IDP Spotlight: DE Julius Peppers, Carolina Panthers

  Posted 8/6 by Bob Magaw - Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Peppers is somewhat of a polarizing and divisive figure. A consensus as one of the top athletes in the NFL (and probably in professional sports, period), he has had a Jekyll and Hyde past two years… following up a career worst 2007 season with a career best in 2008. Let's cut to the chase as to the somewhat competing/conflicting respective causes for (mostly) optimism and pessimism, cited below.

Positives

• Any synoptic overview of his constellation of positive traits and attributes must begin with the fact that Peppers is a freakish physical specimen and prodigy with elite size (6'5" 285), strength, speed (4.6) and explosiveness measurables for his position, with the requisite frame and monstrously long arms of a prototypical DE. Few, if any NFL players, at any position on either side of the ball, have superior athleticism to the protean, multifaceted array of skills possessed by Peppers. He was sixth man on a good North Carolina basketball team, with potential NBA-caliber talent if he had dedicated himself exclusively to the hardwood (seemingly destined, as his name Julius Frazier Peppers was a hoops great conjunction originating from Julius Erving and Walt Frazier).
• Entering the league as a highly touted prospect (second overall in the 2002 draft pedigree, and the best Tar Heel since Lawrence Taylor), he has for the most part fulfilled his formidable potential. He has four campaigns with 10+ sacks (just missing a fifth with a 9.5 sack season) out of his seven years of tenure in Carolina, and is coming off a career high of 14.5 sacks in 2008. Not JUST a sack artist, Peppers is an impact two way defender, who shows up in run support (averaging 40 solo tackles over his career) and is also a big play machine (combined 20 FFs past six seasons).
• Very durable. Aside from a four game suspension served during his rookie season, he has only missed three contests in his six other seasons in the NFL. Still in his prime (doesn't turn 30 until January of 2010, at which time the Panthers hope to be advancing deeper into the playoffs than last season).
• Expect him to be strongly motivated to produce at an extremely high level, as he plays for a potential 2010 free agent contract that could reward him as one of the highest paid overall players in league history (slotted to make $16.7 million this year in what will almost certainly be his last as the Panthers designated franchise player).

Negatives

• Not many.
• Peppers has been hit-and-miss at times, suffering from bouts of maddening inconsistency during the course of his NFL career. Not just in the year-to-year sense, but also in game-to-game terms. Besides a few clunker-type seasons, he has been plagued by unproductive stretches even during some of his best campaigns.
• Carolina has lost quality DL like DT Kris Jenkins (trade) and DE Mike Rucker (retirement) in recent years, with inexperienced, unproven young DEs Charles Johnson (3rd round - '07) and Everette Brown (2nd round - '09, but at the cost of a 2010 1st) being counted on heavily to replace the latter. On the other hand, that didn't hurt as recently as his career best campaign last season.
• His heart, passion and intrinsic motivation for greatness have been questioned at times (especially after his catastrophic, disastrous 2007 season), perhaps unjustly, when viewed in the context of the totality of his achievements and accomplishments as a pro. The rationale of this criticism is presumably rooted in the belief that with his quasi-superhuman physical traits, athleticism, talent, skills and ability, he should dominate more often.
  

Final Thoughts

To recap and sum up, there are a few pros and cons to weigh in a thorough and systematic cost/benefit analysis of the price of owning/acquiring Peppers in a dynasty league, or selecting him as high as will generally be needed to secure him for redraft purposes.

Countering and mitigating the admitted negatives of his inconsistency and the recent attrition and depletion of experienced DL surrounding talent are arguably even more positives in the final reckoning. Peppers is still in his prime. He answered questions about his horrific, nightmarish 2007 season with a resoundingly successful career best 2008 campaign… with the same supporting cast on defense returning virtually intact (and key ex-nickel CB Richard Marshall a clear upgrade in place of the declining and since departed former starting CB Ken Lucas). Plus there could be an Albert Haynesworth-like $100 million payday on the line.

In a parting thought, and in what represents a footnote to the litany of individual superlatives above, there are some team-based and oriented causes for optimism in Peppers 2009 projection. The Panthers frightening two-headed RB monster of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart has the aggregate talent and skills to comprise one of the most devastatingly explosive and lethal one-two punches in league history. Add Steve Smith, one of the best and most dangerous (especially to Lucas) WRs in the game, and the Panthers could be scoring in bunches and getting a lead early and often in the upcoming season. That could be a nearly unfair advantage for a pass rushing weapon and playmaking force the caliber and stature of Peppers.

The confluence and preponderance of positive trends above suggests a favorable forecast for Peppers as the 2009 season rapidly approaches. For longer range dynasty league considerations, there remain somewhat troubling questions potentially looming about post-bank breaking contract motivation (as they do with Haynesworth's high risk/reward acquisition and contract), as well as the inherent uncertainty shrouding his ultimate destination, possibly landing in a less scoring-friendly 3-4 scheme in the very near future.

Quotes from the IDP Spotlight Message Thread

To view the entire thread, click here.

Choke:
"Peppers has a very solid history with some bumps along the way. This will be considered a contract year, but some uneasiness persists for him in Carolina. I don't expect him to chase any records, but I don't doubt he plays well enough to possibly get a huge pay day in 2010. He is 29 and turns 30 in January."

pnewtonjr:
"Peppers is a tough one to call this year. Even though he's in a contract year, I don't see him in the top 5 of the DL this year again. He's just too erratic and has never posted back to back double digit sack seasons. I'll put him about 15 by the end of the year."

Jene Bramel:
"There's no science behind it, but I believe the career highs and improved game-to-game consistency from Peppers last season were in large part motivated by the prospect of a big contract. That motivation is back again after Peppers signed a franchise tender without a long term deal clearly on the horizon. A motivated and healthy Peppers is a monster. The only potential blemish is his relatively weak run support totals over the past two seasons.

I like to look at a simple metric like solos less sacks to get some idea of how much an end contributes as run support. Generally speaking, the stud two way ends have an SLS number of 30+, with some pushing 40 or more.

Peppers SLS numbers since his rookie season:

• 2002 17
• 2003 32
• 2004 42
• 2005 28.5
• 2006 36
• 2007 28
• 2008 25.5

Fairly solid numbers, but certainly nothing special. I think he's begun to take plays off at times, which hurts his pursuit numbers. I don't think there's anything specific in his skill set or scheme that would limit his run support potential. I think a 50 solo season isn't out of the question for him. However, if we didn't see it during a contract year that should've provided plenty of motivation, I don't think it's coming."

J Giles Band:
"I'm in agreement with Jene that the career highs and improved game-to-game consistency from Peppers last season were in large part motivated by the prospect of a big contract. That said, I would add the move to DRE likely played a role as well. Regardless a 15 sack, 5 forced fumble season is elite by any standard.

• What's changed: Peppers requests to be traded... Peppers drops his trade request and signs franchise tender... as of this writing Peppers indicates he's willing to consider a long term deal with the Panthers
• Prediction: working on the assumption that a long term deal won't be reached, Peppers should be plenty motivated again in 2009. His inconsistency (especially in the tackle department) will again be frustrating to his owners, but the big play sack bonanzas should remain. Expect Peppers to remain a DL1, albeit an inconsistent one. His fluctuation will continue and he is not without risk. His DL1 status may be more tenuous than most. A DL2/DL3 year would not come as a complete surprise."

Sigmund Bloom:
"I've built an IDP dynasty team or two around Peppers, and wow is he frustrating. Hot and cold from game to game, hot and cold within a game. I think that the contract motivation theory is a decent one, but I'm a little worried about Carolina's schedule. Last year, five of Peppers 14.5 sacks, and three of his five forced fumbles, came against bottom dwellers Oakland and Detroit. No such luck in the schedule this year, in fact the Panthers get the AFC and NFC East + Minnesota and Arizona when they aren't playing divisional foes. I still have him ranked very highly (top 5) because of the talent, but expect things like the total goose egg he put up against Denver in week 15, which is sort of important in fantasy football terms as weeks go. Peppers is only two years removed from a season when Paul Spicer and Stylez White were better options than him (finished as DE27), and if the team struggles, his production could fall to something closest to that disaster of a year than his DE3 season from last year."

Projections

IDP Scoring System

• 1.5 pts per Solo Tackle
• 0.75 pts per Assisted Tackle
• 4 pts per Sack
• 4 pts per Forced Fumble
• 4 pts per Fumble Recovery
• 5 pts per Interception
• 1.5 pts per Pass Defensed
• 6 pts per Touchdown
• 2 pts per Safety