IDP Spotlight: Green Bay Linebackers

  Posted 8/13 by Jene Bramel - Exclusive to Footballguys.com

The offseason was full of developments for the Green Bay linebackers. Rumors that head coach Mike McCarthy wanted to install a new defensive front were quickly confirmed when the team hired longtime 3-4 proponent Dom Capers as defensive coordinator. The dominoes began falling soon afterwards. Aaron Kampman, one of the better all-around 4-3 defensive ends in the league, was moved to OLB. Nick Barnett and A.J. Hawk were installed as the starting inside linebackers, but will flip defensive responsibilities, with Hawk playing more of a run-stopping MLB-like role while Barnett assumes more of a flow-to-the-ball, coverage weak side linebacker-like role. The Packers completed the overhaul by drafting versatile USC product Clay Matthews in the first round to groom at the other OLB spot.

The transition hasn't been smooth. Kampman isn't pleased with his new role. Matthews may be behind second year player Jeremy Thompson, himself transitioning from defensive end. And Barnett is still recovering from an ACL injury suffered late in the 2008 season and may not be ready to practice at the start of camp. With every player in a new role in a new scheme and almost every projected starter having issues, projecting this group's 2009 value hasn't been an easy exercise this offseason.

Kampman's value will be tied to his positional designation. Currently slated to play LOLB, Kampman is strong enough in run support to put up above-average tackle numbers for an OLB. In the end, though, he'll rush the quarterback on enough plays that his tackle numbers will be driven by his sack output. If he can match the pass rush numbers he put up as a defensive end, he should be able to hold LB3 or better value in balanced scoring systems. If he can be rostered as a DL in your league, his numbers will likely be good enough to provide DL1 value again this year.

Generally speaking, the ILB positions are about equal in expected tackle value in Capers' zone blitz heavy 3-4. Hawk's LILB role will force him to fight off more blockers, but may also provide him some added big play opportunity. Shedding blockers hasn't been a strong suit of Hawk's, however, and he may not be consistently productive until the second half of the year, when the front seven becomes more comfortable in the new scheme. Barnett should be able to flow to the ball more easily than Hawk at RILB and may add some additional coverage stats to his line. After missing OTAs and coming off an injury that he may not fully recover from until 2010, though, Barnett isn't a slam dunk to be the better ILB value either.

Clay Matthews' value is the easiest to project. Though he's likely to be a solid and versatile NFL player in time, he's still raw, will have to learn 3-4 OLB responsibilities and earn playing time over Thompson, who's been impressive during OTAs. It's very unlikely that Matthews will hold any value, even in big play scoring systems, in 2009.

Best Case Outlooks

• Hawk sheds blocks well and thrives as a pass rusher in the zone blitz
• Barnett fully recovers and takes advantage of his flow to the ball role
• Kampman sets aside his disappointment and hits double digit sacks

Worst Case Outlooks

• Hawk gets washed out of plays often and struggles to make tackles
• Barnett isn't recovered from his ACL injury and can't elude blockers
• Kampman flops as a pass rusher from a two point stance
  

Final Thoughts

New roles in a new scheme will likely make for a slow transition for every Packer linebacker this season. Kampman, Hawk and Barnett may all eventually fit into their new roles, but it may take until midseason for them to feel comfortable and consistently produce, even in the best case scenario. Be careful before reaching for any of them as an anchor for your lineup. Expect Hawk and Barnett to be solid, though frustrating, LB3s with upside if either thrive in their new role by year's end. Unless you can be assured that Kampman will be classified as a DL in your league, he's even riskier than his ILB mates except in the heaviest of big play scoring systems. It's unlikely that Matthews or Thompson will prove roster-worthy in any league.

Quotes from the IDP Spotlight Message Thread

To view the entire thread, click here.

Jene Bramel:
"Get the right side of this one and you'll have found big value for your lineup. Unfortunately, there are significant question marks everywhere. Barnett may have a slightly more favorable tackle role, but he's coming off a knee injury. Hawk moves inside and will have to shed blockers much better than he has in prior seasons to rack up tackles. Kampman isn't pleased with his new role and faces the uphill climb that all 3-4 OLB face to put up numbers. And Clay Matthews is struggling to earn reps with the first team, with Jeremy Thompson pushing for playing time. I'm backing Barnett narrowly over Hawk for now, and have tempered expectations for Kampman."

trader jake:
"I think the coaching staff is going to allow Hawk more Seau-like freedom to go with his instincts a bit more and using him as a blitzer more often. I think the real value with Kampman is adding him midseason from a disgruntled owner in hopes that he ends up in a 4-3 scheme in 2010 as a defensive lineman again."

bcr8f:
"Right now Barnett says he's healthy and Raji has been practicing at LDE, so if he stays there that should help Barnett."

bigal0303:
"Barnett is definitely the go to player at the linebacker spot. A.J. Hawk will definitely be having more freedom at what he wants to do and play as more of a rover backer. Kampman could get up to 15 sacks if the scoring is there from the offense."

Qtip Callahan:
"Barnett was struggling with tackles (and any big plays) before his injury last season. The 3-4 just opens up more questions in my eyes, along with him returning from injury. Someone is going to have to step up and make plays and Barnett is probably the best bet, but I'm still a bit leery and would be careful on where I drafted him."

Projections

ILB Nick Barnett

ILB A.J. Hawk

OLB Aaron Kampman

IDP Scoring System

• 1.5 pts per Solo Tackle
• 0.75 pts per Assisted Tackle
• 4 pts per Sack
• 4 pts per Forced Fumble
• 4 pts per Fumble Recovery
• 5 pts per Interception
• 1.5 pts per Pass Defensed
• 6 pts per Touchdown
• 2 pts per Safety