IDP Spotlight: Philadelphia Safeties

  Posted 8/19 by Jeff Pasquino - Exclusive to Footballguys.com

The Philadelphia Eagles have suffered several losses on defense since their appearance in the NFC Championship game in January. In just seven months, losses of all different kinds have happened, all of them appreciable changes from their 2008 team. Defensive coordinator Jim Johnson's loss in his battle with cancer was the biggest, bringing the entire game of football aspect to heart. Between the lines there were two others - most recently the loss of MLB Stewart Bradley to a torn ACL - but before training camp the talk of the defensive personnel was all about the secondary. Brian Dawkins is no longer an Eagle, and for the first time in roughly a decade he will not be patrolling the defensive backfield for Philadelphia. Two returning veterans are poised to battle for playing time with a highly regarded yet underrated third candidate that quietly signed a free agent deal. Let's take a look at all three individually.

Quintin Mikell is the odds-on favorite to step right in and be the starting strong safety for the Eagles. That makes the most sense, as Philadelphia's base defense uses both safeties interchangeably without having a distinct strong or free safety position. New defensive coordinator Sean McDermott has been with the Eagles a long time and he will be using the same style of defense as was implemented under Johnson, so solid fantasy numbers are to be expected from Mikell in Dawkins' former role.

Another Quintin (what are the odds of that?) is the second veteran from last season that will see a large amount of playing time in the Eagles' secondary this year. Quintin Demps was utilized as a nickel or dime cover corner in addition to playing some safety against three- and four-wide offenses against heavy passing teams like Arizona. Demps is a good cover guy and as such adds good versatility to the Philadelphia base defense. The Eagles can employ five or six defensive backs and either line up in man-to-man or a cover two or cover three scheme without having to change personnel. Demps was the clear favorite to start next to Mikell until another back was signed.

Entering the picture is Sean Jones, a formerly top rated safety from Cleveland that was a late free agent acquisition by the Eagles. Given Jones' Top 10 seasons in 2006 and 2007 with 140 combined solo tackles (and 67 more assists), big things could be a reasonable expectation should he be the starter. However, everything that I have heard, seen and read has said that Demps is ahead of Jones. From OTA reports to coach's comments to beat writers - they all agree that Demps is ahead. Recent comments from the coaches have seemingly contradicted that vote of confidence in Demps, so it remains to be seen if there will be a training camp battle between Demps and Jones to start opposite of Mikell.

Best Case Outlooks

• The departure of Brian Dawkins opens the door for Mikell to not only start full time but also shine as the top safety for the Eagles.
• The untimely loss of MLB Stewart Bradley could mean bigger numbers for the safeties as far as tackle opportunities.
• All three safeties are starter quality, and all of them could start for almost every other NFL franchise.
• The Eagles will face many pass-happy teams this year, and most teams are using three wideout packages quite often. With three versatile options at safety the Eagles will be ready for that challenge.

Worst Case Outlooks

• Switching from Cleveland after a disappointing 2008, Sean Jones has much to prove. His signing of a one year contract shows that he intends to put up big numbers to try and get a better deal in 2010, but playing time may be an issue.
• All three safeties are good, but Jones and Demps may be so comparable that neither get enough plays to put up adequate fantasy numbers.
  

Final Thoughts

Many football fans are touting the signing of Sean Jones and assuming that he will be the starter for 2009. I am and continue to go on record that I believe that Jones is behind Demps and will remain there until he proves he is not only more skilled than Demps but also a better fit for the Philadelphia defense than Demps. Jones fans do not want to really hear this argument, though. It is almost like there's this contingent of NFL fans who want Sean Jones to be a starter rather than just observing what is actually going on and taking that at face value.

While I do follow Philly closely, I'm not biased at all here. I like all 3 options at safety (plus rookie Victor Macho Harris) and I think Mikell, Jones and Demps combined make a very good safety corps.
Look at what the offseason tells us - Jones was on the market a long, long time and then he couldn't get a big deal. The Eagles got him for a veteran backup price of $3 Million - good value for sure but not necessarily guaranteed starter money.

The best players will always play in Philly, that's just what they do. Sean Jones got a home on a team that is a playoff franchise and he gets a 1-year deal to try and boost his 2010 value if he can make big plays and get meaningful playing time this season.

Both players are likely to see the field quite often (Demps, Jones) as Demps can also be a dime or even a nickel corner. Getting three safeties with one providing some CB-like coverage is a distinct advantage on third and long. I expect both to see 30-40 plays a game if not more and be on the field together at times - but Demps will be the starter if things don't change between now and opening day.

Quotes from the IDP Spotlight Message Thread

To view the entire thread, click here.

awesomeness:
"One thing that I don't understand is the notion that Sean Jones won't be starting by Week 1. I would be shocked if Sean Jones sits for Quentin Demps. If not by Week 1, I would be very surprised if Jones isn't starting for a significant majority of the season.

Sean Jones was ranked better coming out of high school, ranked better coming out of college, has NFL experience, has produced good/very good numbers throughout his 4 year NFL career, is a proven above average safety in the NFL.

I have a hard time seeing that player coming off the bench for a 4th round pick, 2nd year safety who made 18 tackles in his rookie season. The only advantage that Demps has over Jones that is obvious to me is that he has a better handle on the playbook. Once that advantage decreases in disparity, I think it will be Jones' job."

Zoomanji:
"Making Demps the starter in OTAs might just be an attempt to motivate Jones and keep him from assuming he's the starter just because they signed him. Again, I really see no way Demps beats Jones out unless Jones' knee is still tweaked."

Jeff Pasquino:
"I really don't understand this viewpoint. It is almost like there's this contingent of NFL fans who WANT Sean Jones to be a starter rather than just observing what is actually going on and taking that at face value.

While I do follow Philly closely, I'm not biased at all here. I like all 3 options at safety (plus Victor Macho Harris) and I think Mikell, Jones and Demps combined make a very good safety corps. Look at what the offseason tells us - Jones was on the market a long, long time and then he couldn't get a big deal. The Eagles got him for a veteran backup price of $3 Million - good value for sure but not necessarily guaranteed starter money.

The best players will always play in Philly, that's just what they do. Sean Jones got a home on a team that is a playoff franchise and he gets a 1-year deal to try and boost his 2010 value if he can make big plays and get meaningful playing time this season.

Both players are likely to see the field quite often (Demps, Jones) as Demps can also be a Dime or even a Nickel corner. Getting 3 safeties with one doing some CB-like coverage is a distinct advantage on third and long. I expect both to see 30-40 plays a game if not more and be on the field together at times - but Demps will be the starter if things don't change between now and opening day."

massraider:
"I agree on Jones. A monster year or two on a bad team, then he sits in FA forever, and gets a one-year 'prove it' deal? That was one of the more eyebrow-raising developments in free agency. There's obviously something in Jones' game that we don't know about, that NFL teams see, and it's a problem."

Larry Thomas:
"All Sean Jones owners need to be patient. With all due respect to Jeff, Demps should be ahead of Jones after OTAs, minicamp and going into training camp. His speed, athleticism and experience in the system surely makes him look superior in shorts. If Jones is going to win the starting gig, it will be when the pads come on in training camp and pre season. I'm one of those who feel Jones will win out at some point. My reasoning is experience, and Jones should give the Eagles more flexibility to interchange their safeties, something they like to do, or at least did like to do. We'll see what happens, but this will be fun to watch."

BearsFan:
"I just can't reconcile the deal Jones signed if he's not in line to start."

philly_battery_thrower:
"Not to state the obvious here, but numbers mean jack. I used to have Roy Williams (DAL, S) and Michael Lewis (PHI, S) on my IDP squad and they were consistently ranked in the top 10-15 DBs in the league (fantasy-wise). But obviously both had issues in their game that caused them to be shown the door. I agree with Jeff here - everything I've read (that includes media, blogs, and homer message boards) indicate that Demps is ahead of Jones. I'd be mildly surprised if Jones actually starts the season."

Projections

S Quintin Mikell

S Quintin Demps

S Sean Jones

IDP Scoring System

• 1.5 pts per Solo Tackle
• 0.75 pts per Assisted Tackle
• 4 pts per Sack
• 4 pts per Forced Fumble
• 4 pts per Fumble Recovery
• 5 pts per Interception
• 1.5 pts per Pass Defensed
• 6 pts per Touchdown
• 2 pts per Safety