IDP Spotlight: CB Richard Marshall, Carolina Panthers

  Posted 8/6 by Bob Magaw - Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Marshall FINALLY assumes the eagerly anticipated starting role he has seemingly been destined for, ever since his incendiary 2006 rookie season. Almost inexplicably, if it weren't for HC John Fox's well known loyalty to veterans, he continued to be shackled to a reduced, situational role behind starting CBs Chris Gamble and Ken Lucas in 2007 and 2008 (despite frequently outplaying the since released Lucas). In 2009, the shackles come off.

Positives

• A superior, gifted athlete. Multifaceted skill array. Can run, hit, make plays on the ball, and always a threat to take it the distance after an INT.
• Capable of scoring for your IDP team via the tackle/assist, FF/FR, sack and INT columns, as well as (the occasional) TD. He ranked 7th in 2006 and 4th in 2007 in the CB rankings. In the first two of his three seasons of NFL tenure, he had a combined 2 sacks, 2 FFs, 4 FRs, 6 INTs and 26 PD.
• He already has an estimable body of work and resume in his short NFL career. More impressively, he has amassed numbers out-producing many starters around the league from a situational role, as a nickel CB. The 2009 season will be his first with the starting gig. As good as Marshall has been (and he has been very good), he could have massive upside given the increased snaps/opportunity.
• Some contextual causes for optimism include… the more established Chris Gamble starts opposite him, coming off a Pro Bowl caliber season (along with a lucrative contract extension)… in his first year as a starter, Marshall could be tested, at least initially… despite resentment harbored over his unresolved long term contract status, Julius Peppers signed his $16.7 million franchise tender and is a lock to play for the Panthers in 2009... one of the best DEs in the business, possibly playing for a record setting deal for a defensive player, he is eminently capable of wreaking serious havoc behind the LOS, which could cause opposing QBs to cough up a few extra INTs this season… also, the Panthers could be on the cusp of a shock and awe-type offense with the two-headed RB monster of DeAngelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart and game breaking WR Steve Smith, which could cause opponents to play catch up and throw an inordinate amount of times, potentially leading to boosted tackle, sack and INT opps across the board for Marshall.

Negatives

• While far from small or slow, some of the few chinks in the armor of his attributes/traits and skill set might be a lack of elite size (5'11", 190 lbs... still making him bigger than Antoine Winfield, for perspective), make up speed and coverage ability. This perhaps contributed to his dropping to the 2nd round in the 2006 Draft (as well as his Fresno State pedigree).
• Can be overly aggressive, undisciplined and bite on play action fakes at times, causing him to be out of position and compromise the integrity of the overall defense.
• Slumped to 29th among CBs last season (albeit in a part-time role, as noted above… but it was the same role in which he starred the two previous seasons).
• Additional causes for concern… Marshall could be more exposed on an island, and face better quality WRs on a weekly basis than he did as a nickel CB… Thomas Davis, who surged from 72 solos in 2007 to 92 solos in 2008 (and from 21st to 6th among OLBs), is an ascendant talent, and clearly hitting his stride at WLB after bouncing around from safety to SLB earlier in his career… brilliant third year MLB Jon Beason is already one of the top overall defensive players in the league (106/110 solos and finished 8th/3rd among ILBs in 2007 and 2008, respectively)… there could be a linkage between their emergence and the downtick in Marshall's numbers last season (not as much trash for him to clean up).
  

Final Thoughts

Most signs seem to point towards a colossal campaign for Marshall. The hope is that his slump last season ultimately proves more aberration than trend. In the absence of a clear explanation for his precipitous drop-off in 2008, however, it would be understandable if some prospective IDP owners temper their enthusiasm. That said, if he fulfills his formidable and at times spectacular early promise highlighted in bold relief as a part timer, his first crack at the starting gig puts him in line for a potentially epic season and awaiting stardom.

Quotes from the IDP Spotlight Message Thread

To view the entire thread, click here.

J Giles Band:
"Although he's never been a full time starter, Richard Marshall has been a FBGs favorite since I've been a reader. Two 80+ tackle, double figure PD, multiple INT & defensive TD scoring seasons couldn't help but provide optimism for what could be once he attained starter status.

• What's changed: Panthers release Ken Lucas, Marshall will start at CB opposite Chris Gamble
• Prediction: while his numbers as the Panthers nickel back are hard to ignore (especially his big play potential), for some reason I'm not convinced they will translate as anticipated as a starting CB. Expect him to be tested opposite Gamble in his first season as a full time starter, resulting in solid tackle opportunity. But don't be surprised if the big plays are less frequent than his history might suggest. The shine is off. A DB2 ceiling is probably his best case scenario. DB3 may be just as likely his finish, if not moreso."

bcr8f:
"I see him finishing among the top 5 at his position."

Anthony Borbely:
"Considering that Marshall was the nickel back in each of his three seasons, his tackle numbers have bordered on amazing. He has been in the top 25 in solo tackles among all DBs in all three seasons, including 2007 when he finished with 79 solos. What will he do playing every down? He has great ball skills and combined with some struggles in pass defense last year, Marshall will probably be tested a lot, especially early in the season. That can do nothing but increase his numbers across the board. Also, despite this being his 4th year, Marshall is still only 24 years old. There are still many people sleeping on Marshall and he is a great buy right now both in redraft and dynasty leagues. He is currently my #1 DB in both redraft and dynasty leagues."

Sigmund Bloom:
"My views on Marshall are well known. I expect a top 5 DB finish. He's hyperaggressive, both in coverage and in run support. He's got great instincts to jump routes (and even fake FGs - see preseason 2008), and once he gets the ball in his hands, he's looking to score a la Troy Polamalu or Ed Reed."

Projections

IDP Scoring System

• 1.5 pts per Solo Tackle
• 0.75 pts per Assisted Tackle
• 4 pts per Sack
• 4 pts per Forced Fumble
• 4 pts per Fumble Recovery
• 5 pts per Interception
• 1.5 pts per Pass Defensed
• 6 pts per Touchdown
• 2 pts per Safety