IDP Spotlight: NY Jets Linebackers

  Posted 8/19 by Jene Bramel - Exclusive to Footballguys.com

The Jets front seven had plenty of experience with the 3-4 front under prior head coach Eric Mangini. Mangini wasn't nearly as multiple in his defensive playcalls as his mentor Bill Belichick can be and was less aggressive than the majority of his defensive counterparts over the past two seasons. Though he may work primarily out of a 3-4 front on base downs, new head coach Rex Ryan will bring a much different philosophy. He'll expand the defensive playcalling to include multiple fronts and he'll bring a calculated mix of aggressive blitzes and coverage behind.

The most asked question from IDP followers this offseason has been, "Who will fill the Ray Lewis role in New York?" It's a simple question, but there may not be a simple answer. The Baltimore linebackers - Lewis, new Jet Bart Scott, Terrell Suggs and former Raven Adalius Thomas - have been an extremely versatile group. Scott, Suggs and Thomas were well above-average pass rushers and coverage backers. Not only did Ryan move them around in blitz packages, all three could sometimes be found jamming wide receivers at the line of scrimmage or matching up against backs, tight ends or slot receivers in man or zone coverage. That allowed Lewis the freedom to roam behind what was usually a very good group of defensive linemen. The OLB group in New York can't match the versatility of the Raven linebackers, and it's likely that Ryan will be forced to put his linebackers in more traditional roles on base defensive downs.

It's not been confirmed by the team yet, but speculation and an educated guess from observation of play and scouting reports would suggest that Scott will play a roaming WLB/WILB role on base downs with David Harris filling the plugging MLB/SILB spot. If they're deployed traditionally, that would give both nearly equal opportunity to make plays. Since Harris has neither the ability to shed blocks nor the pursuit skill that Lewis has, Scott may have the slight edge on him in both the big play and tackle department. If Scott gets tasked with a lot of man coverage or zone blitz responsibility, his tackle numbers could suffer.

In short, there are enough variables that both ILBs have a wide range of expected production. Both players have 90+ solo potential and some big play expectation. Unfortunately, both also can reasonably be projected to less than 80 solos. This is a situation that must be watched closely as camp progresses and early this season for clues on how Ryan will use his ILBs. If you're drafting now, it's hard to draft Scott or Harris as a clear LB2 ahead of others in that deep tier.

The OLB situation is only a little less murky. Calvin Pace will be suspended for the first four games, but is the only reliable option among the group. Bryan Thomas has been inconsistent in pass rush and not reliable enough in the tackle columns to trust on most rosters. Vernon Gholston had some offseason hype after offseason comments from Ryan suggesting that his poor rookie season wasn't a sign of things to come. Gholston went on to disappoint again during OTAs and will have to be much improved in pads to make the most of his time starting in place of Pace.

Best Case Outlooks

• Scott plays the pursuit and coverage role well and racks up tackles and big plays
• Harris remains an every-down player and thrives in his run support role
• Pace fills an Adalius Thomas like role and puts up similar box score numbers

Worst Case Outlooks

• Ryan varies the responsibilities of the ILBs and neither distinguish themselves statistically
• Scott struggles to defend the run and his tackle numbers suffer
• Harris fails to hold up in the plugger role and becomes an inconsistent tackler
  

Final Thoughts

As camp begins, it's still unclear how and where Scott and Harris will be used. The early line would suggest that Scott will play more of a pursuit and coverage role, with Harris plugging the middle in run support. Neither look likely to play a role similar to that Ray Lewis played under Ryan, but Scott should see the better opportunity on paper if the roles break out that way consistently. Harris has enough talent to keep the tackle competition close, however, and the year-end stat lines are likely to be close. Both should be considered LB3 options with upside. Outside, it's best to avoid the Jet OLBs until Calvin Pace returns from suspension.

Quotes from the IDP Spotlight Message Thread

To view the entire thread, click here.

Jene Bramel:
"I think the ILB pair here is even more difficult to project than the GB ILB pair. I'm convinced one or both of these players will have LB2+ value, but I can't convincingly argue in favor of either. Bart Scott is talented and versatile, but it's unclear whether he was overshadowed by the collective in Baltimore and Ray Lewis specifically or if he does everything well but doesn't transfer his talent to the boxscore. David Harris has had huge statistical runs, but isn't a dynamic talent and may not have the range or coverage skill to produce with an improved surrounding cast. For now, there's enough to suggest that Scott will be put in a better position to succeed and he's certain to play every down. That's enough to carry the day for me, but I'd hesitate to declare him a clear top 20 player until we see what happens in camp."

Kool-Aid Larry:
"Harris was largely a superstud in his first year due to a couple things --- 5 sacks in the second half of the year, and a very memorable first 2 games as a starter where he was in on 17 and 24 tackles against BUF and WAS. The remainder of the year he did very well in tackles, but I think those first couple games are what made the impression in everybody's mind. I don't recall the details on the BUF game, but I think he had about double normal opportunity in the WAS game. I'd be interested to see his opportunity in '07 vs '08, and I'd imagine '09 would probably stack up favorably in that dept.

'07 and '08 were nearly identical in terms of plays faced by the defense at 1020 and 1016, although I should go back later and break out the games he actually started. The biggest difference was in pass attempts faced, with only 470 in '07, but a whopping increase of 102, for 572 in '08.

Getting 5 sacks in roughly a half season from an inside linebacker is pretty huge, so I'd want to look at his role in Ryan's defense and how his counterpart was used in Baltimore. That might be a stat that bounces back from a disappointing '08 in a more aggressive '09 defense.

I thought I'd check out his '08 season a little more in depth, and found out that weeks 8 and 17 he barely played. So, if we take his remaining 9 games and extrapolate those out to a full 16 game season, we'd get 89 solos and 39 assists. That's not bad, although he put up pretty much goose eggs in all other stats -- that's kind of a killer."

Projections

ILB David Harris

ILB Bart Scott

IDP Scoring System

• 1.5 pts per Solo Tackle
• 0.75 pts per Assisted Tackle
• 4 pts per Sack
• 4 pts per Forced Fumble
• 4 pts per Fumble Recovery
• 5 pts per Interception
• 1.5 pts per Pass Defensed
• 6 pts per Touchdown
• 2 pts per Safety