Eyes Of the Guru - Defensive Backs

Posted 8/12 by John Norton - Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Hello again fantasy addicts and welcome to part 3 of the 13th edition of the annual Eyes of the Guru preseason IDP report. As mentioned at the end of the linebackers piece, I wasn't sure if I would be able to get in the DB article this year. Not wanting to leave the job unfinished, here we go.

For reference, when I mention where guys finished in the rankings last season, my model will be the Footballguys scoring system which is nearly identical to the North American Fantasy Football Addicts (NAFFA) league I have run for the past 13 years. Feel free to check it out. Defensive scoring in this league is the standard stuff but keep in mind that rankings will vary a bit from league to league. When I mention tackle numbers, I do not lump assists and solo tackles together. Unless I make a reference one way or the other, I am talking about solo tackles. When referencing takeaway numbers I include forced fumbles along with recoveries and interceptions.

Defensive backs are traditionally the least consistent of any position on a year to year basis. While the position is not without steady and dependable producers, this fact makes it particularly difficult to predict once you get past the top 15-20. This is especially true for corner backs. Consider that only three corners who finished in the top 20 in 2007 repeated in 2008, with Charles Woodson and DeAngelo Hall the only two that have been there in three consecutive campaigns. In all just six corners have made the top 20 twice in the past three seasons. The number of leagues that break out DB positions is growing steadily and owners in corner required leagues in particular can use this knowledge to their advantage on draft day. You can either be certain to grab one of the few dependable options fairly early or blow off the position completely until the late rounds. Keep in mind that this is a position that can easily be addressed via free agency in the early weeks of the season. There are usually an number of unknowns or at least unexpected who emerge in September. When it comes to corners we are best served to go with the hot hand.

Another important thing to understand here is the rookie corner rule. Anyone who has been around the Footballguys community for long is already familiar with this. For those who are not, the rookie corner rule is simply this; offensive coordinators prey on inexperience and throwing a rookie corner into a starting role is like throwing chum to sharks. They are often targeted in offensive game plans and are nearly always tested often. As such these players tend to have an exaggerated number of opportunities which leads to quality production for us. The mistake that is often made by fantasy owners is expecting these players to continue their production into later seasons. Corners who start as rookies generally do so because they are the cream of the crop. Once they have gained a little experience many of them develop into their teams best cover men or at the least are no longer perceived as a weakness, thus causing their numbers to decline sharply. Knowing and understanding schemes will help you to identify the potential exceptions to this rule. If you are interested in learning more on this subject check out the work of my colleague Jene Bramel who's outstanding "Reading the Defense" series breaks down defensive schemes and helps identify these players.

Generally speaking the safety positions provide more consistency and stability for us and the strong safety position in particular tends to provide the best opportunity in general. Just like everything else however, there are exceptions. Cover 2 schemes often put corners in situations that improve their value and some teams use their safeties interchangeably allowing players who might be designated as free safeties to excel in the box scores. Lets look at some individual players and situations.

Cream of the Crop

Eric Weddle: There were many things that contributed to Weddle's breakout 105-22-1 in '08. Injuries and the subsequent demise of the Chargers defense in general being the most obvious, but don't overlook the impact of experience. Weddle leapt from 42-11-1 as a rookie in '07 all the way to #3 on the DB ranking at the end of his second season. The Chargers get a lot of injured players back and should rebound strongly. That will undoubtedly impact Weddle's numbers to the point that we would be foolish to expect a repeat of triple digit tackles. His quality production however, was not a fluke. He should give us 85+ solo stops this season and will likely add to the big play numbers that held him back a little in '08. I'm not real excited about drafting him as the #1 DB but he's earned the consideration and you certainly won't be hurt if you do so.

Adrian Wilson: Don't lets Wilson's recent struggles scare you off. Following a three year run of top 5 finishes he was injured early in 2007. He tried to play for a few weeks but eventually landed on IR. The final numbers show just 33 solo tackles in nine games but in reality he recorded 29 of those in the first six games when he was healthy and was on pace for a very solid 77. His numbers were down again in '08 when Wilson played most of the year with a bad toe, later adding a shoulder injury. The string of injuries is reason for caution but this is a guy who is 29 years old and hadn't missed a game in four seasons leading up to 2007. The organization is obviously not concerned with either the injury situation or a decline in production as they just inked him to a new five year deal worth 39 million. In the five seasons prior to '07 Wilson averaged 5 solo stops a game and ranked in the top 10 four times. Even more importantly he's a playmaker with 18.5 sacks and 34 takeaways since 2002. He's a perfect fit in the Cardinals new scheme and barring injury should return to the top 10 if not top 5 in 2009. Look for 75+ solo stops and plenty of big play production.

Richard Marshall: Marshall as averaged 72-10 over the past three seasons, adding 4 sacks, 13 takeaways, 30 PD and a pair of top 10 finishes. All this while working as the Panthers third corner. Now that Ken Lucas has moved on Marshall will finally move into the starting lineup and will likely take his place along with fellow corner Antoine Winfield as a perennial top 10 DB in any system.

Antoine Winfield / Cedric Griffin: If not for an injury in 2007 when he was on pace for 92, Winfield would be on a streak of four consecutive seasons with 80+ solo tackles. He's averaged better than 5 tackles a game since '02 and has added 14 picks in his five season with the Vikings. He's been among the top 10 DBs overall, and the top 5 corners four times in the past six seasons and at age 32 is showing no sign of slowing down. In Griffin the Vikings seem to have a younger clone of Winfield. Griffin has reached 80 tackles in each of his two years as a starter, with 8 takeaways and 24 passes defended. Add 5 more takeaways and another 10 PD for his rookie season when Griffin served as the nickel corner. Granted both of these players are aided by the cover-2 scheme employed by Minnesota, but in this situation I see it as more of the players making the scheme that the other way around. The bottom line here is that both of these guys are candidates to make the top 10 DBs in any scoring system and should be among the top three corners off the board in leagues that break out the positions.

Roman Harper: Harper missed a game last season and still broke the 80 solo tackle mark. Only a lack of big plays kept him out of the top 15 in '08 and there are reason's to believe those numbers will improve. In 2007 he went 75-15-4 with 5 takeaways and 8 PD so we know he has the ability. New DC Gregg Williams brings a more aggressive style of play that should help a lot as well. Then there is the fact that Williams has stated the intention to move Harper up in the box more often. The Saints don't have great outside backers so Harper will have plenty of opportunity. He could easily break the 85 solo mark and sprinkle in 5-6 takeaways in '09.

Yeremiah Bell / Gibril Wilson: The only thing keeping these two guys from being higher on the list is the fact that they are likely to beat each other out of some production. Bell was second in the league among DBs with 100 solo stops last season and Wilson was right on his heels at third with 96. Figure in Channing Crowder who pulled 92 solos at MLB and there is just not enough opportunity for all three of these guys to repeat those gaudy totals. Bell will work at SS and play in the box much more often than Wilson, so he has the upper hand in the quest for tackle production. On the other hand Wilson is a proven playmaker who has posted strong tackle numbers from FS in the past and brings a much greater potential for big plays. Give Bell a slight advantage on your draft board but don't hesitate to grab either of these guys among the top 10 DBs.

Kevin Payne: At the outset of last season I was a bit miffed and surprised that Payne was starting over Brandon McGowan. A few games into the season I understood why. Payne went 73-15-1 with 4 picks as a first year starter. He's not the greatest cover safety in the league but neither is he a liability. At 215 pounds Payne provides the Bears with a hard hitting enforcer over the middle and brings an intimidation factor to the secondary. The Chicago scheme provides a lot of opportunity for the secondary to make big plays and Payne has shown that he can take advantage. A healthy Brian Urlacher might pinch some tackle opportunity from Payne but the comfort level he will reach as a second year starter should more than compensate. The Bears SS position has a rich history of quality box score production and it would be no surprise to see Payne break into the top 10 DBs this season.

Kerry Rhodes: Over his first two NFL seasons ('05 & '06) Rhodes averaged 81-22-3, adding 10 takeaways and a pair of top 10 finishes. Then came the Mangini reign and the brilliant idea to move Rhodes into a center field role. The big play numbers remained strong but the tackle opportunity was no longer there and the numbers plummeted. Sweeter words have never been spoken than those of Rex Ryan who told reporters recently that he will move Rhodes up closer to the line where his talent can be tapped once again. The Jets have more talent in the front 7 than they did a few years back but Rhodes is an animal when he smells the football. 75+ solo stops and 6-8 big plays should return him to the top 15 if not better in 2009.

Quintin Mikell: Mikell only recorded 68 solo stops last season but supplemented those with 25 assists, 5 takeaways, a pair of sacks and 9 passes defended to land among the top 5 safeties. With MLB Stuart Bradley lost and Brian Dawkins wearing orange, Mikell is an even more attractive prospect this year. There is a little concern over the addition of Sean Jones but Jones seems to be locked into a battle with Quintin Demps for the FS position. Demps is no threat at SS and Jones is favored to win the FS job so the risk seems minimal as of early August.

Oshiomogo Atogwe: Atogwe exploded with a career best 77 solo stops and a whopping 14 takeaways last season. So why then is he this far down the list you say? Because I'm not sure he can repeat that kind of production. For starter I believe the Rams defense will improve considerably in '09. Laurinaitis will be a tackling machine, Witherspoon is healthy and the club added James Butler at SS. All three will bite into Atogwe's opportunity, likely dropping him back into the low to mid 60s range in tackles. On the other hand, an improved defense will certainly not hamper his big play production. Three years as a starter have yielded an impressive 16 picks, 11 forced fumbles, and 5 recoveries for Atogwe. He may be a little inconsistent from week to week but the overall number will be there.

Quality Options

Michael Lewis: Lewis didn't post great numbers in '08 but his 76-20 and handful of big plays were pretty solid when you consider that he battled nagging shoulder and abdominal injuries all season. He's never been a major big play guy but '08 marked the first time in his career that Lewis failed to record an interception. Despite being banged up Lewis managed his 5th top 15 ranking in the last six seasons and a second consecutive quality season since coming to the 49ers. A healthy Lewis should give us somewhere in the area of 80 solo stops and 5-6 big plays. Not #1 material but easily worthy as a solid second starter.

Troy Polamalu: For owners who like to gamble a little Polamalu is the guy to have. He's not going to rack up great tackle numbers but is one of the leagues premier big play threats at the safety position. He only totaled 54 solo stops in '08 but his 7 picks and 17 passes defended were enough to land him among the top 15 in most leagues. The problem with depending on big plays is that it often goes hand in hand with inconsistency. Polamalu posted double digit fantasy points in eight games last season but failed to reach 7 in any of the other eight. At a glance his tackle production over the past three seasons looks very weak but a deeper probe shows more promise. Polamalu was tagged as an injury risk after missing three games in '06 and five in '07. His tackle numbers were 45 and 57 respectively in those years but once you average things out you get a much more respectable 68 per 16 games played. He managed a full season in '08 and seems to have put the injury bug in the past. After averaging about 69 tackles per 16 games from 2004 through 2007 it's a safe bet that his numbers will bounce back into the mid 60s range in '09, making Polamalu a quality options as a second starter.

Chris Horton: Were he a little more proven Horton would likely be among the first tier of defensive backs. He opened last season in a time share with Reed Daughty and became a starter shortly after his two picks and a fumble recovery versus the Saints in week two. Even then Horton didn't hold an every down role until Daughty was injured in week five. Horton proceeded to rack up 17 solo tackles in his first two games as an every down SS before an ankle injury followed by a bum shoulder took much of the wind out of his sails. Horton displayed toughness by battling through the pain to finish at 57-19-1. He's healthy now and enters this season as the undisputed every down SS for the Redskins. He's fast, has a big heart and at 6'1" and 212 pounds, brings the lumber. If he can stay out of the trainers room Horton has the makings of an 80+ tackle guy with plenty of big play potential.

Atari Bigby: Bigby spent most of last season watching and recovering from shoulder and ankle injuries. The ankle remains somewhat of a question as the team has been careful with him this offseason. He has been limited to one practice a day early in camp but the consensus is that he will be fine. There are several considerations that make me high on him this season. A lot of people are speculating that the Packers will improve defensively with their move to a 3-4 scheme. While I don't disagree with that assumption for the long term, I am much less optimistic that they will find success immediately. History shows us very clearly that this is a huge change and it takes time for the players to become comfortable. This along with injury questions and positional uncertainty among the front seven, are signs that Bigby will have plenty of opportunity this season as the Packers transition. Then there is the fact that the SS position is often among the most productive in 3-4 schemes. This fact is highlighted by the offseason. statements of head coach Mike McCarthy who told us that Bigby would be asked to play up closer to the line and will be called upon to take part in the team's blitz packages. Bigby was 66-20 with 8 takeaways and 9 passes defended in '07. If healthy he should improve in the tackle column while continuing to have plenty of big play opportunity.

Chris Harris: Harris sort of fell off the map last season when his production dropped significantly from the 76-20 with 8 forced fumbles, 3 recoveries, a pick and 5 passes defended that made him the #1 DB in most leagues in 2007. As a result many fantasy owners have written him off as a one year wonder. Don't be one of those owners. Harris showed a great deal of heart by quietly battling through a litany of nagging injuries throughout the 2008 season. A sore groin early followed by a sprained knee and then a bum shoulder that eventually required offseason. surgery. He was completely healthy for just one game in '08. In that game (the opener) he was 9-1 with a forced fumble. The chances of his repeating the 8 forced fumbles that set him apart in '07 are slim but a healthy Harris should get back to the 75 tackle range with enough big plays to make him a quality second starter with upside.

Quintin Jammer: Jammer has never been a player who gets a lot of attention and is not a guy who is our first though when it comes to top fantasy options. That said, the proof is in the numbers and we shouldn't overlook him, especially those of us in corner required leagues. Jammer comes off a 2008 season in which he was a very respectable 75-13 with 4 takeaways and a whopping 19 passes defended. In fact he's reached 70+ tackles twice in the last three years with 14 takeaways and an impressive 47 passes defended over that span. He's a strong #1 option if you must play corners and a quality #3 if not better for the rest of us.

Antoine Bethea: Bob Sanders gets all the attention at safety in Indy but when you really look at it, Bethea is probably the better option for us. While Sanders continues to be in and out of the lineup with injuries, Bethea quietly finished last season at 74-24 with 3 takeaways, posting 9 or more fantasy points in 11 games. In fact he's averaged just under 5 solo stops per start over his three seasons. You could do much worse for a third starter and best of all, Bethea is a guy who will usually slip well into the later rounds.

Bernard Pollard: Pollard was the Chiefs leading tackler last season and has turned in back to back top 15 finishes. At 224 pounds he's like an extra linebacker on the field but like a linebacker he's not stellar in coverage. That fact had the club looking to replace Pollard him last season and they are continuing to do so. Just like last year there is an ongoing camp competition for both safety positions. Pollard won the job in '08 over DaJuan Morgan and Jon McGraw. The only addition to the mix this time around is oft injured former Bear Mike Brown who is not the same player he was before suffering a multitude of injuries that eventually forced Chicago to move on. There is enough reason for concern to move Pollard down our draft boards a little but in the end he is very likely to take the field as at SS in the opener. As previously mentioned 3-4 schemes generally promote production by the SS and this is yet another club in the beginning stages of transition to the new scheme. Factor in that the Chiefs are weak at linebacker and Pollard should be in line to repeat or even improve on last year's 78-20 and 4 takeaways.

Kenny Phillips / Michael Johnson: The Giants used a three headed monster at safety in '08 with Phillips, Johnson and James Butler combining for 170 solo stops. Granted there was a little overlap for the few plays that all three were on the field together but this didn't happen a lot. Now that Butler is in St. Louis, Phillips and Johnson will have every down roles. As last years first round pick Phillips comes with grand expectations and his 55 solo stops was tops among the three Giants safeties last season. He's the heavy favorite to be the most productive of the two but don't write Johnson off. In fact Johnson might even prove the better fantasy option. The coaches plan to keep Phillips back off the line in more of a centerfield type FS role while Johnson will draw the vast majority of in the box run support duty at SS. As the Giants FS Gibril Wilson posted 77 and 78 solo stops in '06 and '07 but he racked up 92 in '05 when he played SS. Chances are both of these guys are going to be relatively productive for us but with Butler gone, someone is going to make a lot of tackles here.

Eric Coleman: The Falcons will be much improved on defense this year, especially in the front seven. While that could have a little negative impact on Coleman's tackle production it should provide more opportunity in the big play columns. Since joining the league in 2004 Coleman has established himself as a solid and consistent IDP option. With the exception of an injury shortened 2007, he has exceeded 70 tackles each season, reaching the 80 mark twice including last year when he was 80-15 with 3 picks. Expect somewhere in the area of 75 solo stops and 3-5 takeaways in '08, making Coleman a solid third starter.

Be Careful

Antrel Rolle: The move to FS was a great one for Rolle who took to the job like a fish to water. His 78 solo stops in '08 were second best on the club and he was a solid in season pickup last year. That said, be very careful of where you rank him. Rolle has still not developed into the consistent big play threat Arizona expected when they drafted him 8th overall in 2005. Of his eight career interceptions, five came in the '07 season while he recorded just one in '08. A second year at the position could make a difference when it comes to big plays, but the return of a healthy Adrian Wilson will very likely keep Rolle's tackle production in check. He slipped into the top 25 a year ago and has a shot at doing so again but the upside seems limited unless Wilson goes down again.

Brian Dawkins: There are a lot of reason to beware of Dawkins this year. He's 36 years old, just had surgery on a broken hand suffered in the opening days of camp and even if he were young an healthy, is not in as great a situation as it would seem. The Broncos safety position has been virtually devoid of a fantasy productive player for nearly two decades. Even the great Steve Atwater was barely an average fantasy prospect. Other than Eric Brown who was a flash in the pan, Denver has given us nothing. Granted Dawkins is the kind of playmaker that hasn't been seen in Denver in a long long time. He could come up with enough big plays to break the curse, but keep in mind that Marquand Manuel led Denver DBs with 61 tackles last season.

Chris Gamble: In 2008 Gamble reached career highs in both the tackle column with 83 and the passes defended column with 18, on the way to an also career best #3 ranking among corners. Be aware however, that it was the first time in his career that Gamble posted more than 66 tackles in a season and only the second time he has finished inside the top 15. In fact Gamble didn't even make the top 25 corners in '06 or '07. He clearly worth taking a chance on late in your draft or especially in corner required leagues, but don't be shocked if he returns to mediocrity.

Bob Sanders: If Sanders could remain healthy he would be a perennial top 10 DB. The sad fact is that he can't. He's played in just 44 of 80 games over the past five seasons, competing in six or fewer in three of those years, and has never played a full slate of games in any season. The closest Sanders has come was in 2007 when he played 15 games and finished among the top 10 with a mark of 71-25-3.5 and a handful of big plays. Don't hesitate to grab him late if he's available but don't make the mistake of drafting Sanders as a starter unless you are sure to handcuff him with Melvin Bullitt.

Nick Collins: Collins exploded for 7 picks and 15 passes defended in '08, leading to the first top 15 finish of his career. It was a career year for him and one that will lead to his being vastly over drafted based on his final ranking. In his previous three season Collins combined for only 4 interceptions and his career best is 67 tackles. The new scheme is very likely to retard Collins new found big play numbers, at least until everyone settles in to the new responsibilities. There is also the consideration that free safeties generally are not highly productive in 3-4 schemes. Collins has some value and potential but don't be the owner who picks him too high expecting a repeat of '08.

Unsettled Situations

Chinedum Ndukwe / Roy Williams / Marvin White / Chris Crocker: The Bengals entered camp with a wide open battle at the safety positions. White is at a disadvantage because he's coming off an injury and likely won't be 100%. Crocker seems to be the favorite at FS for now but he has proven over the past several years that he's no more than a marginal NFL starter. Williams had the best years of his career under new DC Mike Zimmer and knows the defensive scheme, but have his cover skills really eroded to the point that he's a liability on third down? Then there is Ndukwe who has been nothing but impressive on the field but has spent too much time in the trainers room. I believe that eventually we will see Ndukwe at SS and White at FS but how long it takes to get to that point is the issue. The short term fear being that there will be so many situational substitutions that it will ruin them all. Owners in redraft leagues may want to take a late round flier of Williams or Ndukwe for this season. Dynasty owners might want to tuck Ndukwe or White away for safe keeping. Stay tuned for camp updates.

Brandon Meriweather / Patrick Chung: Strong safety has been a very productive position in New England over the years so this situation is very much worth keeping a close eye on. Let the numbers tell you just how important. Rodney Harrison opened 2008 posting 19 tackles in the first three games and double digit fantasy points in four of the first five before being injured in the 6th. Meriweather shifted over from FS after Harrison went down and went on to put up 37 solo stops in the final 7 games (averaging 5+) and 9 or more fantasy points in eight of the final ten games. Chung is somewhat of a Harrison clone in that he was a playmaker and a physically intimidating presence at Oregon. Just the kind of play Bill Belichick wants and expects from his SS. The Pats opened camp with the intention of starting Meriweather and James Sanders at safety while they are working their prize rookie in slowly by giving him multiple roles in sub packages. That said, it's not a matter of if, but rather when will Chung claim the SS position he was drafted to fill. What they are saying is that Chung will not start this year but you can bet that if he impresses in camp that will change. Dynasty owners obviously need to be all over this kid and redraft owners might be well served to pick him up late and see where he is come September. He might be a late round steal.

Quintin Demps / Sean Jones: Demps and Jones will battle for the honor of replacing Eagles legend Brian Dawkins at FS. The winner, while not in the greatest of situations when it comes to tackle production, will have a lot of opportunity for big plays in the Eagles pressure style of defense that is not expected to change much under new DC Sean McDermott. Jones is a proven playmaker with 14 picks and 17 total takeaways over his past three years in Cleveland. Demps is a second year players with virtually no NFL game experience but he does have a year in the system which could prove huge since the Eagles defense is know as one of the most complicated in the league. The winner of this competition should be good for 65 or so tackles and 5-6 big plays with a little upside

Clinton Hart / Steve Gregory: Hart opened 2008 as the Chargers starting SS and posted a strong 7-3 box score in week one. His promising season took a wrong turn in week two when he suffered a broken hand that required surgery. Although he continued to play through it, the injury obviously had an impact on his game. The end result was an opportunity for Gregory to get on the field. The two combined to go 76-23 on the season and are currently locked in a battle for the starting job. Hart opened camp working with the starters and seems to have the upper hand early on. It's noteworthy that Hart was a very productive 68-17-1 with 5 picks and a fumble recovery in 2007 when he started all 16 games. Weddle may be the top fantasy option here but the winner of this battle is likely to make a little noise as well.

William Moore / Thomas DeCoud: This was shaping up to be one of the more interesting battles of camp before an injury to Moore made the coaches decision for them. The rookie second round pick recently underwent a "procedure" on his knee that could sideline him through the rest of training camp. DeCoud who was last year's third round pick, now seems a lock to open the season as the starter. That however, doesn't ensure he will finish the season as the starter. Whoever lines up in this position is going to have some value for us. Both of these guys are capable players and are battling for a Falcons SS position that has produced 70+ tackles in each of the past three seasons.

Michael Mitchell / Tyvon Branch: The Raiders got plenty of grief from the media when they "reached" for Ohio University standout Michael Mitchell in the second round. Some clubs however were not all that surprised as many reportedly had given Mitchell a third round grade. If you want to see why Oakland was high on this kid just check out the YouTube footage on him. Mitchell is fast, athletic and brings a big payload when he gets to the ball. Three things that Al Davis covets. He will be given every opportunity to secure a Raiders SS job, but thus far Mitchell's struggles in coverage has allowed Branch to hold onto it. This spot has been among the most productive in the league in recent years, including the 96-33 mark posted by Gibril Wilson a year ago. Whoever lines up as the Raiders strong safety is going to have a great deal of potential, which makes this competition one of the most important for us to follow this summer.

Sleepers

Sabby Piscitelli: It remains to be seen what Piscitelli will do with this opportunity but the Jermaine Phillips to WLB experiment is apparently going well so it sure looks like the SS job is going to belong to Piscitelli going foreword. Between the new defensive scheme and the fact that we have little history to go on, anything can happen here. What we do know is that Piscitelli had a reputation as a very productive big hitter coming out of college. He will likely spend a good deal of time up in the box and will be working behind an unproven SLB which could put him in a target rich environment. He didn't fare so well in a brief stint as the starter last season but then this is a completely different situation. Slide Piscitelli onto your draft board as a third starter with some upside and keep an eye on him early in the preseason

Eugene Wilson: Wilson was only 52-11 with 2 picks and 7 passes defended last season but when you consider he wasn't even with the team in camp and didn't start his first game until week 8, that's pretty impressive. Even more impressive is how he finished the season with 42 solo stops over the final 7 games. An average of 6 per contest. Wilson impressed the Texans so much he was signed to a 3 year 11+ million dollar deal. He may prove to be a flash in the pan but if you can get him in round 34 as I just did in our staff IDP league draft, he could prove to be a steal.

Bryan Scott: Scott may not be a long term answer here but he has been working as the strong safety with the first team defense early in camp while Donte Whitner continues to see time at FS. Scott's overall numbers of 56-13-1 are unimpressive unless you consider that he didn't move into the starting lineup until week eight. In the ten games that followed he quietly put up 47 solo tackles. That's a pace that would have landed him in the mid 70s range over a full season. Scott has been productive pretty much whenever given an opportunity, including a top 15 as the Falcons starter in '04 when he finished at 76-22-2.5. He's never going to make the top 10 but it sure looks as if he would make a quality third starter for many of us this year.

Charles Tillman / Corey Graham: Charles Tillman has been a top 20 DB in each of the past four seasons, landing in the top 5 in two of those. That streak is in serious jeopardy due to the recent back surgery that is expected to sideline him into the season. Tillman's injury will give Corey Graham another opportunity to shine. Graham got on the field last year when Nathan Vasher went down and all Graham did was go 76-13 with 3 takeaways in his fourteen starts. Even prior to Tillman's injury there was speculation that Graham would push Vasher for the starting job during camp. If he plays well in Tillman's place it will be very interesting to see who moves to the nickel or goes to the bench when Tillman returns.

Louis Delmas: Delmas has already been anointed the starting FS in Detroit. In the past that would have been enough to remove him from fantasy consideration completely. However, with the cover 2 gone things will be different in the Lions secondary. Delmas will still play off the ball a good distance making it unlikely that he'll put up strong tackle numbers, but the coaching staff will do all they can to take advantage of the playmaking ability that made him the first pick of the second round. He should be somewhere in the area of 65 solo stops and if he pick up the pro game quickly, could supplement the tackle numbers with 4-5 picks and a few other big plays.

Melvin Bullitt: As the backup to oft injured Bob Sanders, Bullitt may not be in the lineup during September but is nearly certain to see plenty of playing time over the course of the season. He appeared in fifteen games last season, starting ten and finishing with 59 solo stops, 5 takeaways and 9 passes defended. Most owners will leave Bullitt on the board and try to pick him up when Sanders goes down. That's fine but if you are in a deep league, have Sanders or just have room to roster Bullitt for safe keeping, it would be a good idea to grab him late and avoid the competition for his services later.

Madieu Williams: Williams missed the first eight games of last season while recovering from a neck injury, then missed most of another with a sore shoulder. In what amounted to seven games of action he totaled a very solid 38-4 with a pair of picks. The Vikings scheme doesn't exactly promote tackle opportunity for the safeties but having watched Williams during the early days of his career in Cincinnati, I was not at all surprised with his production. The Vikings signed him for his big play ability but Williams is a complete player who doesn't hesitate to lower his pads and put a lick on the ball carrier. He's a major big play threat so if he can keep up the 76 tackle pace he was on down the stretch in '08, Williams could be one of the biggest statistical surprises of the '09 season.

James Butler: While Butler has never done anything to garner any serious fantasy attention he did manage 54 tackles, 4 takeaways and 7 passes defended as part of the three man crew at safety in New York last season. This year Butler finds himself in a situation with big potential as the Rams strong safety. Since the departure of Adam Archuleta this position has been quiet in fantasy terms but Butler will be a big improvement over Corey Chavous who held the post for the previous three seasons. Butler will work as an in the box safety much more often than did Chavous who was in reality a misplaced FS, and will have a lot of opportunity on a club that is in the process of rebuilding. Look for Butler to steal a fair share of tackles away from O.J. Atogwe and finish with 75+ along with a handful of big plays. It would come as a surprise if Butler were not worthy as at least quality depth and he has the potential to be a decent 2nd starter.

Corner-required Leagues

DeAngelo Hall: Hall may never reach 70 solo stops but he makes up for less than stellar tackle numbers by consistently making his mark as a playmaker. Hall's tackle numbers aren't horrible. He's exceeded 50 stops in four straight seasons with 63 in each of the last two, but it's his 20 interceptions, 63 passes defended and 28 total takeaways over those four seasons that have made him a perennial top 20 corner with a pair of top 10 rankings in the past two seasons. Playing opposite one of the leagues best corners in Carlos Rogers doesn't hurt Hall's chances of making it three top tens in a row.

Charles Woodson: While Woodson has been considered among the leagues best cover corners for his entire career, the move to Green Bay in 2006 unleashed his playmaking ability. Since coming to the Pack he's posted 50+ solo stops every year and has piled up 19 interceptions with a whopping 27 total takeaways. He even has 4 sacks. The soft tackle numbers make Woodson a little inconsistent on a week to week basis but he remains an excellent option as a lower tier #1 starter.

Terrence McGee: Despite missing a game or two in each of the past four seasons, McGee has reached at least 60 solo stops in each of his five years as a starter, making him one of the few very consistent fantasy options at the corner position. The Bills continue to use a good deal of cover-2 so there is no reason to think that streak will come to a halt. In '08 he missed 3 games and most of a 4th but still managed 61 stops, 3 picks, 19 passes defended and a fifth straight top 25 ranking among corners. He's not a top sure top 10 guy but has the potential to land there as he has twice previously and as recently as 2007. At worst McGee can be counted on as a quality second starter.

Ronde Barber / Aqib Talib: For a lot of years Barber was one of the relatively few corners who was consistent and productive enough to be a quality starter in any IDP league. His numbers crashed hard in 2007 but rebounded enough last season to make him a strong #1 starter in corner required leagues and a decent backup for everyone else. Talib is a player who has been tapped by many as the next Ronde Barber. As such he has gone fairly high in the corner required drafts I have seen this summer. Both of these players should have some value in those leagues but we can't overlook the fact that there is no longer a cover-2 scheme in Tampa. While Barber is the kind of player who would have been productive in nearly any situation, it's doubtful that he would have posted four consecutive 80+ tackle seasons in a different scheme. With all the changes in Tampa Bay I'm not sure we should count on either of their corners as more than second starters or quality depth in corner required leagues.

Leon Hall: If Hall's '08 season was for real, he will prove to be an exception to the rookie corner rule. He was productive as a rookie when he finished at 55-14 with 5 picks, 12 passes defended and a forced fumble. Instead of dropping off a little as most first round pick do in their second seasons, Hall came back with 61-14, 3 picks and a league leading 24 passes defended in '08. Time will tell where his numbers go from here but there is no doubt that he's worthy of consideration as a solid second starter until proven otherwise.

Marlin Jackson: Jackson played in just seven games last season before blowing out a knee, but his 41 solo stops in those games had him on pace to rack up 93 tackles. With just 3 picks in a four year pro career, he has never been a big play maven but has exceeded 60 solo stops in each of the past three seasons. There is also some hope that this year's tweaks to the defense will translate to more big plays across the board for Colts defenders. Jackson is not yet 100% recovered from the knee injury but is expected to be in the lineup on opening day. Owners should be able to pick him up in the late rounds as depth with upside.

Ken Lucas / Josh Wilson: With 69 tackles and 9 takeaways Wilson was one of last year's most productive corners. As a first time starter in his second season, the rookie corner rule came into play as well as the fact that he was lining up opposite Marcus Trufant who is one of the best corners in the league. Even though Wilson played well, the return of Lucas likely send him back to the nickel role. Lucas is a quality NFL starter who was a top 10 fantasy corner twice earlier in his career. Both times coming in his first stint with the Seahawks. With this in mind the competition for the starting job is one that we need to keep close tabs on. Whoever wins this gig should at the least be quality depth for us and quite possible a solid #2.

Brandon Flowers / Brandon Carr: Flowers and Carr have a great deal in common. They both started as rookies and were both productive enough to be solid options in corner required leagues. They are both part of the new scheme in Kansas City and neither are rookies any longer. The Chiefs previous regime used the cover 2 often, a scheme in which corners have a lot more opportunity. The new scheme and the rookie corner rule are both likely to be a factor here. On the other hand, this club still has a long way to go defensively so there should be plenty of opportunity and both players are physical types who fit the cover 2 because they don't shy away from contact. Those are not necessarily the traits of 3-4 corners but they will come in handy while the Chiefs are rebuilding. The point here being that the potential remains for both Flowers and Carr to be very productive again but there are just as many reasons why their numbers could slip.

Eric Wright / Brandon McDonald: Wright is a perfect example of the rookie corner rule. His 71-5-1 with one pick in fourteen games as a rookie was followed by 61 tackles and eight takeaways in his second season. If the Browns ever get better as a team, his tackle production will likely continue to drop and the big plays will continue to increase. 2008 was McDonald's second pro season but was the first time that the young man worked as a starter. As such the rookie corner rule may well be in play here as well. His 64-11 with 6 takeaways and 17 passes defended was enough to land McDonald among the top 10 corners last season. The experience factor will make offenses less likely to pick on him which could hurt a little. On the other hand, the Browns have a long way to go defensively so both corners should be on the field a lot with a great deal of opportunity.

Tracy Porter: Porter was off to a great start as a rookie before injury struck. It's hard to say if he will pick up right where he left off or if the rookie corner rule will play out here as well. Much of that may depend on the progress of rookie first round pick Malcolm Jenkins. Should Jenkins earn a starting job it would likely be he rather than Porter who would be in the cross hairs of opponents passing attacks. Consider Porter worthy of selection as a #3 with upside.

Sherrod Martin: Martin is set to take over the Panthers nickel corner duties that have made Richard Marshall a very productive man in recent years. Consider Martin a sleeper who can be had in the very late rounds or passed over completely and snagged in season if he prove productive.

Tramon Williams: Several events led to the opportunity that Williams received last season. What matters is how he responded. Williams opened the season as the Packers nickel corner. When Al Harris missed four games Williams was given his first starting assignment. In those four games he recorded 20 tackles, 3 interceptions and a forced fumble. He finished the season with 52 tackles, 5 picks and 14 passes defended. Not exactly stellar production for our needs but certainly worthy of roster consideration as depth for those of us who start two corners. It's his upside however, that is so intriguing. Charles Woodson is 32 years old and Harris 34, they aren't going to play forever. Williams impressive play has him in line for a starting job that could manifest in the near future, especially if there is an injury. Call him a deep sleeper but this is a player worth a roster spot in dynasty leagues.

There are a multitude of other guys I could mention at corner but if I take that time you won't be reading this until week two. With that in mind I'll leave you with a just a few more quick mentions. Rashean Mathis, Cortland Finnegan and Nick Harper are all corners with a history of solid production that make them very worthy considerations. These guys have a slew of top 15 finishes between them over the past several years and are all prime candidates to be quality starters this year if you must play two corners.

That does it for the preseason Best of luck in all your drafts and may you kick butt all season long! I'll be back with the week one report before you know it.