IDP Upgrades - Week 5
Updated 10/5 by Aaron Rudnicki, Exclusive for Footballguys.com
Upgrades
DE Robert Mathis, IND
The Colts took a 21-3 lead into halftime in their game against the Seahawks this week, which forced the Seahawks to abandon the run early and gave the Colts plenty of great opportunities to rush the passer. Robert Mathis was lined up primarily on the right side in place of Dwight Freeney and he took advantage of the Seahawks backup left tackle Brandon Frye, who was filling in for Walter Jones. Seneca Wallace is one of the most mobile quarterbacks in the league and he finished with some impressive numbers, but Mathis was in the backfield all game and finished with 3 sacks, 4 QB hits, and 2 forced fumbles to go along with 4 solos and 2 assists. Mathis now has 5 sacks and 3 forced fumbles in his last three games.
DE Adewale Ogunleye, CHI
The Bears scored 48 points in this game and the Lions quarterbacks combined for 47 pass attempts, which created a very favorable matchup for the Bears defensive linemen. While mostly matched up against a young tackle in Gosder Cherilius, Adewale Ogunleye took full advantage and finished the game with 4 solo tackles, 2.5 sacks, 3 QB hits, and a fumble recovery. Although Ogunleye finished with 62 combined tackles last season, his 5 sacks were a significant disappointment. Through just 4 games this year, he already has 4.5 sacks and 2 multi-sack games so it looks like the trade for Jay Cutler is having a very positive impact on his fantasy production.
DE Charles Grant, NO
After a dreadful start from both starting Saints defensive ends, they have completely turned things around the past two weeks. Charles Grant had just 2 solo tackles in the first two games but he has exploded with 7 solo tackles, 4 sacks, and a pass defensed in his last two games. Through 4 games, he already has more sacks this season than he did in each of the past two seasons and he has a good chance to reach double digit sacks for the first time since 2004. Grant has always been a strong run defender and reliable source of tackles, but if he can also emerge as a consistent pass rusher in Gregg Williams' new aggressive Saints defense, he could wind up as one of the biggest IDP steals of the year.
DE Gaines Adams, TB
Adams had been a huge bust during the first three weeks of the season and he was limited in practice this week while trying to recover from a groin injury. He came through with the type of game that IDP owners had been expecting to see from him on a consistent basis this year, however, and deserves an upgrade for that alone. Adams finished the game with 4 solos, 1 assist, and 1 sack while also contributing a QB hit, a fumble recovery, and a pass defensed. He appears to be the only consistent pass rush threat on the Bucs defense, which could make it tough for him to have the big breakout season that he's capable of but a few more efforts like this would certainly help reassure dynasty owners that holding onto him will pay off eventually.
DE James Hall, STL
Hall started at RDE in place of Chris Long and was one of the only bright spots for the Rams in the game. He finished tied with MLB James Laurinaitis for the team-lead in solo tackles with 6, and also added a sack and QB hit. While he may not be a very exciting option, Hall has been putting up some steady numbers with at least 3 solo tackles in every game thus far and a couple of sacks. The Rams defense is going to be on the field a lot and he will remain a big part of the rotation at DE, which could lead to better than expected numbers all season.
DT Tommy Kelly, OAK
Despite the addition of Richard Seymour, which seemed to energize the rest of the Raiders defensive line, Kelly had been a major disappointment through the first three games. He came into this week's matchup against the Texans with just 4 solo tackles and 2 assists, but wound up having one of the biggest games of his career. The Texans ran the ball 41 times but only averaged 2.9 yards per carry, thanks primarily to the play of Kelly who finished with a team-high 9 solo tackles and 4 assists. As one of the more athletic 3-technique DTs in the league, he certainly has the talent to be one of the most productive fantasy players at the position but there have been some questions about his motivation after he signed a huge free agent contract prior to the 2008 season. Playing next to Seymour may be the type of spark he needed to help turn things around.
DT Marcus Stroud, BUF
Stroud was a top-10 fantasy DT while playing for the Jaguars from 2002 to 2004 before his career was slightly derailed by injuries. He managed to play in all 16 games after a trade to the Bills last offseason, but his presence seemed to help Kyle Williams emerge as a better fantasy option. This year, however, Stroud is off to a great start with at least 4 solo tackles in every game and a couple of sacks. He ranks as the #1 fantasy DT in FBG-scoring through four weeks and is certainly worthy of a pickup in DT-required leagues if he's still available. The Bills offense is struggling right now, which should lead to plenty of tackle opportunities for the Bills defense.
OLB Cameron Wake, MIA
After signing from the CFL, where he was a 2-time defensive player of the year, Wake was expected to compete for a starting OLB job opposite Joey Porter. The signing of Jason Taylor prevented that, but Wake got his first chance at extensive playing time this week while Porter sat out with a hamstring injury and he was a one-man wrecking crew. He abused replacement RT Kirk Chambers for most of the game and finished with 6 solo tackles, 3 sacks, 4 tackles for a loss, 2 QB hits, and a forced fumble. Taylor is 35 years old and may be close to retirement so Wake might not be a bad player to stash on your bench for the future, especially if you're in a sack-heavy scoring system.
ILB Bradie James, DAL
James enjoyed a breakout season in 2008 thanks primarily to his sack numbers as he was the only player in the league with 80 solo tackles and 8 sacks. Once he established himself as a regular part of the Cowboys nickel package, they started giving him a lot more blitz opportunities and he made the most of them with offenses normally keyed on players like DeMarcus Ware and Greg Ellis. Although he got off to a slow start this year with just 11 solo tackles and no sacks in the first three games, he seemed to turn a corner this week. James finished the game with 6 solos, 2 assists, 1 sack, 1 QB hit, and a fumble recovery. This type of production was standard for him down the stretch last season and he should be able to put up similar numbers going forward, particularly if Ware can snap out of his early season funk (0 sacks so far).
ILB DeAndre Levy, DET
Levy stepped in for an injured Ernie Sims in week 3 and drew plenty of praise from the coaching staff. Sims returned to the starting lineup this week but left again in the third quarter after aggravating a shoulder injury. Meanwhile, all Levy did was lead the team with 7 solo tackles and an assist. Although Sims is the higher-profile player, Levy has been more impressive at the WLB position this year and the coaches are going to have to find a way to get him on the field. Even if Sims is healthy, perhaps we'll see Levy start to steal carries from MLB Larry Foote or even SLB Julian Peterson. He's a versatile player who can do stuff the run and drop back in coverage and it looks like he'll be a key piece of the Lions defense at some point.
OLB Nick Roach, CHI
With Brian Urlacher on injured reserve for the year and his replacement Hunter Hillenmeyer out for the game with a rib injury, Nick Roach got the start at MLB this week and had a very strong all-around game. He finished with 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, and a sack while also adding 2 QB hits and a pass defensed. Hillenmeyer and SLB Pisa Tinoisamoa are expected to be back soon, but Roach has shown that he can be productive if they wind up missing any more time.
ILB Demorrio Williams, KC
Even though Derrick Johnson was healthy and participated fully in practice this week, Demorrio Williams continues to start and put up solid numbers. He led the Chiefs with 7 solo tackles this week, giving him 7 or more solo tackles in three of the first four games this season. Meanwhile, Derrick Johnson saw limited playing time and was shut out on the stat sheet. This is one of the biggest surprises of the season so far as Johnson was thought to be the Chiefs best linebacker but he's been buried on the depth chart behind unheralded layers like Williams and Corey Mays. There is clearly a lot of tackle potential here though so Williams looks like a solid option as long as he continues to start.
OLB Kamerion Wimbley, CLE
After a huge rookie season in 2006 that saw him finish with 11.5 sacks, Wimbley seemed to regress and only added 8 sacks in his next 32 games. With a new coaching staff and defense in place this year, however, he appears to have turned his career around. Wimbley is seeing a lot of playing time on a defense that is struggling to get off the field and he's making the most of it. He added 5 solos, 2 assists, a sack and a QB hit this week to give him 18 solo tackles and 3 sacks through four games. If he can keep that up that type of production all year, Wimbley could be a great waiver wire pickup for your fantasy team.
OLB Brian Orakpo, WAS
Orakpo got off to a terrible start as he tried to adjust to playing linebacker in the NFL after playing primarily as a pass rusher in college. He was credited with just 2 solo tackles in the first two games, but he has picked things up significantly with a sack in each of his last two games to go along with 8 solos and 3 assists. While he's probably not going to be a starter in most leagues, he's at least looking like a player who you can stash on your bench and plug in when injuries or bye weeks inevitably hit. Orakpo is clearly a talented athlete with the potential to make a big impact in sack-heavy scoring systems.
S Daren Sharper, NO
Although Sharper is one of the best playmaker of all time, his signing in New Orleans this offseason flew well under the radar because he only managed 1 interception with the Packers last year. He has been an ideal fit for the new Saints defense, however, and now has an incredible 5 interceptions through the first four games of the season. This week against rookie Mark Sanchez and the Jets, Sharper was credited with 5 solos, 3 assists, and 2 interceptions including a 99-yard return for a touchdown. Given the explosive Saints offense that will force opposing offenses to keep throwing the ball and an aggressive defense that is putting a lot more pressure on the quarterback, Sharper could certainly be headed for a season with double digit interceptions.
S Reed Doughty, WAS
The Redskins benched SS Chris Horton this week and replaced him in the lineup with Reed Doughty. All Doughty did was lead the team in tackles with 8 solo stops and 1 assist while also adding 2 more solo stops on special teams. Doughty has shown flashes of potential in the past but has had trouble staying healthy and consistent. He may not have the spot locked up as Chris Horton probably offers more potential as a playmaker, but Doughty is a steady presence and a very active run defender. Horton still saw regular action as the third safety in the game.
S Nedu Ndukwe, CIN
Most observers assumed that Ndukwe would hold onto the starting SS job in Cincinnati this year but he was beaten out by the veteran Roy Williams in the preseason. With Williams missing the game with an injury this week, Ndukwe got a chance to start and he wound up tying for the team lead with 7 solo stops while also adding an assisted tackle, a sack, and a QB hit. The biggest knock against Ndukwe is that he gives up some big plays, but he's also an excellent playmaker who can make a big impact playing up in the box as he did this week. If Williams winds up missing more time, perhaps that will create a big enough hole for Ndukwe to win his starting job back for good.
S Danieal Manning, CHI
Manning came into the year well under most people's radar as he was initially supposed to contribute as a nickel back and then he got injured in the preseason. The Bears wound up throwing everybody a curveball when they inserted the rookie Al Afalava into the starting lineup at SS, but it is Manning who has emerged as the breakout player early this season. Through four games, he has 28 solo tackles, which ranks first among all safeties in the league. He hasn't picked off a pass yet but has contributed a sack and a forced fumble.
S Gerald Alexander, JAX
With their normal starter Sean Considine recovering from a groin injury, the Jaguars turned to Gerald Alexander at strong safety this week and he had a very strong game. Alexander finished with 5 solo tackles, but also added an interception, a pass defensed, and a forced fumble. His play was so impressive that Jaguars.com writer Vic Ketchman called it "the best safety play I've seen the Jaguars get since I can't remember." The Jaguars gave him a game ball and it looks like he might be able to take over the strong safety position going forward. Alexander is more of a prototype at the strong safety position while Considine has never been known for his physical play.
CB Aqib Talib, TB
While Talib has had some rough moments early this season, he came through with an excellent performance against Jason Campbell and the Redskins this weekend. He finished the game with 4 solo tackles, 3 interceptions, and 3 passes defensed making him one of the biggest scorers in IDP leagues. While that type of production is not likely to be repeated again, it's still a good sign that this young player is starting to adjust to the speed of the game. Talib has good size and can be physical playing against the run or pass, but more big plays like this are what he needs to help separate himself from the large group of cornerbacks.
Downgrades
DE Trevor Scott, OAK
Trevor Scott enjoyed a very solid rookie season last year when he recorded 5 sacks, but he has seen a large reduction in playing time thanks to the offseason additions of Richard Seymour and Greg Ellis. Through four games, Scott has just 7 solo tackles and 4 of them came in the opener soon after Seymour reported. His best chance to see playing time is in passing situations but with the way the Raiders are playing on offense there isn't much of a need for offenses to try attacking them through the air.
DE Cory Redding, SEA
Seattle traded Julian Peterson for Cory Redding this offseason and inserted him into the starting lineup at LDE. It hasn't exactly worked out as expected thus far, however, as Redding has only been credited with 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, and 1 fumble recovery through four games. Not only did Redding see Lawrence Jackson start at LDE this week, but he was also kept off the stat sheet this week except for 1 QB hit on Peyton Manning. Seattle is still using a rotation on the defensive line but it looks like Jackson is the more reliable player to own.
DE Philip Merling, MIA
After a strong opener that saw him record 5 solo tackles and a sack, Merling has mostly been a non-factor in the games since then. He left the game early this week with what has been reported to be an ankle injury although the x-rays were apparently negative. Either way, Kendall Langford is looking like he might be the only Dolphins lineman who is worthy of rostering.
DE Chris Long, STL
While the entire Rams team is struggling so far this year, one of the bigger disappointments has to be Chris Long. As the #2 overall pick in last year's draft, he has some very high expectations to live up to. He showed flashes as a rookie but seemed to wear down late in the season. The hiring of Steve Spagnuolo as head coach was expected to be a great fit and lead to a big season for Long, but through four games he has yet to record a single sack and he was shut out this week after losing his starting spot to the veteran James Hall.
DE Tyson Jackson, KC
Many observers thought that Tyson Jackson was a reach as the third overall pick in the draft this year, but the Chiefs felt that he was an ideal fit to play DE in their new 3-4 defense. Jackson has been a starter for the Chiefs at LDE, but he has only collected 1 solo tackle through four games and it doesn't look like a big turnaround is coming anytime soon. He was credited with a QB hit in the game this week, but he's generally doing very little other than trying to occupy blockers.
DE Kyle Vanden Bosch, TEN
After joining the Titans in 2005, Vanden Bosch was one of the best and most consistent fantasy defensive ends in the league for the next three seasons. He struggled through sevearl injuries last year, however, and only managed 12 solo tackles and 4.5 sacks in 10 games played. There was optimism surrounding him coming into this season as he was healthy but he has basically picked up right where he left off with just 8 solo tackles and 0 sacks in his first four games. Vanden Bosch is going to turn 31 years old next month so he's not over the hill, but he's just not the dominant high energy pass rusher he used to be and it's starting to look like he may not get back to being that player again. He has a couple of tough matchups coming with the Colts and Patriots up next on the schedule so he might need to wait until week 8 after the bye to record his first sack of the season.
DE Justin Smith, SF
There were signs coming into the season that Smith was due for a big drop in his production as the new coaching staff in San Francisco planned to use him almost exclusively as a 3-4 DE rather than moving him around and giving him regular snaps as a standup outside linebacker. It seems like a strange way to use a high paid player who also led them in sacks last year, but the 49ers are playing well on defense so it must be working. It certainly isn't translating into fantasy production for Smith though as he has just 5 solo tackles and 0 sacks in his last 3 games after a strong opener against the Cardinals.
OLB Ernie Sims, DET
While the Lions are showing signs of life as a franchise, Sims is having trouble staying on the field. He missed the game in week 3 with a shoulder injury and then left this week's game against the Lions early after aggravating the same injury. He deserves credit for trying to play through the injury, but it looks like his replacement in the lineup DeAndre Levy has outplayed him the past two weeks so it might not be a bad idea for the Lions to sit Sims out for awhile to make sure he's fully healthy.
ILB Derrick Johnson, KC
This has been one of the biggest surprises so far this year as myself and many others thought Johnson was headed for a breakout season playing ILB in the Chiefs new 3-4 defense. Unfortunately, however, the new head coach Todd Haley isn't the type to start players based on name recognition and talent alone. Johnson has been hindered by some nagging injuries and has had trouble regaining the starting job since he was demoted in the preseason. For now, anyway, Demorrio Williams and Corey Mays are the starters inside and Johnson is seeing limited playing time. If he ever does get a chance to play as a 3-down linebacker again though, don't be surprised if he has a big impact as he is definitely a talented player with the range to make plays all over the field on a defense that will see plenty of tackle opportunities each week.
OLB Shawne Merriman, SD
The disappointing season for Merriman continues as he has now gone through four games without recording a single sack. He just doesn't look like the same explosive player he was prior to the knee injury that sidelined him in 2008 and the groin injury he's dealing with right now probably isn't helping matters either. It's still a disappointment that he hasn't been able to make much of an impact against the run either though as the Chargers could use a physical presence in the front seven after the loss of NT Jamal Williams.
OLB Adalius Thomas, NE
With the trades of Mike Vrabel and Richard Seymour this offseason, Adalius Thomas was expected to take on a bigger load when it comes to rushing the passer. Apart from a sack in the opener against the Bills, however, he has failed to bring down a QB. The injury to Jared Mayo also should have created more tackle opportunities for him but so far he has just 10 solo tackles through four games. He can still contribute in coverage and adds some unique versatility to the Patriots defense, but he's just not the same playmaker he is in New England that he used to be with the Ravens. His fantasy value appears to be the lowest it's been in years right now.
OLB Anthony Spencer, DAL
With Greg Ellis moving on to the Raiders this offseason, Spencer was supposed to be headed for a breakout season playing full-time snaps opposite DeMarcus Ware. With 0 sacks and just 7 solo tackles so far this year though, he has not looked impressive at all. That became even more apparent in the week 3 game against the Panthers when little-known Victor Butler broke through with a couple of sacks on national television. If Spencer continues to struggle, it seems like Butler might get a shot to replace him in passing situations. Regardless, with very few tackles and no sacks, Spencer has very little fantasy value right now.
ILB Channing Crowder, MIA
Coming off a breakout 2008 season that saw him register 92 solo tackles, Crowder has been a disappointment for fantasy owners so far this year. While he has never shown much in the way of big-play ability, he was at least considered to be a reliable source of tackles but he has just 11 solo tackles through four games. Hurting his value is the way the Dolphins have been controlling the ball on offense, creating fewer tackle opportunities for their defensive players.
S Gibril Wilson, MIA
Wilson has been one of the most productive safeties since entering the league in 2004, but he is off to a miserable start with the Dolphins this year. With Yeremiah Bell established as the starting strong safety, the Dolphins have been playing Wilson at free safety. His 16 solo tackles through 4 games are not terrible, but he has also missed a lot of tackles that have hurt the team and has yet to make a single big play. Wilson is probably a more natural fit playing up in the box as he's looked slow and been easily beaten playing out in space. It is possible that Wilson just needs time to get used to his new role.
S Gerald Sensabaugh, DAL
The Cowboys have been trying to solidify the safety position for years with limited success. Sensabaugh got off to a solid start this year with 8 solo tackles and 6 assists in the first two games, but he suffered a broken thumb in the game against the Broncos this week and underwent surgery to repair it. Initial reports speculated that he could miss up to a month of the season while recovering.
CB Cortland Finnegan, TEN
As one of the best fantasy corners in the league over the past couple seasons, Finnegan had a great start to the season with 9 solo tackles and an interception but it has been downhill since then. Finnegan was credited with just 7 solo tackles combined in his next two games and he was forced to sit out the game this week with a hamstring injury that could wind up bothering him all year. Meanwhile, the Titans are now sitting at 0-4 and they also lost Nick Harper with a rib injury this week.
CB Eric Wright, CLE
Wright was a top-20 fantasy corner last year as he finished the season with 61 solo tackles and 3 interceptions and he looked like the type of player who might be able to stick around for awhile. He doesn't appear to be a good fit for the new Browns defense, however, as he has been getting beat repeatedly and he's not making tackles either with just 8 solos through four games. Given how deep the corner position is, there almost certainly has to be some better options than him available on the waiver wire.