IDP Spotlight: S Eric Weddle, San Diego Chargers

  Posted 8/6 by Aaron Rudnicki - Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Eric Weddle enjoyed a breakout season in 2008 and quickly established himself as one of the most productive fantasy IDPs in the league. He led all DBs with 105 solo tackles during the regular season - never finishing with less than 3 - and then added 15 more in 2 playoff games. Although Weddle certainly benefited from some favorable circumstances last year, he is a very talented player who deserves to be considered among the best at his position.

While in college at Utah, Eric Weddle became a starter right away and demonstrated his versatility by playing equally well at both cornerback and strong safety. He was a 2-time conference defensive player of the year and a prolific playmaker, finishing his college career with 10 sacks, 9 forced fumbles, 6 fumble recoveries, 18 interceptions, and 3 defensive TDs.

The Chargers gave up a lot to trade up and select Weddle in the 2007 draft as they parted with 2 3rd round picks to move up about 25 spots in round two. There was some initial uncertainty over what his natural position would be in the NFL. He started out as a backup strong safety, but earned regular playing time as part of the team's dime package and on special teams. He made the most of his limited playing time, finishing with 42 solo tackles while also contributing a sack and an INT. In 2008, he earned the starting free safety job and led the team in tackles with 127.

Part of the reason for Weddle's amazing tackle numbers last year was the weak pass defense of the Chargers. They allowed nearly 26 completions per game, which was the most in the league by far. The absence of Shawne Merriman weakened their pass rush and their defensive takeaways dropped from a league-leading 46 in 2007 down to just 26 in 2008. A down year from Tomlinson hurt their rushing attack but the offense still ranked 2nd in points/game on the strength of their passing attack. That forced other teams to pass frequently as they tried to keep up and kept Weddle very busy in most weeks.

Positives

• Weddle is an excellent athlete with a tremendous burst who can chase down plays all over the field.
• Versatility: Has the size and strength needed to play strong safety along with the speed and agility to play corner if needed.
• Combines great natural instincts with a tireless work ethic and is always one of the most prepared players on the field.
• Return of Shawne Merriman and addition of Larry English should provide a big upgrade to the pass rush and provide Weddle with many more interception opportunities this year.

Negatives

• Although Weddle was a great playmaker in college, he has just 2 interceptions and 11 PDs in 31 games played and needs to become more of a big-play threat to truly become an elite fantasy option.
• Due to the return of Shawne Merriman, expected improvement from the running game, and just normal regression to the mean, the Chargers are unlikely to face so many pass attempts again this year.
• The team should have a full season with Stephen Cooper at one ILB spot this year and Kevin Burnett should provide an upgrade at the other. Improved overall play from the ILB spots will further limit Weddle's tackle opportunities.
• SS Clinton Hart struggled last year and may be replaced by rookie Kevin Ellison, who appears ideally suited to play up in the box in a traditional SS role. Meanwhile, Weddle is likely to see most of his time playing deep in the secondary where he has fewer opportunities to come up and make plays in run support.
  

Final Thoughts

While it is almost a certainty that Weddle's tackle numbers will regress this season, there is also a very good chance that his big play numbers will also improve. Many young defensive backs take some time to adjust to the NFL before they become consistent playmakers. Weddle has already proven to be a very reliable tackler with a great knack for being around the ball. With slightly quicker reaction times and better play from those around him, he could certainly wind up among the top-5 fantasy safeties again this year.

Quotes from the IDP Spotlight Message Thread

To view the entire thread, click here.

Choke:
"Not the biggest Weddle believer. The back and forth among Charger safeties the past several years has been maddening. I think he was very fortunate because of the terrible ILB play SD had last year as well as missing Merriman badly. With Merriman back and English added to the mix, I expect the Chargers defense will spend less time on the field and the inside will be less exposed due to the returning strength outside. If the corners are actually healthy (Cromartie) then this could be another hit. Tomlinson being healthy could be another hit to the overall tackle chances. His best bet for continued success is for the ILB on the Chargers to remain a void. If they show up, his numbers get crippled.

Almost all the staffers have him as top 3 and I just cant project him there. I don't see 100+ solos tackles again. Or 137 total. He had no big plays."

Macgyver:
Weddle seems like the consummate professional who makes up for his lack of measurables with heart, preparation, and intelligence. Plain and simple, he's a football player who is always around the ball and never takes a play off. I'm also placing a high value on character here as there's also a piece of mind you have with owning Eric Weddle versus the constant anxiety you have owning guys like Brandon Marshall, or Marshawn Lynch. Weddle will not hold out of camp, he will not get arrested, he will not show up out of shape, and he will constantly work on his craft to get better every day.

As tackle opportunities are an extremely important stat in forecasting performance, it's safe to say that Weddle's tackle opportunities will most likely be lower with Merriman and company back. Therefore I believe there will be a drop in Weddle's solo tackles. With his motor however, I personally see an increase in assists. Also, having a full year as a starter under his belt, Weddle's the type of guy that can draw on that experience and should be able to think less about the system and react a little faster causing more big plays.

Not many people will argue that Weddle is more valuable in tackle heavy leagues than big play leagues. I'm a believer that this year, he will be a great option in big play leagues as well."

pnewtonjr:
"For much the same reasons as stated above (he's going to have less opportunities for tackles this year), my projections for Weddle are about the same as has already been said, although I do agree that with the added pass rush SD should have this year his big play numbers should increase a bit:"

Jene Bramel:
"There's a statistical argument here that suggests that even if you believe that Weddle's numbers drop significantly with Stephen Cooper there for a full season, the expected improvement in pass rush and possibly at RILB and elsewhere in the secondary, there's room for Weddle to still be productive. The question is how much do you think the numbers will drop. Drop Weddle's numbers by 20% from last season and he's still an 80 solo tackle player. That's very often good enough to finish in the top five.

Unfortunately, the same argument could have been made for a guy like Jonathan Vilma once upon a time. I think there are two primary questions to ask yourself with Weddle this year. First, will the RILB and SS positions be improved enough to steal some pursuit tackle opportunities from Weddle? Even one tackle a game is significant. Second, how much of Weddle's production in 2008 derived from an unusually high percentage of pass completions within the Charger tackle opportunity? With the potential for an improved pass rush dropping the total snaps and a natural regression toward norms in run-pass distribution opportunity, Weddle's numbers may easily drop more than 20%.

For now, Kevin Burnett, Clinton Hart and Shawne Merriman all remain sizable question marks. Weddle is a fundamentally solid, rangy player. I think he's more likely to finish with 80 solos than 65, which keeps him in the top five with the current DB group so full of question marks. However, it's very hard to project another 90+ solo season here."

Sigmund Bloom:
"I outlined my problems with Weddle in my ranking comments:

• San Diego faced 605 passing attempts vs. 408 rushing attempts last year - artificially inflating Weddle's tackle numbers
• Whether it's Clinton Hart or Kevin Ellison at strong safety, Eric Weddle is going to have to handle deep coverage responsibilities
• For all of the pass attempts against and tackle opps Weddle had, he only had 1 INT, 1 FR, and 5 PD
• Weddle is not a quick twitch guy and has to play very far from the line of scrimmage to be able to defend the deep pass.
• He's not a powerful SS and not a ballhawking FS, so I think he could eventually become a player without a home position.

I would definitely let someone else make Weddle the cornerstone of their secondary in IDP leagues this year."

Larry Thomas:
"As was already noted, Weddle faced a lot of pass attempts. SD gave up a league-leading 25.7 completions per game, six more than the league average (19.7), and 4.6 more than they did in '07. The Chargers could see a large number of pass attempts faced again this year, but expect the completions to come down to the 20-21 range. In 2007, the San Diego defense was mid pack in tackle ops with 49.8 per game (the same as the league average) and the Charger LBs led the league in total tackles and solos, while no defensive back topped 70 solos. LB play is most likely the key here, but Weddle should still finish with solid numbers."

Projections

IDP Scoring System

• 1.5 pts per Solo Tackle
• 0.75 pts per Assisted Tackle
• 4 pts per Sack
• 4 pts per Forced Fumble
• 4 pts per Fumble Recovery
• 5 pts per Interception
• 1.5 pts per Pass Defensed
• 6 pts per Touchdown
• 2 pts per Safety