Eyes Of the Guru - Linebackers
Posted 7/27 by John Norton - Exclusive to Footballguys.com
Hello again fantasy addicts and welcome to Part 2 of the 13th edition of the annual Eyes of the Guru preseason IDP report. If you're looking for in depth coverage on the defensive side of the ball you have come to the right place. No one covers the game better than The Footballguys and I am proud that both I and the EOTG are a part of the team. You will find nothing but fantasy football in this report. No contract talk, no police reports. Only the stuff that matters.
For the past 12 years I have gone team by team breaking down each level of the defense. The result while very in depth and hopefully informative, has been a very long read for you while consuming a great deal of my summer. In an effort to address both areas I am going to try a different format this year. Your feedback would be greatly appreciated.
For reference, when I mention where guys finished in the rankings last season, my model will be the recently updated Footballguys scoring system which is nearly identical to the North American Fantasy Football Addicts (NAFFA) league I have run for the past 13 years. Feel free to check it out. Defensive scoring in this league is the standard stuff but keep in mind rankings will vary a bit from league to league. When I mention tackle numbers, I do not lump assists and solo tackles together. Unless I make a reference one way or the other, I am talking about solo tackles.
Now without further adieu... Lets talk linebackers.
3-4 Outside Linebackers
With the exception of leagues that base IDP scoring on big play production, history tells us that outside linebackers in a 3-4 scheme are rarely great fantasy options. There are exceptions to this general rule and recently some of those exceptions have been among the most productive linebackers in the game, but when you look at how many starting 3-4 OLBs there are, the percentage of quality fantasy options from this position remains small. Simply put, the positional alignment and responsibilities are very limiting when it comes to tackle production. These players also struggle with week to week consistency. If you are interested in learning more about how positions and their responsibilities effect fantasy production, check out the archived FBG article Breaking Down NFL Defenses.
James Harrison: When Harrison put up 77 solo tackles, 8.5 sacks and rode numerous big plays to a top 5 finish in 2007 I was impressed but not convinced. When he followed that performance with a 67-34-16 mark and a top 3 finish last season (despite sitting out week 17), I had no choice but to accept the fact that he is the real deal. With LaMarr Woodley and Lawrence Timmons in the lineup, offenses simply can't commit enough blockers to shut down Harrison. He may never reach 75 tackles again but there is no reason to think he would fall short of 65 and the big plays will keep on coming in this scheme. Harrison should be drafted among the top 10 linebackers in any scoring system and the top 5 in most.
DeMarcus Ware: Any linebacker who racks up a league leading 20 sacks and forces 6 fumbles is going to be a strong fantasy option. Ware wasn't just productive, he was consistent as well with at least 1 sack in 14 games. Yet even with this stellar feat, Ware's meager 69 solo tackles were enough to keep him out of the top 5 in many scoring systems. Having averaged nearly 60 tackles and 13.5 sacks over his four year career, there is no doubt that Ware will continue to be an excellent fantasy option. The question being, can we count on nearly 70 tackles and 20 sacks every year? That might be stretching it a bit. Consider him a solid #1 starter but don't make the mistake of picking Ware ahead of guys who consistently give us 95+ tackles.
Shawne Merriman: While he certainly was not the first 3-4 OLB to have a productive fantasy season, Merriman set the stage for the recent upsurge when he recorded 49 solo tackles and 16.5 sacks in just 12 games three seasons ago. Over his four year career he has averaged 54-16-14 per 16 games. Those numbers may not be enough to garner consideration as a #1 starter but are very worthy as a #3. The problem with Merriman has been a lack of durability. He hasn't played a full schedule since his rookie campaign in 2005 and missed all of last year with a knee injury. He is healthy entering camp and has the potential to be just as productive as Ware and Harrison, but Merriman has not passed the test of time and is a more risky pick.
Calvin Pace: After spending several years in the doghouse under Dennis Green, Pace was finally given a long overdue opportunity to play full time in 2007. Working as an OLB in the 3-4 and an SLB when the 4-3 was called, he posted a very solid mark of 79-18-5.5 and finished among the top 10 outside linebackers. Pace packed his bags for New York where he started all 16 games at OLB for the Jets last season. His 62 solo tackles and 7 sacks were helped greatly by the 9 fumbles Pace either forced or recovered, and resulted in a second top 10 ranking among outside linebackers. The fumble production will be tough to repeat but Pace has established himself as one of the quality 3-4 OLBs in the game. Once he returns from the four game vacation handed down by Roger the Punisher, Pace should once again be a worthy option as depth in most leagues.
LaMarr Woodley: Woodley totaled 11.5 sacks last season and is an excellent bookend for Harrison. Unfortunately the weak outside linebacker in a 3-4 scheme lines up too far away from most running plays to be a major factor in the tackle columns. Thus Woodley's 41 solo stops in 2008 is more likely to be the norm than the exception. He will make a lot of big plays, giving him value in leagues with scoring that caters to his strength, but for most of us Woodley is no more than depth at best.
Adalius Thomas: In his last two seasons with the Ravens ( 2005 and 2006) Thomas was an animal, averaging 70 tackles and 10 sacks along with a good number of other big plays. The thing to remember however, is that Baltimore plays more of a hybrid scheme which had Thomas working as a 4-3 SLB a good deal of the time. The Patriots tried to make him an inside linebacker in 2007 and Thomas seemed lost. His production of just 58 tackles and 7 sacks reflects such. He was moved back outside last season and was on pace for 45 tackles and 10 sacks when injury shut him down after 9 games. Thomas has the ability and potential to put up useful numbers if he can stay healthy and the club can find someone to compliment him at the other OLB position. The later will likely be the bigger problem this year. Pierre Woods, Tully Banta-Cain and Shawn Crable will compete for that job. None of them are proven or come with any reason for grand expectations. Draft Thomas very late as depth in large leagues but don't stop looking for better options in the free agent pool.
Joey Porter: With just 36 solo tackles last season even the career high 16.5 sacks that Porter posted weren't enough to warrant serious consideration in most leagues. He hasn't reached 60 tackles since 2002 and there is no reason to expect it will happen this season. Determine where 45 or so tackles and 10-12 sacks fits into your scoring and slot Porter accordingly.
Anthony Spencer: With Greg Ellis out of the picture the Cowboys are expecting Spencer to step up big. The 2007 first round pick has played well versus the run but has yet to show much prowess as a pass rush threat. Playing opposite Ware will guarantee Spencer a lot of one on one blocking so the opportunity will be there. That said, he has just 4.5 sacks in two seasons despite seeing considerable playing time. Set your expectations low.
Aaron Kampman / Jeremy Thompson / Clay Matthews: With the Packers being one of the new 3-4 teams there is a great deal of uncertainty. Aaron Kampman had developed into one of the leagues best every down 4-3 ends but will now be asked to shed some weight and stand up. He's been a good soldier about the whole thing but has let it be known that he's hardly thrilled about the situation. The early word being that Kampman has not exactly taken to the new position as the coaching staff had hoped. On the other hand, Jeremy Thompson has been much better than anticipated and may be hard to keep out of the lineup. He is currently battling first round pick Clay Matthews for the starting job and reportedly hold a clear advantage heading into camp. Someone here could emerge as a quality option but at this point there is no telling who it would be.
Shaun Phillips: Phillips plays the weak support role similar to that of LaMarr Woodley in Pittsburgh. As such Phillips will be hard pressed to reach 55 solo stops and his pass rush prowess, while very good, is not going to be enough to elevate his fantasy status beyond depth in very large leagues.
Larry English: The Chargers were lost without Shawne Merriman last season and are determined that the situation will not be repeated. English will provide depth at the position while making the transition from college DE to 3-4 OLB. He may eventually be a fantasy factor but that is not likely to happen in the near future.
Robert Ayers: Heading into training camp we don't even know for certain if Ayers will be a linebacker, a defensive end or a shape shifter who works at both. He has the potential to be productive at some point and could have immediate value if your league software considers him a lineman.
Elvis Dumervil: Dumervil will be asked to make the move from DL to OLB. With 24.5 sacks over the past three seasons, he has shown the ability to rush the passer from a three point stance. When it comes to the transition and any possible value, the jury will be out until at least the end of training camp.
Vernon Gholston: There have been mixed reports about Gholston's progress. As a rookie he was slow to adapt and saw very little action. The club hopes he will mature quickly and eventually provide an upgrade over the very average Bryan Thomas. With Pace suspended, Gholston is in line to start for the first month of the season and will have a golden opportunity to take the next step. Thus far he's given us no reason for optimism.
Clark Haggans / Cody Brown: With Travis LaBoy gone, Haggans is in line for a starting job if he can hold off rookie Cody Brown. From his time with the Steelers we know that Haggans is a solid yet unspectacular player who lacks the level of talent to become a quality fantasy option. Brown was the Cardinals second round pick and is seen by the organization as the long term answer at the position. He has the potential to eventually be a James Harrison type but it's way too early to tell.
Kamerion Wimbley / David Bowens / David Veikune: One of the main reason the Romeo Crennel regime failed in Cleveland was their inability to build a successful defense. The missing link being at the OLB position. Wimbley had a strong season rookie season with 11.5 sacks but has just 8 over the last 32 games. Bowens came over with Eric Mangini from the Jets but is not much more than an experienced seat warmer with little upside. The club used a second round pick on Veikune who they hope will develop into a difference maker. There is no value here at this point.
Mike Vrable / Tamba Hali: Kansas City is another of the new 3-4 teams but this club has much less to work with at OLB than the others. Vrable came over as an extra in the Matt Cassel trade. The 34 year old brings leadership and knowledge of the new scheme but those will likely be his biggest contributions. He did total 54 solo tackles and 10.5 sacks a couple of years back but that was with the rest of the Patriots supporting cast. Anything more than 50 tackles and 5-6 sacks would be a big surprise this year. The club will try to transition Hali from DE to OLB. Hali recorded 7.5 sacks in each of his first two seasons but dropped to just 3 last year after Jared Allen left. He's given us little to be excited about at this point.
Manny Lawson / Parys Haralson: When San Francisco decided to go to a 3-4 one of the first things they did was to use a first round pick on Manny Lawson to anchor the OLB position. That has not worked out very well for the club thus far. As a rookie in 2006 he totaled just 3 sacks in 16 starts. Lawson's 2007 lasted just two games before he was lost to a knee injury. He returned last season to again total only 3 sacks. It's possible that being two years removed from the injury will make a difference in 2009 but it sure looks more likely that Lawson is going to be a bust. Parys Haralson had somewhat of a breakout season in 2008 when he put up a career best 8.5 sacks. Unfortunately his 28 solo tackles kept him well short of any fantasy value at all. In fact his two years as a starter have produced just 55 total solo tackles.
Matt Roth / Jason Taylor: The word out of Miami heading into camp is that Matt Roth will start at OLB opposite Joey Porter with Jason Taylor relieving him on passing downs. Don't be surprised however, if Taylor claims an every down role by the time the team breaks camp. If this comes to pass look for numbers similar to the 46-9-11 (with plenty of big plays) that he posted two years ago from the same position in Miami.
Pick of the Litter
Patrick Willis: It's hard to argue with anyone who sees Willis as the top IDP option in the fantasy game. As a rookie in 2007 he put up an almost unheard of 137 solo tackles and 4.5 sacks enroute to being the #1 overall fantasy defender. The team improved around him last season when his 109 stops were second only to Jon Beason and Willis was the #2 overall LB. His consistency is impeccable as Willis has reached double digit fantasy points in 21 of his 32 NFL games, falling short of 7 only twice. The only slight concern here is that he has not established himself as a standout in the big play columns. Last season Willis recorded just 1 sack, 1 forced fumble, 1 recovery and 1 interception. As the team continues to improve we should see his tackle production level off at around 100 solos per season. At the same time an improved supporting cast should allow for more big play opportunity. Willis is as close as it gets to a sure thing and should be the first linebacker off the board.
Jon Beason: When the Panthers used their third round pick on Dan Connor last season, there were some concerns that Beason might be moved to WLB. After his stellar 2008 that included a league best 110 solo tackles, there is no chance he will be moving. Instead the coaching staff is considering moving Connor to SLB. Beason has racked up 216 tackles over his two pro seasons and has solidified himself as one of the best young middle backers in the game. Like the aforementioned Patrick Willis, Beason has room to improve in the big play columns. Although he did show improvement last season when he accounted for 4 takeaways and 8 passes defended, Beason has yet to record a sack or force a fumble in the professional level. History tells us that linebackers tend to make more big plays as they mature and he is just entering the prime of his career. Beason has finished among the top 10 twice already and should be there several more times over the next 10 years, starting with 2009.
Barrett Ruud: Ruud wasn't handed the reigns right out of college but after spending his first two seasons as a backup he became a starter in 2007. That season Ruud worked mostly in a two down role, coming off the field in passing situations. His 83-31-0 with 7 fumbles forced or recovered and 2 picks, still ranked him among the top 15 inside linebackers. In 2008 he finally emerged from the shadow of Derrick Brooks, landing an every down role and becoming the centerpiece of the Bucs defense. Ruud racked up 102 solo tackles while adding 3 sacks and three takeaways for his first top 5 finish. It won't be his last. The Tampa-2 scheme of former defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin featured the WLB position as it's playmaker. Both Kiffin and his scheme are now gone and Ruud will play under Jim Bates who coached the Dolphins defense from 2000 to 2004. During Bates time in Miami, Zach Thomas was a perennial top 5 LB averaging better than 100 solo stops. Ruud's ability to add big play production to his excellent tackle numbers could make him the fantasy game's top LB in 2009. At worst he's a shoe in for the top 10.
D.J. Williams: With some players all you need to do is look at the numbers. With Williams you need to know the story that goes along with them. At a glance it doesn't look good that Williams has exceeded 75 solo stops just once in five seasons as a pro but keep in mind that his talent was wasted at SLB early in his career. The move to MLB in 2007 resulted in 106 solo tackles, a handful of big plays and a top 5 ranking in most any scoring system. Williams was moved to WLB last season and was on pace to go 99-37-3.5 before an injury forced him to miss 5 games. He will change positions yet again in 2009 and will lineup at right inside linebacker in the Broncos 3-4 scheme under new defensive coordinator Mike Nolan. Take note Nolan was the head coach in San Francisco when Patrick Willis piled up 137 solo stops in the same position. Williams is the best player on a bad defense that is in transition to a new scheme. His skill set should make him a perfect fit and there will be relatively little competition for tackles. If the Denver offense doesn't help keep their defense off the field, Williams has a serious shot at leading the league in tackles this year.
DeMeco Ryans: After putting up 225 solo tackles and a pair of top 3 finishes in his first two seasons, Ryans dropped out of the top 10 in 2008. Be careful not to let his down year scare you off. The biggest contributor to his drop off was the sore ankle that Ryans played through during much of the season. An injury that would have kept many players on the sideline for a month or more. Ryans put up 18 solo stops in the Texans first two games before being injured in game three. Starting with that game and running through week nine he averaged fewer than 4 solo stops per game. The numbers picked up a little after that but the production we had come to expect never fully materialized. He will be healthy in 2009 and should once again approach the triple digit tackle mark. If there is any concern with Ryans it's the improved talent level of his surrounding cast. The addition of Brian Cushing in particular, could take a little bite out of Ryans opportunities. That said, Ryans remains one of the games best young talents at the position and should return to the top 10 if not the top 5 this season.
Jonathan Vilma: After spending a couple of years miscast in the Jets 3-4 scheme, the move to New Orleans and return to a 4-3 defense was just what Vilma needed. In the last two seasons that he has worked at MLB in a 4-3 (2005 and 2008) Vilma has yielded 226 solo stops, 79 assists, a sack and a half, 6 forced fumbles, 4 recoveries, a pair of interceptions 12 passes defended and two top 6 fantasy rankings. Not to mention that his #6 finish last season came after he missed the second half of 2007 due to major knee surgery. Unlike last year, Vilma will be fully healthy entering 2009 and is in a golden situation. It would be a surprise if he doesn't reach the 100 tackle plateau this year.
Karlos Dansby: When people think about stud linebackers Dansby is usually not one of the first guys that comes to mind, but maybe he should be. He is a proven big play threat with 24 sacks, 19 fumbles forced or recovered and 9 interceptions in five pro seasons. Working as a 4-3 SLB for most of his first four years kept Dansby's tackle production down. The Coaching staff unleashed his potential with last year's move to ILB in the 3-4 and WLB when the club lines up in a 4-3. The result was a mark of 94-25-3.5 with 7 takeaways and a top 5 ranking in most scoring systems. If there is a concern with Dansby it would be durability. He's played through some nagging injuries over his career that have hampered his production at times, but has missed only 6 total games with 2008 marking the first time he has completed a full 16 game schedule. Last season was no fluke and at age 27 he is in the prime of his career. In fact we may not yet have seen Dansby's best.
London Fletcher: There are few linebacker in the game who could post 96 solo stops in a season and have that looked at as a sign of possible decline. Fletcher is one of those few. 2008 was the first time since 2004 that he failed to reach triple digits and he has given us at least 94 every year since Moby Dick was a guppy (2001 if you're counting). The only reason Fletcher doesn't sit higher on this list is that he is 34 years old and is playing on a very good defense that could ultimately limit his number of opportunities. Redskins defenders were credited with just 675 solo tackles all of last season. No other team had fewer than 703. On top of being a tackling machine Fletcher is a big play threat with 6.5 sacks and a hand in 15 turnovers in the past 4 seasons. Fletcher hasn't missed a game in eight seasons and still has a couple of years left in the tank. He will continue to be the leader of this defense for this year and probably beyond.
Kirk Morrison: In four professional seasons Morrison has never failed to reach at least 90 tackles and he hasn't finished outside the top 10 since his rookie season when he played on the weak side. He fell just one short of 100 solo stops last season, with a low of 96 since moving to MLB three years back. It doesn't get any more consistent than Morrison who has not missed a game in four years, has posted 7 or more fantasy point in 41 of his last 48 games and has reached double digits in 34 of those contests. If there is any concern at all with him it's that his big play production slumped in 2008 and the scheme of new defensive coordinator John Marshall may not help Morrison to rebound in that area. He's falls slightly short of elite status but is a quality LB1 in any scoring system.
Curtis Lofton: Having totaled just 67-27-1 in his rookie season, Lofton is obviously not listed here for what he has done but rather for the confidence I have in what he will do. He held a two down role most of last season but showed the coaching staff all they needed to see. The Falcons let long time defensive leader Keith Brooking walk so they could build their new defense around Lofton. He's physical, smart and has the intangibles that could help him to become one of the best in the game for the next decade. Don't be surprised when he closes in on triple digit solo tackles this season.
Ray Lewis: It has been five seasons since Ray Lewis last reached triple digit solo tackles but that hasn't stopped him from finishing among the top 12 inside linebackers in each of the past three years. Since 2006 Lewis has averaged a solid 90-34-4 per 16 games played, but it's his penchant for the big play that adds enough punch to keep him among the best in the game. Over that span Lewis has intercepted 7 passes, forced or recovered 8 fumbles and defended 27 passes. At age 34 he is no longer the perennial top five player he once was and many owners will drop him down their draft boards based on the premise that he has struggled to stay healthy of late. Let them do that if they choose but keep in mind that he's missed just 4 of the Ravens last 48 regular season games and none of their playoff games over the past three years. Not to mention that he played all 16 contests in 2008. There is always an increased risk with older players but Lewis can still get it done and still has a couple of years left in the tank. Maybe the best part is that he can often be had at a bargain price on draft day.
Quality Second Starters
E.J. Henderson: A strong argument could be made for putting Henderson in that top category but there are a couple of things keeping me from doing so. Most importantly is the fact that he's coming off an injury that scares me a little. Henderson has reportedly recovered from the dislocated toes that landed him on IR last season but I know from experience that an injury of that nature can weaken the joints and make them easier to re-injure. The other factor being that the Vikings are so strong versus the run that they chase many teams into passing mode early in games, which could ultimately limit Henderson's tackle opportunities. Some people might point to the fact that he's only exceeded 80 solo stops once in his career, but I consider that a non-factor. Prior to his breakout 2007 season when he posted 95 tackles and 5.5 sacks, The Vikings coaches had him bouncing from one position to another and completely failed to use him properly. In 2007 he was finally move to his natural MLB position on a permanent basis and the defense was built to take advantage of his strength. Target Henderson as a second starter with big upside, but don't be disappointed if you have to grab him as your #1.
Lance Briggs: Ideally Briggs should be targeted as a strong LB2, but like Henderson, an argument can be made to include him among the upper echelon at the position. He was one of just 13 linebackers to post 90 or more solo tackles last season when he placed in the top 10 in many scoring systems. He's a very productive player but there are a few considerations that hold him back a little in my eyes, the first being consistency. Over the past two seasons Briggs has averaged nearly 6 solo stops a game but has totaled 4 or fewer tackles in 11 of 30 contests. Then there is the stingy Chicago stats keepers who don't award many assists. Briggs has never been credited with more than 24 in a season. Another thing that concerns me a bit is that if Urlacher is right this year, he will take a much bigger slice of the pie than he did last season. Finally there is the anticipation that the Bears defense will be much better as a whole, which should mean fewer defensive snaps and a little less opportunity for all. Don't mistake these comments as my being down on Briggs as that's not the case at all. In fact there are a lot of reason why you shouldn't be too disappointed with him as your #1. Were it not for a pair of games missed in 2007 he would be on a run of three consecutive seasons with 90+ solo stops and since 2005 he has consistently posted 7-9 marks a year in the big play columns. He's nearly certain to finish among the top 20 and very likely to land in the top 15 again this season.
Stephen Cooper: Depending on how astute your competition is, Cooper may be a guy you can steel on draft day. When looking at his numbers from last season many owners will overlook the very important fact that he was suspended over the first four games. From this perspective his 72-26-1.5 and 4 interceptions takes on a new light. Average those numbers out over 16 games and it looks more like 96-35-2. It's very possible that this time next year I will be talking about Cooper being one to the top 10. The main reason I am reluctant to put him there now is that I want to see him do it again when the Chargers are playing well. Some of last year's big production may be directly related to the horrible season the club endured. Only the Chiefs, Seahawks and Colts defenses were on the field for more than the 822 snaps San Diego defenders faced in 2009. Target Cooper as a strong second starter with the upside to break into the top 10.
Jerod Mayo: Of all the players listed among the #2 starters here, Mayo may be the most likely to exceed expectations. As a rookie he was one of just four players to reach the 100 solo tackle plateau, and the first Patriot to hit that mark since Ted Johnson. Only a glaring lack of big plays (1 FF and 1 FR, no picks, no sacks) kept Mayo from a top 10 finish in 2008. History tells us that young players are often short in the big play columns until they (and their coaches) reach a comfort zone that enables them to anticipate better and/or take more chances. Mayo has been installed as the Patriots enforcer at the ILB position where he is an every down player and should be their perennial tackle leader for the next several years. He will only get better and if he can become a big play threat Mayo could soon take his place among the fantasy elite.
Stewart Bradley: Bradley earned the starting MLB job in his second pro season and lived up to expectations by leading the club with a solid 86 solo tackles. At 254 pounds he's a physical run stuffer in the Jeremiah Trotter mold but is much better in coverage that Trotter ever was. As a result the Eagles seem to have found the anchor they needed for the middle of their defense and we have a solid and dependable every down linebacker with the potential to become a quality #1 starter. As pointed out previously, young players often don't make a big play impact until they have settled in. Bradley is not exactly the exception to the rule but he did record a sack, force and recover a fumble, pick off a pass and defend 6 passes 2009, leaving us with plenty of reason for optimism. I've seen more than enough of Bradley to be comfortable with him as a high quality second starter and I believe that he has not yet played his best or most productive football.
Brian Urlacher: Excluding the injury shortened 2004 season, 2008 was the least productive of Urlacher's career. He set career lows in tackles (79) and assists (14), failed to record a single sack for only the second time in his career, and didn't force a single fumble. In fact two interceptions and one fumble recovery were the extent of his big play contributions. All of this is very uncharacteristic for a player who had finished among the top ten middle linebackers in four of his previous five full seasons, but there are some understandable reasons for last year's decline. A little of the blame can be directed at the defensive tackle positions where injuries and less than stellar play resulted in blockers getting to Urlacher more often. A much bigger portion of the problem can be related to health issues. Urlacher had neck surgery after the 2007 season and it seemed to make him tentative, especially early in the season. He didn't play with the same reckless abandon as in year past. Urlacher has battled a host of nagging injuries over the past couple of years, most notably a bad back. The DT situation has been addressed and Urlacher is now two years removed from the neck surgery. At age 31 and having battled injuries in recent years as he has, it's likely that Urlacher will never again be the perennial top five LB he once was. There is some risk to be considered, however, if his confidence returns as it should, and the Bears defense returns to form as it should, Urlacher will bounce back nicely and be a very solid second starter.
Gary Brackett: Over the past few seasons Gary Brackett has been one of the most under rated fantasy linebackers in the game. Since becoming a starter in 2005 he's averaged 93 solo stops per 16 starts and has had a hand in 14 takeaways. Last season Brackett was on pace for a mark of 95-38 when a broken fibula shut him down after 12 games and kept him from a 4th consecutive top 15 finish. The leg has healed and he will be ready for training camp. Brackett's consistency has been impeccable to the extent that prior to the injury he recorded at least 9 fantasy points in every contest last season. In fact, with the exception of the final two games of 2007 when he was rested in the second half, he's totaled fewer than 7.5 only once in two seasons. There is not much chance that Brackett will land in the top 10 in 2009 but there is probably less chance that he will fall short of the top 20.
Lofa Tatupu: Tatupu is coming off the least productive season of his career but don't let that scare you off. The reason he totaled just 69-24-0 is easy to pinpoint. Tatupu battled a series of nagging injuries all last season, the most impeding of which being a very tender groin. Throw in a sprained knee and a thumb injury that required surgery after the season and it's actually impressive that he even played in 15 games. Even when healthy Tatupu is not a tackling machine. Over his first three seasons he averaged 88-25-2.5, but made up for the slightly less than stellar tackle numbers with big play production. His 7 fumbles forced or recovered and 8 interceptions helped Tatupu to three consecutive top 15 finishes from 2005 to 2007. Some may look at rookie Aaron Curry as a guy who could take a bite out of Tatupu's production, but I don't see that as a problem. Curry is replacing Julian Peterson so it's not like there is suddenly a huge upgrade at the position. Tatupu didn't miss a game over his first three seasons and there is little concern that he's suddenly become injury prone. He's had time to heal and will be 100% heading into camp. At age 26 he's just entering the prime of his career and should return to the top 20 this season if not the top 15.
Justin Durant: Jacksonville's leading tackler last season was DB Brian Williams with only 74 solo stops. Expect things to be much different in 2009. After shuffling their linebackers around due to injury and poor coaching decisions all last season, the Jaguars finally arrived at the realization that Durant is their best, and moved him to the middle where he belongs. With all the shuffling around it's not much use to look at most of last years numbers. In fact the only ones I will reference are 6-2 and 7-2. Those being the tackle numbers Durant recorded in weeks 16 and 17 when he started at MLB. During his first two seasons Durant has been productive whenever given an opportunity. He reached 5 or more solo tackles in 7 contests last season despite not holding a starting job until week 9 and working at WLB until the final two games. Durant has been a dynasty favorite for some of the FBG staff since the Jags drafted him in round 2 a couple of years back. Now that he's finally getting his chance, we expect big things from him. To get an idea how big we can look back at the history of the MLB position under Jack Del Rio. Peterson joined the club in 2004 and in his first two seasons was a top 5 MLB averaging 94-35-5.5. He was on pace for similar numbers through 10 games in 2007 when injury struck and was on pace for 86 solo stops last season before being benched. The point being that despite what last year's totals suggest, the MLB position in Jacksonville can be a very productive one with a guy like Durant at the position. At the least he should be an excellent #3 starter with upside to break the top 15.
Paul Posluszny: As a rookie in 2007 Posluszny came out of the gate strong, posting a 14-8 mark in his first two games before being lost to a broken arm in his third. He opened last season pretty strongly as well but seemed to fade late in the season as young players sometimes do. He fell short of 5 solo tackles in six games in 2008, with five of those games coming after week ten. In the end his mark of 87-23-0 with 3 takeaways was enough for a top 20 finish. A second full season will make a big difference for Posluszny who should now be able to avoid that late season slip. While there is little doubt that he will be very productive for us this season, the future has some gray area. There were rumors prior to the draft that the coaching staff may not be completely sold on him as their MLB of the future and would consider moving him to WLB depending on who they drafted. In the end the only addition at MLB was journeyman backup Pat Thomas. Posluszny is safe for this season at least and will have plenty of opportunity to prove himself in a target rich environment. He's a young player with upside, however, from what I have seen thus far I am not expecting him to exceed value as a solid second starter.
James Laurinaitis: People are always searching for "this year's Patrick Willis or DeMeco Ryans", guys who exploded for 120+ solo tackles as rookies. We can never expect that kind of production from a player, especially a rookie, but Laurinaitis is my early candidate to come close. He was incredibly productive at Ohio state including 130 tackles, 4 sacks and a pair of interceptions as a senior in 2008. Just as important is the situation he goes to. The Rams are clearly a team in rebuilding mode and as such the defense is going to spend a lot of time on the field. The Rams were one of eight defenses credited with more than 800 solo tackles in 2008 and you simply can't overestimate the value of opportunity. Then there is the fact that Laurinaitis will not have a lot of competition for tackles. Will Witherspoon is a quality player who will move back to WLB this season but no one else in the front 7 stands out. Free safety O.J. Atogwe was the team's second leading tackler last season. There will be plenty of opportunity for all. Despite being unproven Laurinaitis should at worst post in the area of 90 solo stops and a few big plays, making him a quality second starter with loads of upside.
Bradie James: James lands among the #2 starters based on last year's breakout and the fact that he totaled at least 11.5 fantasy point in nine of the Cowboys last ten games. However, of all the players in this category he comes with the least confidence. No one can argue his 2009 numbers of 80-36-8 with a hand in 5 fumble takeaways and 4 passes defended, but will he be able to improve on or even repeat that production? James has been a starter since 2005 yet in the three seasons prior to last he never reached 75 tackles, combined for 5.5 sacks and never finished better than 17th among inside linebackers. So was his #7 finish last year a breakout or a fluke? Circumstances fell his way last season when Zach Thomas proved to have less in the tank than the Dallas coaching staff had expected, and injuries in the secondary weakened the clubs nickel and dime packages. As a result James became an every down player for the first time in his career. Since coverage is not a strength for the physical run stuffer, the coaching staff wisely and successfully elected to use him as an extra pass rusher. Thomas has been replaced by Keith Brooking and the secondary is healthy and has improved depth. So will James have the same role in 2009? I believe that Brooking has more left at this point than Thomas did a year ago, and Brooking is pretty solid in coverage. If James is bumped from the every down role his value takes a huge hit. It worked for them last year so until there is a reason for change I have to think the Cowboys will pick up right where they left off with James. We will however, need to keep close tabs on this situation throughout training camp.
Solid Third Starters
Thomas Davis: When Davis shifted to the weak side last season it was expected that his box score production would benefit. When he became one of only 13 linebackers to record 90+ solo stops it was an even more pleasant surprise than anticipated for those who gambled on him with a late round pick. Davis made his way into the top 20 for the first time in 2008 and may well be deserving of recognition as an LB2, especially if you look at how his production broke down last season. Overall Davis was 92-21-3.5 with a pair of forced fumbles, a recovery and 6 passes defended. His first eight games yielded 40-10-0 a FF, a FR and 2 passes defended. In the final eight games Davis was 52-11-3.5 with a recovery and 4 PD. Maybe this was just a coincidence but it's more likely that he reached a comfort zone that allowed for more production down the stretch. The numbers suggest that Davis would be a viable second starter and I certainly wouldn't argue with that. I look at him as an excellent #3 based on the fact that one good season does not always guarantee a second, and the fact that despite his 2008 numbers many owners don't seem to be very high on him. In early drafts this season I have seen him fall to the late middle rounds when many owners are taking their third starters.
Derrick Johnson: It's hard to predict what Johnson will do in his role at ILB in the Chiefs new 3-4 scheme. He's a player with a ton of potential based on the circumstance. Johnson will line up at the weak ILB position that is generally the most productive in 3-4 schemes. He's on a club in the early stages of a rebuilding process but has quality linemen in front of him who should do a solid job of occupying blockers and keeping him clean to make plays. There is no doubt he will have ample opportunity. On the other hand Johnson has never played on the inside at the pro level and has never posted more than 83 tackles from his WLB position. His big play history is respectable with 9.5 sacks, 9 forced fumbles, 3 recoveries and three picks over his four seasons. One thing that has hurt Johnson's value in the past is a lack of assists. For reasons unknown he has never been credited with more than 18 in a season. I have never been a fan of Johnson's but there is a chance he could win me over by excelling in this situation. At worst he should provide us a solid option as a third starter with #2 potential.
Channing Crowder: With Zach Thomas moving on Crowder finally got his chance to be the man in the middle for Miami. Despite posting strong tackle numbers his debut as the headliner was somewhat of a disappointment. In the tackle columns Crowder's 92-21 were identical to those of Thomas Davis but lacking big play production landed Crowder well outside the top 20. As the lead ILB in the Dolphins 3-4 scheme he needs to, and should be more of a difference maker. Unfortunately Crowder doesn't have a history of being that kind of player. Last season's big play production amounted to just one forced and one recovered fumble. In four years as a starter he has forced 3 and recovered 3 fumbles, has just a sack and a half and has never intercepted a pass. In his defense Crowder's first three seasons were spent as a two down player in the shadow of Thomas and last season was his first in the new position. Maybe a second season and a level of comfort will make a difference. 90+ tackles is quality production for a third starter and there is some upside with Crowder.
Chad Greenway: With a mark of 85-30-5, 3 forced fumbles and 5 passes defended, Greenway finished as a top 15 linebacker in many leagues a year ago. He has proven to be a quality option for us and a playmaker for the Vikings. There are however, some concerns that lead to his being ranked among the third starters here. The return of E.J. Henderson at MLB is a major one. With Henderson out last year both Greenway and Ben Leber became every down players. Henderson will take a bite out of everyone's tackle opportunity which will undoubtedly hurt Greenway at least a little. The other concern is what the Vikings were doing with Greenway and Leber before Henderson's injury. There was discussion of moving Greenway to SLB and/or sending him to the bench on passing downs to give giving Leber some snaps in nickel packages. In fact both of these scenarios played out at times early in the season. Greenway has LB2 potential if the club allows him the opportunity, but there is enough risk that we should look at him as a #3 and hope they make the right decisions.
Ernie Sims: One of the most frustrating and confusing statistics to come out of the 2008 season was an 0-16 Lions club with a leading tackler that had only 81 solo stops. I'm not sure how that happens but I know that both Sims and I are very happy that change has come in a big way. Sims never quite fit in the think first Tampa-2 scheme and the new coaching staff plans to turn him loose and let him be the kind of playmaker that made him the 9th overall pick in 2006. He was a top 15 LB in 2007 when he put up 96 solo stops and a handful of big plays, so we know the potential is there. The Lions have made huge strides when it comes to improving the talent level on defense. While this might cut down the number of opportunities a little, it should ultimately help Sims produce better numbers, particularly in the big play columns. All things considered, target him as a third starter with a lot of upside. Don't be surprised if he out performs your #2.
James Farrior: At 89-44-3.5 in 2008, Farrior is coming off one of the best fantasy seasons of his career. The question being can we expect him to repeat? Over the course of his seven seasons with the Steelers Farrior has been very inconsistent from year to year. Three times since 2002 he's posted 85+ tackles but on three other occasions he failed to reach 70. One place he has been consistent is in the big play columns. Over the past five seasons Farrior has recorded 19.5 sacks and 23 takeaways. He's 34 years old and will soon be looking over his shoulder at Lawrence Timmons, but Farrior still has a year or two of solid production in the tank. At this point in his career we know there is not much chance for upside and there is enough risk that we can't count on him as more than a solid #3.
Clint Session: Session may actually fit better under the sleepers heading since a lot of owners will be surprised with is production this season. Between the history of quality tackle numbers from the Colts WLB position and what we saw from Session last year, we best not be sleeping on this guy. This position has produced 90+ tackles guys multiple times dating all the way back to Mike Peterson's 104 in 2002, followed by David Thornton with 112, Cato June at 96 and Freddie Keiaho who was on pace for 90+ through 14 games last season. Session's 2009 numbers weren't particularly impressive at a glance, but despite lining up on the strong side he had several productive games including 10 in which he posted 5 or more solo stops. The coaches have shifted him to WLB for two reasons. First and foremost they believe he is an improvement from a physical perspective over Keiaho, and secondly so they can get Phillip Wheeler on the field at the SLB position he was drafted to play. Session will pair with Gary Brackett in the nickel package which will open up opportunity for a quality big play contribution as well. Session will make a quality third starter with the potential to break into the top 20.
Will Witherspoon: Prior to struggling with injuries to both shoulders last season Witherspoon turned in a pair of top 15 finishes the Rams MLB. That job now belongs to the rookie but don't write Witherspoon off completely. He was productive as a WLB with the Panthers early in his career and is actually better suited to play that position where he can better use his speed and athleticism. Coincidentally, while Witherspoon battled injuries last season it was Pisa Tinoisamoa who led the club in tackles from the WLB position. The Rams are rebuilding and have a long way to go. It's unlikely that Witherspoon will approach the 100 tackle mark that he hit a couple of years back but he could approach 90 and challenge Laurinaitis for the team tackle lead. Witherspoon is an every down player who adds a history of quality big play numbers as well. He's healthy entering training camp and is a safe bet to be a solid third starter at the least. It would not be a surprise to see him slip into the top 20.
Quality Depth
Thomas Howard: Over his three pro seasons Howard has been steady and consistent if unspectacular. He's averaged about 82 solo stops with a best of 88 coming in his rookie campaign. There may not be much upside when it comes to tackle production but with 11 takeaways over the past two seasons, Howard has shown enough big play prowess to significantly boost his value. He can be counted on for about 80 tackles and 4-6 big plays. Numbers worthy of backup status in most leagues or a third starter in some deeper leagues.
Akeem Jordan: At a glance Jordan's 53-8 with two fumble recoveries in 2008 doesn't seem like much. As the late Paul Harvey would say, "now for the rest of the story". Jordan didn't become a starter until week 12. Prior to that he was a situational replacement and a backup to Omar Gaither. Jordan and Gaither combined to go 104-16-2.5 on the season. Granted there was some overlap in there when both players were on the field together but that was not often. In his six regular season starts Jordan averaged nearly six and a half tackles a game. A pace that would put him into triple digits if he were able to sustain it for a full season. Thus far he has shown little knack for the big play but then his opportunity has been limited. Jordan will enter camp as the starter and is expected to hold off any competition that might sprout. If this is the case he could challenge Stewart Bradley for the team tackle lead. Draft Jordan as a backup with upside that could make him a third starter or even better.
Gerald Hayes: Hayes is a pretty good MLB who could be a quality second starter in a different situation. Unfortunately his varying role in the Cardinals hybrid scheme lowers his overall value and makes him tough to call on a week to week basis. When the Cards line up in a 4-3 Hayes is the middle backer. When they go to a base 3-4 he lines up as the strong ILB, a role which makes him second fiddle to Karlos Dansby when it comes to box score production. Making things worse, he leaves the field all together in some of the nickel packages. Without knowing the defensive game plan from week to week, starting Hayes can be a hit or miss proposition. In 2008 he had three games in which he posted fewer than 5 fantasy points, reaching 9 or more nine times. Unless you're in a very deep league Hayes is not a guy you want to start every week but he is certainly worth taking a chance on as a spot starter on any given week.
Mike Peterson: The Jaguars made Peterson a scapegoat last season when he was benched for a few weeks before returning to the lineup as an injury replacement late in the year. He may not be the player he was earlier in his career but the situation in Jacksonville pretty much proved that he can still play. Peterson was on pace for a respectable 87 tackles before landing in the doghouse. He returns to a familiar role at WLB for the Falcons where his experience and leadership will help solidify a young defense. Barring and injury to Curtis Lofton, Peterson is not going to lead the club in tackles, and to a large extent his value as a quality backup depends on his ability to beat out Stephen Nicholas for a role in the nickel package. Pass defense has never been the strength of his game but he's far from a liability in coverage and the experience factor should give him a substantial edge. We will be keeping an eye on the developments in Atlanta during camp but at this point Peterson seems like a strong candidate for 80+ tackles and a few big plays.
Antonio Pierce: His numbers over the past two seasons may not suggest it but Pierce remains a very solid middle linebacker. After posting a career best 109 solo tackles with the Giants in 2006, he hasn't been able to crack 80 in either of the past two seasons. Nagging injuries have been a contributing factor as he has battled ankle, back, shoulder and quad problems over the past two seasons. Another significant factor being the quality play of the defense in general and particularly the stellar play of the defensive line. Only eight clubs recorded fewer than the Giants 738 solo tackles last season and the DL accounted for a whopping 193 of those. The defense as a unit and particularly the front four may be even better in 2009, so a return to prosperity seems highly unlikely for Pierce. He should again approach the 80 tackle mark with enough big play production to make him adequate depth for most of us. There may be a little more to this story for dynasty owners. Speculation has it that this could be the final year in New York for Pierce. He's 31 years old and still has gas in the tank so it might pay off buy low and sit tight. He could prove very productive in a different situation next season.
Keith Bulluck: Bulluck's string of five consecutive seasons with 99+ tackles and top 3 finishes ended when his numbers plummeted in 2007. The IDP world wanted to write it off as a mirage but Bulluck didn't bounce back as we had hoped last season. In fact it got worse as he failed to record an interception for the first time in his nine year career. He's only 32 years old and we know the potential for big numbers is still there, but after two seasons of 75 or fewer tackles, Bulluck can't be looked at as any more than depth in large leagues.
Julian Peterson: Peterson's role with the Lions projects to be very similar to the one he held in Seattle. He'll line up at SLB on early downs, remaining on the field in nickel packages where expectations are that he'll be used mostly as a pass rusher. Peterson has never been a big tackle guy and has earned his large pay checks in the big play columns. His three seasons in Seattle yielded 24.5 sacks, 9 forced fumbles, 4 recoveries and 3 picks. The Lions hope he can pick up right where he left off. If he does Peterson will continue to be a little inconsistent on a week to week basis but should be very worthy as a bye week fill in with potential to go off big on any given week.
Takeo Spikes: Spikes is a veteran player on the downside of a solid career and is working next to one to the games best tackling machines. There is not much upside in the player or situation but Spikes can still be a viable spot fill in if you play the match ups right. He only reached 61-35 in the tackle columns in 2008 but recorded 7 takeaways, 6 passes defended and a sack, posting double digit fantasy points in seven games.
Rocky McIntosh: If he can stay healthy McIntosh has the potential to be an 80+ tackle guy with 4-6 big plays. That could be a tall order though. He's spent the past two years battling a degenerative knee and a bum shoulder. Some have compared the knee problem to the one that ended the career of Terrell Davis. It was the shoulder however, that gave him the most trouble last season. The knee could flare up at any time but the shoulder should be healed. McIntosh started fairly strong in 2008, averaging better than 5 solo stops over the first 5 games. He managed to limp through the entire season without missing any games but the injury was limiting and eventually caused him to lose snaps to H.B. Blades in the nickel packages. With rookie Brian Orakpo in the mix it's hard to say what role McIntosh will have by the time camp breaks. An educated guess is that Orakpo will put his hand down as a rush end in passing situations leaving McIntosh and Fletcher as the nickel linebackers. The bottom line is that McIntosh might be worthy as a last round flier who could out produce his draft position substantially.
Sleepers
Lawrence Timmons: Timmons is by far my favorite sleeper at the LB position this year. The Steelers used the 15th overall pick on him two years ago with the vision that he would eventually be the centerpiece and leader of their defense. An injury stunted his growth as a rookie but Timmons worked his way onto the field last season and looked to be everything the organization had hoped he would be. He played so well in fact that former starter Larry Foote asked for a trade this offseason even before the announcement was made that Timmons would replace him in the lineup full time. Foote and Timmons shared the position last season with Timmons seeing action in passing situations early and having a slightly increased role down the stretch and into the playoffs. The two combined to go 77-51-6.5 from the position. In a starting role I believe Timmons will exceed those numbers as the coaches will find ways to keep him on the field in nearly every situation. His combination of pass rush and coverage skills will give DC Dick LeBeau a lot more options than he had with Foote, and will result in the Steelers staying in their base defense more often in short passing situations. Timmons is being groomed to take over for 34 year old James Farrior as the play caller and leader in the huddle. It may not be this year but one day soon Timmons will be THE every down ILB in the Steelers defense. He's smart, fast, athletic, has great cover skills, can rush the passer and is young. Even if he doesn't pile up great tackle numbers Timmons is going to contribute a significant number of big plays. I believe he will emerge as a strong second starter for IDP owners this year and a solid #1 in the near future.
Brian Cushing: I understand the general logic that has Cushing falling so far in early rookie and dynasty drafts but I have to wonder what people are thinking. Granted he has been plugged in at the traditionally box score challenged SLB position and he'll line up next to DeMeco Ryans who is one of the best young middle backers in the game. That said, does anyone remember that Zach Diles (who was a rookie) was 47-19-1 with a forced fumble and a pick in eight games at the same position last season? Had he not suffered a broken leg he may have pushed the triple digit solo envelope. I'm not predicting that Cushing will put up 100 tackles but lets face it, the Texans didn't use a first round pick on him to see him play only on early downs. He's more talented than Diles and is all but sure to have an every down role right away. It would be a surprise to me if he doesn't produce numbers at the least worthy of a third starter. Best of all he can be had at a bargain price in the late rounds.
Keith Brooking: I talked about Brooking a little bit when covering Bradie James but let me expand. Brooking not only played weak inside LB under Wade Phillips in Atlanta a few years back, he had the two most productive years of his career in Phillips scheme posting 111 and 126 solo tackles in back to back seasons. Brooking returns to that same familiar position in Dallas. He knows the scheme so there will be no learning curve, and while he is not the same player he was the first time in this scheme, Brooking has more in the tank than many give him credit for and much more than Zach Thomas last year. The key to this whole situation comes down to who stays on the field in passing situations. James is a better pass rusher but Brooking is better in coverage. Something has to give as I don't foresee any way for both to stay on the field full time. It's a situation we will be watching closely when camp opens but the way I see it Brooking is a strong candidate for 85+ tackles and enough value to be a quality third starter. He'll be available late.
Larry Foote: Yes there is a new regime in Detroit but does anyone remember Earl Holmes and/or Paris Lenon? Both of these guys were marginal starters for other clubs before coming to Detroit where they started and were fairly productive for a few years. Larry Foote falls into the same mold but is a better player at this point than either of these guys were when they joined the team. The Lions drafted DeAndre Levy who could eventually claim the MLB job but is a project at this point. Foote brings leadership and stability to the position for the short term and if he plays well, could allow the club to address more pressing needs over the next 2-3 years. He's known as a run stuffer but is not a major liability in coverage and has a chance to land an every down role, especially if the coaching staff follows through with recent reports that they will use Julian Peterson as a rush end in passing situations. At the very least Foote is worthy of a late round flier and should provide quality depth.
Brian Orakpo: By now everyone should have heard that the Redskins are playing Orakpo at strong side linebacker where the plan is to have him serve as an extra rusher in passing situations. If you can get away with playing him as a lineman Orakpo should be a steal. As a linebacker his value takes a big hit but may not be completely ruined. Regardless of the coaching regime, Washington has always been a club that likes their SLB to be a playmaker in the passing game. Some of you will remember Ken Harvey who totaled over 40 sacks in 5 seasons at the position back in the late 90s. More recently there was Marcus Washington who went 74-20-7.5 with a healthy helping of big plays to finish in the top 20 in 2005. Washington's production dropped off due to a number of injuries after that big season until he was recently released. The coaching staff now expects Orakpo to provide that kind of punch. There is a low ceiling of potential for the rookie but he could prove worthy of backup status or possibly even a third starter at some point.
Andra Davis: With the Broncos being bad as they were defensively last season and turning to a 3-4 scheme for the first time, I'm very surprised at how little consideration Davis is getting as a sleeper candidate. Granted he'll be playing next to tackle vacuum D.J. Williams but Davis is a guy with a history of solid tackle production. Before he was forced into a time share with Leon Williams two years ago, Davis averaged better than 5.5 tackles a game and 90 per 16 games played over a four year span. He knows the scheme and will be a starter from day one. In fact the only thing likely to keep him from putting up at least 80 tackles is the possibility that he will be pulled in passing situations. This defense has a long way to go and I'm not sure that Davis will fall short of 80 stops even as a two down player. Keep an eye on this situation during camp and don't hesitate to pick him up very late to round out your depth chart. He could be a pleasant surprise as a bye week fill in and if Williams is injured Davis would instantly become a quality 2nd starter.
Unsettled Situations
Tavares Gooden / Jameel McClain / Jason Phillips: With Bart Scott moving on the Ravens are left with a hole to fill next to Ray Lewis. Most people have already anointed Gooden who was last year's third round pick. He has spent most of the offseason working with the first unit but could feel a lot of heat during camp. When the club drafted Gooden there was a lot of speculation that he would be groomed to eventually replace Lewis. That may still be the expectation but he sure didn't do anything to show it last season when he was active for just four games and recorded all of 3 tackles. Meanwhile McClain, who was an undrafted free agent, saw action in 11 games going 12-4-2.5. Then there is Phillips who was this year's fifth round selection and the long shot to come out on top. The winner of this job should be worthy as a backup with a little upside for this year but could have much more value long term. If you're going to use a pick on one of them target Gooden until/unless something happens that presents a reason not to.
Rey Maualuga / Dhani Jones / Keith Rivers / Brandon Johnson: The Bengals went from hurting bad at linebacker two seasons ago to having an over abundance at the position heading into this year's training camp. By all rights this should be an easy decision for them. Being a season ticket holder for over 10 years, I can tell you first hand that no decision is easy for this club, no matter how obvious the answer. Going into camp the picture is clear as thick mud. My hope is that coming out of camp Maualuga will be an every down player at MLB where he belongs, Rivers will be an every down player at WLB where he belongs and either Jones or Johnson will be the starter at SLB where they belong. Rivers got off to a great start as a rookie last season but the coaching staff was so impressed with Johnson that they had to find a role for him. That role was as the nickel LB which bumped Rivers into a 2 down situation and killed his production. Johnson took over the job full time after Rivers was injured. He did a decent job but was not impressive. When the team drafted Maualuga in April the city was buzzing. Then they dropped the bomb that he might line up at SLB as a rookie. Jones is a natural OLB who had played on the strong side most of his career before being shifted to the middle in a desperation move after Odell Thurman crapped out again last summer. Now they are thinking about leaving him there despite the presence of a true MLB who was arguably the best in this year's draft. There is however a glimmer of hope that they will get this one right before camp breaks. Recent reports claim that Maualuga's cover skills have proven to be much better than expected, opening up the possibility that he could play on every down without being a liability. Rivers has also been impressive this offseason and will make it difficult for the coaching staff to justify taking him off the field in any situation. Once this thing plays out all the way Maualuga will be in the middle and should be a quality second starter with potential to join the elite at some point. Rivers will be an every down WLB and at least a solid #3. The problem is that we don't know how long it will take for the inevitable to finally be realized. Stay tuned for training camp.
D'Qwell Jackson / Eric Barton: One of these guys is going to be a very productive player and likely a #1 starter. The other will be a third starter at best and probably no better than a solid backup. Both played the same weak inside LB position for their respective teams a year ago, and both finished with more than 90 solo stops while the strong ILB on both teams averaged fewer than 5 tackles a game. Jackson is the favorite to remain in the more productive role based on the fact that he is the better athlete and is already established as the team's leader on defense. He should be drafted as a potential #1 but take the risk factor into consideration and move him down a little in favor of safer options. Consider Barton backup material unless we learn something different. This is obviously going to be one the first things we try to confirm once camps open.
Bart Scott / David Harris: This is basically the same situation we have with Jackson and Barton except that both Scott and Harris played the less productive of the ILB positions last season. Both have been productive in the past and both are quality players. At this point there has been nothing reported that gives us a clue either way so we are left with naught but to wait and see. If you draft before the answer is known it might be a good idea to try an land both guys. They will be available in late enough rounds that it should be worth it to spend 2 picks for one quality starter.
Xavier Adibi / Zach Diles: Adibi and Diles are expected to compete for the WLB in Houston but it's not a given that either will have any value even if they win the job. Diles was on fire before breaking his leg last season and Adibi piled up 14 tackles in his first start against the Colts in week 10 but never put up more than 4 in a game the rest of the season. The addition of Cushing likely means that whoever wins this job will likely be a 2 down player.
A.J. Hawk / Nick Barnett: Unlike some of the other 3-4 ILB situations we have a good idea that Barnett will be the weak inside backer while Hawk owners draw the short straw of strong ILB. That makes Barnett by far the more desirable of this duo. That said, Hawk may actually have better numbers than most in his situation. Defensive coordinator Dom Capers was the head coach in Houston several years back when Jamie Sharper and Jay Foreman were paired at the ILB positions and both approached 100 tackles a season for a couple of years. Granted that was an expansion franchise that started from scratch but it still leaves a little hope for Hawk. There is also the possibility of a position change once the pads go on. That however, seems unlikely as Hawk is the bigger more physical presence, traits that should make him better suited to the responsibilities of the strong side. It's hard to say just how successful either of these guys are going to be in a completely new situation but a safe bet is that Barnett will be a quality second starter with somewhere in the area of 90 tackles and a few big plays. Hawk might be worth a shot as a third starter but shouldn't be targeted as more than depth.
Aaron Curry / Leroy Hill: When Hill and Julian Peterson were working together at OLB in Seattle, Hill was generally the more productive in the tackle columns but Peterson's big play production made him the more valuable fantasy option in general. We could see more of the same with Curry replacing Peterson. Hill averaged a little better than 5 solo stops a game last season while working mostly from the strong side. He will shift over the the weak side this year which could further boost his tackle value. As with all situations like this, much will depend on who pairs with Lofa Tatupu in the nickel packages. The difference he being that Curry's prowess as a pass rusher may allow for all three linebackers to remain on the field. Early reports out of Seattle suggest that the club may have Curry put his hand down as a rush end in some situations. His athleticism allows for a lot of options. He has the rare ability to drop in coverage, rush the passer or stand up at the point of attack with equal success. In the end it's very possible that all three Seattle linebackers will have value as starters in deep drafted leagues. Tatupu remains the headliner of the group but if forced to choose between Curry and Hill I would probably go with Curry based on his unique abilities and greater potential.
Geno Hayes / Quincy Black / Jermaine Phillips / Angelo Crowell: There are several players in the mix at the OLB positions in Tampa Bay. Former starting SS Jermaine Phillips has been transplanted and is the leading candidate for the WLB position entering camp. Black and Hayes will get their opportunity during the preseason but a setback in his recovery from a serious knee injury may have already knocked Crowell out of the race. Adam Hayward and Matt McCoy could also cast their names into the hat before all is settled. With the Tampa-2 scheme gone the WLB position doesn't hold the value it once did, but the winner of this job could easily be an 80 tackle guy. If you draft early Phillips would be the guy to take a shot on in the last round.
Dynasty Alert
Jason Williams: Williams was the Cowboys third round pick in April and will be groomed to eventually replace one of the veterans at ILB. The general consensus being that Keith Brooking will keep the seat warm until Williams is ready. If he picks up the game quickly he could soon take on the nickel LB role left vacant when Kevin Burnett opted for San Diego. Williams has all the tools to be a fine every down player at the pro level and seems to be in line for the most productive of the two ILB positions. It could be a couple of years before he get the chance or it could be sooner if he excels or the current coaching staff is shown the door after this season. Tuck him away on a taxi squad if you have that option. If not just be sure to keep a reading on the pulse in Dallas.
DeAndre Levy: With the free agent addition of Larry Foote the Lions can afford to bring Levy along slowly as they transform him from a college OLB to a middle backer. A good portion of this transformation will likely come in the weight room where Levy need to get stronger and more physical. He's a fast athletic guy but doesn't take on blockers well and can be washed out too easily at the point of attack. His deficiencies are the kind of things that can be coached. His raw ability is something that has to come naturally. He'll play on special teams for a while but Levy could have a bright and productive future.
Clint Sintim: Sintim is an intriguing prospect. He's a versatile young man who can play any of the LB positions or at defensive end, and is perceived as the reason the Giants are leaving Mathias Kiwanuka at DE this year. Sintim can cover the TE, stuff the run or rush the passer. He's just what the Giants were looking for in a SLB. Coach Coughlin hates rookies so Sintim won't be handed a starting job anytime soon but look for him to make a situational impact for the Giants this season at the least. Unless he is exceptionally productive the restrictions of the SLB position will limit his long term fantasy potential as well. He could however, develop into a 75 tackles and 8 sacks a year guy by as early as next season.
Tyrone McKenzie: McKenzie will spend his rookie season on IR but it's believed he will eventual team with Jerod Mayo at ILB. Tedy Bruschi is on his farewell tour and it's unclear if Gary Guyton can be more than a passing down option. He's out for the year so there is no reason to get excited about McKenzie at the moment. Just tuck his name away in your memory for now and maybe pick him up late in the season when no one else is thinking about 2010.
Scott McKillop: After grading him out much higher San Francisco was thrilled to get McKillop in the fifth round. He will be prepared to eventually replace Takeo Spikes as Patrick Willis' sidekick at ILB in the Niners 3-4. While that position will never be greatly productive so long as Willis is there sucking up tackles, Spikes proved for us last season that it can have some value. If San Francisco struggles (and they will without a QB) look for McKillop to get on the field late this season. Maybe most importantly, the coaching staff believes that if Willis were ever lost to an injury McKillop is talented enough to step right in and produce.
Gerald McRath: The Titans are strong at the LB positions right now but both Keith Bulluck and David Thornton are on the wrong side of 30 years old. McRath is currently listed as a backup to Stephen Tulloch at MLB but may soon be moved to the weak side to take advantage of his exceptional speed. McRath was very productive at Southern Miss and that could carry over to this level once he gets a chance to play.
That's going to do it for the linebackers. I hope to have the DBs done by the first week of August but have to give everyone a heads up that it may not happen due to some personal issues that have come up. Hopefully I can get everything squared away in short order and get back to work on it.
Best of luck in your upcoming drafts!