Eyes of the Guru - Week 1

  Posted 9/9 by John Norton, Exclusive for Footballguys.com

Week one is finally here! The pre-season has answered a lot of questions for us but as always, has left us continuing to speculate about many situations. There will undoubtedly be many surprises in week one but this is what I have seen and or expect going in.    

Atlanta Falcons
Jamaal Anderson did nothing during the pre-season to increase his stock. In fact he was virtually invisible. Rookie Lawrence Sidbury on the other hand, was able to turn some heads. He didn't show great consistency and did his best work against backup talent, but the club seems on the verge of finally admitting that Anderson is a bust and moving on. Sidbury saw some work with the first team during camp and the pre-season and is a player we should be keeping an eye on... It was no secret that the Falcons were looking to upgrade the corner position, so the trade for Ty Hill shouldn't have been a big surprise. He has both talent and starting experience which should make him a contender for a starting job once he has become acquainted with the scheme.

New Orleans Saints
The big news here is that the Saints will have both Charles Grant and Will Smith for at least a week before they begin serving their suspensions. Apparently the NFL smartly elected to hold off on the suspensions pending the outcome of the Williams court ruling. It wouldn't be very fair for one club to loose players while another doesn't. The bottom line here is that these guys are all but certain to miss 4 games at some point and it may happen as soon as week 2. Play them while you can but be prepared. One way you might go about doing that is to pick up Anthony Hargrove or Bobby McCray. McCray is a known commodity. He's a solid backup who rushes the passer pretty well but has proven to be a marginal starter. Hargrove on the other hand, not only has potential as a fill in but has some long term upside. When the suspensions come down Hargrove will have an opportunity to prove himself a starting quality NFL end. There is no doubt he will be highly motivated to do so and from what he has shown thus far in '09, he could be very successful. For the long term the Saints are looking to use Hargrove as a backup DE while working him into the DT rotation on passing downs.

Carolina Panthers
Jon Beason says he will play in week one but how well he gets around on the sore knee could be a different story. If he suits up this is a guy most of us have to start. That said, we have seen guys play through this kind of injury in the past and it has killed their productivity. DeMeco Ryans comes to mind. If you are loaded at LB it might be a good idea to give a healthy backup the nod until we see just how well Beason gets around. The Eagles are not a traditionally great match up for linebackers anyway. One guy who may benefit greatly if Beason is not 100% is SS Chris Harris. I am amazed at how little love this guy has received this year. He has gone undrafted in many leagues which goes to show how short our memories are. In 2007 Harris was the #1 DB in most leagues. He opened last season with 9 solo stops and a forced fumble in week one before being injured, and then played with a bad shoulder the rest of the way, finishing with 10 solo stops in week 16 and another 10 against Arizona in the playoffs. If this guy is still available in your league I strongly suggest sneaking him onto your roster before he plays a game. He could be a big surprise.

Indianapolis Colts
Bob Sanders was activated from the PUP list but is still expected to miss the first 5-6 games of the season. They activated him so he can participate in practice while he rehabs. Melvin Bullitt has proven to be very productive when he gets on the field and will get the call to start the season. Grab Bullitt now and don't be in too big a hurry to throw him back the first time Sanders plays. History tells us Sanders won't last long. I expect Bullitt to start 11-12 games this year... In a move that was somewhat of a surprise, the Colts named Tyjuan Hagler their starting SLB over Phillip Wheeler. Barring an injury to Gary Brackett or Clint Session, this news doesn't have a lot of fantasy impact unless you are in a very deep drafted league, but Colts strong side backers have had marginal (backup) value for us in the past. 

Houston Texans
Anyone looking for short term help at LB should have Zach Diles high on their wish list. He was undrafted in many leagues, especially those that drafted early, but his stock shot up when it was announced that he would start at WLB and remain on the field in the nickel packages. The reason I say short term is that eventually Brian Cushing is going to be an every down linebacker here, but there is no guarantee that it will happen this year. At worst Diles should make for quality depth in leagues that start 3 LBs and he has the potential to post starters numbers often. 

Jacksonville Jaguars
With Sean Considine and Gerald Alexander as their only options at SS its no wonder the Jags are rumored to have interest in Brian Russell. The problem being that if they eventually add him they will then have 3 backups and still no starters. The best option Jacksonville had at the position was Brian Williams who was playing well at SS early last season before injuries forced him back to corner. With their situation at SS I'm still scratching my head and trying to understand the thought process that led to the release of Williams. Now the club is short a starting safety AND a starting corner. Derek Cox and Scott Starks are the two considerations for the vacant corner job. Cox is a rookie so the rookie corner rule could be in play if he gets the call. Starks is a 5th year career backup. Nothing to get excited about there.

Oakland Raiders
Kirk Morrison owners can breath a sigh of relief with the news that he will indeed remain the starting MLB. It seems that after all the noise about a changing of the guard at linebacker, the coaching staff has come to believe that the Raiders struggles versus the run had more to do with the front four. Keep in mind however, that Morrison is in the final year of his rookie contract. If the club wants to keep him next year they will have to pony up some cash. If they elect not to go that rout they have seen that Ricky Brown is a very good option. The song remains the same at LB but Oakland will have a much different look up front. Providing of course that Richard Seymour reports. As of Wednesday afternoon that had not happened as Seymour has expressed his desire for a new contract. At this point it is very questionable that he will be in uniform for week one. The Raiders believe the run stuffing former 3-4 end will go a long way toward solidifying a very leaky rush defense. Seymour is expected to line up at right end opposite Greg Ellis on base downs and then slide inside to pair with Tommy Kelly in passing situations, allowing last year's rookie sack leader Trevor Scott to get on the field in the nickel package. It remains to be seen who will have the most fantasy value of this trio. Seymour is not a great pass rusher but should lead the group in tackles. Ellis is the best every down end of the group but is 34 years old and hasn't held an every down role for a couple of years. There is some risk that he may wear down late in games or later in the season. Scott has the most upside but probably won't be on the field enough, at least early in the season. A wait and see approach may be the best option here.

San Diego Chargers
Kevin Burnett has won the starting job a weak ILB and even more importantly, is playing on every down. I won't predict that he will out produce Stephen Cooper this year but there is certainly a lot of potential here. Burnett could be a huge steal and is a guy you should try to sneak onto your roster if you have room or a need at LB.

Kansas City Chiefs
Zach Thomas should have retired before last season so it was not a shock when he was released. It looks as if the Chiefs will open the season with Corey Mays as their starter at strong ILB. This is an interesting turn of events but don't get too excited about Mays. He looked OK during the pre-season but spent most of his time blowing up blockers so that Derrick Johnson or his supposed backup Demorrio Williams could make plays. Until Wednesday Johnson was the hands down favorite to lead the Chiefs in tackles this year, that may or may not have changed. The Chiefs have supposedly demoted Johnson and promoted Williams to starter. The question being, is this for real or is this a motivational ploy like the Dwayne Bowe demotion early in the pre-season? It's awfully late to be playing head games, so with that in mind, this is my take. For starters I have never been a fan of Johnson, so unlike some of my esteemed peers, I would not be shocked (or unhappy) if this proves to be serious. Williams started the third and 4th pre-season games. In the third one he finished with a mark of 9-1 and in the 4th he played very sparingly just like a real starter in the final warm up game. When I saw the numbers from that third contest I decided to DVR the NFLN replay and see what was up. What I saw surprised me. Williams looked very good in the weak ILB role. He made some very nice plays, made his way through traffic well and seemed to be a natural fit in the scheme. My initial though was that maybe he had finally landed in a spot that best fits his skills. Even then it never dawned on me that the coaches might be thinking the same thing. Its hard to say if this is for real but where there is smoke there is fire and Williams stock is smokin' big time at the moment... One move that caught most of the IDP world by surprise was the release of Bernard Pollard. We have known for a couple of years that he was probably not the long term answer but Pollard held onto the starting job late into the off-season. The question now becomes, who steps in at this very target rich position? Mike Brown started the final pre-season game but it was DaJuan Morgan who posted the impressive 7 tackles and a pick. Until that performance neither Brown nor Morgan had stood out during the pre-season. If I were going to take a chance on either of these guys I would go with Morgan simply because Brown won't stay healthy for long. That said, Brown will likely get the call in week 1.  

San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers announced a few weeks ago that Justin Smith would work as a full time DE this year. The pre-season bares out this fact as well. Without the OLB snaps that he has received in the past, Smith may fall well short of expectations. If he's on your roster don't get too excited just yet but don't be slow to react if he doesn't produce early on. Shawntae Spencer has been announced as the starting corner opposite Nate Clements. Spencer posted 74 tackles, 4 picks and a top 10 ranking at corner in 15 games back in '05. He hasn't been able to stay healthy since that year but if he can remain on the field Spencer could be a solid option for corner required leagues.

St. Louis Rams
Leonard Little was expected to take on an every down role again this season but the soon to be 35 year old is already battling nagging injuries. He may be best suited as a situational pass rusher at this stage of his career... The injury to Adam Carriker was a big blow to the Rams but could mean a lot of playing time for both James Hall and Victor Adeyanju. Hall will now likely see more snaps at tackle, especially on passing downs, which will in turn allow Adeyanju more opportunity at end. Especially if Little struggles. Don't overlook the fact that Adeyanju posted 40 solo stops a year ago... James Butler never posted big numbers with the Giants but that was a much different situation. In St. Louis he is no longer sharing time and he doesn't have a stellar front seven sucking up all the opportunity. Butler was pretty impressive during the pre-season and I believe he could be in line for a break out year. At the least he should poach a few plays from O.J. Atogwe in the running game.   

Seattle Seahawks
With the release of Brian Russell, Jordan Babineaux moves into the starting lineup at FS. Like Russell, Babineaux is a marginal NFL starter so don't expect any more from him than his predecessor. The interesting news here is the late addition of Lawyer Milloy who was supposedly signed to add depth. Don't be surprised in a couple of weeks when Milloy joins Babineaux as the starting safeties. Even at age 36 Milloy may well be the best safety on a Seattle team that has been suspect if not plain weak at the position for a long time. It remains to be seen how productive he can be in this situation but Milloy has posted 72 or more solo stops every year since 2005. 

Washington Redskins
It was amazing to see how far London Fletcher fell in some of my drafts this season. You would think that he is over the hill just because he fell short of 100 solo tackles for the first time in four years. Guys... 96 solo stops is not all that bad. With a match up against the Giants in week one Fletcher has a great shot at being the fantasy game's defensive player of the week. The match up also bodes well for a healthy Rocky McIntosh who could be a sneaky strong play in week one. 

Philadelphia Eagles
Omar Gaither gets the call at MLB for the Eagles but temper your expectations here. we have seen Gaither in this role in the past and he proved to be no better than a marginal third starter or decent backup. Look for Akeem Jordan to pick up a few extra tackles from the WLB position but expect Quintin Mikell owners to be the main beneficiary of the Stewart Bradley injury... For all of training camp and the pre-season everyone was wondering if or when Sean Jones would overtake Quintin Demps at FS. The Eagles threw us a curve on Wednesday when they announced that rookie Victor Harris had leapfrogged into the starting role. Even Brian Dawkins was never a great tackle producer but the Eagles rely on their FS position to provide a lot of big plays. Harris is a guy we need to watch this week... Another situation we need to keep tabs on here is the DE position opposite Trent Cole. Juqua Parker is still officially listed as the starter but you can bet that the Philly defensive staff hasn't overlooked the fact that Darren Howard led the club in sack a season ago. Howard will see time at tackle on some passing downs but could work his way into the game a lot more often in '09.  

Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys have been looking for help at safety over the past couple of years and the Bengals were obliged to help out by releasing Marvin White. White's quite camp and pre-season with the Bengals was very likely a direct result of the knee injury he suffered late last season. Being a Bengals season ticket holder as I am, I was shocked and a little distraught to see them let go of yet another quality young player. After they let Madieu Williams go last year I should be used to moves like this. White may not be completely healthy just yet but don't be surprised when he claims the starting SS job for this club and becomes a very productive fantasy option at some point this season.  

New York Jets
Bart Scott got all the fan fair and attention at the Jets ILB position this off-season but it was David Harris who caught my eye with a strong pre-season. The first team defense didn't play a lot but when they did Harris was flying around the field making plays everywhere, including the opponents backfield. Scott was solid but Harris looked like a man with something to prove. If this carries over into the regular season Harris will be the Jets #1 IDP option. He went undrafted in some leagues I have seen so take a look at your free agent list and see if he is there, then be ready to move if he has a strong week one.  

Miami Dolphins
Pre-season numbers as well as the eyeball test suggest that despite working from the FS position, Gibril Wilson could out produce Yeremiah Bell. At the very least Wilson has shown that he will continue to be productive in his new situation.  

New England Patriots
The more moves the Patriots make the more obvious it becomes that they are moving toward a 4-3 scheme. Just look at the personnel involved. Richard Seymour and Ty Warren are a pair of excellent 3-4 ends. They are only average or slightly above as pass rushers but are exceptional run stuffers who require double teams in the run game. Seymour is out and Derrick Burgess is in. Burgess who is less stout versus the run but (when healthy and happy) is an excellent every down 4-3 end who once led the league in sacks. Opposite Burgess the club can use Warren on early downs and bring in Jarvis Green, who is also a quality 4-3 end, to rush the passer. That leaves them Vince Wilfork and second round pick Ron Brace to stuff the run from the tackle positions. Anyone who thinks Burgess is suddenly going to start playing OLB at this stage in his career is kidding themselves. Jerod Mayo at MLB, Gary Guyton at WLB and Adalius Thomas at a very familiar SLB, look out! There will still be a sprinkling of 3-4 and how all this pans out in the box scores is something we won't know until next week, but it's coming. The writing is on the wall.

Buffalo Bills
Bryan Scott has laid claim to the Bills SS job and it looks as if he will have a busy season. I loved the comparison Rich Eisen made on Total Access last night when he compared the Bills to a house with all the windows closed and the gas turned on. Just wait until someone lights a match. The offense has struggled and will continue to do so, which means the defense will be on the field a lot. Scott had solid numbers last season and should pick up right where he left off. Best of all, he went undrafted in many leagues... The Bills still have no solution at DE opposite Schobel so we will see DE by committee until the club finally plugs Aaron Maybin in full time. Hopefully that will happen sooner rather than later. 

Cincinnati Bengals
I guess we should give the Bengals a little credit, at least they are going to get Rey Maualuga in the lineup, even if it is at SLB. I can't help but remember when the Bears started Brian Urlacher at SLB for the first three games of his rookie season. Just about the time owners were giving up and letting him go, they moved him inside where he belonged and the rest is history. Will the Bengals be smart enough to make that move? Well at least he's starting. The moral of this story is this, if you drafted Maualuga and he doesn't come out of the gate like gangbusters, be patient as long as you can. Miracles do happen... With the release of Marvin White the Bengals are down to three guys at safety. Roy Williams will start at SS and be an every down player. He didn't look all that good at times during the pre-season but looked very good at others. I'm unsure what to expect here but have to say I'm optimistic. Chris Crocker missed a lot of time late in the pre-season which gave Chinedum Ndukwe an opportunity to shine at FS. Crocker is still listed as the starter on the depth chart but he's not a lock to remain there. Especially if the injury keeps him out for a game or two... Keep an eye on rookie Michael Johnson. Antwan Odom is already banged up and Johnson could get the call as an every down end right from the start.

Pittsburgh Steelers
Keyaron Fox will get the start at ILB for the injured Lawrence Timmons. Timmons is out of the walking boot and the club hopes that with the long week he will be able to go in week two. The ankle injury brings up a red flag with Timmons however. This is not the first time such an injury has been a problem for him. You may remember that a similar injury slowed his progress as a rookie. Fox is a more than adequate backup who has been productive pretty much whenever given a change to do so. It may be a couple of weeks before Timmons returns and even then the risk of re-injury is high with a bad ankle. Like it or not we may be seeing a lot of Fox this season. 

Green Bay Packers
As expected Nick Barnett will be in the week one lineup at the more productive weak ILB position. He should be a great fit and could return to the top 15 this season. A.J. Hawk however, seems to be headed in the other direction in a hurry. He has not taken to the 3-4 scheme and has looked tentative or even lost at times. Hawk has been such a disappointment that he's already been removed from the nickel packages in favor of Brandon Chillar and the coaching staff is rumored to be considering benching him all together in favor of Desmond Bishop. If you can still get anything for Hawk you had better move know, it's only going to get worse. 

That's all I have for this week. Best of luck in week 1.