Jackson or in Round 7 with Steve Breaston, while an interesting RBBC possibility is available with Chris Wells (Round 6) and Tim Hightower (Round 9). Even Eagles' rookie RB LeSean McCoy could prove to be a late round selection. There are a number of ways to try this out and make it a successful draft, but remember my earlier warnings about planning for a loss in your fantasy season. Good luck.

As always, feedback is welcome at pasquino@footballguys.com.