IDP Spotlight: Miami Dolphins Safeties

  Posted 8/13 by Jene Bramel - Exclusive to Footballguys.com

IDP observers weren't at all happy with the offseason developments in the Miami secondary. Shortly before the free agency period began, the Dolphins agreed to big money contracts with Yeremiah Bell and Gibril Wilson, who had been unceremoniously dumped by Oakland earlier in the week. Both Bell and Wilson had restored the faith of the IDP community in the stud safety in 2008, with Bell putting up 100 solos and Wilson 96 of his own in addition to plenty of coverage stats. Instead of locks to be in the top three of every legitimate safety rank list this summer, both quickly fell into a murky discussion of how each would affect the other's production.

Even without the merging of the two studs in one secondary, it would have been unlikely to see both top 90 solos again in 2009. It is also worth noting that plenty of teams have had two highly productive players in the secondary and three highly productive players in the back seven. In fact, the Dolphins spread 254 solos among Channing Crowder, Renaldo Hill and Bell last season, an average of nearly 85 each. Expecting either safety to repeat their monster seasons of a year ago or fall into mediocrity due to competition could both be rightfully called extreme positions.

Entering camp, it appears that Bell will continue in the same role from last season, with Wilson playing more of a coverage role. Both players have been above-average in run support, though questionable in coverage, though, and an interchangeable role may eventually become the usual alignment on base downs. Regardless of their roles, both will benefit from playing behind a group of linebackers that isn't likely to rack up tackles in pursuit. Both players should see above-average tackle opportunity.

Both players could survive a 25% drop in production and still near or exceed 75 solo tackles. Both players have established a history of getting to the ball and forcing big plays. Given the uncertainty throughout the defensive back tiers this season, both still deserve consideration as top tier defensive back options.

Best Case Outlooks

• Bell remains a true strong safety and in a strong position to make tackles
• Wilson sees more in-the-box snaps than expected and adds big plays

Worst Case Outlooks

• The Dolphins use both players in an interchangeable role and depress the tackle opportunity for all
• The Dolphin defense improves enough to provide less opportunity and compounds the competition issue
• The Dolphins use more Cover-2 to protect their rookie corners and neither player gets much time in the box
  

Final Thoughts

Though we don't yet know how the Dolphins will deploy Bell and Wilson in their revamped secondary, it's too soon to throw both onto the scrap heap of free agents in new roles that kill their prior value. Both players may not be elite NFL talent, but both have proven that they can get to the ball and make plays. The added competition limits the upside of both players, but doesn't ensure that both cannot have DB2 or better value. In fact, if Bell reprises his 2008 role in this defense, 80+ solos and a top five finish is well within reach. Wilson may have more trouble racking up enough tackles, but he's likely to do better than Renaldo Hill did last year and possesses solid big play ability. He looks to be slightly more risky, but still has enough upside to be considered within the deep tier of low DB1 - mid DB2 prospects.

Quotes from the IDP Spotlight Message Thread

To view the entire thread, click here.

therokie0070:
"I got Bell last year and thought I landed the top DB for this year, and then Miami picked up Wilson! I think Bell will still put up good numbers, but not the 120 tackles I was counting on."

Aaron Rudnicki:
"Since Bell is not much of a playmaker with only 1 career interception, it makes more sense for the Dolphins to use him closer to the line while Wilson (13 INTs over past 5 years) can help solidify things in the deep secondary. I expect both players to be active tacklers and finish among the best in the league at their position, but both will also hurt each other's numbers compared to last season when they had less competition. Joey Porter provides great pressure up front and the return of Jason Taylor should also provide some help on passing downs. I think Wilson is the more talented and thus reliable player of the two, but all things being equal I'd rather have the strong safety so it's hard to drop Bell outside of the top-5 safeties."

Projections

S Yeremiah Bell

S Gibril Wilson

IDP Scoring System

• 1.5 pts per Solo Tackle
• 0.75 pts per Assisted Tackle
• 4 pts per Sack
• 4 pts per Forced Fumble
• 4 pts per Fumble Recovery
• 5 pts per Interception
• 1.5 pts per Pass Defensed
• 6 pts per Touchdown
• 2 pts per Safety