IDP Upgrades - Week 7
Updated 10/19 by Aaron Rudnicki, Exclusive for Footballguys.com
Upgrades
DE Andre Carter, WAS
After a slow start, Carter is one of the hottest players in the league. Coming off a 5 solo, 2.5 sack game last week against the Panthers, he followed that up with another monster performance against the Chiefs. Carter was credited with 7 solo tackles, 2 sacks, and a pass defensed. The Eagles come to town next week and they just gave up 6 sacks to the Raiders so it looks like Carter may be able to keep this multi-sack streak going for another week. The Redskins may be struggling as a team, but Carter is doing everything he can to turn things around.
DE Julius Peppers, CAR
Peppers has a reputation for being one of the best pass rushers and playmakers in the league. He didn't show much in the first few games of the year, but he has turned things around in a big way the past two weeks. After collecting 4 solo stops and sacks a week ago, he improved on those numbers this week with 7 solo tackles, 2 sacks, and a forced fumble against the Buccaneers. With a matchup against the Bills coming up next week, he's a strong bet to keep the hot streak going.
DE Charles Johnson, CAR
Johnson quietly recorded 6 sacks a year ago playing opposite Julius Peppers and he got off to a very slow start this year with just 2 solo tackles and 2 assists in his first 4 games with 0 sacks. With a matchup against the inexperienced and mobile Josh Johnson this week, however, he responded with the best game of his career. Johnson was credited with 3 solo tackles and an assist along with 2 sacks and 2 forced fumbles. Johnson has been splitting snaps with Tyler Brayton and Everette Brown as part of a rotation, but he can also line up inside and a game like this should earn him more playing time.
DE Richard Seymour, OAK
The honeymoon for Seymour seemed to wear off quickly after his huge game in the season opener. After recording 6 combined tackles and 2 sacks in the opener, he was credited with just 13 combined tackles and 0 sacks in his next 4 games. The Raiders defense turned up the heat on the Eagles this week as they were credited with 6 sacks and 8 QB hits overall. Seymour was the catalyst as he finished the game with 4 solo tackles, 2 sacks, 3 QB hits, a forced fumble and a pass defensed. There's enough talent on the Raiders defensive line with players like Greg Ellis, Trevor Scott, and Tommy Kelly that this type of performance shouldn't be that difficult for Seymour to replicate.
DE Greg (Stylez) White, TB
After showing up in the downgrades section here last week, White deserves a huge upgrade this week as he figures to see a huge increase in playing time thanks to the trade of Gaines Adams to the Bears late last week. The Buccaneers seemed to keep Adams in the lineup as much as possible to try and justify drafting him with the #4 pick overall, but now that he is gone that temptation is no longer there. White figures to see the bulk of snaps at the RDE position going forward and he showed what he's capable of with a huge 8 solo tackle game this week that also included a sack and 2 QB hits. He limped off the field with an undisclosed injury but it wasn't expected to be serious.
DT Kevin Williams, MIN
Williams recorded a sack in the season opening win over the Browns, but was credited with just 3 solo tackles and 3 assists in his next three games combined. For one of the best playmaking defensive tackles in the league, that had to be considered a disappointment for fantasy owners. Well, he can be a streaky player and it looks like things have definitely turned around. After racking up 3 solo tackles, a sack, and a pass defensed last week against the Rams, he followed up with an even better game against the Ravens this week. Williams finished the game with 3 solo tackles and an assist while also adding 2 sacks and a forced fumble. He now has 4 sacks in 6 games and is on pace for his first double digit sack season since 2004.
LB Julian Peterson, DET
The Lions had to be disappointed with the type of production they were seeing from Julian Peterson in the first few weeks of the season, but he had started to slowly turn things around before exploding against the Packers this week. Unfortunately, the effort game in a shutout loss but Peterson at least was able to take advantage of a favorable matchup. He finished the game with 6 solo tackles, 4 assists, 2.5 sacks, and 2 forced fumbles. The Lions have a bye next week but he has another solid matchup coming in week 8 when the Rams visit Detroit.
LB Brian Cushing, HOU
Even though fellow rookie linebackers Aaron Curry and James Laurinaitis have received more attention from fantasy owners, Cushing had been having a very solid season before breaking through with a huge game against the Bengals this week. Cushing was all over the field and finished the game with 9 tackles (6 solos), but the more impressive aspect was his big hitting (2 forced fumbles) and great play in coverage (1 INT, 2 PDs). He is already a complete football player and looks like a very reliable everyweek starter.
LB Lawrence Timmons, PIT
Many expected huge things from Timmons this year once he took over the ILB spot next to James Farrior and assumed the role of everydown player. He hit a bit of a speed bump due to a preseason injury, but now that he's fully healthy he is starting to show what all the hype was about. Over his last two games, Timmons has collected 10 solo tackles, 2 assists, 3 sacks, and 2 forced fumbles. While he lacks the size typically associated with 3-4 ILBs, he makes up for it with incredible speed and quickness. Timmons recorded 5 sacks as a part-time player a year ago and could be a very special player if he is able to stay on the field and put it all together.
LB David Harris, NYJ
Harris exploded onto the fantasy radar midway through the 2007 season, but his numbers and level of play dropped off in 2008. With a new coaching staff and scheme in place this year, however, he is back among the best fantasy linebackers in the league. He was all over the field in this week's overtime loss to the Bills, finishing with 7 solo tackles and 10 assists while also adding a half sack and another QB hit. Through 6 games, Harris has 35 solo tackles, 22 assists, and 2.5 sacks. If he could keep up the same pace over a 16-game season, he'd wind up with 93 solo tackles, 58 assists, and 6.5 sacks.
LB Paul Posluszny, BUF
Posluszny didn't quite live up to the high expectations that many had for him in 2008 but he entered 2009 with a lot more confidence and seemed headed for a breakout type of year. A broken arm in the season opener put those plans on hold but he came back earlier than expected and was able to play in this week's game against the Jets. He responded with a very steady 9 tackles (6 solos), but added a huge play when he intercepted Mark Sanchez in overtime. The Bills have been decimated by injuries and have had a hard time stopping the run so Posluszny figures to be on the field a lot. If he can stay healthy, he has a chance to put up some very nice tackle numbers the rest of the year. While he's not the quickest of players, he has decent range and anticipates plays very well so he should be able to add in a few more big plays as well.
LB Chase Blackburn, NYG
Blackburn filled in for Michael Boley in the season opener and posted 6 solo tackles, 2 assists, and a sack. Now that Boley is out for an extended period of time, Blackburn should get a chance to stick in the starting lineup for at least a few weeks in a row. Although the Giants lost to the Saints, Blackburn was very active in the game this week and finished with 8 solo stops, 3 assists, and a sack. While not known for his cover skills, Blackburn is a very active player who seems capable of collecting tackles in bunches. Worth a look if you need linebacker help during the upcoming bye weeks.
CB Jabari Greer, NO
Few people paid attention when Greer signed a free agent contract with the Saints this offseason but he has helped solidify a secondary that has been a weak spot for years. Greer was often overshadowed in Buffalo while playing with guys like Nate Clements and Terrence McGee, but he's a very good cover corner who appears to have been somewhat underrated as a tackler. Over his past 4 games, Greer has posted 23 tackles with at least 5 solos in each of them. With the Saints offense putting up so many points each week, teams are forced to throw and Greer has been up to the challenge with 8 passes defensed on the season along with an interception that he picked up this week. Right now, he's playing like a top-10 fantasy cornerback and it's his week to week consistency that has been the most impressive.
CB Leon Hall, CIN
The Bengals had been doing a great job of shutting down their opponents' top WR until they matched up with Andre Johnson this week. Part of the reason for why they have done so well is the play of corner Leon Hall. Hall was matched up with Johnson for much of the game this week and did a good job, but the Texans were creative on offense and found other ways to get him involved. Regardless, Hall was very active in the game and finished with a team-high 12 tackles (10 solos) while also adding a forced fumble and a pass defensed. Hall has been one of the better fantasy corners in the league over the past two years and with 23 solo tackles over the past 4 games, he's not far off from joining the elite at his position.
CB Bradley Fletcher, STL
The Rams selected Fletcher with the 2nd pick of the 3rd round in the 2009 draft and he had been getting more and more playing time before finally getting his first start this week against the Jaguars. He responded with a very solid 7 solo tackles and it looks like he could be in the starting lineup to stay. As a rookie corner, he will almost certainly be picked on by opposing QBs, but that's obviously not a bad thing for IDP owners. Fletcher has struggled in coverage, but he's a big body who the Rams can use up in press coverage. Given where the team is these days, there's also a good chance they will let him learn on the job in the hopes that he'll be ready to make a bigger contribution next year.
S Tanard Jackson, TB
In just his second game back, Jackson made his presence felt with a huge interception return for a touchdown in the fourth quarter. He also added 4 solo tackles and a forced fumble. The Buccaneers were gouged by the Carolina running game this week but Jackson helped limit the Panthers to just 67 yards passing. He's probably not going to be a big source of tackles playing free safety in the Tampa defense, but he can still be an effective fantasy option in deeper leagues.
S Thomas DeCoud, ATL
Going into this season, the Falcons initially moved Erik Coleman to free safety to open up a spot for the rookie William Moore at strong safety. But, an injury to Moore and some strong play from DeCoud forced them to change their plans and DeCoud has been playing well enough to hold onto the job for the entire season. Although he usually lines up deep in the secondary, DeCoud has finished with 5 solo tackles in 3 of the games so far and he has been doing a good job of preventing big plays. He came through with two huge interceptions in the big win over the Bears on Sunday night and he figures to be tested quite a bit with matchups against the Cowboys and Saints coming up in the next two weeks.
S Jairus Byrd, BUF
When the Bills used their 2nd round pick to draft Jairus Byrd out of Oregon, they envisioned him providing a much-needed playmaking presence to their secondary. He missed most of the preseason while recovering from an injury, but he has been forced into the lineup earlier than expected thanks to a string of injuries to players like Bryan Scott and Donte Whitner. All he has done is come through with 3 interceptions in his last two games, including two big plays against his fellow Pac-10 rookie Mark Sanchez this week. Byrd played corner in college so he brings great speed and cover skills to the safety spot and he has some of the best ball skills on the team. Don't look for him to provide big tackle numbers, but he's also playing well enough that the Bills will have to think twice about removing him from the lineup.
Downgrades
DE Antwan Odom, CIN
Odom had been enjoying a breakout season with 8 sacks in his first 4 games, but it all came to an end with a torn Achilles' tendon this week. He had surgery on Monday to repair the tendon and was placed on injured reserve, effectively ending his season. This should create some additional opportunities for the rookie Michael Johnson who has yet to record a sack this year.
DE Will Smith, NO
Smith got off to a very slow start this year with just 2 solo tackles and 2 assists in his first two games, but he seemed to turn things around in weeks 3 and 4 when he collected 2.5 sacks and a handful of tackles. Coming out of the bye week against a strong running team like the Giants, however, he managed just a single solo tackle. In fact, his tackle numbers are the main reason why he has been a disappointment this year. Apart from the week 3 game against the Bills when he was credited with 4 solo tackles, Smith has finished with exactly 1 solo tackles in the other four games. Tough to rely on a defensive end with those types of tackle numbers, especially when he's not putting consistent pressure on opposing QBs.
DE Ray Edwards, MIN
Edwards was limited in practice last week with a hamstring injury but he was listed as probable on the injury report and was in the starting lineup. Unfortunately, very little changed in relation to his production as Edwards finished with just a single solo tackle. Over his last four games, Edwards has posted just 6 solo tackles and 1 assist with 0 sacks. The Vikings need to get more production out of this position given how dominant Jared Allen has been on the other side.
DE Gaines Adams, CHI
Despite a strong game against the Redskins in week 4, the Buccaneers decided to give up on Gaines Adams and shipped him off to the Bears for a 2nd round pick in next year's draft. Adams has looked soft at times and has not been able to live up to the high expectations that come with being a top-5 overall draft pick. Perhaps playing under Bears DL coach Rod Marinelli will help turn his career around but for now it looks like Adams will be little more than a pass rush specialist in Chicago. However, the contract of Adewale Ogunleye expires after this year so there's a chance that Adams could emerge as a full-time starter next season.
DT Kris Jenkins, NYJ
While Darrel Revis has garnered plenty of attention for his strong play this year, there might not be a more important player to the Jets defense than Kris Jenkins. His fantasy value is not quite the game, but the Jets and fantasy owners alike will have to do without him for the rest of the year as he suffered a torn ACL this week and will be placed on injured reserve. This likely means that the Jets defense will have a harder time getting off the field so it could lead to upgrades for some of the linebackers and safeties.
LB AJ Hawk, GB
The steady decline of AJ Hawk's fantasy value continues as he followed up a 2 solo, 2 assist game against the Vikings in week 4 with a 0 solo, 0 assist game this week against the Lions. With the Packers getting out to an early lead, the Packers shifted to their nickel package for much of the game and Hawk does not normally play in certain passing situations. He might still have some decent games from time to time as he did against the Rams in week 3, but until he becomes a full-time player it will be difficult to rely on him as a fantasy starter unless you are really desperate.
LB Zach Diles, HOU
Although Diles beat out Xavier Adibi for the starting WLB job this preseason, his production and value have taken a huge hit due to the emergence of Brian Cushing as an everydown player. Diles has been credited with just 14 solo tackles and 3 assists through 6 games, including just a single assisted tackle in this week's win over the Bengals. Unless there is an injury to DeMeco Ryans or Cushing, Diles is unlikely to turn things around anytime soon.
LB Lofa Tatupu, SEA
Initial reports on Sunday night indicated that Tatupu was going to be done for the season with a torn pectoral muscle, but the news on Monday was much more positive. Apparently, the MRI revealed only a partial tear and the team is holding out hope that he may be able to return after a few weeks of rest. Look for David Hawthorne to fill in at MLB while he's out.
LB Adalius Thomas, NE
As bad as things had been going for Thomas, few expected them to get this bad. He was apparently a healthy scratch in the win over the Titans this week as the coaches decided to bench him due to concerns about his performance. Belichick said it was just a one-week move but it sounds like he could lose his starting job for good if his play doesn't improve soon.
LB Jonathan Vilma, NO
While most of the news coming out of New Orleans has been positive this year, especially about their defense, Vilma has not been putting up the type of numbers many expected from him. Despite a great matchup against the Giants this week, he only managed 1 solo tackle and 3 assists. He also cost his team a touchdown as he was flagged for roughing the passer on a play where Darren Sharper picked off a pass and ran it in for a touchdown. Through 5 games this year, Vilma has only been credited with 17 solo tackles, 9 assists, and 1 sack (which came in the season opener). There is still enough time for him to turn things around, but for some reason he doesn't seem to be all that comfortable playing in Gregg Williams' defense.
CB Antoine Winfield, MIN
Winfield started the game against the Ravens this week but was knocked out of the game with a sprained foot in the second quarter and wound up being shut out on the stat sheet. He had a strong start to the season but only managed 2 solo tackles in last week's game against the Rams and now it looks like he could miss next week's game against the Steelers. Winfield has been one of the most consistent IDP options in the league but this seems like the type of injury that might limit his effectiveness if it doesn't heal quickly.
CB Brian Williams, ATL
Williams was a late addition for the Falcons but he quickly emerged as a starter in Atlanta thanks to his familiarity with Mike Smith's schemes. Unfortunately, his season came to an end when he tore his ACL in the Sunday night win over the Bears. He'll be placed on injured reserve and likely replaced by Brent Grimes or Chevis Jackson in the starting lineup.
CB Charles Woodson, GB
Woodson has an amazing start to the season with 15 solo tackles and 3 interceptions in weeks 2 and 3, but he has just 5 solo tackles and 0 interceptions in the two games since then. It seems that offenses are starting to throw away from his side of the field more often, which is creating more opportunities for Al Harris.
S Michael Johnson, NYG
Johnson started the game for the Giants against the Saints this week but finished with just 2 assisted tackles. It wasn't necessarily because he played poorly, but rather because his fellow safety CC Brown played so bad that the Saints couldn't help but try to attack him any chance they got. As a result, Brown finished the game with an amazing 12 solo tackles, 1 assist, and 2 passes defensed. Brown is a complete liability in coverage and it looks like he will probably be picked on as long as he remains in the lineup, which probably means a reduction in tackle and playmaking opportunities for Johnson. Aaron Rouse isn't likely to provide much of an upgrade as a cover safety either.